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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21534083 times)
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March 16, 2015, 06:59:04 AM

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March 16, 2015, 07:04:11 AM

Winklevoss twins speaking about Bitcoin at SXSW tomorrow in Texas, surprised no one has mentioned this. I didn't even know about it until my wife told me that she's going to watch.

I assumed that most people here also read the /r/bitcoinmarkets daily trading thread. Anyways we had some discussion on this yesterday:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2z3b2d/daily_discussion_sunday_march_15_2015/cpfgylz

There are a lot of skeptics that this alone will be the spark to lead to the next rally (I'm talking about their exchange). It's an overestimated aspect if you want my opinion. Besides there were a lot of other bullish news that the market didn't even care for. The ETF on the other hand...  Roll Eyes

the exchange itself shouldn't move the market at first but I expect that the potential announcement of it being "sponsored" by X major US bank will give us a lift.

This. If somehow they will be able to establish an "i/o" through the fiat world, this will be the catalyst towards the biggest rally so far. Yet though, there's also another bank in the EU that plays that role (Fidor Bank) but no significant CCMF yet. Maybe because the EU BTC infrastructure is a lot smaller than the USA's one.

I'm confident though, that the twins are on the right track for a perfect rally. We'll see.
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March 16, 2015, 07:12:10 AM

Winklevoss twins speaking about Bitcoin at SXSW tomorrow in Texas, surprised no one has mentioned this. I didn't even know about it until my wife told me that she's going to watch.

I assumed that most people here also read the /r/bitcoinmarkets daily trading thread. Anyways we had some discussion on this yesterday:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2z3b2d/daily_discussion_sunday_march_15_2015/cpfgylz

There are a lot of skeptics that this alone will be the spark to lead to the next rally (I'm talking about their exchange). It's an overestimated aspect if you want my opinion. Besides there were a lot of other bullish news that the market didn't even care for. The ETF on the other hand...  Roll Eyes

the exchange itself shouldn't move the market at first but I expect that the potential announcement of it being "sponsored" by X major US bank will give us a lift.

This. If somehow they will be able to establish an "i/o" through the fiat world, this will be the catalyst towards the biggest rally so far. Yet though, there's also another bank in the EU that plays that role (Fidor Bank) but no significant CCMF yet. Maybe because the EU BTC infrastructure is a lot smaller than the USA's one.

I'm confident though, that the twins are on the right track for a perfect rally. We'll see.

Fidor is small time though isn't it? I was thinking more along the lines of a Citigroup/BoA/Wells Fargo type announcement.

I agree with you that the twins are somehow someway playing their hands perfectly and will ride this next rally in the driver seat once they "IPO" Bitcoin through their ETF.
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March 16, 2015, 07:18:21 AM

Winklevoss twins speaking about Bitcoin at SXSW tomorrow in Texas, surprised no one has mentioned this. I didn't even know about it until my wife told me that she's going to watch.

I assumed that most people here also read the /r/bitcoinmarkets daily trading thread. Anyways we had some discussion on this yesterday:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2z3b2d/daily_discussion_sunday_march_15_2015/cpfgylz

There are a lot of skeptics that this alone will be the spark to lead to the next rally (I'm talking about their exchange). It's an overestimated aspect if you want my opinion. Besides there were a lot of other bullish news that the market didn't even care for. The ETF on the other hand...  Roll Eyes

the exchange itself shouldn't move the market at first but I expect that the potential announcement of it being "sponsored" by X major US bank will give us a lift.

This. If somehow they will be able to establish an "i/o" through the fiat world, this will be the catalyst towards the biggest rally so far. Yet though, there's also another bank in the EU that plays that role (Fidor Bank) but no significant CCMF yet. Maybe because the EU BTC infrastructure is a lot smaller than the USA's one.

I'm confident though, that the twins are on the right track for a perfect rally. We'll see.

Fidor is small time though isn't it? I was thinking more along the lines of a Citigroup/BoA/Wells Fargo type announcement.

I agree with you that the twins are somehow someway playing their hands perfectly and will ride this next rally in the driver seat once they "IPO" Bitcoin through their ETF.

Fidor is indeed a new player in the game. The difficult part is to find allies into a system that you're supposed to replace. There should be insiders that believe that the current system has flaws and /or there's room for a stronger player into the economic ecosystem. BTC as a store of value and fast global transaction system is not new. All it needs is more followers from the "real" world. For instance:

http://www.coindesk.com/remax-london-accepts-bitcoin-litecoin-dogecoin-pilot-program/

Wink
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March 16, 2015, 07:31:37 AM

I may be a seller on $293...

I still think we have to test $270
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March 16, 2015, 07:59:05 AM

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March 16, 2015, 08:34:26 AM

Yo mmi, where are my double digits you promised after the 152 dip? Fucking retard.  Roll Eyes
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March 16, 2015, 08:41:22 AM

Yo mmi, where are my double digits you promised after the 152 dip? Fucking retard.  Roll Eyes

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March 16, 2015, 08:59:05 AM

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March 16, 2015, 09:59:05 AM

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March 16, 2015, 10:08:46 AM

after following this thread for a year I've made my first transaction based upon TA.  I bought based upon the 6 hour KDJ lines.  I decided to buy 13 hours ago and put off the bills till later in the month as opposed to buying Bitcoin later in the month.  

Then I think of oda.krell   Grin Cheesy Grin

Edit: and dreamspark

I get the feeling there's either an insult wrapped up in there, or a compliment.

Or possibly both. 

ಠ_ಠ
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March 16, 2015, 10:16:50 AM

When looking at the 1w candlestick chart on Bitcoinwisdom, there is 6 green candles in a row now!. Have not seen this since may 2014 and the October 2013 boom. If we get 7 green candles on that 1w chart, there is a huge likelihood we are in a new boom.
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March 16, 2015, 10:19:29 AM

I thought it would obviously have to be time invariant. Doesn't TA only depend on the data in the chart? I don't know much about TA, but Wikipedia and Investopedia say that TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same. Same for a market moving slow or fast. If all trades are done at half the speed, shouldn't the conclusions on the same pattern (but stretched twice as long in time) be the same? And isn't the model describing a bear trap and a bull trap essentially the same, just applied inverted?

I know there's a kind of "law" in (amateur, perhaps also professional) algorithmic trading that your strategy should be time invariant. Some even go as far as saying it should be market invariant. In reality, I think it's more a heuristic to find out if the "pattern" you think you detected is just noise, or if you're onto something.

This is completely 'finger in the air', but I sometimes think that certain patterns that seem to be a good predictor emerge across different time scales (hence, motivation for the above "law"), but they're not equally important/active across all scales.

EDIT: The previous paragraph would still be compatible with "TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same" I would argue: you could simply be missing one variable, say, something like "total volume necessary until pattern x becomes active/has a strong enough influence on the market".



To come to your counter question, I cannot exclude that a signal is useless (usable?) because it lags. Even more, since this signal is interpreted by humans with neural networks in their heads, they can very well learn how to interpret them without understanding them (as we do with so many things). Simply by training. One doesn't need to have an explicit  model that makes sense. And when many people start acting on a certain signal (even if it's not based on a proper model and it doesn't make sense), the very fact that a significant part of the actors take that signal into account creates a self fulfilling prophecy. So yes, that may very well constitute an exploitable pattern. Wink

That was the point I was trying to make. I believe "chartism"/TA is more than just a self-fulfilling prophecy, but there is some self-fulfilling aspect to it, mainly in the form of the exact points of resistance/support.

What I mean is: Some combination of signals tells traders "market is bearish, even though we're currently going up" (the non circular part of TA). Next question, where exactly to go short? "Hm, let's say DSMA50. Seems like a good place as any." After the first few sell at exactly that point, it becomes a "point of heavy resistance" (the circular part of TA).

/my 2 crackpot cents Cheesy
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March 16, 2015, 10:59:04 AM

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March 16, 2015, 11:05:13 AM

Winklevoss twins speaking about Bitcoin at SXSW tomorrow in Texas, surprised no one has mentioned this. I didn't even know about it until my wife told me that she's going to watch.

I assumed that most people here also read the /r/bitcoinmarkets daily trading thread. Anyways we had some discussion on this yesterday:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2z3b2d/daily_discussion_sunday_march_15_2015/cpfgylz

There are a lot of skeptics that this alone will be the spark to lead to the next rally (I'm talking about their exchange). It's an overestimated aspect if you want my opinion. Besides there were a lot of other bullish news that the market didn't even care for. The ETF on the other hand...  Roll Eyes

the exchange itself shouldn't move the market at first but I expect that the potential announcement of it being "sponsored" by X major US bank will give us a lift.

This. If somehow they will be able to establish an "i/o" through the fiat world, this will be the catalyst towards the biggest rally so far. Yet though, there's also another bank in the EU that plays that role (Fidor Bank) but no significant CCMF yet. Maybe because the EU BTC infrastructure is a lot smaller than the USA's one.

I'm confident though, that the twins are on the right track for a perfect rally. We'll see.

afaik fidor is not for europeans... only for germans, no?
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March 16, 2015, 11:13:59 AM

Winklevoss twins speaking about Bitcoin at SXSW tomorrow in Texas, surprised no one has mentioned this. I didn't even know about it until my wife told me that she's going to watch.

I assumed that most people here also read the /r/bitcoinmarkets daily trading thread. Anyways we had some discussion on this yesterday:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2z3b2d/daily_discussion_sunday_march_15_2015/cpfgylz

There are a lot of skeptics that this alone will be the spark to lead to the next rally (I'm talking about their exchange). It's an overestimated aspect if you want my opinion. Besides there were a lot of other bullish news that the market didn't even care for. The ETF on the other hand...  Roll Eyes

the exchange itself shouldn't move the market at first but I expect that the potential announcement of it being "sponsored" by X major US bank will give us a lift.

This. If somehow they will be able to establish an "i/o" through the fiat world, this will be the catalyst towards the biggest rally so far. Yet though, there's also another bank in the EU that plays that role (Fidor Bank) but no significant CCMF yet. Maybe because the EU BTC infrastructure is a lot smaller than the USA's one.

I'm confident though, that the twins are on the right track for a perfect rally. We'll see.

afaik fidor is not for europeans... only for germans, no?

I think someone said and quoted a phrase that if you want to open up that one account that enables you to trade on their new open platform, you have to be a German resident. But if this is working well, who knows... they might just go and offer it for other EU customers, too!
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March 16, 2015, 11:39:43 AM

Winklevoss twins speaking about Bitcoin at SXSW tomorrow in Texas, surprised no one has mentioned this. I didn't even know about it until my wife told me that she's going to watch.

I assumed that most people here also read the /r/bitcoinmarkets daily trading thread. Anyways we had some discussion on this yesterday:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2z3b2d/daily_discussion_sunday_march_15_2015/cpfgylz

There are a lot of skeptics that this alone will be the spark to lead to the next rally (I'm talking about their exchange). It's an overestimated aspect if you want my opinion. Besides there were a lot of other bullish news that the market didn't even care for. The ETF on the other hand...  Roll Eyes

the exchange itself shouldn't move the market at first but I expect that the potential announcement of it being "sponsored" by X major US bank will give us a lift.

This. If somehow they will be able to establish an "i/o" through the fiat world, this will be the catalyst towards the biggest rally so far. Yet though, there's also another bank in the EU that plays that role (Fidor Bank) but no significant CCMF yet. Maybe because the EU BTC infrastructure is a lot smaller than the USA's one.

I'm confident though, that the twins are on the right track for a perfect rally. We'll see.

afaik fidor is not for europeans... only for germans, no?

I think someone said and quoted a phrase that if you want to open up that one account that enables you to trade on their new open platform, you have to be a German resident. But if this is working well, who knows... they might just go and offer it for other EU customers, too!


They (Kraken) accept SEPA, which I personally verified. It works for everybody inside the EU.
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March 16, 2015, 11:42:47 AM


afaik fidor is not for europeans... only for germans, no?

Correct. You need to go to a german post office with german papers to verify your identity.

However, this is likely to change in the future, subject to regulatory approval.
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March 16, 2015, 11:45:11 AM




They (Kraken) accept SEPA, which I personally verified. It works for everybody inside the EU.

Ah, you already edited your post...
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March 16, 2015, 11:45:26 AM

I thought it would obviously have to be time invariant. Doesn't TA only depend on the data in the chart? I don't know much about TA, but Wikipedia and Investopedia say that TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same. Same for a market moving slow or fast. If all trades are done at half the speed, shouldn't the conclusions on the same pattern (but stretched twice as long in time) be the same? And isn't the model describing a bear trap and a bull trap essentially the same, just applied inverted?

I know there's a kind of "law" in (amateur, perhaps also professional) algorithmic trading that your strategy should be time invariant. Some even go as far as saying it should be market invariant. In reality, I think it's more a heuristic to find out if the "pattern" you think you detected is just noise, or if you're onto something.

This is completely 'finger in the air', but I sometimes think that certain patterns that seem to be a good predictor emerge across different time scales (hence, motivation for the above "law"), but they're not equally important/active across all scales.

EDIT: The previous paragraph would still be compatible with "TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same" I would argue: you could simply be missing one variable, say, something like "total volume necessary until pattern x becomes active/has a strong enough influence on the market".



To come to your counter question, I cannot exclude that a signal is useless (usable?) because it lags. Even more, since this signal is interpreted by humans with neural networks in their heads, they can very well learn how to interpret them without understanding them (as we do with so many things). Simply by training. One doesn't need to have an explicit  model that makes sense. And when many people start acting on a certain signal (even if it's not based on a proper model and it doesn't make sense), the very fact that a significant part of the actors take that signal into account creates a self fulfilling prophecy. So yes, that may very well constitute an exploitable pattern. Wink

That was the point I was trying to make. I believe "chartism"/TA is more than just a self-fulfilling prophecy, but there is some self-fulfilling aspect to it, mainly in the form of the exact points of resistance/support.

What I mean is: Some combination of signals tells traders "market is bearish, even though we're currently going up" (the non circular part of TA). Next question, where exactly to go short? "Hm, let's say DSMA50. Seems like a good place as any." After the first few sell at exactly that point, it becomes a "point of heavy resistance" (the circular part of TA).

/my 2 crackpot cents Cheesy

Lets agree to disagree.  Cheesy
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