Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

there's like ~7M $ in shorts that need to cover

and at <250 bears can't be as confident as they were >400

if we do go down it won't be fast and not very deep short covering will soften the blow and make it bouncy

this would be a no brainer BUY if only it wasn't for the possible of a good long squeeze...

In other words, HODL, HODL, HODL.

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[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Fatman3001]

This is weird. Where is the volume? We should be troll central by now as well. Instead ChartBuddy is ruling Da House.

[Wekkel]

This is weird. Where is the volume? We should be troll central by now as well. Instead ChartBuddy is ruling Da House.

We are slowly getting to desperation. Best time to buy is when Chart Buddy rules the pages.

[madmat]

This is weird. Where is the volume? We should be troll central by now as well. Instead ChartBuddy is ruling Da House.

Support at 236 is strong. We touched it 4 times in the last 15 days. Bears should begin to close their shorts.

[SkyValeey]

https://www.tradingview.com/s/bitcoin/?sort=recent
dyor

btw. chat at tradingview about btc is great place if you trade with brain (=analysis)

chessnut's and danv's at last time are pretty accurate
ofc you can find also bullish at now like always but there's much more premises to go down.

look at btcchina 15m - rising volume with dropping price, clearly distribution.
the guy with 500k$? long at finex is joke. We saw similar spikes right before price went down.
i don't say price will crash today or tomorrow but it's easy to see that this is another bulltrap very likely.
slowly downtrend with many mini bulltraps is what we can see now.
Maybe with final dump. the sooner, the better to go faster up imo.
Right now there's an army people holding btc and holding opened longs and they must believe that we're going higher.
they think that they're in accumulation phase:) because they're always buying when price rose lol.
usually that's the point when distribution is starting:)

If you trade with a brain you won't be frequenting tradingview, whaleclub or any other group for that matter, you'll be reading and studying the market on your own. If those guys were making consistent money they wouldn't need to promote themselves to attract a following. And I can guarantee you those guys already know how to trade, set stops correctly, and read the market as it comes at them allowing them to avoid their own advice if it turns out to be false (which is often, no analyst is perfect). The poor lemmings who listen to them will be stuck in poor positions as the market turns against them, not knowing what to do, so they invariably hold, hoping and wishing (and trolling) that the market will come back to them. Eventually they get emotional and let go at the worst possible time. This is how the market eats newb traders.

Don't bother with 15m analysis. We are in an accumulation phase, at least on the longer term (months). They happen after capitulation at market bottoms. A long term distribution will occur at some point in the future, but not until after a strong bull market. Dec-Feb 2013/14 was the big distribution phase after the 2013 bull market. Accumulation generally takes longer than distribution, and we are nearing the final phases of one now started in January. Either bears get their wish and the market shakes down to $200 again before takeoff, or we blast off upwards through spring and summer. It's anyone's guess at this point. In the event of a shakeout many longs (who have proven to be well-capitalized) would continue to hold and more shorts led by dumb money would be opened, only to run for cover on the reversal. In the event of a blast off, the shorts would still run for cover and many more would be opened above $300 only to be destroyed by a new bull market, which always follows an accumulation phase (of course the dumb money does not know this). This is why there are so many well-funded long positions, probably some professional money there. Shorts are the weak hands in both scenarios.

Personally, with the difficulty the market has had selling of recently, my vote is for the blast off. It'll happen just like every other bubble: Supply is removed from remaining weak hands via capitulation, market fails to continue downward as demand is back in control, and price floats up for a few months before gaining steam into a parabolic move. Then distribution and another bear market as all the weak hands who bought at the top bail again, then accumulation and another bull market. Rinse and repeat.

Thank you for good post. Good reply. It's unique to talk here with arguments and without silly pics.

But you're wrong.

Bitcoin is still in very ugly downtrend caused by Karpeles 2 bubbles and big gox-scam.

No serious usage (only darkmarkets as a "must have btc"), pure speculation.

Everyone just want to make money fast. Get rich quick kids scheme.

It's OK - but not by fucking scams. There's more scams in cryptocurrencies that real work, infrastructure and adaptation.

Accumulation phase? Hell no. And "professional money" in longs?

Parabolic move in few months? I don't know but I don't think.

The real accumulation I can see is double digits or low 1xx (it doesn't mean that I think we're going there now or this year).

BTC now is chinese wash laverage machine. Big players don't need bubble because they can make money with laverage.

It's market like others. Magic is gone. Karpeles is great example of what this market really is.

This is big "wow! cryptocurrencies!" but the truth is "wow! we can make money of people who think BTC is new God!".

You're smart so please don't be blind with "accumulation" "new bull market" etc. New bull market will started after full capitulation and it's not matter of new low and to da moon after. It can takes even few months at low price. But i think that laveraging will cut every big move.

[SkyValeey]

This is weird. Where is the volume? We should be troll central by now as well. Instead ChartBuddy is ruling Da House.

Support at 236 is strong. We touched it 4 times in the last 15 days. Bears should begin to close their shorts.

It means that it's not strong and it's falling partly. Look there's only 2.2k btc to 235$. This is fucking nothing.
Few h ago it was 4k to 235$. Look how weak are bids at finex.

We're at moment when best holders (not daytraders but mid/long players) think about sell because main support is melting.

[Fatman3001]

This is weird. Where is the volume? We should be troll central by now as well. Instead ChartBuddy is ruling Da House.

Support at 236 is strong. We touched it 4 times in the last 15 days. Bears should begin to close their shorts.

It means that it's not strong and it's falling partly. Look there's only 2.2k btc to 235$. This is fucking nothing.
Few h ago it was 4k to 235$. Look how weak are bids at finex.

We're at moment when best holders (not daytraders but mid/long players) think about sell because main support is melting.

What I am getting at is: we had a 3k dump followed by crickets. Neither bear or bull cared enough to react neither here or at the exchanges. I have seen despair before. It's a friggin goth fest.

[fonsie]

This is weird. Where is the volume? We should be troll central by now as well. Instead ChartBuddy is ruling Da House.

Support at 236 is strong. We touched it 4 times in the last 15 days. Bears should begin to close their shorts.

It means that it's not strong and it's falling partly. Look there's only 2.2k btc to 235$. This is fucking nothing.
Few h ago it was 4k to 235$. Look how weak are bids at finex.

We're at moment when best holders (not daytraders but mid/long players) think about sell because main support is melting.

yes, I also think you should sell your house, think, because ice caps are melting and it will be under water. I'll buy it for cheap and make it waterproof.

[Fatman3001]

This is weird. Where is the volume? We should be troll central by now as well. Instead ChartBuddy is ruling Da House.

We are slowly getting to desperation. Best time to buy is when Chart Buddy rules the pages.

I've been there since October. It's not so bad.

[luckygenough56]

This is weird. Where is the volume? We should be troll central by now as well. Instead ChartBuddy is ruling Da House.

charts are trolley enough

[bassclef]

Bottom tested three times (at least) on declining volume over the past few weeks. This trading range was shakeout city.

[SkyValeey]

Right... they didn't sell sub 200$ two months ago and you think they will sell now?

How you know? I don't mean EA or very longterm holders, but greater part of traders buying and selling once a few weeks/max months.
There're many traders who bought below 200$ for longterm, they didn't sell ~300$ because their target is longterm and they thought we're going higher (so trend reversal and 500$+). When that kind of traders (obviously) didn't sell at 290-300$ and see now that we're still in downtrend, they usually have tight SL and it's probably this support line 235$ or 230$ or similar.

SL is sign of good traders. They'll sell with profit when this support won't hold becuase tactic is to have target and SL. Target is not available now and soon (very small chance to break 300$ without going below 235$), so that's why I think that there're still many people who will sell when support will fall.

Ofc there's another part of (also) good traders mid-long who bought at 250-300$ and their SL is to cut losses in this case.

Holders above 300$ is another story.

Daytraders is another story - they can accept any move if they're smart enough to use short laverage ang long laverage properly (for weak traders laverage it's more like gambling).

I think this support is not strong and it's just matter of time when we'll see prices below 235$.

There is 2000btc to 235$ and if you want to base your trade tactic at this support - good luck.

Good luck all ofc :-D

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[gizmoh]

This one is nice :

[8up]

I like to read the bull vs. bear stories a lot. But for now stability is king.

No one wants to read this (because it is the blind spot of most market participants).

Next thing (around May) will be a slowly increasing price. As it still provides the "necessary" uncertainty for the current market situation. -> Bulls will be frightened to buy and sell and bears will be evermore frightened to short. Give this market some more time (months) to evolve.

ATM there is neither the need for a lower nor a higher price for the market to function well. Both doom and gloom have shortcomings we are not able to calculate in the price very well -> hence we stay where we are.

Edit: A possible intra-day flash crash including a fast recovery is totally possible at all times. This post is about beeing cautious, what the market wants vs. what market participants want.

[fonsie]

It's quiet in here, too quiet, has the troll's sausage fest ended already. I hope not. Or do they al go to sleep in sync?

[Fatman3001]

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Xiaoxiao]

This one is nice :

This analysis is on point. However, I don't like the long term trend it has projected. It could easily slip far below the yellow long term trendline.