Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

Regarding the GBTC quotes I wouldn't place much faith in those higher bids staying and after all they are for 100 shares and at 0.1 BTC per share thats 10 bitcoin so hardly game changing.  I see these bids as bait to draw out existing share holders to submit shares to brokers to sell.

For long term holders there is a gain to be had selling shares at above the market price and re-buying 1 year locked shares at the exchange rate.

For those companies wanting to day trade there is an appeal to paying above market rate for those shares which have passed the 1 year mark and can be fully traded though I doubt that they would really want to be paying $380.  Maybe in reality more like $25 or $50 above the exchange rate.

Of course those long term holders will be aware of this and will know that the initial bids are bait but a few quick trades could net a tidy profit if a company can sell and buy back in say $25 or $50 lower.  Also don't forget that these are traded by brokers so I suspect there will be a degree of pre-trading deals being setup with some trades/deals being lined up in advance.

I reckon when trading starts we'll see an initial push up over $300 which will settle down within a day or two to back below $300

[1714880114]

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[1714880114]

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[dakota neat]

wtf @hashrate 4.16PH, block time down to 8.18 min 

[Fatman3001]

Still looks like volume might end up around the 10k mark on finex. Not a good sign. Anyone who care to guess where we'll end up?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Fatman3001]

wtf @hashrate 4.16PH, block time down to 8.18 min 

I don't know why, but luck tends to swing sharply into plus-territory just after a difficulty adjustment. Happened last time as well.

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

wtf @hashrate 4.16PH, block time down to 8.18 min 

Someone switched their mining pool back on again ?

A good sign I think

[8up]

I find this analysis good:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/rC6uMwPH-Bitcoin-Period-of-Consolidation/

Indeed. It seems like a fractal of the first bearish channel. My take one month ago was stability around 255 +/-30(40) for at least 2 month. We are at the lower edge for some days now. I think we will see 260-270 very soon. With the effect, that bulls will come out with arrognace. (Like there is no tomorrow and a bubble is immanent). I think this is the time for another down-turn to ~230. After that, my picture becomes unclear.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

For those companies wanting to day trade there is an appeal to paying above market rate for those shares which have passed the 1 year mark and can be fully traded though I doubt that they would really want to be paying $380.  Maybe in reality more like $25 or $50 above the exchange rate.

Seems a risky business.  Investor buys a batch at 20% premium over the BTC price, but the next day another 100'000 shares mature and their owner puts them for sale, at a 10% discount. 

That may be the reason why there are no real bids yet.  Most of the 1.4 million extant shares are mature. Who knows how many will be put for sale as soon as Greyscale's carrier turtles deliver the certificates...

[ensurance982]

I find this analysis good:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/rC6uMwPH-Bitcoin-Period-of-Consolidation/

Indeed. It seems like a fractal of the first bearish channel. My take one month ago was stability around 255 +/-30(40) for at least 2 month. We are at the lower edge for some days now. I think we will see 260-270 very soon. With the effect, that bulls will come out with arrognace. (Like there is no tomorrow and a bubble is immanent). I think this is the time for another down-turn to ~230. After that, my picture becomes unclear.

Bulls being arrogant tends to destroy every bull rally we've seen over the last year or so. The "hopium" is just too high, still. And I'm frankly quite afraid that many bulls may have already lost sizeable chunks of their positions and maybe won't be able to push this thing out of the downwards channel. In that case we have to wait until bears turn bulls and a trend-reversal is confirmed at some level.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[dakota neat]

I find this analysis good:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/rC6uMwPH-Bitcoin-Period-of-Consolidation/

Indeed. It seems like a fractal of the first bearish channel. My take one month ago was stability around 255 +/-30(40) for at least 2 month. We are at the lower edge for some days now. I think we will see 260-270 very soon. With the effect, that bulls will come out with arrognace. (Like there is no tomorrow and a bubble is immanent). I think this is the time for another down-turn to ~230. After that, my picture becomes unclear.

Bulls being arrogant tends to destroy every bull rally we've seen over the last year or so. The "hopium" is just too high, still. And I'm frankly quite afraid that many bulls may have already lost sizeable chunks of their positions and maybe won't be able to push this thing out of the downwards channel. In that case we have to wait until bears turn bulls and a trend-reversal is confirmed at some level.

i guess there's an chicken-egg problem. bears wont turn bulls without an trend-reversal that only can be caused by a certain amount of bulls. we need an external impulse (what's up with that etf thing anyway) to spark a rally.

the only reason i'm still optimistic is all the vc money thrown into bitcoin which is already nearing btc's market cap. I doubt these guys will let their investment go. 1M dollar would be enough to squeeze half of the shorts away.

[ensurance982]

Bulls being arrogant tends to destroy every bull rally we've seen over the last year or so. The "hopium" is just too high, still. And I'm frankly quite afraid that many bulls may have already lost sizeable chunks of their positions and maybe won't be able to push this thing out of the downwards channel. In that case we have to wait until bears turn bulls and a trend-reversal is confirmed at some level.

i guess there's an chicken-egg problem. bears wont turn bulls without an trend-reversal that only can be caused by a certain amount of bulls. we need an external impulse (what's up with that etf thing anyway) to spark a rally.

the only reason i'm still optimistic is all the vc money thrown into bitcoin which is already nearing btc's market cap. I doubt these guys will let their investment go. 1M dollar would be enough to squeeze half of the shorts away.

Yes, that's exactly the problem we're looking at. And that's the exact reason why we may still go down from here. If the price continues to go lower, the buying pressure / support gets too strong, thus the price just won't fall anymore. At that point we've got a definitive trend-reversal, even the beariest bears will act upon!

[macsga]

I find this analysis good:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/rC6uMwPH-Bitcoin-Period-of-Consolidation/

I don't believe in TA's but things are not necessarily bearish in my opinion. As predicted earlier in this thread (also visible on the chart) May's the time. Not long before we see some real action; do you really think that we're going down after 1 year of decline? The way I see it, bears are running out of time... buy now or get burnt. 

[ensurance982]

I don't believe in TA's but things are not necessarily bearish in my opinion. As predicted earlier in this thread May's the time. Not long before we see some real action; bears are running out of time...

The problem with the month of May is that volume and trading activity tends to die down over the summer months and May seems to be the universally accepted starting point of that phase. I'm kinda afraid of yet another long and dry (no pun intended) summer...

[JayJuanGee]

I don't believe in TA's but things are not necessarily bearish in my opinion. As predicted earlier in this thread May's the time. Not long before we see some real action; bears are running out of time...

The problem with the month of May is that volume and trading activity tends to die down over the summer months and May seems to be the universally accepted starting point of that phase. I'm kinda afraid of yet another long and dry (no pun intended) summer...

Unless something radical occurs, maybe we will NOT really see any dramatic changes in BTC prices until August?

[macsga]

I don't believe in TA's but things are not necessarily bearish in my opinion. As predicted earlier in this thread May's the time. Not long before we see some real action; bears are running out of time...

The problem with the month of May is that volume and trading activity tends to die down over the summer months and May seems to be the universally accepted starting point of that phase. I'm kinda afraid of yet another long and dry (no pun intended) summer...

True point. "Sell in May and get away". But don't forget that BTC tends to do opposite things than predicted. Nine out of ten times this is the case. While things seem to eradicate, there's that moment that the reversal starts. I'm not getting delusional here, just pointing out what the story has proven so far if you check the facts.  

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

For those companies wanting to day trade there is an appeal to paying above market rate for those shares which have passed the 1 year mark and can be fully traded though I doubt that they would really want to be paying $380.  Maybe in reality more like $25 or $50 above the exchange rate.

Seems a risky business.  Investor buys a batch at 20% premium over the BTC price, but the next day another 100'000 shares mature and their owner puts them for sale, at a 10% discount. 

That may be the reason why there are no real bids yet.  Most of the 1.4 million extant shares are mature. Who knows how many will be put for sale as soon as Greyscale's carrier turtles deliver the certificates...

Well if the investor has bought at a 20% premium then surely that sets the market value so shares maturing the next day are unlikely to be marked down as much as 10% if the seller thinks they can sell at the 20% premium trading was at the previous day.
My (amateur) reasoning is that the shares which have matured (and OTC traded) are worth more than brand new shares bought today which cannot be traded for 1 year.  Some companies may prefer to buy and hold in which case new shares are fine but some may want a % of matured shares which can be freely bought & sold.  So company A then sells mature shares at a premium to company B and immediately buys new shares to the same value as the sale for a net gain with the catch that the new shares will be 1 year locked.  Company B (who might have been late to the party) then gains shares that can be freely traded or simply sold if they wanted cut their losses & get out.
Someone will have performed a risk analysis for this stock and set appropriate targets for the portfolio % and maybe a stop loss.  That may require that a % of the stocks are mature so they can be instantly sold if a stop loss is hit and this makes these stocks worth paying above market value for.

That said this is bitcoinland so who knows. I still believe that there will be plenty of negotiation going on here behind the scenes. That said every company listed on the Bid side is also listed on the Ask side which I assume suggests they have shares to sell so does that mean there are no new buyers ? Maybe this will be a damp squib with companies holding shares only having each other to sell to.

Apologies if this is a bit ramshackle, I struggled with the wording and re-wrote this a few times !

Either way those turtles need to speed up.

[minerpumpkin]

I also believe that the summer may be a dry patch. Well, we've seen quite an impressive pump at the end of May last year, but that wasn't sustainable at all, as we all know now. On the other hand, there's not much as positive as a slow uptrend over the summer to start the next "big thing" (don't wanna jinx it) in fall or winter!

[Tzupy]

...The way I see it, bears are running out of time... buy now or get burnt. 

No, bears aren't running out of time. Even if THE bottom was 3 months ago, considering that the market moves slowly, there should be another 1 - 2 months of relatively low prices.
So "buy now OR get burnt" may turn into "buy now AND get burned", in the bearish scenario. In the bullish one, plenty of time to buy, mega-rally only after the block halving in 2016.