Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LightRider]

Suggestion for chartbuddy: Make the leading price edge line, the front line on z-axis if you will, a rainbow gradient with each pure color set on a modulus 10 price point. Say, red (#FF0000) is pegged to $100, and each $10 dollar increment has a gradient progression to the next pure color in either direction ($90 is Violet, $110 is Orange, etc.). That way, when the screens are put together in video format, we can easily determine the price movement.

Just an idea. What do you guys think?

[01BTC10]

Smell like 120 to me.

This.

[DaSheep]

However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.

I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.

Bitstamp has 5k less coins in their Ask compared to 1-2 weeks ago.   Most likely, they have all been move to Gox to sell.

I believe the buying pressure in Bitstamp has just consumed the coins.

Gox situation is special. I don't believe that their bid side comes from true demand, because it is so much easier to use other exchanges for buying, and their price is also much lower. To me it seems that most of Gox bids are money trying to escape Gox in the form of bitcoins.

This money is orginally as Gox-USD, and most of the owners want it converted back to USD after escaping from Gox. It does not change the total bitcoin supply-demand, because it is both originally and eventually USD. Bitcoin is therefore used only as a value transmit mechanism for Gox-USD.

So it's a run on Gox then ...

A 20%+ risk premium over the other main USD exchanges would certainly point in that direction.

MtGox 24h Volume: 46280 BTC
Bitstamp 24h Volume: 11791 BTC

Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.

[wachtwoord]

Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.

I guess the whales can negotiate about conditions with Gox. Don't you think many little guys are buying BTC with their Gox USD?

[DaSheep]

Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.

I guess the whales can negotiate about conditions with Gox. Don't you think many little guys are buying BTC with their Gox USD?

I do but little guys won't cause the price to shoot up like this.
The price is rising because of whales buying huge amounts of BTC in a single order (we saw some 5k buy orders today) so it doesn't make sense.
Also where are those coins from the "gox run" getting sold? Volume of the other exchanges is ultra low compared to gox.

[ChartBuddy]

[RMT2J]

Japan just came fully back into business today after a near one week long public holiday. 

[Tzupy]

I do but little guys won't cause the price to shoot up like this.
The price is rising because of whales buying huge amounts of BTC in a single order (we saw some 5k buy orders today) so it doesn't make sense.
Also where are those coins from the "gox run" getting sold? Volume of the other exchanges is ultra low compared to gox.

The big whale only bought at the bottom of this rally, smaller whales followed.
As for the missing coins, they may show up for sale on Gox in about 15 days (that's a crude estimation).

[joesmoe2012]

Japan just came fully back into business today after a near one week long public holiday. 

Its always a holiday @ gox.

[rebuilder]

If price rises in Gox, all or part of it can be attributed to Gox crap situation (and dismissed as evidence).

However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, the Gox price rise is mainly caused by their withdrawal issues creating increased intra-gox demand for bitcoins. So much of the fuzzy "market sentiment" is still driven by that Gox ticker, it's not hard for me to imagine a scenario where all the exchanges keep creeping up on the hype of the Gox price going up, even if it did in the end turn out to be a sort of bank run fueling the Gox rocket. If that were to happen, we could also see a pretty drastic drop down when the Gox uncertainty get resolved, one way or the other.

[DaSheep]

Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.

I guess the whales can negotiate about conditions with Gox. Don't you think many little guys are buying BTC with their Gox USD?

I do but little guys won't cause the price to shoot up like this.
The price is rising because of whales buying huge amounts of BTC in a single order (we saw some 5k buy orders today) so it doesn't make sense.
Also where are those coins from the "gox run" getting sold? Volume of the other exchanges is ultra low compared to gox.

The big whale only bought at the bottom of this rally, smaller whales followed.
As for the missing coins, they may show up for sale on Gox in about 15 days (that's a crude estimation).

Not really, the last one happened @ $123.
Also if they get sold on Gox in 15days it's just another argument against the theory of people "getting out of gox".

[Traktion]

So it's a run on Gox then ...

A 20%+ risk premium over the other main USD exchanges would certainly point in that direction.

MtGox 24h Volume: 46280 BTC
Bitstamp 24h Volume: 11791 BTC

Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.

I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?

If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.

[Its About Sharing]

So it's a run on Gox then ...

A 20%+ risk premium over the other main USD exchanges would certainly point in that direction.

MtGox 24h Volume: 46280 BTC
Bitstamp 24h Volume: 11791 BTC

Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10.

I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?

If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.

Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action.

[Tzupy]

Not really, the last one happened @ $123.
Also if they get sold on Gox in 15days it's just another argument against the theory of people "getting out of gox".

The 123 push was no whale, just panic buyers.
There were people getting out of Gox via coins and Bitstamp, where they are probably selling now or will sell when the next rally happens.
But my 15 days crude estimate is about the sub-waves 4 and 5 of the main Elliot wave.

[ChartBuddy]

[Traktion]

I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?

If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.

Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action.

I trade regularly on Stamp, without any major issues. TBH, it tends to be a bit less erratic, IMO.

I take your point though that traders are looking at relative prices, rather than absolute prices. I'd still be a bit concerned about Gox's future, considering the way the market is pricing the risk already.

[Its About Sharing]

I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?

If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.

Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action.

I trade regularly on Stamp, without any major issues. TBH, it tends to be a bit less erratic, IMO.

I take your point though that traders are looking at relative prices, rather than absolute prices. I'd still be a bit concerned about Gox's future, considering the way the market is pricing the risk already.

Yeah, the price movement is on Gox (and originates there). Look at this last movement. Nothing happened on Stamp for a while, then suddenly a $4 movement and then it backed off.

I am also really worried about Gox. It might end up being nothing, but how long ago did that 2 week freeze on wiring money end? About 2 months ago or so? And it was only supposed to take a few weeks to get back to speed (backlog as Gox said). Now - NO WORD, zero...

[Kupsi]

Now - NO WORD, zero...

Here are some words...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.msg2924021#msg2924021

[ChartBuddy]

[Traktion]

I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?

If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.

Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action.

I trade regularly on Stamp, without any major issues. TBH, it tends to be a bit less erratic, IMO.

I take your point though that traders are looking at relative prices, rather than absolute prices. I'd still be a bit concerned about Gox's future, considering the way the market is pricing the risk already.

Yeah, the price movement is on Gox (and originates there). Look at this last movement. Nothing happened on Stamp for a while, then suddenly a $4 movement and then it backed off.

I am also really worried about Gox. It might end up being nothing, but how long ago did that 2 week freeze on wiring money end? About 2 months ago or so? And it was only supposed to take a few weeks to get back to speed (backlog as Gox said). Now - NO WORD, zero...

Sometimes that makes trading on Stamp easier! I find that it mostly carves its own patterns these days though, apart from these big moves.

IMO, you don't end up with prices 20% higher than elsewhere unless something is very wrong. Whether it is panic at not knowing what is going on or whether some big players do know what is going on, who can say?