Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

[MickeyT2008]

It looks to me like someone's accumulating everything within a $5 range below each higher high since the 19th.

If we see $118/$119 I suspect it will shoot back up into the $123-$125 range again.

It seems that way, I suspect that the owner of the $125 wall is getting people to bid in front of him, then when there's a lot of asks he's buying them all up.  I've noticed that those big buys always seem to go up to his wall but never buy into it, which also makes me think it's the same person.  I'd expect that if others start buying into his wall or getting too close to it that he'll take it away and the price will go above $125

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[adamstgBit]

It looks to me like someone's accumulating everything within a $5 range below each higher high since the 19th.

If we see $118/$119 I suspect it will shoot back up into the $123-$125 range again.

It seems that way, I suspect that the owner of the $125 wall is getting people to bid in front of him, then when there's a lot of asks he's buying them all up.  I've noticed that those big buys always seem to go up to his wall but never buy into it, which also makes me think it's the same person.  I'd expect that if others start buying into his wall or getting too close to it that he'll take it away and the price will go above $125

in any case, the longer we stay below it, the more likely this wall will just vanish.

[adamstgBit]

funny sorry,

Some guy PM's me asking for some trading advice, so i tell him buy some bitcoin. the next day i get a PM from him telling me he took a long on bitfenix, so i ask him did you go "all in", he says ya and tells me the figures and says "i don't know what i'm doing I hope it goes good".  I'm like    so i tell him, don't panic wait and start unwinding some of that position as price rises. so ya price has gone up, i haven't heard from him since, i assume he still holding his long... phhhh nubs.


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[thezerg]

It looks to me like someone's accumulating everything within a $5 range below each higher high since the 19th.

If we see $118/$119 I suspect it will shoot back up into the $123-$125 range again.

It seems that way, I suspect that the owner of the $125 wall is getting people to bid in front of him, then when there's a lot of asks he's buying them all up.  I've noticed that those big buys always seem to go up to his wall but never buy into it, which also makes me think it's the same person.  I'd expect that if others start buying into his wall or getting too close to it that he'll take it away and the price will go above $125

in any case, the longer we stay below it, the more likely this wall will just vanish.

Does it even matter?  Sellers on Gox are either arbing or med/long term bulls.  The real money has got to be entering and leaving through the other exchanges.  You'd be crazy to buy on Gox's 10-20% premium, and if you actually WANT your $ you've got to sell somewhere else.  

Keep your eye on bitstamp, campbx (reflects US sentiment) and ESPECIALLY btcchina.  What I see is quite a rally on strong volume this past week (and similar past few weeks).  Also looks to me like % volume shifts heavily to those exchanges during rallies.  When nothing is happening, Gox takes a higher % volume (but lower overall volume) -- this is just trader/bot churn.  But with the action hits, its on the other exchanges as you can see by the lower % volume on Gox.  

Look to the other exchanges for the action that is defining this market.

[justusranvier]

You'd be crazy to buy on Gox's 10-20% premium

The only reason to buy on Gox would be if the volume of BTC you want to buy simply isn't available on any other exchange.

[adamstgBit]

It looks to me like someone's accumulating everything within a $5 range below each higher high since the 19th.

If we see $118/$119 I suspect it will shoot back up into the $123-$125 range again.

It seems that way, I suspect that the owner of the $125 wall is getting people to bid in front of him, then when there's a lot of asks he's buying them all up.  I've noticed that those big buys always seem to go up to his wall but never buy into it, which also makes me think it's the same person.  I'd expect that if others start buying into his wall or getting too close to it that he'll take it away and the price will go above $125

in any case, the longer we stay below it, the more likely this wall will just vanish.

Does it even matter?  Sellers on Gox are either arbing or med/long term bulls.  The real money has got to be entering and leaving through the other exchanges.  You'd be crazy to buy on Gox's 10-20% premium, and if you actually WANT your $ you've got to sell somewhere else.  

Keep your eye on bitstamp, campbx (reflects US sentiment) and ESPECIALLY btcchina.  What I see is quite a rally on strong volume this past week (and similar past few weeks).  Also looks to me like % volume shifts heavily to those exchanges during rallies.  When nothing is happening, Gox takes a higher % volume (but lower overall volume) -- this is just trader/bot churn.  But with the action hits, its on the other exchanges as you can see by the lower % volume on Gox.  

Look to the other exchanges for the action that is defining this market.

Gox matters, its still by far the most volume, altho the first mover advantage is wearing off slowly.  this is good for everyone else. and price is rising everywhere else too, maybe its not GOX price but everyone is clearly on the same trend, as it should be, this is bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

[Walsoraj]

i don't feel right unless i get Gox'd at least once a week.

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[gandhibt]

the main question on my mind, which I probably won't get an answer...

The rule of thumb is if you don't know what the market is going to do or the conditions on the market are abnormal, stay away from the market.

good rule, that would probably end up ruling out a majority of those involved in "the market"

Yes 

Isn't USD a "market"? So you are holding USD, but don't know shit what the USD "market" is up to?

[ChartBuddy]

[gandhibt]

It looks to me like someone's accumulating everything within a $5 range below each higher high since the 19th.

If we see $118/$119 I suspect it will shoot back up into the $123-$125 range again.

It seems that way, I suspect that the owner of the $125 wall is getting people to bid in front of him, then when there's a lot of asks he's buying them all up.  I've noticed that those big buys always seem to go up to his wall but never buy into it, which also makes me think it's the same person.  I'd expect that if others start buying into his wall or getting too close to it that he'll take it away and the price will go above $125

The Hammer in the works https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.msg736626#msg736626

[xxjs]

the main question on my mind, which I probably won't get an answer...

The rule of thumb is if you don't know what the market is going to do or the conditions on the market are abnormal, stay away from the market.

good rule, that would probably end up ruling out a majority of those involved in "the market"

Yes  

Isn't USD a "market"? So you are holding USD, but don't know shit what the USD "market" is up to?

Exactly. You can not be in or out, you are always in, because all assets are priced in a marked. The "being out" in common language must be more precisely defined to mean being in the most safe asset available. Traditionally, that is the fiat currency of the land, but if you believe there is going to be volatility in the fiat, bitcoin is the place to be in when you want to be out.

[ChartBuddy]

[MoreFun]

Anyone?