Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

[ShroomsKit]

BTW, 66% of my trading stash joined the "investment stash" on a paper wallet. I sold the remaining 33% at $120 and requested a withdrawal to try some arbitrage with Bitstamp... The money didn't arrived to my account yet, so after the last rally my arbitraging move isn't looking too good ATM.

I don't understand this move. The best way to arbitrage is to buy bitcoins on Bitstamp and sell them on Gox, doing it the other way around like you did carries a huge amount of risk since you have to wait for the funds to arrive from Gox first. Why did you try it this way?

Well, because I bought back in full between $67 and $105. My trading position was all BTC, so I had to sell on Gox before buying on Bitstamp to sell again on Gox, etc. etc. etc...

Plus, the point here is to see how fast I can move fiat from Gox to Bitstamp in a recurrent way - both fiat and BTC have to move quickly for arbitrage to work. BTC is quick, fiat not so much...

If your fiat arrives at Bitstamp in less than 4 weeks, you should be able to buy there at the very bottom.
And if arrives in less than 2 weeks, you might be able to take advantage of the fake return to bull market.

You just don't stop, do you?

[ChartBuddy]

[JimboToronto]

BTC is quick, fiat not so much...

Understatement of the year. 

[JimboToronto]

fake return to bull market.

LOL $30-$50 capitulation here we come. 

[adamstgBit]

[ChartBuddy]

[ardana123]

180 by last friday

This is correct if you calculate the "true" price of bitcoin. I calculate we are at true $210 right now. Gox shows price minus $50 evil whale suppression and minus $30 fed gov oppression. So in real reality, my predictions are rarely wrong

$300 True Price by Friday. Guaranteed.

So what will increase by $90?  The price, the whale suppression, or the gov oppression?  Probably a combination of all 3, but in what proportions?

It is a very complicated equation, beyond your noob analysis. Just trust me on this one

I have a degree in Mathematics.  Try me.

yes because there are any mathematics at play in this bitcoin market 

[CMMPro]

Bid side is getting steep again! Another Tsunami on the way?

[adamstgBit]

Bid side is getting steep again! Another Tsunami on the way?

yes.

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[Wekkel]

Bid side is getting steep again! Another Tsunami on the way?

It could take until Sunday again....

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[kehtolo]

Bid side is getting steep again! Another Tsunami on the way?

yes.

Please forgive such a n00b question.. (but I am a n00b!) --

When i see bid depth like this, quite a bit higher than the ask depth - doesn't this imply the simple priciple of supply and demand.

i.e. -  there is more demand than suppply... ergo, price will rise??

At least that is what i assume, please correct me if i am wrong, and a quick / simple explanation too if possible,

(I admit to eing a n00b, i admit i know very littel, but i also want to learn)

[ChartBuddy]

[Ares]

Bid side is getting steep again! Another Tsunami on the way?

yes.

Please forgive such a n00b question.. (but I am a n00b!) --

When i see bid depth like this, quite a bit higher than the ask depth - doesn't this imply the simple priciple of supply and demand.

i.e. -  there is more demand than suppply... ergo, price will rise??

At least that is what i assume, please correct me if i am wrong, and a quick / simple explanation too if possible,

(I admit to eing a n00b, i admit i know very littel, but i also want to learn)

Yes and no.

While the law of supply and demand is certainly the driver behind the Bitcoin price, you have to also consider that a lot of people don't have their coins or USD on the exchange right now and that graph only represents people who have staked their position.

What really changes the price of Bitcoin in these early days are the whales (large BTC holders/wealthy individuals). Once you think you know where things are going, a huge whale will splash in out of nowhere and change everything.

Just look at this recent run-up. Nothing on that graph indicated it, and all that happened was some whale came in and bought up a ton of coins out of nowhere.

Right now the Bid depth does indicate buying pressure and thus a higher price, but there could be someone just waiting to put in a massive sell order, changing the whole game. I find this unlikely though, because the (so far) positive talks with US regulators is a HUGE step in the right direction and brings a lot of confidence.

[kehtolo]

Please forgive such a n00b question.. (but I am a n00b!) --

When i see bid depth like this, quite a bit higher than the ask depth - doesn't this imply the simple priciple of supply and demand.

i.e. -  there is more demand than suppply... ergo, price will rise??

At least that is what i assume, please correct me if i am wrong, and a quick / simple explanation too if possible,

(I admit to eing a n00b, i admit i know very littel, but i also want to learn)
[/quote]

Yes and no.

While the law of supply and demand is certainly the driver behind the Bitcoin price, you have to also consider that a lot of people don't have their coins or USD on the exchange right now and that graph only represents people who have staked their position.

What really changes the price of Bitcoin in these early days are the whales (large BTC holders/wealthy individuals). Once you think you know where things are going, a huge whale will splash in out of nowhere and change everything.

Just look at this recent run-up. Nothing on that graph indicated it, and all that happened was some whale came in and bought up a ton of coins out of nowhere.

Right now the Bid depth does indicate buying pressure and thus a higher price, but there could be someone just waiting to put in a massive sell order, changing the whole game. I find this unlikely though, because the (so far) positive talks with US regulators is a HUGE step in the right direction and brings a lot of confidence.
[/quote]

Cool, thanks for the explanation. At least my fundamentals were nearly right.

I have witnssed the large buys of this week, and 1+1=2 jumped to the conclusion that as a result of these positive meetings on Capitol hill, then someone felt confident enough to make a buy.
However, this may not be the case. It could have been someone ith a large $$ reserve on Gox waiting in the wings, and decided to co.incide their buy if a good outcome was reached by those meetings. (think about it, they couldn't have been at the meeting and 2 hours later hav $1M sitting on Gox ready to buy.. how could that happen?)
So, it was more likely someone that had reserves sitting there waiting for the right time.. Coujld it of been an attempt to drive the price up on the back of confidence coming from hese meetings? That's my hunch anyway.
Probably trying to move the price up before dumping large reserves of BTC at their desired price. Pump and dump.. except it hasn't worked.
But we seem to be more or less stable around $130 (95-96 EUR)
In short, who the hell knows whats going to happen next? but i totally find this all very intruiging.
I'm not a day trader by any means.. I'm buy and hold long. So short term flutuations don't annoy me, but thy definitely interest me.