Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

[Super T]

This is a little out of date in some respects, but with recent events it may come back sharply into focus soon. I was curious to see just how much Silk Road was contributing to what was a strong underlying growth trend in Bitcoin price - and the answer seems to support the claims that it was almost entirely responsible (more than I expected, see below).

I doubt there's many people that believe Bitcoin got to the current giddy heights through mass adoption or genuine utility, so the next question is what happens to Bitcoin if the factors driving it up there disappear along with Silk Road?




p.s. I recently got all my money out of gox (via the bitcoin route) after being told by them that it would be 5 weeks before I could get the first 1000 euros out, then 20 days per additional 1000. Apologies if this is already widely known, but the more people that know this the better.

Correlation != causation

[David M]

This is a little out of date in some respects, but with recent events it may come back sharply into focus soon. I was curious to see just how much Silk Road was contributing to what was a strong underlying growth trend in Bitcoin price - and the answer seems to support the claims that it was almost entirely responsible (more than I expected, see below).

Can you add one more data point to that chart please?

Attribute: Value
Members: 0
Price: $200

I look forward to subscribing to any of your newsletters.

[fr33d0miz3r]

Can you add one more data point to that chart please?

Attribute: Value
Members: 0
Price: $200

I look forward to subscribing to any of your newsletters.

A few months later...

Members: 0
Price: $0

[David M]

A few months later...

Members: 0
Price: $0

Do you sell 3 month $20USD/BTC Puts?  I'd be very interested.

[Adrian-x]

Can you add one more data point to that chart please?

Attribute: Value
Members: 0
Price: $200

I look forward to subscribing to any of your newsletters.

A few months later...

Members: 0
Price: $0

A while back someone concluded SR was doing about $2M per month - XBT was at about $10 given that SR accounted for over 90% of the economy looking at the money velocity and the available coins it would be reasonable to assume a valuation of $2 per coin. However Bitcoin jumped in value to around $266.
The net take home was Bitcoin is 1% currency and 5% money remittances and 94% a store of value.

It's value is not reflected in the economy but in its potential. If anything I blame the lost year of 2012 to the premature hype created by SR that brought on the June 2011 bubble a few months too soon after rising from $0.008 to $0.08 followed by $0.1 to $1.0

The expectation is we will see a new order of magnitude in evaluation soon. Sell if you must I'm all in this time around.

[ChartBuddy]

[lucas.sev]

A few months later...

Members: 0
Price: $0

Do you sell 3 month $20USD/BTC Puts?  I'd be very interested.

I can sell you these puts.

[Rampion]

A lot of talk about panic, but the fact is that the bearapocalypse fears faded away, BTC was at $100 a couple of months ago and just a few days ago it was at $130ish.

Even if we correct hard till $165ish, that would be a pretty solid short term uptrend.

If we go below the recent "stable" price of $130ish we might see some anxiety, until then I'm just seeing traders realizing profits but no fear, anxiety or panic whatsoever.

When and if the SEC approves the BTC ETF we can just go one way: up, to the moon. Fingers crossed...

[David M]

I can sell you these puts.

I'm sorry you got caught in the fray.  That was the most sarcastic trade I could think of at the time.

[gizmoh]

Increase in ask sum, we are going to test lower grounds, its going to pop soon I believe.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

This is a little out of date in some respects, but with recent events it may come back sharply into focus soon. I was curious to see just how much Silk Road was contributing to what was a strong underlying growth trend in Bitcoin price - and the answer seems to support the claims that it was almost entirely responsible (more than I expected, see below).
I doubt there's many people that believe Bitcoin got to the current giddy heights through mass adoption or genuine utility, so the next question is what happens to Bitcoin if the factors driving it up there disappear along with Silk Road?

Correlation != causation

This, both price and silkroad user number are expected to rise with bitcoin adoption (and thus time).  I bet there are other services/metrics that show a similar correlation with the bitcoin price (bitcointalk speculation posts perhaps). You can't conclude from this that silk road is the principal driver of price.

[ChartBuddy]

[maz]

Annnnd it's tipped over into the 180's

[Dhuum]

 

[only]

Why are we going down?

[Grouver (BtcBalance)]

Cause Bitstamp is acting strange.

[San1ty]

Cause Bitstamp is acting strange.

What's up with bitstamp?

[maz]

Funny how it goes from 189 to 183 in a burst within minutes, yet 200-199 and 190-189 took forever...do people try to defend a price point and hold it up? (trading noob here)

[San1ty]

Funny how it goes from 189 to 183 in a burst within minutes, yet 200-199 and 190-189 took forever...do people try to defend a price point and hold it up? (trading noob here)

Your noobishness is excused :-). It's called volume my friend!