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Question: When will we see a new ATH?
October - 20 (25.6%)
November - 13 (16.7%)
December - 25 (32.1%)
2022 - 12 (15.4%)
After 2022 - 8 (10.3%)
Total Voters: 78

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25445022 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13+ users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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July 20, 2020, 06:58:45 AM



Since bitcoin has probably not reached its logistic inflection point yet, the results of a logistic regression are bound to be a crapshoot.
$10 million is about as good a guess as any other.
Here's a link to the equation that the regression calculator returned for my data
https://cdn.mathpix.com/snip/images/xJ-Ks3hpZ0PB2dqkwFNkk9bHFi45RXJpZund7Ase0ds.rendered.fullsize.png
You can manipulate the parameters to get the curve you want.
The calculator I used: https://www.aatbio.com/tools/four-parameter-logistic-4pl-curve-regression-online-calculator

You need to look at the logistic curve on a linear chart to see the familiar symmetrical "sigmoid" shape with the inflection point at center.
The curve's appearance is deceptive on a log chart.  That log chart makes it look like the inflection point happened several years ago.
The inflection point of the logistic curve I posted is actually in April 2029.



+1 WOsMerit

Glad you like my pictures.
Illustrative chart of the logistic, don't take at face value numerically.  Shows how the linear chart typically squashes data in the lower orders of magnitude.  You can barely see the price data in red.  And you can see how unreliable an extrapolation that extends orders of magnitude beyond the data.



This curve-fitting exercise comparing the logistic and polynomial models does have some value if you don't take it too far, or too literally.  At least, it directs one's attention at the long term.
I didn't curve-fit the stock to flow model, which paints an unrealistic picture in the long run.  And I don't bother with models that put time on a log scale, which is nonsensical.

Of course, time is logarithmic, but it doesn't start on January 3, 2009.  It started 14 billion years ago, which means that for all practical purposes time is linear in our lives and for millions of years before and after.
http://www.turbulence-online.com/Publications/log_time_cosmology_final_printed.pdf

Even though you are asserting a 14 billion year timeline, any kind of specific new invention that has paradigm shifting attributes is going to see a curve that is a lot more tightly packed, including the fact that some inventions might have births and deaths that are on very short time horizons, and for the sake of us mere mortal humans, we can live, and prosper, before we die by picking the right horses during our short time here.

We are going to lose some of the picture, even when we talk about time periods that are longer than 20 years, even if we might make some investment decisions for longer time periods, we can also change our investment allotments during shorter time horizons, even make substantial changes every few years, even if we might have some assets that kind of end up being killer all life performers that we might not have expected to be so in the beginning of our investment lives, whether we start investing when we are teenagers or in our twenties or thirties, but even with that if we did not have parents to really guide us with those kinds of choices, we might be stuck with some of our investment choices, too in terms of longer (lifelong) implications that we did not realize when we started down the road of investing our time and/or money in such direction.
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July 20, 2020, 07:31:51 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), LFC_Bitcoin (1), nutildah (1), aesma (1), ivomm (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Bitcoin trading in such a tight range for so long must be a real PIA for the traders.

I see many posts predicting a dramatic breakout to the upside and I blame the S2F model for the groupthink. Bitcoin always seems to find a way to surprise everyone and cause maximum carnage. Things do look bullish, maybe the time isn't right? Who knows.

Anyhow, I've been reading this thread for almost 7 years. 7 years! People come and go. We have had (and still have) our fair share of trolls, spammers, shit coiners, and arseholes. I really wish they'd all just f-off, but instead, I block them until they drop-off. Joffe and roach come to mind....

Every now and then we get a few newbies who are intelligent, thoughtful, and articulate - they're the people that keep it interesting in here. It's sad when they leave but life goes on.

Bob - thanks for your posts and know you will be missed. I'm playing a long game and will be hanging around a bit more.


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July 20, 2020, 07:55:42 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

https://btc.com/stats/diff

Halfway into the two weeks difficulty period. Next difficulty adjustment expected to be +6% and ATH. The Bitcoin network is in top notch conduction, bullish!


Next difficulty adjustment in 24 blocks. Expected +9.5% to 17.29T, which is an All Time High (previous ATH was 16.55T around the halving).

Bitcoin boring or bearish? Far from!


Halfway into the next two week difficulty period and another +6.37% estimated towards a new ATH of 18.45T.

Fundamentals solid, miners extremely bullish. This is per two weeks (!), mind blowing considering the current already beyond imagination hashes per second.

Look beyond the current price and you need to wear Cool.
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July 20, 2020, 08:54:08 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Bob - thanks for your posts and know you will be missed. I'm playing a long game and will be hanging around a bit more.


I hope you understand a piece of rusty pipe is now dangerously close to your anus?  Grin Grin Grin
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July 20, 2020, 09:02:21 AM

mind blowing considering the current already beyond imagination hashes per second.

True... other than bitcoin, the only time those types of numbers ever come into play are calculating the number of atoms in things or the distances between stars.
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July 20, 2020, 09:59:56 AM

@cryptosommelier
It looks like bitcoin is right on schedule




Better image -

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July 20, 2020, 10:03:05 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)


...
LFC_Bitcoin
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July 20, 2020, 10:09:01 AM
Last edit: July 20, 2020, 10:26:09 AM by LFC_Bitcoin


...



Expect a price move then surely.....

@MrSurfvivor
Gonna blow 🌋 #Bitcoin 

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July 20, 2020, 10:54:05 AM

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July 20, 2020, 11:20:48 AM
Merited by marcus_of_augustus (21), cAPSLOCK (5), LoyceV (2), bitebits (2), dragonvslinux (1), strawbs (1)

This may likely be the last text post I make on this site.

Going to make an attempt to just post relevant market information without any comment. No more meming. Increased my ignore list, as an unfortunate side effect of everything that has gone on, after much self-reflection. Really have no desire to interact with people here any more, but recognize the thread has its place of importance in the Bitcoin sphere, with regards to staying on top of news.

Hope I'm able, at the very least, to share what I see happening on Twitter.

Good or Bad. Draw your own conclusions sorta thing.
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July 20, 2020, 11:25:23 AM

<merit dump>
Well that was unexpected and generous.
Thank you kindly, Bob. I will endeavor to pay forward to worthy posts.
Cheers and good luck.
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July 20, 2020, 11:27:43 AM
Merited by infofront (1), aesma (1)

30-day volatility reaches new 18-month low of 1.14%, as previously anticipated it can now briefly drop below 1% before a big move in either direction. Worth remembering that last time volatility dropped below 1% in November 2018 it lasted one day before a 50% move within a few weeks. Given the lack of return of volume & volitility in previous weeks as previously expected, price is now ready to make a big move in the coming days imo, as opposed to the coming weeks. Don't get caught with your pants down:



Unsurprisingly price action supports this theory of an impending increase of volatility as btc sits at the end of conflicting bullish & bearish patterns:



Currently remaining neutral until confirmation, while having a slightly bearish bias.

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July 20, 2020, 01:53:22 PM

I just hope that it won't ever be necessary to add WO next to BCH & BSV:

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July 20, 2020, 02:16:29 PM

Good afternoon WO!
A boring observation of $9,166

I just hope that it won't ever be necessary to add WO next to BCH & BSV
Who give a F**K to shitcoin?  



Are you saying that Bitcoin finally is stable. 😜
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July 20, 2020, 02:58:56 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Continuing with a mind-numbing lack of price movement... currently $9180USD/$12452CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

At least it's not going down. We need some real upward movement to wake this place up. Too much boring negativity.

C'mon Bitcoin. Rise and shine.
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July 20, 2020, 03:10:53 PM

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July 20, 2020, 03:20:18 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), infofront (1), jojo69 (1)

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July 20, 2020, 03:34:12 PM

I just hope that it won't ever be necessary to add WO next to BCH & BSV
Who give a F**K to shitcoin?  

You didn't get me, but it's OK... Nobody gives a fuck about shitcoins, but we do give a fuck about WO...

All good, keep HoDLing and in a few months' time the thread will be flooded with Carolina memes, I'm sure of it.
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July 20, 2020, 03:58:08 PM
Last edit: July 20, 2020, 04:54:30 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by El duderino_ (3), infofront (1)

Bitcoin trading in such a tight range for so long must be a real PIA for the traders.

I see many posts predicting a dramatic breakout to the upside and I blame the S2F model for the groupthink. Bitcoin always seems to find a way to surprise everyone and cause maximum carnage. Things do look bullish, maybe the time isn't right? Who knows.

Your phraseology here, is quite strange.  Do you believe the S2F model is misleading?  If it has a lot of good ideas then why be hating on it heater?  Who fucking cares if a lot of people believe it?  And, really, if you walked down the street and you asked people if they heard about bitcoin, and then once you got a positive answer, then you lead them down the path of telling you about S2F model, how many folks are really going to understand what the fuck is stock to flow out of that already low group that actually understands what the fuck is bitcoin?

By the way, when you are walking down Random street, there are going to be a lot of folks who say that they heard the word bitcoin, but there are likely only going to be a handful of them that actually can tell you what bitcoin is from a kind of understandable and meaningful perspective and even fewer who have taken the next step of actually acquiring some bitcoin and still hold it (or buy it on a regular basis).


Anyhow, I've been reading this thread for almost 7 years. 7 years! People come and go. We have had (and still have) our fair share of trolls, spammers, shit coiners, and arseholes. I really wish they'd all just f-off, but instead, I block them until they drop-off. Joffe and roach come to mind....

Every now and then we get a few newbies who are intelligent, thoughtful, and articulate - they're the people that keep it interesting in here. It's sad when they leave but life goes on.

For sure.. welcome newbies.. and yes, some of us regulars can be a bit too much to handle sometimes in terms of our repetition of ideas or our imposition of ideas, and it is really nice to get a feisty newbie, as long as they are open to bitcoin ideas and not pumping misleading talking points..   yet frequently, if they are actual people, then it can be quite good to bat around some ideas, even though some of us do tend to gravitate towards certain topics... sorry to bore you peeps with some of my repetition.   Tongue Tongue

Bob - thanks for your posts and know you will be missed. I'm playing a long game and will be hanging around a bit more.

The old flaming Bob is merely a memory.. and of course, some of us have quoted some of his posts along the way, and hopefully he can  recover out of his seemingly immature bridge-burning status - and like many members suggested, already, time away from the thread might be one of the better ways of transitioning into something that is more healthy, even though he still seems to want to engage and cannot even be saved from himself.. which is probably not good for himself, but who needs armchair psychology here, anyhow?  .. I have probably said too much, already.. it is not like some of us, including yours truly, is going to be nice to someone who has been employing some of his recent levels of drama...  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

By the way Heater, it would be nice if you posted more frequently.  I did a quick back of the napkin calculation to see that on average you have posted about once per week.... Up your posting game, here!!!!!!!   Tongue Tongue  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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July 20, 2020, 04:00:16 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I agree that this is probable, but the question arises..when will it stop? Never? Are we at a verge of basic income and MMT?
Too much resistance to those ideas, so it is unlikely to happen. However, passing every 6 mo a 2-3 trillion bill does not seem likely either.
At the moment, it is clearly gold and high beta stocks that benefit the most. Bitcoin is not in play and I wonder why. maybe because it was in a deep correction for too long and lost its appeal with the fast money. It could be temporary, though. At least, this is my hope, but the whole apple-cart is upside down.

If the trend described below is true, then we would have a deflationary impulse as well:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/19/wage-cuts-economy-crisis-368508

Basically stock market speculators (in the US) have a free ride. The market goes up they win, the market goes down the Fed and congress put more money into it so it goes up again. They can't lose. With BTC, you can lose.
That is until they don’t, it is true that what you describe has been the norm during the last decades but at some point it will be impossible to maintain the system as it is and even those that believed they could privatize profits and socialize losses will find out this cannot last forever.

I really think the current pandemic has accelerated this process and while I don't wish to see such a huge crisis in my lifetime I’m convinced this is inevitable and taking precautions for that day is the only thing I can do, and as you may guess holding some bitcoin is part of my preparations, and while some may complain about the sideways movement of bitcoin this is great for anyone looking to increase their stash.
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