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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25444527 times)
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July 21, 2020, 04:04:28 PM

You could always cross check this against "excess deaths" which are much higher this year that last or over the last 5/10 year averages. That's a lot harder to hide/fudge as you would have to go back into the past to fudge the numbers. And I doubt either Trump or Biden has a hot tub time machine.

Yes, last I checked UK excess deaths were up as much as, and indeed more than, COVID-19 reported deaths. If Covid deaths were predominantly categorisation errors, then we shouldn't have observed this increase.
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July 21, 2020, 04:07:36 PM

[snip]
Jay, Jay, Jay.  So many questions.  Do you drink coffee all day?
The projection is a periodic function.  The peaks are equidistant on the time axis.
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July 21, 2020, 04:12:33 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (1)

You could always cross check this against "excess deaths" which are much higher this year that last or over the last 5/10 year averages. That's a lot harder to hide/fudge as you would have to go back into the past to fudge the numbers. And I doubt either Trump or Biden has a hot tub time machine.

Yes, last I checked UK excess deaths were up as much as, and indeed more than, COVID-19 reported deaths. If Covid deaths were predominantly categorisation errors, then we shouldn't have observed this increase.

So Corona deaths are not real?

The filled up hospitals and the cooler trailers outside of hospitals are not real?  Those people were going to die anyhow, or at least their numbers are not larger than otherwise seasonal variance?

I am surely NOT against measurements that might question various aspects of the narrative being overblown, and surely I know that some places, including the USA, have been designing their medical systems to inadequately handle influxes, but still there seems to be lots of corona cases and insufficient capacity to deal with it - and even seeming regional variance that shows more deaths in areas that have taken fewer precautionary measures.  The seeming ongoing Corona impacts on medical systems are made up, or exaggerated?
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July 21, 2020, 04:18:37 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

In case we didn't already know it, here's more proof that retards use coinbase.

Quote
Coinbase says it prevented over 1,000 customers from sending $280,000 worth of bitcoin to Twitter hackers
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/72200/coinbase-says-it-prevented-over-1000-customers-from-sending-280000-worth-of-bitcoin-to-twitter-hackers

IIRC the twitter morons only got about 60k from everywhere else.

Talk about inept scammers.
Centralization coming to the rescue, huh? Don’t worry they will lose their coins during the next big profile scam
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July 21, 2020, 04:30:37 PM
Merited by infofront (1), rolling (1)

Ok, however insurance companies have a vested interest to pay out as little as possible, so if a hospital was doing this they would be nailed to a cross in short order. I doubt the value increased would offset the risks taken so probably not.

Not true. They just pass on the costs to their customers in the form of increased premiums. I worked in the anti-fraud division of a major health insurer for a number of years. It was depressing to see exactly how much hospitals can get away with and how little the insurance companies are willing to do about it. There's a lot of dynamics at play here, like hospital physicians sitting on the medical boards of the insurance companies. The insurance companies have no interest to pay out as little as possible, I promise you.

Overall I'd call bullshit on the assertion that (US) hospitals are false reporting cases for profit. It doesn't benefit the hospital, people with vested interests are watching, and the government is *very* invested in lower numbers anyway.

Of course it benefits the hospital as its extra revenue, and that's what American hospitals are all about. The entire system has been unchecked for far too long, which is why American health insurance is in the abysmal state it currently is.

Obama tried to make a dent in the problem but was met with fierce opposition from insurance lobbyists. The bullet in the foot of Obamacare was the lack of a public option. Without that component, insurance companies have no reason to remain honest about anything. Neither do the hospitals.

---

Frankly if you think the government is actually watching over what goes on with private health insurers then you really don't understand anything about what is actually going on. Public insurance is another story as it is a federal crime to commit claims fraud with medicare or medicaid money.
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July 21, 2020, 04:30:43 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)


We have no such made-up tragedy or dilemma in bitcoin.

Accordingly the above snapshot remains misleading (and likely meaningless) as fuck in terms of what it is telling us about how bitcoin and stocks are moving similarly over a period of 2-3 months.

Who gives any fucks about that? including the idea of short term coincidental correlation.

You really believe we should be allowing this kind of white noise bulllshit news affect our thinkenings about bitcoin fundamentals or its possible future price performance, whether we are considering in the coming months or couple of years or even in terms of 4 year fractals or whatever longer time periods?

Zoom the fuck out!!!!!

 Tongue


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Why do you criticize so much?  And read so much into what someone types?

My thoughts on this are simple.

Money is being printed like never in the history of the world.
Boomers (Mostly fund managers and up) are shoveling it into stonks.
Stonks benefit more from money printing than corn.

When boomers actually catch the digital gold meme they will start shoveling their excess money into corn.

There are no tragedies, or dilemmas.  Nor major proclamations.
But during this historically interesting time of extreme monetary stimulus we are clearly seeing Nasdaq and gold benefit more than the new kid on the block.

That is boomers.  Plain and simple.  That's why the beneficiaries are gold and stocks.

The fact is they have 80% of the money.  At some point they will reach a knowledge tipping point and start shoveling our way.  The extra smart ones have started already.

This is the herd we have been waiting for for years.

To me that hypothesis is extremely strong, and bullish.
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July 21, 2020, 04:30:57 PM

[snip]
Jay, Jay, Jay.  So many questions.  Do you drink coffee all day?
The projection is a periodic function.  The peaks are equidistant on the time axis.

Looked like I accurately described the peaks of your previous graph, so probably we are looking at your own graph differently  - and yes, I am wearing my glasses.. so I would appreciate a more substantive answer because this is not about me, kell, kell, kell... *(your name has a violent rather than cheery feelening, by the way) Shocked
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July 21, 2020, 04:39:19 PM
Merited by lightfoot (2), vapourminer (1)

Ok, however insurance companies have a vested interest to pay out as little as possible, so if a hospital was doing this they would be nailed to a cross in short order. I doubt the value increased would offset the risks taken so probably not.

Not true. They just pass on the costs to their customers in the form of increased premiums. I worked in the anti-fraud division of a major health insurer for a number of years. It was depressing to see exactly how much hospitals can get away with and how little the insurance companies are willing to do about it. There's a lot of dynamics at play here, like hospital physicians sitting on the medical boards of the insurance companies. The insurance companies have no interest to pay out as little as possible, I promise you.

Overall I'd call bullshit on the assertion that (US) hospitals are false reporting cases for profit. It doesn't benefit the hospital, people with vested interests are watching, and the government is *very* invested in lower numbers anyway.

Of course it benefits the hospital as its extra revenue, and that's what American hospitals are all about. The entire system has been unchecked for far too long, which is why American health insurance is in the abysmal state it currently is.

Obama tried to make a dent in the problem but was met with fierce opposition from insurance lobbyists. The bullet in the foot of Obamacare was the lack of a public option. Without that component, insurance companies have no reason to remain honest about anything. Neither do the hospitals.

I have no doubt that your points above are valid.  And also believe COVID is being used to financial advantage by various medical institutions.

That said, I currently work for one of the largest non profit healthcare systems in the US.  I do not know how it is looking for other (especially large) systems but we are burning cash at a stupefying rate and COVID is not a net help to our bottom line. 

In fact I believe we are in the 9 (and maybe 10 by this point) figure RED in lost revenues for 2020 so far. This is primarily caused by the fact we are having to cancel all "non essential" services.  In May, I think, I took a bike ride by one of our largest Entities.  The ED, and the L&D had action, but the ENTIRE REST of the campus was a ghost town.  I rode up and down several multi story parking decks, usually full to bursting that were entirely ghost-towns. no one there.

It is cataclysmic.
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July 21, 2020, 04:48:15 PM


We have no such made-up tragedy or dilemma in bitcoin.

Accordingly the above snapshot remains misleading (and likely meaningless) as fuck in terms of what it is telling us about how bitcoin and stocks are moving similarly over a period of 2-3 months.

Who gives any fucks about that? including the idea of short term coincidental correlation.

You really believe we should be allowing this kind of white noise bulllshit news affect our thinkenings about bitcoin fundamentals or its possible future price performance, whether we are considering in the coming months or couple of years or even in terms of 4 year fractals or whatever longer time periods?

Zoom the fuck out!!!!!

 Tongue


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Why do you criticize so much?  And read so much into what someone types?

Gosh.. didn't "we" have a bad day?

My comment is about substance and not about you.. nor is it about Phil, even though Phil made the graph showing such short term correlation.

Accordingly, sometimes graphs can be misleading if they are not described (or categorized) for what they are.

No need to take strong language personally (I still like uie (and Phil) a very lot, cAPSLOCK.. maybe bob a bit less in recent times)  #nohomo


My thoughts on this are simple.

Money is being printed like never in the history of the world.
Boomers (Mostly fund managers and up) are shoveling it into stonks.
Stonks benefit more from money printing than corn.

So?  Do you think king daddy cares about any of this short term bullshit?


When boomers actually catch the digital gold meme they will start shoveling their excess money into corn.

 bitcoin does not need boomers, and sure some boomers will come along, but likely most or the boomers are already set, even if the value of their savings is likely going to continue to be fucked, but boomers are likely going to do better than younger folks in these matters... I mean to the extent that they have developed various kinds of investments and are not living in debt or pay check to paycheck .. like the younger folks who had not had as much time to invest or even to acquire property or various property and assets that are going to cause them to be less desperate in these ongoing and evolving shenanigan times.

We probably do not disagree materially or significantly about the complications of the shithole that whole societies are in...


There are no tragedies, or dilemmas.  Nor major proclamations.

 I am talking about short term correlations that are shown in the chart.

I am not talking about the bullshit of traditional institutions and the likelihood that bitcoin is going to do better.. we agree about those things.. quite likely.


But during this historically interesting time of extreme monetary stimulus we are clearly seeing Nasdaq and gold benefit more than the new kid on the block.

That is boomers.  Plain and simple.  That's why the beneficiaries are gold and stocks.

Could be.

Bitcoin is also going to benefit, and I would rather have my money in bitcoin rather than in gold and stocks, but do what you like.
 


The fact is they have 80% of the money.  At some point they will reach a knowledge tipping point and start shoveling our way.  The extra smart ones have started already.

 sure some of them will come over, but none of them are immortal, either.   Cry Cry


This is the herd we have been waiting for for years.

 Maybe you are more rosie than me about the short term gravitation of mass adoption value into bitcoin?   I doubt that bitcoin needs mass adoption in order to continue to prosper and continue to have value gravitate into it, whether it comes from boomers or younger folks or some combination of factors.   I am not really making any predictions in regards to shorter term gravitation of value into bitcoin dynamics... I am just saying that the chart is fucked up and misleading because it is too short term, so it is concretizing bad ideas.


To me that hypothesis is extremely strong, and bullish.

Fair enough.. we do not need to agree on specifics in order to agree that value is still gravitating into bitcoin, it is just a matter of how fast or from what demographics or from where, and I don't give too many shits about analyzing the various relative value specifics, so we probably do not really disagree in any kind of material or substantial way in those regards.. at least I am not going to put up much if any fight regarding some of your speculation specifics, even if I believe that it might play out a bit differently, I don't really care that much and am willing to just watch.. and no shortage of a hedge into bitcoin, which is the case for most of us longer term active WO participants.
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July 21, 2020, 04:51:54 PM

Breaking out of the super tight 1 Day Bollinger Band


is the boring time over?
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July 21, 2020, 04:55:00 PM
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I have no doubt that your points above are valid.  And also believe COVID is being used to financial advantage by various medical institutions.

That said, I currently work for one of the largest non profit healthcare systems in the US. 

BCBS... ah you poor bastard  Cheesy  Maybe its KP, either way... I hated everything about that industry. Fully rotten to the core. After getting fired for not backing down on a case against a fraudulent ophthalmologist who was billing the insurance plan for botox done on her crooked doctor pals, it took me one final job working for a vastly overpricing specialty drug insurance company before I said "that's it, I'd rather die than do this for another day," and I switched to self-employment afterward.

It hasn't been a cakewalk but I'm happy knowing I will never step foot in a cubicle ever again, working for completely corrupted fuckheads who value money over human life.

I do not know how it is looking for other (especially large) systems but we are burning cash at a stupefying rate and COVID is not a net help to our bottom line. 

And you know as well as I that the solution for that is increased premiums. Its not like the execs are going to suddenly take a paycut, and there likely won't be many (if any) layoffs involved. Its been this way for about 3 decades now.

It is cataclysmic.

Perhaps, but you are still an "essential employee", so there's that at least.
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July 21, 2020, 05:08:18 PM

I said "that's it, I'd rather die than do this for another day," and I switched to self-employment afterward.

It hasn't been a cakewalk but I'm happy knowing I will never step foot in a cubicle ever again, working for completely corrupted fuckheads who value money over human life.

Welcome to the free world. Congratulations.
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July 21, 2020, 05:26:01 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I have no doubt that your points above are valid.  And also believe COVID is being used to financial advantage by various medical institutions.

That said, I currently work for one of the largest non profit healthcare systems in the US. 

BCBS... ah you poor bastard  Cheesy  Maybe its KP, either way... I hated everything about that industry. Fully rotten to the core. After getting fired for not backing down on a case against a fraudulent ophthalmologist who was billing the insurance plan for botox done on her crooked doctor pals, it took me one final job working for a vastly overpricing specialty drug insurance company before I said "that's it, I'd rather die than do this for another day," and I switched to self-employment afterward.

It hasn't been a cakewalk but I'm happy knowing I will never step foot in a cubicle ever again, working for completely corrupted fuckheads who value money over human life.

I do not know how it is looking for other (especially large) systems but we are burning cash at a stupefying rate and COVID is not a net help to our bottom line.

And you know as well as I that the solution for that is increased premiums. Its not like the execs are going to suddenly take a paycut, and there likely won't be many (if any) layoffs involved. Its been this way for about 3 decades now.

It is cataclysmic.

Perhaps, but you are still an "essential employee", so there's that at least.

I do not work for a payor, but a hospital system.  And I am a highly specialized EHR analyst.  I am certainly replaceable, but we are sort of a rare breed.  Good ones even rarer.  I get to work 100% remote.  If bitcoin can do one more bull run, even if it's not as ridiculous as the previous ones, then I will go back to the business I worked in for most of my life which is music.  But until then healthcare pays well enough that I can send my children to college (which is an EQUALLY screwed up industry).  Music is a hard way to make money.  Well let me correct that.  It is an EASY way for *me* to make money, but not an easy way to make the KIND of money my current job allows. Wink
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July 21, 2020, 05:27:41 PM

I said "that's it, I'd rather die than do this for another day," and I switched to self-employment afterward.

It hasn't been a cakewalk but I'm happy knowing I will never step foot in a cubicle ever again, working for completely corrupted fuckheads who value money over human life.

Welcome to the free world. Congratulations.

Yeah, I am kind of the opposite of that, I guess.  Was a performing drummer, and studio owner for decades before accidentally getting into what I do now.  It's definitely a gilded cage.
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July 21, 2020, 05:31:59 PM

Breaking out of the super tight 1 Day Bollinger Band


is the boring time over?

To your point:



A good question...  but this would not be the first headfake corn has done.  The volume is not super exciting.  And it's seemed like there are participants in the market who really seem to want to keep it in a certain range.. or... maybe I am seeing things.

I would love to see it poke back above that BBand and close there.
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July 21, 2020, 05:41:07 PM

I said "that's it, I'd rather die than do this for another day," and I switched to self-employment afterward.

It hasn't been a cakewalk but I'm happy knowing I will never step foot in a cubicle ever again, working for completely corrupted fuckheads who value money over human life.

Welcome to the free world. Congratulations.

Yeah, I am kind of the opposite of that, I guess.  Was a performing drummer, and studio owner for decades before accidentally getting into what I do now.  It's definitely a gilded cage.

I do understand your plight. The main difference between us is I don't have kids, so you know, no expenses or considerations on that front. But the one thing we all (most of us) have in common is we are a bull run away from a better life, so cheers to that seemingly inevitable potential.
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July 21, 2020, 06:15:25 PM

Breaking out of the super tight 1 Day Bollinger Band


is the boring time over?

To your point:



A good question...  but this would not be the first headfake corn has done.  The volume is not super exciting.  And it's seemed like there are participants in the market who really seem to want to keep it in a certain range.. or... maybe I am seeing things.

I would love to see it poke back above that BBand and close there.

sooner or later they will run out of bitcoin Smiley
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July 21, 2020, 06:25:45 PM

the noon wall report at 11:25am

still sideways action until confirmation imo   

zooming out abit its still remarkably flatish looking

I think breaking above $9,529.63(weekly tenken-sen resistance) would be a good indicator on further continuation

#dyor
1h


unicat finds the Sun
4h

#stonkhands
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July 21, 2020, 06:49:37 PM
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You could always cross check this against "excess deaths" which are much higher this year that last or over the last 5/10 year averages. That's a lot harder to hide/fudge as you would have to go back into the past to fudge the numbers. And I doubt either Trump or Biden has a hot tub time machine.

Yes, last I checked UK excess deaths were up as much as, and indeed more than, COVID-19 reported deaths. If Covid deaths were predominantly categorisation errors, then we shouldn't have observed this increase.

A death in the UK is only a Covid death if the deceased tested positive for the disease - even if the death certificate states it was Covid-19.  

1. Given the testing issues the UK had, it is considered by many (including the Office Of National Statistics) that deaths are under-counted, not exaggerated.  

2. The apocryphal 'they put Covid on the death certificate' stories are not counted as official Covid deaths in the UK as it stands.

You are quite right that excess deaths indicate strongly there must have been more deaths, this is a commonly used statistical measure - and it is hugely off confirming the 'official government' statistics.  

That said, in this time where social media or biased media are now the main sources of 'accepted truth', real truth is a rare commodity; claimed by many, actually spoken by few.
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July 21, 2020, 07:06:25 PM

Ok, however insurance companies have a vested interest to pay out as little as possible, so if a hospital was doing this they would be nailed to a cross in short order. I doubt the value increased would offset the risks taken so probably not.

Not true. They just pass on the costs to their customers in the form of increased premiums. I worked in the anti-fraud division of a major health insurer for a number of years. It was depressing to see exactly how much hospitals can get away with and how little the insurance companies are willing to do about it. There's a lot of dynamics at play here, like hospital physicians sitting on the medical boards of the insurance companies. The insurance companies have no interest to pay out as little as possible, I promise you.


Right. It seems to me the insurance companies would want to pay out as much as possible. The more they pay out, the more they charge. The more they charge, the more profit they profit.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/05/25/613685732/why-your-health-insurer-doesnt-care-about-your-big-bills

Quote
Turns out, insurers don't have to decrease spending to make money. They just have to accurately predict how much the people they insure will cost. That way they can set premiums to cover those costs — adding about 20 percent for their administration and profit. If they're right, they make money. If they're wrong, they lose money. But, they aren't too worried if they guess wrong. They can usually cover losses by raising rates the following year.
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