Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[macsga]

No, I won't hold as long as I think there is opportunity to trade.

100 could settle me for life only if BTC completely explode.

500 or 1000 could do it earlier. And I think betting with trading to reach 500/1000 is much safer option than to bet BTC will be 20-30k worth one day.

It WILL explode. 100 will be more than enough. Then again... it's your life.

[wachtwoord]

I think betting with trading to reach 500/1000 is much safer option than to bet BTC will be 20-30k worth one day.

I think you are completely mis-estimating these odds, but good luck to ya

[mbets]

No, I won't hold as long as I think there is opportunity to trade.

100 could settle me for life only if BTC completely explode.

500 or 1000 could do it earlier. And I think betting with trading to reach 500/1000 is much safer option than to bet BTC will be 20-30k worth one day.

It WILL explode. 100 will be more than enough. Then again... it's your life.

you mean 100K?

[Vycid]

Of course you took the risk, lol... The fact you think you didn't is irrelevant completely. Risk is sometimes smaller, sometimes bigger but as soon as you send coins from your wallet you're at risk . I've had many trades that look like easy money that went bad or vice verse.

Yes, I do hold 100+ btc in various crypto investments. I do not think that is enough though.

You should hangout with Risto then. I find 100BTC perfectly enough for anyone. My advice is "Don't be greedy". All you have to do is hold.

No, I won't hold as long as I think there is opportunity to trade.

100 could settle me for life only if BTC completely explode.

500 or 1000 could do it earlier. And I think betting with trading to reach 500/1000 is much safer option than to bet BTC will be 20-30k worth one day.

You understand you will still have the ability to invest your money AFTER Bitcoin, right? If you walk away with the equivalent of 4 million USD, say, you could anticipate hedge fund returns averaging $300,000-400,000 a year without touching your principal. Read: with $4M capital you could realistically have an income of $300-400k without lifting a finger.

300-400k sounds pretty damn set for life.

I think most of us believe that success for Bitcoin means a price above $30k-40k.

[maz]

Even as a short-term bear I could see last night coming a mile away. It's a basic rule that the price crashes when everyones going to the moon, so with bitfinex totally shorted out last night and everyone expecting the drop, what was there left to do but buy back in when it didn't drop, now we're back up at the high 900's when we were almost finding a stable platform at high 800's low 900's. This bull/bear yoyo'ing could go on for weeks now because there wont be another rally for a while most likely.

I'd give it a day or two... THIS IS SPART... errr.. I mean Bitcoin.

I honestly can't see it Macsga, I mean the kind of mentality we have just now is like 'well we're up at ~900 now, so we may as well just rally up to 2k! lets go!', but in fact the rally which brought us to ~1240 and thus ~900 was several months of built up pressure and many positive factors including China, regardless of whether China was exploiting the ability to make quick bux through arbitrage or criminals were using it for laundering or just people in China getting on board. I think we have squeezed all of the juice out of this current 'bitcoin bull period' and to take it to the next level will require a slow period of a month or two to let the pressure build up again before the next explosion.

[Vycid]

Even as a short-term bear I could see last night coming a mile away. It's a basic rule that the price crashes when everyones going to the moon, so with bitfinex totally shorted out last night and everyone expecting the drop, what was there left to do but buy back in when it didn't drop, now we're back up at the high 900's when we were almost finding a stable platform at high 800's low 900's. This bull/bear yoyo'ing could go on for weeks now because there wont be another rally for a while most likely.

I'd give it a day or two... THIS IS SPART... errr.. I mean Bitcoin.

I honestly can't see it Macsga, I mean the kind of mentality we have just now is like 'well we're up at ~900 now, so we may as well just rally up to 2k! lets go!', but in fact the rally which brought us to ~1240 and thus ~900 was several months of built up pressure and many positive factors including China, regardless of whether China was exploiting the ability to make quick bux through arbitrage or criminals were using it for laundering or just people in China getting on board. I think we have squeezed all of the juice out of this current 'bitcoin bull period' and to take it to the next level will require a slow period of a month or two to let the pressure build up again before the next explosion.

Hey, I remember this argument... at $600 after the first correction.

We have no idea how much "pressure" is left.

[rpietila]

The significance of all this is that if we trade in a range for a few weeks it is megabullish. And right now it looks like we are going to (at worst) trade at a high range 850-1050 than a lower range 650-850.

Simply amazing. I expected more out of the bears honestly.

The bears are the ones who sold their coins and are waiting for it to go down.

The bulls are ones who have the coins and are hoping it to go up.

The funny thing is that neither bulls nor bears are in the position to influence the market to their desired direction (because they already made their own move). The success of either is dependent on how to make the other one fold. The forum (incorrectly) constantly talks about bulls buying and bears selling, which is not the case. An upward action is bear running to cover (unless it's virgin buying) and downward action is bulls panicking.

It is generally better to be bull, because the new money raises price on average 24% per month, which is really a lot.

When price has risen to much higher than the trend, however, it may be advantageous to be a bear. From now I will have 3 months to buy back at trendline at a wash, or up to 100% gain. Any number of negative things can happen meanwhile, short-term reducing the price, and my buyback method catches flashcrashes also.

The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore. If I am right, everyone who lost their shirt is bitter at me (I am very good in explaining how right I was ). If I am wrong, people whose general trackrecord is much weaker, are laughing at me. I have not made my 51% APR by listening to other people of course, but I also don't want to argue with them.

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

[gandhibt]

I have been saying, but it seems to be too hard to understand to some of traders here... (seleme and nemo to name a few)

If you are trading bitcoins, one good approach is that you normally have 100% BTC (from your invested fiat) and if something happens like big up or down then you should have a clear plan what to do, short-term future becomes a lot more easy to predict when these major spikes appear first.

Forget about how much USD you have short-term, focus only to get more BTC, because longest trend is UP UP UP.

I have noticed that my biggest loses (BTC) come when I'm holding USD and waiting too long. Don't wait that the price falls.

Make a plan and stick to it when something happens.

This will get you with more fiat and more btc.

Lol, what do you think I am doing my trading for but to get more BTC.

I will never get more BTC just looking it going up, up and up.

I'm very fine with having bad trades, if I only would have good ones I'd be filthy rich now.

And millionth time, I don't care about holding bitcoin all the time, unlike permabulls who care only about usd dollar worth of their bitcoins and who bought at single numbers or so and now talking bullshit about holding to me who bought my first coins in March or to those who bought at 1k, I care about rising quantity of Bitcoins I hold. That's why I trade and that's what I managed to do trading.

Bad trade here and there is acceptable and perfectly normal.

The only thing I have to force myself to avoid is to trade as less btc vs usd as possible. I'm not good in that and I usually make bad decisions in that pair as I'm extremely small fish in that pair and got run over too easily.

I am not suggesting that you hold forever.

But what do you suggesting then?

I went short when it looked like drop is imminent, I usually play on safe and take moderate profits so I needed 10$ drop or so more, to put my trailing stop orders and finish that trade with profit even if it would reverse. It didn't happen, I went to bed, it rose contrary to all indicators and went away from me so I took a lost. Shit happens

I don't regret my trade at all, the only thing I partially regret is that I used leveraged shorting, that made my loss bigger. But it made my profit yesterday bigger too, bit smaller than loss but that's life

There are moments in market when big up/down move happens, then it becomes easier to predict what happens next, this is the short window when it might be good to buy few dollars and then sell them to get more coins. Concentrate on this window. I mean rebounds. If you are holding USD just in case, you're probably losing a lot in a long run. Its always risky to go to sleep with USD. And despite you'll be using a very short windows, you still have to set strict stop-losses and always follow them.

[Vycid]

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

I am certain that a man of your means has better things to do with his time than generate Excel trends through historical data and pretend it reveals secrets about the future.

[rpietila]

you still have to set strict stop-losses and always follow them.

Are you willing to quantify this stop-loss approach, so that I could run a few simulations?

Eg. "always sell when price dips 10% from the ATH", "Buy back at ATH"

[maz]

Even as a short-term bear I could see last night coming a mile away. It's a basic rule that the price crashes when everyones going to the moon, so with bitfinex totally shorted out last night and everyone expecting the drop, what was there left to do but buy back in when it didn't drop, now we're back up at the high 900's when we were almost finding a stable platform at high 800's low 900's. This bull/bear yoyo'ing could go on for weeks now because there wont be another rally for a while most likely.

I'd give it a day or two... THIS IS SPART... errr.. I mean Bitcoin.

I honestly can't see it Macsga, I mean the kind of mentality we have just now is like 'well we're up at ~900 now, so we may as well just rally up to 2k! lets go!', but in fact the rally which brought us to ~1240 and thus ~900 was several months of built up pressure and many positive factors including China, regardless of whether China was exploiting the ability to make quick bux through arbitrage or criminals were using it for laundering or just people in China getting on board. I think we have squeezed all of the juice out of this current 'bitcoin bull period' and to take it to the next level will require a slow period of a month or two to let the pressure build up again before the next explosion.

Hey, I remember this argument... at $600 after the first correction.

We have no idea how much "pressure" is left.

At $600 the 'trends' were still peaking (as much as I hate to depend on trends), the media was still pumping the bitcoin propaganda and people's interests were being piqued.

Now the trends are down, the media has been saturated (something thats hard for bitcoiners to accept, what people actually would just ignore our bitcoin arcitles???) and we are yesterday's news.

As far as not knowing how much 'pressure' is left. It's pretty obvious, we've been flapping off this ~1k resistance like a wet fish for for a while now, the only pressure that's left is in bull's heads.

[EuroTrash]

I think we are losing steam again. Not that anyone here follows TA but now I see the triangle that Le Happy Merchant spotted.

[rpietila]

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

I am certain that a man of your means has better things to do with his time than generate Excel trends through historical data and pretend it reveals secrets about the future.

Especially as I reveal a secret to you: just yesterday I hired an excel-wiz to crunch the numbers, and he can even post the charts here! The ominous lack of visualization is just my inability to transmit the graphics

[macsga]

The significance of all this is that if we trade in a range for a few weeks it is megabullish. And right now it looks like we are going to (at worst) trade at a high range 850-1050 than a lower range 650-850.

Simply amazing. I expected more out of the bears honestly.

The bears are the ones who sold their coins and are waiting for it to go down.

The bulls are ones who have the coins and are hoping it to go up.

The funny thing is that neither bulls nor bears are in the position to influence the market to their desired direction (because they already made their own move). The success of either is dependent on how to make the other one fold. The forum (incorrectly) constantly talks about bulls buying and bears selling, which is not the case. An upward action is bear running to cover (unless it's virgin buying) and downward action is bulls panicking.

It is generally better to be bull, because the new money raises price on average 24% per month, which is really a lot.

When price has risen to much higher than the trend, however, it may be advantageous to be a bear. From now I will have 3 months to buy back at trendline at a wash, or up to 100% gain. Any number of negative things can happen meanwhile, short-term reducing the price, and my buyback method catches flashcrashes also.

The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore. If I am right, everyone who lost their shirt is bitter at me (I am very good in explaining how right I was ). If I am wrong, people whose general trackrecord is much weaker, are laughing at me. I have not made my 51% APR by listening to other people of course, but I also don't want to argue with them.

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

This could be proved wrong for the community sort and longterm. I love to tease you sometimes, but I think you're a quite valuable asset here. Also keep in mind not everybody is happy when losing money over trading. Please BEAR with them and don't get personal.

Just my 0.000002BTC

[Vycid]

you still have to set strict stop-losses and always follow them.

Are you willing to quantify this stop-loss approach, so that I could run a few simulations?

Eg. "always sell when price dips 10% from the ATH", "Buy back at ATH"

I'd be curious to see how that backtests, actually. I believe Quantopian has integrated some Bitcoin data.

Still, Bitcoin has only been at the ATH for a few brief periods in its history, so I don't know if the data set is large enough to establish anything with any certainty.

[Nemo1024]

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

Please, don't. You have a more silent audience as well.

[Vycid]

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

I am certain that a man of your means has better things to do with his time than generate Excel trends through historical data and pretend it reveals secrets about the future.

Especially as I reveal a secret to you: just yesterday I hired an excel-wiz to crunch the numbers, and he can even post the charts here! The ominous lack of visualization is just my inability to transmit the graphics

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know how to do system dynamics modeling, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

[macsga]

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.

[Vycid]

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.

This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here.

I should clarify: a system dynamics model won't help you with your daytrading, but it WILL provide the sort of signals rpietila is seeking about bitcoins being overbought/oversold.

[maz]

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

As a businessman who's priority is to make money money then the thoughts of some strangers on a forum should be irrelevant. If I were one of your client's I wouldn't be happy that you were neglecting your 'other projects' to engage with trolls on a forum