Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

I’m in it for the tech any way.

well, i am still in it because of the tech.

ngl though the early retirement, security and toys it gave me were pretty dope

somehow, my feeling is that recently retired would soon unretire, but it is just a feeling.
being retired in this s-t to me makes it not worth it (to be retired), but on that the opinions may differ.

Those who retired because of their BTC holdings, that are now considering "unretiring" because of the current dip are not doing it right. The way I see it, you don't quit your job and retire, until BTC price reaches 5x to 10x your retirement price point. For example, if my stash is such that $50k/BTC is enough for retirement, I would not do it before price reaches at least $250k-$500k/BTC. Call me conservative, but that's what I'd do.

new from M. Saylor:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx8goIcXa2Y

Nice interview. It's always entertaining to watch Saylor explaining his position. He gets it.

[1715511969]

1715511969

[1715511969]

1715511969

[1715511969]

1715511969

[LoyceV]

(source)

[JimboToronto]

“I only eat ramen noodles”

I always eat meat..... and vegetables, etc.

I don't eat ramen noodles though. Pound for pound they're too expensive. I break linguine into short pieces to add to my homemade soup. Cheaper and more protein.

I also don't use Vegeta. I prefer Bovril.

 

Edit:

No Mcdonalds either. I'll cook my own burgers at home.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aysg76]

CB please help me out so that i can fly my McDonald's cap in the air once again 

[somac.]

I’m in it for the tech any way.

well, i am still in it because of the tech.

ngl though the early retirement, security and toys it gave me were pretty dope

somehow, my feeling is that recently retired would soon unretire, but it is just a feeling.
being retired in this s-t to me makes it not worth it (to be retired), but on that the opinions may differ.

Those who retired because of their BTC holdings, that are now considering "unretiring" because of the current dip are not doing it right. The way I see it, you don't quit your job and retire, until BTC price reaches 5x to 10x your retirement price point. For example, if my stash is such that $50k/BTC is enough for retirement, I would not do it before price reaches at least $250k-$500k/BTC. Call me conservative, but that's what I'd do.

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

[El duderino_]

Bottom is in i guess.

Honestly not yet sure if that….. I would hope some orders to get filled ….

Other side and up is good as well, but if down then I prefer it when sleeping, full up my orders and be at the same high or higher as when I went sleeping 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

(source)

November 2021:
"Make passionate love to me baby all day here in paradise!"



January 2022:
"Hand job? Five bucks!"

[dragonvslinux]

High highs and higher lows? 12 months of consolidation at higher levels? Probably nothing... apart from the structure of an uptrend of course. Just saying.



I don't think this price level is the real test, but simply where price is expected to bounce from whether we are to go lower or make new ATH in the long-term.
The real test will be around $50K, whether at the Weekly MAs price continues higher or get's rejected and makes the first macro lower high.

For reference sake, like this in 2018. Even if around 6 months too late, the long-term bearish MA crossover & rejection did eventually confirm the downtrend:



Failing to reach $50K in the mid-term, or failing to reclaim $40K, would be a very bearish sign however. This should go without saying.
Ie the longer price spends at support levels, and the more re-tests that occur, the weaker the support and bulls will become.

Am otherwise seeing some similarities of price strength with 2019, with 3D RSI now oversold similar to the March Covid crash:



Based on the Daily RSI, price can certainly go lower (-20%) now that it's strength as reached a new oversold low. Same with the Weekly RSI that just turned bearish for the first time since March 2020.
While I'm anticipating a bounce from these mid $30K levels (since $46K broke) it will still be way too early to tell if the continuation of the uptrend will be immediate, or further consolidation is needed.
I otherwise consider that while price is in a bullish structure, the long-term uptrend ended after 12 months of consolidation and once $46K broke. Now to see if we can return to an uptrend.

Bottoms up?

Also thinking the shorter-term bear trend is nearing an end, or likely already over, after reaching the average trading price from the past year and accumulation zone at $34K.
Unless investors from the past 12 months are going to start selling at break even, in fear of $20K-$25K, traders are long gone with weak hands already flushed out.

[somac.]

(source)

November 2021:
"Make passionate love to me baby all day here in paradise!"



January 2022:
"Hand job? Five bucks!"

Thank god I already have a wife.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

One other thing I left out of my post, is that when war breaks out in the Ukraine, the stonk market will dip again. The Fed will also use this as an excuse to pause further rate hikes.

Not when but IF. This war rhetoric and rumors are beneficial to both sides whereas real war most probably won't be the case.  

[Paashaas]

The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago, the question is what Russia will do about it as NATO move closer to their borders and continues to provoke?

Poetin wants to restore former glory of the Sovjet Union, the problem is Ukraine and the Baltic states don't want to be part ore annexed by communist cancer anymore so they seek help with the Western allies.

Drums of war increasing everyday, Moscow is continuing to build up its military forces for a possible invasion after negotiations isn't getting anywhere. High stake poker are played, Russia don't want Ukraine to be part of Nato.

U.S and European countries sending military support for Ukraine.

Military equipment deployed in Belarus, Russia's ally. Alexander Lukashenko is another dictator spreading terror among his own citizens. The rest of Eastern Europe hates Russia especially Poland, they will never forget what those communists did during/after WO2.

Sweden getting harassed, Russian submarines in their own territory, drones flying above nuclear plants, airports and even the royal palace in Stockholm. In response Sweden has moved more troops to Gotland island in the Baltic Sea. Majority of the parliament wants a membership of Nato military alliance but is holding back by left social democrats. Sweden has always been a neutral country that's why they are not part of Nato but if Poetin attacks one way ore another they will join.

[serveria.com]

(source)

November 2021:
"Make passionate love to me baby all day here in paradise!"



January 2022:
"Hand job? Five bucks!"

I want back into November 21! Puleeeeeaze...  

[serveria.com]

(source)

November 2021:
"Make passionate love to me baby all day here in paradise!"



January 2022:
"Hand job? Five bucks!"

Thank god I already have a wife.

But you should admit it you'd like to screw the shit out of that hot lady and her juicy round ass...  Haven't seen ur wife though, perhaps she's even hotter...

[dragonvslinux]

BTC traders need to be correct 501 out of 1,000 times.

Unfortunately, this is the common misconception with trading, that you have to be right 51% of the time. Complete nonsense.

I'll try and break this down as simply as possible;

1:1 risk reward, requires being right 51% of the time to be profitable
2:1 risk reward, requires being right 34% of the time..
3:1 risk reward, requires being right 26% of the time..
etc.

It's never about being right half the time, it's exclusively about the risk:reward ratio. Different traders have different success and and different risk rewards ratios.
The most profitable traders are arguably those that are only right 25-30% of the time, because they successfully target high risk reward (4:1 or 5:1).

[somac.]

The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago, the question is what Russia will do about it as NATO move closer to their borders and continues to provoke?

Poetin wants to restore former glory of the Sovjet Union, the problem is Ukraine and the Baltic states don't want to be part ore annexed by communist cancer anymore so they seek help with the Western allies.

Drums of war increasing everyday, Moscow is continuing to build up its military forces for a possible invasion after negotiations isn't getting anywhere. High stake poker are played, Russia don't want Ukraine to be part of Nato.

U.S and European countries sending military support for Ukraine.

Military equipment deployed in Belarus, Russia's ally. Alexander Lukashenko is another dictator spreading terror among his own citizens. The rest of Eastern Europe hates Russia especially Poland, they will never forget what those communists did during/after WO2.

Sweden getting harassed, Russian submarines in their own territory, drones flying above nuclear plants, airports and even the royal palace in Stockholm. In response Sweden has moved more troops to Gotland island in the Baltic Sea. Majority of the parliament wants a membership of Nato military alliance but is holding back by left social democrats. Sweden has always been a neutral country that's why they are not part of Nato but if Poetin attacks one way ore another they will join.

After all these years of securing power, bringing Russia out of its rut from the downfall of the Soviet Union, enriching himself to the level of a king. Why would Putin want to commit suicide by invading Ukraine? Yes he would not be happy about NATO gaining a foothold there, and I'm sure that is what he is trying to prevent, but starting a war would not only ensure that Ukraine becomes part of NATO, but also every other country in Europe, Scandinavia, etc. does as well.

I don't think Putin is that stupid. And Russia's current Military capability is nothing like those of the Soviet Union. And the Soviet Unions Military might was grossly overstated as well.

[somac.]

(source)

November 2021:
"Make passionate love to me baby all day here in paradise!"



January 2022:
"Hand job? Five bucks!"

Thank god I already have a wife.

But you should admit it you'd like to screw the shit out of that hot lady and her juicy round ass...  Haven't seen ur wife though, perhaps she's even hotter...

I absolutely would, and I'm even lucky enough to have a wife that would let me too. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation