Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[Richy_T]

Dave from eevblog just revealed that when you get a youtube silver plaque, you get to enter whatever name you like to be engraved on it. I'm sure Craig Wright will get right on that.

[OutOfMemory]

That CME Bitcoin January Futures contracts got closed today, right?
Wouldn't be too surprised if BTC volume will magically grow by about the amount that was needed to keep the price lower in the last two days via selling.
I'm tempted to start trading every end-of-futures-contract, which should be one of the most successful ways to end this obvious shitfuckery  

With such playing around, you might end up ending ur lil selfie first.

Seems better to just have a system.. and yeah..  if you want to attempt to counter-balance some seeming patterns that you see, you might be successful - until you are not, so hopefully you would not be playing with too much value in such gambling endeavors.
 

Of course no high values, a third of the "play money" at best. I could set up some limits, like only proceeding until i lost a certain part of the satoshi i have gained using that system.

... is it just a coincidence the late October '21 arrival of bitcoin futures ETF coincided with most recent ATH??

.... same thing happened in dec 2017 when first btc futures contract opened on CME, although admittedly btc was dramatically overbought at the time

Yes, these coincidences have also caught my attention.

[cAPSLOCK]

A while back I did a comparison review of various lightning wallets.  I did not rate Bluewallet very highly as at the time their software was clunky, primarily custodial, and hardest to move coins around with.  They have come a LONG LONG way since then adding several features that are unique.  For example you can even add LND (and CL I think) based seed words and produce the onchain wallet associated with that LND node.  I don't think any other wallet does this.  Anyway... their software has found a place on my phone for some basic lightning uses... and I have come up in my appreciation of what they build.  I was dismayed that they were opne of the projects that planned to implement the spy features... and I expressed concern.  As it turns out my understanding is they are reversing course.

This has been an extremely interesting little event in the Bitcoin world, and encouraging to see.  I also did not want to have to do a holy journey to El Salvador to ceremonially throw my Trezor into a volcano...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

arizona is the next el salvador

While on the "dark side"...
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/01/24/bank-of-america-says-us-cbdc-would-preserve-dollars-status-as-worlds-reserve-currency/

[BlackHatCoiner]

Speaking of Lightning, when will it get mainstream? I mean, yesterday I wanted to pay for a Discord nitro which costed $4 and the guy didn't even know what Lightning is. 

Yes. I paid on-chain...

[AverageGlabella]

Source : https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1483046971912957952
It is evident today governments have pushed the idea that Bitcoin is obviously awful for the climate when normal mining leaves scars on the earths surface and requires enormous drills. Are they telling us that Bitcoin miners when contrasted with BIG bores that require fuel and produce more heat then Bitcoin diggers are better for the climate?

utilize reusable energy since it produces more benefit for them in view of power expenses it is practicable to do but the gold and iron miners are not offered an incentive for reusable energy so it will never improve. The drills have huge fuel consumption which you could not replace with batteries. Then think about the spoil which they dump which is cross contamination to the earth. I hate to see btc being known for something it is not and that affects price.

Let this be a lesson that governments and companies do not care about the environment they want to look good and put restrictions on things only when it benefits them.

Dammit just noticed .... Running behind the merit count with fillippone...

damn what am I gonna do? Pee, Food?, Eeeeuhm ...

Naaaah GG @fillippone.

All will be forgiven if Bitcoin hits a new ATH again this year

[philipma1957]

Source : https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1483046971912957952
It is evident today governments have pushed the idea that Bitcoin is obviously awful for the climate when normal mining leaves scars on the earths surface and requires enormous drills. Are they telling us that Bitcoin miners when contrasted with BIG bores that require fuel and produce more heat then Bitcoin diggers are better for the climate?

utilize reusable energy since it produces more benefit for them in view of power expenses it is practicable to do but the gold and iron miners are not offered an incentive for reusable energy so it will never improve. The drills have huge fuel consumption which you could not replace with batteries. Then think about the spoil which they dump which is cross contamination to the earth. I hate to see btc being known for something it is not and that affects price.

Let this be a lesson that governments and companies do not care about the environment they want to look good and put restrictions on things only when it benefits them.

Dammit just noticed .... Running behind the merit count with fillippone...

damn what am I gonna do? Pee, Food?, Eeeeuhm ...

Naaaah GG @fillippone.

All will be forgiven if Bitcoin hits a new ATH again this year

THE SOLAR is what my partners and I do.

Anyone that understands what you are showing knows that all anti BTC info in terms of power wasted is a lie.

Leaved un repaired holes in the ground for more than a century was a huge incentive for coal mining.

instead of that build solar fields with proper incentives if they mine 50% and sell power to the grid 50%

problems solved.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

* BobLawblaw stares at cAPSLOCK, does secret Twitter nod and handshake, and proceeds with his day

EDIT: Anyone hear from Elwar? Noticed his LND channel with me has been down for some time now.

[savetherainforest]

Dammit just noticed .... Running behind the merit count with fillippone...

damn what am I gonna do? Pee, Food?, Eeeeuhm ...

Naaaah GG @fillippone.

U just wait for the flippening... of fillippone and you will see the true nature of reality!!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

https://twitter.com/Dennis_Porter_/status/1487500861488054273

[El duderino_]

Some peoples situation

[ImThour]

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1487509038665502720
Thank god it didn't said above $100k because that's just like me predicting it to go $19000. 

[AlcoHoDL]

Some peoples situation

It's always been like this. Throughout history. Wealth always flows from the weak/dumb to the strong/smart. And it's OK. As Saylor puts it, "I just pity them." The only bad thing is the bear posting part...  

[JayJuanGee]

@jjg: "In 4 years, around 3BTC will be 1/3 of fuck you status.  In 8 years, less than 1 BTC will be fuck you status.. "

maybe too ambitious, especially the first number (assuming it refers to fu status of $3 mil).
the last cycle (counting from the top to a potential top) of 2017-2021 was a lot of volatility, not much gains (from top to top).
I found that you already assigned 45% to that it was, indeed, the top at 69K with more than 50% chance if we don't top out in Q1 (which look to be not happening, realistically).
I agree, but to assign a more bullish pattern to the next cycle (top to top:2021-2025) is, perhaps, premature, although it is very possible.
We would have to go 4.82X (from top to top) vs this cycle 3.48X. same ballpark, but would not fit the diminishing return pattern (if there is such a pattern).

Well, I have been using $2 million as tentative entry level fuck you status for a bit more than a year now, and I am also using the 208-week moving average to now assert that entry level fuck you status is just over 100 BTC... (you can see that here) and for sure, my projection out of the 208-week moving average might be a bit too ambitious including that it has gone up about 75% per year on average for the past 8 years, but it may well be better to taper that 75% per year down.. .. just to error a bit more on the conservative side.

I don't consider it very helpful to be measuring from top to top, even though greater exponential runs do cause the 208-week moving average to move up at a greater pace.. and for sure the opposite is true, especially if the BTC price starts to get close to the 208-week moving average, then it is NOT going to be moving up as much per year.  I would not expect anyone to project out and to get caught up on their numbers without attempting to monitor on a regular basis and also acknowledging that there might be some "in the best case scenarios going on."

Regarding a discussion about whether the top is in at $69k, you are correct that on December 16, I had projected that to be 45% odds of that having had already happened in 2021..  (you can see that here).. but even if we lock me into saying that I said that there were 55% odds that the top would be higher than $69k, on December 16, I was also saying that there were around 24% odds that the peak would be in the 1st quarter of 2022.   It is quite likely that i need to change those numbers since we are almost half way through the 1st quarter of 2022.. and you are right that it would be quite a weird scenario if we were to get supra $69k and also a top in the 1st quarter of this year... so some of those kinds of scenarios are appearing more implausible with the passage of time.. especially 1st quarter ATH and finish of the cycle scenarios. 

Although the rebel in me likes the idea of "fuck you status" it still has the intrinsic problem of being related to "money" in this context, to me status comes from who you are based on your actions, backing your claims, admitting mistakes, where the value is measured in truth and integrity.

I understand that in this thread, we frequently end up deviating beyond bitcoin and into financial, psychological and other kinds of motivations that guys might have in "getting their shit together" or otherwise considering ways to become better versions of themselves within starting places that they might have.

I am not even going to assert that those various other considerations (that you pointed out) should not be valid, but even you are going to have to admit that if we go down those kinds of paths, we are going to likely end up all over the place.. and for sure, even with more limited attempts at attempting to define and discuss something like fuck you status, we can get into a lot of tangents if we do not at least attempt to define it more narrowly and perhaps even within somewhat more broadly shared parameters.

Even before anyone here would really be able to define his/her own fuck you status, s/he has to engage in quite a few attempts to know himself/herself in terms of current financial situation and current psychology - and for sure, even considering something like Maslow's hierarchy of needs, some guys/gals might not even be ready to contemplate some of the self-actualization type ideas that you outline until they build some of their own foundational levels (and you don't even need to be poverty-stricken person to end up having to address some of the more basic needs.. and maybe even from time to time reverting back into having to consider some of those more basic needs when either macro-circumstances end up affecting you in ways that you had not expected and/or sometimes even failure to adequately and reasonably foresee and prepare might end up putting some guys/gals back into more basic struggles at a later time in life).

[ImThour]

Well, I have been using $2 million as tentative entry level fuck you status for a bit more than a year now, and I am also using the 208-week moving average to now assert that entry level fuck you status is just over 100 BTC... (you can see that here) and for sure, my projection out of the 208-week moving average might be a bit too ambitious including that it has gone up about 75% per year on average for the past 8 years, but it may well be better to taper that 75% per year down.. .. just to error a bit more on the conservative side.

Are those your actual DCA Buyings or some sort of analysis like If we would have bought at 208 week MA?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation