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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (1%)
7/28 - 11 (10.6%)
8/4 - 16 (15.4%)
8/11 - 7 (6.7%)
8/18 - 6 (5.8%)
8/25 - 7 (6.7%)
After August - 56 (53.8%)
Total Voters: 104

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26461206 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
machasm
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January 26, 2022, 08:17:37 PM
Merited by AverageGlabella (1)

Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy  Shocked

EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?

Grow some balls! Going down after so many bullish news? We're going nowhere but up!  Cool

Honestly, it seems that price is just waiting for any excuse to act irrationally.
I haven’t sold a Satoshi during this whole downtrend.
Bought a couple of dips and just waiting it out.
I’ve got time and FIAT isn’t getting any better.
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January 26, 2022, 08:32:59 PM

Very rarely have I ever heard so many words used to say nothing at all.
TL;DR
We're doing nothing today but might do something soon.

Side Note:
In light of so many words used in saying nothing...
OpSec - I noticed J1G has been completely absent through this press conference and it's run-up.
Should we start using the abbr. J1P???
Just asking...
OutOfMemory
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January 26, 2022, 08:41:32 PM

Very rarely have I ever heard so many words used to say nothing at all.
TL;DR
We're doing nothing today but might do something soon.

Side Note:
In light of so many words used in saying nothing...
OpSec - I noticed J1G has been completely absent through this press conference and it's run-up.
Should we start using the abbr. J1P???
Just asking...

Dude, bots may have a real life too!  Cheesy
Change my mind  Cool
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January 26, 2022, 09:01:36 PM


Explanation
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January 26, 2022, 09:25:26 PM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 05:36:43 PM by fillippone
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3), bitmover (2), jojo69 (1), AverageGlabella (1)

The news we were rooting for:



Showing a giant middle finger to IMF’s crooks.
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January 26, 2022, 10:01:25 PM


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January 26, 2022, 11:01:24 PM


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January 26, 2022, 11:17:19 PM

For some reason I have started arguing with Kurt Wuckert.  It's amazingly circular and pointless.  I wonder how much that guy gets paid...  man,  And I just rep the truth  for free! Wink
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January 26, 2022, 11:40:51 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Found something really interesting. Everytime BTC goes below 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA.
Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.  Wink


I can not say whether you are right in what you are talking about but I will accept it in any case since it fits with my narrative.

Your way of discussing several of the matters and your trade offs does cause me a decent amount of concern - especially in terms of your ability to HODL through potential tough times.

For sure, there is a lot of empirical evidence to show that lump sum investing has tended to pay off even better than DCA - especially when the buying was upon dips.. but we can never really know the extent to which a dip is over.. so there tends to be some value in having some strategies besides lump sum, such as an ability to continue to buy on further dips... otherwise you just have to HODL  through the whole dip period, if it ends up coming and taking a long time to resolve...and hopefully you would not end up panicing in the meantime.

Personally, since you did a pretty decent lump sum investment, maybe you should plan to carry out a DCA plan at any time that the BTC price get's close to your buy-in price.. even if your DCA amount is ONLY $10 per week (maybe $100 per week would be better?).. it might give you some peace of mind if we ever go below your average buy price.

Usually the plan for having at least a 4-year plan would be that if you bought at the top of the cycle then you would still have pretty decent chances of at least being profitable after 4 years.. maybe not extremely profitable, but at least not in the red.. and there are no guarantees of that, either, even though BTC's investment thesis does seem to be quite a bit stronger now than it was 7-8 years ago.

Regarding cashing out, sure of course you might want to attempt to time tops somewhat, but you still gotta be careful about cashing out too much because where you going to put it that is better than BTC?  You could consider cashing out more incrementally such as quarterly, yearly or some timeline variation that is comfortable, but you might need to be careful that you might end up taking out at the wrong times.. but sure if you cash out a quarter or a years worth of expected expenses, then that would likely be reasonable.

You know about the 4% per year theory regarding cashing out too, right?  That has traditionally been the guidance for traditional investments, even though I do believe with BTC you could get away with larger percentages depending on how you value your holdings.  Also, if you are planning not to cash out any BTC for 5 years, you do have 5 years to figure out those kinds of matters, but you could attempt to project out values and cash out plans in terms of best case scenarios, worse case scenarios and even medium case scenarios.. and for sure there is value to give some serious considerations to the worse case scenarios, even though if they are not really very likely it is better to have a way of keeping in mind a range of scenarios while focusing more of your attention on more likely scenarios and perhaps revisiting the projections from time to time to see if you might need to tweak them.

Regarding your cold storage, you should check them a few times a year to make sure that you understand your access and your recovery and if you might have back up ways to recover.. and once you go through the process a few times, you might be able to just do it once a year.. depending on how complicated that you have made it for yourself.. ..but for sure both complication and too much simplicity could be enemies.. so some kind of balance is going to be preferred.
thanks to you for being concerned enough with regards to me to offer this extraordinary guidance. I figure I will take your recommendation and do a DCA plan as you say. I think taking out $100 consistently that the value stays a little % underneath my target is smart to prevent me from getting hurt assuming it never arrives at the target I am focusing on.

I am going to try to avoid accessing my cold storage and I will only be checking that the recovery paper I have is in good condition and has not deteriorated. My process was the normal process and should not be hard to check 1 a year.
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January 27, 2022, 12:01:33 AM


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January 27, 2022, 12:17:39 AM
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Makes me feel good about my decisions
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January 27, 2022, 01:01:24 AM


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January 27, 2022, 01:15:17 AM



By the way, I sent the above image to someone via text in real life, and at the time of sending the pic, I pretty much said:  "You need to be more like me," and the person told me that I needed to explain the picture MOAR better because the picture does not make sense, and I refused to explain the picture.  I said that the picture is self-explanatory.. and should be studied more closely in order to understand it.  

One of the problems of peeps in real life.. sometimes, and in that regard, I guess I am a meanie in real life, too.. because I refuse to explain more than what is already shown in the picture.


Down here, be like me
Dip like piña colada
Badass JJG



#haiku
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January 27, 2022, 01:15:53 AM
Merited by fillippone (3)

For some reason I have started arguing with Kurt Wuckert.

 I just ended up blocking him. His "I'm rich with a loving family and friends" bullshit was the weakest of sauce when really getting savage with him.

 The guy probably cries himself to sleep every night.
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January 27, 2022, 02:01:25 AM


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January 27, 2022, 02:08:24 AM

For some reason I have started arguing with Kurt Wuckert.

 I just ended up blocking him. His "I'm rich with a loving family and friends" bullshit was the weakest of sauce when really getting savage with him.

 The guy probably cries himself to sleep every night.

What the hell is wrong with him?  I wonder if he kept all the payments made to him as BSV?  I do feel like he is losing his mojo a little...
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January 27, 2022, 03:01:32 AM


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January 27, 2022, 04:01:25 AM


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January 27, 2022, 04:15:18 AM



By the way, I sent the above image to someone via text in real life, and at the time of sending the pic, I pretty much said:  "You need to be more like me," and the person told me that I needed to explain the picture MOAR better because the picture does not make sense, and I refused to explain the picture.  I said that the picture is self-explanatory.. and should be studied more closely in order to understand it.  

One of the problems of peeps in real life.. sometimes, and in that regard, I guess I am a meanie in real life, too.. because I refuse to explain more than what is already shown in the picture.

 That is kinda mean Mr. JJG.  You've gotten your friends, acquaintances and enemies alike used to a certain standard of communication and then you pull the rug out from under them with a simple picture? 

I can see what you are saying. It was venturing on the more shocking way of communicating for someone who seems to be failing/refusing to appreciate certain kinds of creative ways that I attempt to communicate about attempting to see the bright side of a seemingly negative situation...

I will clarify, however, I did not share such picture with one of my family members in which I attempt to maintain more formal communications.. it was someone with whom I thought that various kinds of informalities would be acceptable.  The reaction caused me to conclude that I might have to be a bit more sparing and less daring with those ways of communicating with that person... Really?  "I don't get it." "I don't get it." is just telling me that such person does not want to "get it."

A picture may paint a thousand words but it can't hold a candle to you, sir. 

Well?  You may have a point.  Such person had recently been telling me that there would be a preference that I communicate with more pictures, memes and graphs... yet I have not yet been successful.. and so I am thinking that I should just be sticking to my core competencies, even if such person does not seem to understand such core competencies.


I suggest you apologize to that "someone" and strive to maintain excellence in all further communications.  Pfft... a picture.  Roll Eyes

I cannot recall whether I have ever apologized in my whole life, except when my teachers in grade school would force such words to come out of my mouth.  For sure, there are firsts for everything.. I may have to consider the context of the matter, and perhaps for a moment, put myself in my second-grader shoes.. if that might seem the best path forward, given the level of mess that I have so far created for my lil selfie.

 And I am also going to sell my house for the dip.

Don't do it.

All we need is another homeless WO participant.. bad enough that so many in these here parts have been considering that they are being creative merely by adding chicken bones to their ramen.

The scary bit is we seem to be experiencing a good deal of catastrophe... ;/ 

Speak for yourself.  I would not call bouncing between $32k and $69k in the past 3 months as being really that bad of a thing, and even if you extrapolate for the whole of the last 12 months from the end of January to the end of January, we are not really that bad even for the whole year.. The 52-week moving average shows the average price for the past year, and even though somewhat flat is still at about $48k.

If you consider that we spent most of 2018, 2019, and 2020 below $10k.. If you look at that 52-week moving average during that time, it had gotten up to nearly $9k by the end of 2018, but then took another 2 years to get up to $9k..

You can see it in this chart (but the certificate for the website is not renewed so maybe you don't want to look)... https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#igWeeklyzczsg2018-02-01zeg2020-10-06ztgMza1gSMAzm1g52za2gSMAzm2g208zv

Anyhow, the 52-week moving average has been going up ever since about mid-2019 when it got down to about the $5,500 territory... even though 52-week moving average seems to currently be flattening out in the upper $40ks..  . but still does not seem to be a bad thing....and I suppose the near term BTC price is going to tell us if that 52-week moving average is going to continue to go up, go sideways or go down.. and surely I am thinking that it still has good chances to go up.. even though for sure, I like to simultaneously maintain the "you never know" perspective.
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January 27, 2022, 04:44:50 AM
Merited by NeuroticFish (3), fillippone (3)

The news we were rooting for:



Showing a giant middle finger to IMF’s crooks.

Game over IMF!

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