ChartBuddy
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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January 26, 2022, 06:01:34 PM |
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cAPSLOCK
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Activity: 3752
Merit: 5142
Whimsical Pants
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January 26, 2022, 06:07:52 PM Merited by JayJuanGee (1) |
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Halving 1: 8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days 80% Down in 426 days
Halving 2: 2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days 75% Down in 396 days
Halving 3: 570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days
Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run? There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis. So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet. Framing the top for this cycle as a certainty is likely to lead to problematic conclusions.... especially when at best maybe you could argue greater than 50% odds that the top is in, and I personally do not believe that it is greater than 50% odds that the top is in, even though I do understand that others could come to such a conclusion.. and perhaps even somewhat reasonable persons... hahahahahaha On about December 16, the last time that I really went through an attempt at measuring whether the top was in, I got around 45% odds (and sure there is a bit of SOMA in that), and maybe I would be willing to tweak my numbers a wee bit since then.. but from my ongoing attempt to understand what is going on, there does not seem to be enough information to tip us over a 50% reading that the top is in... ..and maybe the most persuasive part would be that we are spending so much time in a kind of 45%-50% correction zone.. which causes it to become harder to believe that BTC prices are going to just double to get us back to our November 9 ATH.. It just feels like fantasy thinking, even though many of us know that BTC is quite capable of such - especially once the UPpity momentum gets going, it becomes harder to keep honey badger down in those kinds of circumstances of previous seemingly outrageous suppression.... So, yeah, maybe at best a reasonable person might come up with reasons to assign slightly higher than 50% odds to the top already being in.. but nothing close to treating it as a certainty seems reasonable.. at least not based on current data and logic in front of those of us who can see it. I think the first simple indicator we need to see to determine a top is in is a simple lower low. Which depending on your interpretation would be somewhere between 29313 and 30k. I think, unfortunately this is DEFINITELY a non-zero chance scenario. :/ In fact... if we do not see a turnaround from where we are it's a fair certainty. I feel like this is the type of thing John Madden (RIP) would say. "For this team to win they are going to need to get the ball down the field, and score!". Well in this case, for Bitcoin not to go further down, it needs to start going up! Seems to me there are fundamentals that support the go-up scenario... and there are certain events, and some technical reasons we should be prepared for downity as you like to put it. Either way I will be fine, though I admit, a third push to a new ATH would be a nifty new thing to happen "this cycle".
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LoyceV
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Activity: 3360
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Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
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January 26, 2022, 06:08:22 PM Merited by JayJuanGee (1) |
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NYDIG looks like the typical ICO website, that's not very encouraging. I guess they don't mean the bank allows you to buy Bitcoin and send it to your own address, right? In that case, they're teaching their customers the wrong thing. Paypal did that already.
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El duderino_
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Activity: 2562
Merit: 12414
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
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Torque
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Activity: 3598
Merit: 5079
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ImThour
Copper Member
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Activity: 1442
Merit: 1522
Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k
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January 26, 2022, 06:44:34 PM |
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Good observation there... But have you also noticed that it tested the 200WMA in the past only when it crossed the 50WMA before it was peaking? This is not the case with the last dip, but the mid-2021 dip almost was such a breach. We'll sure find out. EDIT: Waiting for that Fed statement, thought it was announced to happen yesterday. EDIT2: One and a half hour to go... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90AwHT7h1SoThanks Mate! Also, thanks for the link lmao.. was looking for this. Let's see how it goes.
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cygan
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Activity: 3206
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Crypto Swap Exchange
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January 26, 2022, 06:48:57 PM |
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cAPSLOCK
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Activity: 3752
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Whimsical Pants
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Y'all ready for this??? It's gonna get crazy... FAST... in my humble opinion. I bet the IMF is PISSED. Because they know what's coming. The game theory part of the whole thing is about to kick in to the EXTREME.
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2226
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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January 26, 2022, 07:01:24 PM |
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ImThour
Copper Member
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Activity: 1442
Merit: 1522
Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k
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January 26, 2022, 07:10:13 PM |
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What caused this? I thought it was still some time left for the Fed meeting Edit: Welp, that felt like a shitcoin going 100% down in minutes lmao.
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cAPSLOCK
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Whimsical Pants
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January 26, 2022, 07:33:20 PM |
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BREAKING: The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged for now.
Rumor: 25 basis points each of the next two dates starting March.
So do we buy the rumor or sell the news? Oh yeah. I don't do either of those... I hold the waves.
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OutOfMemory
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Activity: 1596
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Man who stares at charts
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January 26, 2022, 07:34:16 PM Last edit: January 26, 2022, 07:52:11 PM by OutOfMemory |
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Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2226
Merit: 1779
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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January 26, 2022, 08:01:25 PM |
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serveria.com
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Privacy Servers. Since 2009.
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Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead? Grow some balls! Going down after so many bullish news? We're going nowhere but up!
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OutOfMemory
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Activity: 1596
Merit: 3156
Man who stares at charts
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January 26, 2022, 08:11:59 PM |
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Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead? Grow some balls! Going down after so many bullish news? We're going nowhere but up! I am quite risk averse. That's why i almost only hodl. Also, this is the shortest answer to JJG's question about why i am mostly trading small ranges with my micro "play money" stash, he asked about one to two weeks ago. Good that i can put a checkmark to that on my todo list as well. I'm generally bullish, in case you didn't notice
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machasm
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Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead? Grow some balls! Going down after so many bullish news? We're going nowhere but up! Honestly, it seems that price is just waiting for any excuse to act irrationally. I haven’t sold a Satoshi during this whole downtrend. Bought a couple of dips and just waiting it out. I’ve got time and FIAT isn’t getting any better.
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Copetech
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January 26, 2022, 08:32:59 PM |
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Very rarely have I ever heard so many words used to say nothing at all. TL;DR We're doing nothing today but might do something soon.
Side Note: In light of so many words used in saying nothing... OpSec - I noticed J1G has been completely absent through this press conference and it's run-up. Should we start using the abbr. J1P??? Just asking...
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OutOfMemory
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Man who stares at charts
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January 26, 2022, 08:41:32 PM |
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Very rarely have I ever heard so many words used to say nothing at all. TL;DR We're doing nothing today but might do something soon.
Side Note: In light of so many words used in saying nothing... OpSec - I noticed J1G has been completely absent through this press conference and it's run-up. Should we start using the abbr. J1P??? Just asking...
Dude, bots may have a real life too! Change my mind
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2226
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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January 26, 2022, 09:01:36 PM |
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fillippone
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Activity: 2212
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Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
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January 26, 2022, 09:25:26 PM Last edit: May 15, 2023, 05:36:43 PM by fillippone |
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The news we were rooting for: Showing a giant middle finger to IMF’s crooks.
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