Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gallianooo]

Lot of WO members still surprised it was finally not « the last time we saw this BTC price » or not the « last bargain ».

I am still confident since I am heavily invested in BTC from early 2015 for LONG term (more longer than another cycle).

However, how ‘early’ BTC investors can be still surprised or naive after all the fact we have since the 2021 ATH cycle ?

- Weak ATH double top
- ‘Only’ x3.5 since 2017 ATH (20->69K).
- NO real rebound / signifiant bear market really on all the down 69->15.5K. Means : down almost 78% from the ATH with a shy x3.5 ATH.
- Went for the first time below the previous ATH (and more than 20% below).
- Staying below for months and below the 200 EMA.
- Some members compare with 2019, but in 2019 we had a real bear market rally till almost 14K (20K->3K->14K). Only thing we did till now it’s ‘only’ x2 from 15.5 to 31K after this straight down 69->15.5K without any substantial reaction. WEAK.

Current facts are BTC had a « weak » bullrun in 2021 (compare to previous ones), but  still kept a strong bear market without any ‘impressive’ bear market rally since almost 2 years.

AND we are still +/- 8months away from the halving. And most probably no spot ETF validation before Q1 2024 (if accepted).

And, without enter in the detail,  traditional markets, especially NASDAQ100 not smelling good for the next weeks/months.

So from a ‘bearish’ side we still have place and time to get  ‘new BTC bargain’ before the end of this year / early 2024.

DCA from now till end the year / halving time should probably be a good risk/reward.

[Woodie]

One last time, for the slow learners in the back....

The part about trading that everyone hates when open trades go back where all the action started to mitigate the order block aka close the open trades ...these markets are so damn highly manipulated

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

**note:  I will apologize to fillippone in advance for the format of these charts, because I could not get his google spreadsheet conversion tool to work for me

Here JJG: I updated the sheet with a second template. you can open it and find your table with the customisable Rake %age

# BTC	Fiat Rate	Total Value	Rake BTC	Rake USD	Rake_Running_USD_ TOTAL
10.00000	$40,000	$400,000.00	0.50000	$20,000.00	$20,000.00
9.50000	$80,000	$760,000.00	0.47500	$38,000.00	$58,000.00
9.02500	$160,000	$1,444,000.00	0.45125	$72,200.00	$130,200.00
8.57375	$320,000	$2,743,600.00	0.42869	$137,180.00	$267,380.00
8.14506	$640,000	$5,212,840.00	0.40725	$260,642.00	$528,022.00
7.73781	$1,280,000	$9,904,396.00	0.38689	$495,219.80	$1,023,241.80

Warning. I used my formulas. Maybe I celebrated a little bit too much this evening, but why 5% of 400K is not 20K?

Wow.  That's nice.

In regards to your question why 5% of $400k (10 BTC) is not $20k and 0.5 BTC respectively, the short answer is that you were right.

The medium answer was that there was an additional 0.998 multiplied within the formula for the sell, and there were some other buy back assumptions contained within the whole formula to cause the amount sold overall to have had been less with the passage of time.  So, I see that the formulas that I used were not just making a point about ONLY selling, but instead had some other things going on in there. So your revision of the formula seems to ONLY contain the selling assumption of 5% without any further underlying formulas to reduce the amount.

And the even longer answer, just for context was that when I made the post earlier today, I was scrambling to try to find my earlier work on such topic of raking and/or selling on the way up, and those ideas of mine largely came out of  from some of my active participation in Rpietila's (Risto) (RIP) 2013 Thread entitled:  (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan .... which I had thereby created several customized templates for myself, and so the template that I got in order to create my posted tables today came from a variation that I had created in about October 2016,  so in that table, I did not end up changing any of the formulas that were contained therein, but instead I just plugging in the starting number of 100 BTC, and $20k as the starting price and then changing the percentage from either 5% or to 10% for each of the respective tables, and yeah for some reason, that particular template had an additional 0.998 and some other formulas in there that were multiplied in there and I had not even noticed those extra (seemingly buy-back related) formulas in there.

I did also just update those two tables, which your pointing out my formula error did cause pretty decently-sized changes in the final numbers and so I therefore changed some of my description of the meaning of the results that the tables show too. 

Thanks again fillippone.

[Hueristic]

Last time I let a wallet choose the fee.

Bitcoin Transaction
Broadcasted on 06 Aug 2023 03:19:43 GMT-4
Hash ID
66194dd0795096fa4689bf0a76b6605bb8ab9bbf149faf586d73a92bec6983d0
Amount
0.01287576BTC • $335.67
Fee
1,176SATS • $0.31
From
bc1ql-683ff
To
2 Outputs
This transaction is efficient, no issues detected.

2 Fucking weeks so far!

[pawel7777]

Last time I let a wallet choose the fee.
(...)
2 Fucking weeks so far!

This is why I switched to a wallet with RBF feature (Electrum). Some would let you boost up the fee with CPFP provided you have sufficient unspent output.

[Hueristic]

Last time I let a wallet choose the fee.
(...)
2 Fucking weeks so far!

This is why I switched to a wallet with RBF feature (Electrum). Some would let you boost up the fee with CPFP provided you have sufficient unspent output.

Sparrow has RBF, I've just been lazy and said fuck it.

Full control over fees

This wallet gives you full control over fees. This means that this wallet allows changing the fees after funds are sent using RBF or CPFP. This wallet also provides fee suggestions based on current network conditions so that your transactions are confirmed in a timely manner without paying more than you have to.

Its no rush I just don't like baby sitting shit.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Lot of WO members still surprised it was finally not « the last time we saw this BTC price » or not the « last bargain ».

I am still confident since I am heavily invested in BTC from early 2015 for LONG term (more longer than another cycle).

However, how ‘early’ BTC investors can be still surprised or naive after all the fact we have since the 2021 ATH cycle ?

- Weak ATH double top
- ‘Only’ x3.5 since 2017 ATH (20->69K).
- NO real rebound / signifiant bear market really on all the down 69->15.5K. Means : down almost 78% from the ATH with a shy x3.5 ATH.
- Went for the first time below the previous ATH (and more than 20% below).
- Staying below for months and below the 200 EMA.
- Some members compare with 2019, but in 2019 we had a real bear market rally till almost 14K (20K->3K->14K). Only thing we did till now it’s ‘only’ x2 from 15.5 to 31K after this straight down 69->15.5K without any substantial reaction. WEAK.

Current facts are BTC had a « weak » bullrun in 2021 (compare to previous ones), but  still kept a strong bear market without any ‘impressive’ bear market rally since almost 2 years.

AND we are still +/- 8months away from the halving. And most probably no spot ETF validation before Q1 2024 (if accepted).

And, without enter in the detail,  traditional markets, especially NASDAQ100 not smelling good for the next weeks/months.

So from a ‘bearish’ side we still have place and time to get  ‘new BTC bargain’ before the end of this year / early 2024.

DCA from now till end the year / halving time should probably be a good risk/reward.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, except for your seemingly smug "I told you so" tone, as if you really know anything more than anyone else, are you going to try to say that you got the bottom right from last year?  $15,479, remember? 

Or do you want to say the current bottom of $15,479 is not in? 

It seems that you are not necessarily going that far, but surely if BTC prices end up going down to some amount below our current local correction of $25,601, then you are surely going to want to say I told you so. But how far are you going to call now?

Sub $22k?  or sub $20k? or some other number?

I am not even going to try to enter any bet with you because I have already learned my lesson regarding your weasliness and disingenuineness when it comes to actually putting money on the line, and you seem to either think that a large amount needs to be bet, or you are just using those kinds of large amounts as a way to play the weasel.. .. anyhow.. not a bad post, otherwise... even though there are some of the characterization things that I don't really agree with.. but not really any big deal.. might just be stylistic in terms of attempting to support directional prediction variance that might exist between you and me.

[aesma]

Back from vacation to find the corn has crashed a little, but not enough to make me buy more than my DCA amount. Below 20K, I will be tempted (but then there is the issue of the fiat onramp again, annoying).

Last time I let a wallet choose the fee.

Bitcoin Transaction
Broadcasted on 06 Aug 2023 03:19:43 GMT-4
Hash ID
66194dd0795096fa4689bf0a76b6605bb8ab9bbf149faf586d73a92bec6983d0
Amount
0.01287576BTC • $335.67
Fee
1,176SATS • $0.31
From
bc1ql-683ff
To
2 Outputs
This transaction is efficient, no issues detected.

2 Fucking weeks so far!

mempool must be congested otherwise it should have been through by now

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[gallianooo]

Lot of WO members still surprised it was finally not « the last time we saw this BTC price » or not the « last bargain ».

I am still confident since I am heavily invested in BTC from early 2015 for LONG term (more longer than another cycle).

However, how ‘early’ BTC investors can be still surprised or naive after all the fact we have since the 2021 ATH cycle ?

- Weak ATH double top
- ‘Only’ x3.5 since 2017 ATH (20->69K).
- NO real rebound / signifiant bear market really on all the down 69->15.5K. Means : down almost 78% from the ATH with a shy x3.5 ATH.
- Went for the first time below the previous ATH (and more than 20% below).
- Staying below for months and below the 200 EMA.
- Some members compare with 2019, but in 2019 we had a real bear market rally till almost 14K (20K->3K->14K). Only thing we did till now it’s ‘only’ x2 from 15.5 to 31K after this straight down 69->15.5K without any substantial reaction. WEAK.

Current facts are BTC had a « weak » bullrun in 2021 (compare to previous ones), but  still kept a strong bear market without any ‘impressive’ bear market rally since almost 2 years.

AND we are still +/- 8months away from the halving. And most probably no spot ETF validation before Q1 2024 (if accepted).

And, without enter in the detail,  traditional markets, especially NASDAQ100 not smelling good for the next weeks/months.

So from a ‘bearish’ side we still have place and time to get  ‘new BTC bargain’ before the end of this year / early 2024.

DCA from now till end the year / halving time should probably be a good risk/reward.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, except for your seemingly smug "I told you so" tone, as if you really know anything more than anyone else, are you going to try to say that you got the bottom right from last year?  $15,479, remember? 

Or do you want to say the current bottom of $15,479 is not in? 

It seems that you are not necessarily going that far, but surely if BTC prices end up going down to some amount below our current local correction of $25,601, then you are surely going to want to say I told you so. But how far are you going to call now?

Sub $22k?  or sub $20k? or some other number?

I am not even going to try to enter any bet with you because I have already learned my lesson regarding your weasliness and disingenuineness when it comes to actually putting money on the line, and you seem to either think that a large amount needs to be bet, or you are just using those kinds of large amounts as a way to play the weasel.. .. anyhow.. not a bad post, otherwise... even though there are some of the characterization things that I don't really agree with.. but not really any big deal.. might just be stylistic in terms of attempting to support directional prediction variance that might exist between you and me.

Please JJG, we talked more than enough in the past regarding the bet. You can scroll up all our conversation. I wanted to bet for a ‘significative’ amount, not ‘peanuts’. You asked for time but didn’t get back then (and waiting more time help you to see where the market goes..). I don’t have the exact number, but I think you were able to bet than BTC will never go below 16Kish. But stop on it, enough talked about it, and too late now. Useless.

Regarding my last post, I didn’t say I know more than everybody, I just exposed facts since 2 years and you seem globally agree. We can be right, we can be wrong but according to these facts, any ‘early’ BTC investor/believer cannot be really surprise IMHO.

Based on the BTC history + timing + oversold and FTX collapse, I would say there is High chance than the bottom is in.
But to know if we will DEFINITELY bounce from 25Kish or if we will visit again 20/22K or even 16/18K for some (quick) moments, ofc nobody can know. Large target could be between 16 and 30K for some more months. That’s why DCA from there can be a good balance risk/reward till the REAL up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

https://newsbit.nl/chatgpt-voorspelt-dit-gebeurt-er-wanneer-alle-bitcoins-gemined-zijn/

Thankfully we still have FAKE AI!

True AI, should have corrected the question and said something in the lines of, we will see the ramifications of a diminishing block reward around the year 2036 - 2040. In terms of any significant additions of Bitcoin to the network, it will be around year 2052 (5126BTC or 0.02442599%)... We don't need to wait till the last reward block is found. 2140 should be treated as a milestone, if anything...

[FinePoine0]

#Bitcoin     Is Not Risky

This statement to many will seem absurd. Despite Bitcoin being the best performing asset in the history of the world, despite it being the only network in the world to never be hacked, despite it never being down once in the past 10 years, despite its inability to be stopped, most regard #BTC     as very risky. Why? Because they associate volatility with risk. This is a mistake.

Volatility is not risk. "Uncertainty" is risk, and #Bitcoin     is the most certain thing to every be made available to the human race. Just look at this certainty. 👇🏽

- There will never be more than 21 million #BTC    .
- Every 10 minutes, on average, a new block is added to the blockchain (I prefer timechain);
- Every 4 years, or every 210,000 blocks, BTC's issuance rate gets cut in half;
- Every 2,016 blocks, the bitcoin network adjusts its difficulty rate;
- In the year 2140, there will be no more bitcoin to mine.

All of these things are written in code, which is today's equivalent to the proverbial "written in stone."

#Bitcoin     is as certain as maths because it is maths. Bitcoin is certain because it doesn't rely on human involvement and the trust inherent in that approach. These things can't be changed, just as 1 +1 = 2 can't be changed.

This certainty makes #BTC     riskless at best or low risk at worse. But most won't accept this because of the mass conditioning that volatility equals risk. So let's put this to rest, once and for all.

#Bitcoin     operates in 4 year cycles, whereas we as humans have become accustomed to operating on yearly cycles. For #BTC    , its birthday comes every  four years. For us, every one year. These four year periods are called epochs. There are a total of 33 BTC epochs, at which point, BTC becomes fully an adult.  As I've mentioned, this last epoch is realized in the year 2140, 117 years from now.

From BTC birthday to BTC birthday (every four years), Bitcoin has no volatility. Think about this. Think about how profound this is if you get it. From epoch to epoch, there is no volatility. From halving to halving, there is no volatility. From leap year to leap year, there is zero volatility. What does this mean? Well, if volatility is how you measure risk, #Bitcoin       has zero risk if you're willing to give it four years.

The world currently applies this same logic to U.S. Treasuries, which are regarded as the world's safest investment. 10 year and 30 year treasury bonds are the two most popular long-term, riskless investments. Why are they considered riskless? Because the yield and the return of the original capital are guaranteed by the US government at the end of the term. It's not guaranteed in between terms, mind you. A 30-year bond can often wildly fluctuate in a volatile way in between terms, but this volatility is considered moot because of the guarantee at the end of the term (see image 1).

So why is this logic not applied to #Bitcoin       which has a guaranteed term of only 4 years, not 10 or 30, and rewards that shorter holding period with record-breaking gains? I believe this will be recognized and understood more and more.

bitcoinisthebettermoney.com/cagr

Buying #BTC     today is riskless because four years from today, there is no downside volatility, your original capital is cryptographically secured, mathematically guaranteed, and the historical gain is the best the world has ever seen or experienced (image 2).

#Bitcoin    's riskless 4-year bond-like cycle will not remain relatively unrecognized for long. More and more of the world's money will begin to see and act on this. Perhaps they have already begun to see it. Perhaps this is why those unwilling to sell their #BTC     keeps rising to all-time new high levels (image 3).





Details

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

Last time I let a wallet choose the fee.

Bitcoin Transaction
Broadcasted on 06 Aug 2023 03:19:43 GMT-4
Hash ID
66194dd0795096fa4689bf0a76b6605bb8ab9bbf149faf586d73a92bec6983d0
Amount
0.01287576BTC • $335.67
Fee
1,176SATS • $0.31
From
bc1ql-683ff
To
2 Outputs
This transaction is efficient, no issues detected.

2 Fucking weeks so far!

I remember a similar thing happening to me years ago. Ended up using that vaiBTC Transaction Accelerator thingie.
and it eventually went though within a few hours, after I had waited  a week.
Half a bitcoin sent to myself, (emptying an old obsolete wallet) so I was shitting myself because I thought I fucked up or something.
Back in the day I never bothered with the fee stuff because the wallet took care of it by default. I just hit send.