Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

https://newsbit.nl/chatgpt-voorspelt-dit-gebeurt-er-wanneer-alle-bitcoins-gemined-zijn/

[Biodom]

An alternative explanation:

Bitcoin is a leading indicator.
Check out the 2019 (a pre-halving year, just like 2023) chart: it starts optimistically, then goes into a declining zig-zag pattern.
What if bitcoin was "predicting" the future back then? The future was economic decline and brief deflation caused by covid and then, the recovery and 4-year pattern resumption.

Look at now: we are still in somewhat inflationary environment, but the deflationary forces are gathering: Evergrande bankrupcy, China decline (under-reported youth unemployment), peaking housing market in US, etc, etc. Granted, bond yields are still peaking, but maybe bitcoin price is leading. Once we re-invert the yield curve, normal (generally bullish) course of events should resume within 6 mo or so from the yield curve flattening or re-inversion and in case of bitcoin, could be even earlier.

I am not predicting long term doom and gloom as the deflationary impulse could be short lived, and it all should be settled before halving, imho.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Most oversold supposedly and still going down. All the graphs and tools suck ass.

I did look at that daily RSI, and it does look pretty low, relatively speaking to all of BTC's history that I could see (which ONLY allowed me to go back 2 years using the daily), but it still might be a BIG ASS so fucking what... even though it might justify a short-term bounce, and then maybe continued downity.  

If I look at 3D RSI and weekly RSI (which allowed me to go back 6.5 years and 11.5 years respectively), there are surely way lower RSI points in earlier periods as compared to now, so then the question becomes why get concerned about the daily RSI when there are longer term RSIs that we could also look at, and perhaps the main reason to look at the short-term RSI would be for someone wanting to make some kind of a short-term bet regarding the probabilities that we might get a bounce from her, and attempt to trade upon that information, and many of us here don't consider ourselves to be shorter-term traders (based on recent WO surveys maybe somewhere in the ballpark of 50-80% of us, depending on who you ask.)...  

...yet at the same time, I suppose that we are wall watchers, and so maybe some of us might consider that if there is some kind of convincing evidence, then we might want to try to either trade on that information or at least maybe decide whether to buy (a little more cornz) here or whether to sell if the RSI were in the opposite direction.. so that is a kind of trading (or hedging), I suppose.

Personally, at this time (and based on these current BTC prices) I am not really doing anything different than I had already been planning to do, which is buy when the BTC price goes down and sell when it goes up... and of course, for someone who might be reading my post for the first time, the way that I sell on the way up is to just sell very small amounts as the BTC price goes up, which seems to be somewhere in the ballpark of 0.5% for every 10% that the BTC price goes up (not exactly that, but somewhere in that ballpark amount).. so in that regard, maybe if the BTC had gone up 100% (doubled), then maybe I might have ended up selling 5% of the BTC from what I had at the 1/2 price.. ..

So my way of selling would look something like this if a hypothetical person had 10 BTC at $20k (that would be $200k), so every time the price doubles, then such hypothetical person's BTC would reduce yet his fiat value would be going up much faster than the amount that he is withdrawing, so the cashing out would look something like the below chart:^**

Example of hypothetical person cashing out 5% of BTC every time it doubles in fiat price

# BTC	Fiat Price	Total Value	Rake BTC	Rake USD	Rake_Running_USD_ TOTAL
10.00000	$40,000	$400,000.00	0.50000	$20,000.00	$20,000.00
9.50000	$80,000	$760,000.00	0.47500	$38,000.00	$58,000.00
9.02500	$160,000	$1,444,000.00	0.45125	$72,200.00	$130,200.00
8.57375	$320,000	$2,743,600.00	0.42869	$137,180.00	$267,380.00
8.14506	$640,000	$5,212,840.00	0.40725	$260,642.00	$528,022.00
7.73781	$1,280,000	$9,904,396.00	0.38689	$495,219.80	$1,023,241.80

**note:  I will apologize to fillippone in advance for the format of these charts, because I could not get his google spreadsheet conversion tool to work for me

**Revised note: The charts look nicer due fillippone providing me with a new template

So if I keep up this same 5% cashing for every doubling, by the time that the price get's to $1.28 million, such hypothetical person has ONLY cashed out around 2.65535 BTC (and he got more than $1 million in fiat for that) from his original 10 BTC stash that started out with a $20k value, and at the same time, his 7.73781 BTC stash is then worth about 9.9 million.

So really such person could potentially afford to be more aggressive with his cashing out of BTC than from that 5% formula and still maintain a pretty decently-sized investment portfolio value increase overall while enjoying some of the profits along the way and just having those profits along the way to be available to him, if he so chooses, and so even if such hypothetical person increases his cashing out amount to be 10% of his BTC stash for every BTC doubling of the BTC price, as the revised chart looks below, he is still doing pretty well by the time the BTC price reaches $1.28 million.

Example of hypothetical person cashing out 10% of BTC every time it doubles in fiat price

# BTC	Fiat Price	Total Value	Rake BTC	Rake USD	Rake_Running_USD_ TOTAL
10.00000	$40,000	$400,000.00	1.00000	$40,000.00	$40,000.00
9.00000	$80,000	$720,000.00	0.90000	$72,000.00	$112,000.00
8.10000	$160,000	$1,296,000.00	0.81000	$129,600.00	$241,600.00
7.29000	$320,000	$2,332,800.00	0.72900	$233,280.00	$474,880.00
6.56100	$640,000	$4,199,040.00	0.65610	$419,904.00	$894,784.00
5.90490	$1,280,000	$7,558,272.00	0.59049	$755,827.20	$1,650,611.20

Even in this revised scenario of cashing out 10% for every BTC price doubling, such hypothetical person has ONLY cashed out around 4.1 BTC (and he got about $1.65 million for that) from his original 10 BTC stash, and at the same time, his 5.9049 BTC stash is then worth nearly $7.6 million.

I am pretty sure that I am currently closer to the 5% per doubling scenario rather than the 10% per doubling scenario, but I still can recognize and appreciate that even a more aggressive cashing out of 10% per doubling does not necessarily deplete my BTC holdings and/or value in unacceptable ways, and each of us are still able to tweak the amounts to our own circumstances and senses.

Of course, if the hypothetical person buys back some of his sold BTC along the way, then the amount of the reduction in his BTC holdings may well not end up being as much as I am showing in these two tables... with this particular variation of the charts, there is a kind of assumption of selling at various UPpity price thresholds and not buying back with the proceeds of those on the way up BTC sales.

Edited: Fixing tables to not ONLY cause them to look nicer, but also becoming more substantively accurate based on fillippone's detection of a variation contained in my earlier amounts.  Based on changes in the numbers, I changed my descriptions of the substance and my interpretation of the meaning of the tables too.

[adultcrypto]

One last time, for the slow learners in the back....

A classical case of buy low, sell high to buy low. The market is a game and those who know how to play the game will survive.  Now that we have a low, why not buy more because the market will recover sooner than you can imagine.

[eXPHorizon]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

Sure we are getting close to the lower end of the don't wake me up range, so it is not clearly any kind of expectation that "we" are going to break below the range, even though surely the whole situation may well be feeling a bit dire at the moment to both be dancing below the 200-week moving average and also at the bottom of the don't wake me up range...

ok maybe its the pain meds or maybe i just missed this definition somewhere (or im just stupid lol) but what is this "dont wake me up range" you speak of?

[JayJuanGee]

Sure we are getting close to the lower end of the don't wake me up range, so it is not clearly any kind of expectation that "we" are going to break below the range, even though surely the whole situation may well be feeling a bit dire at the moment to both be dancing below the 200-week moving average and also at the bottom of the don't wake me up range...

ok maybe its the pain meds or maybe i just missed this definition somewhere (or im just stupid lol) but what is this "dont wake me up range" you speak of?

I am glad you asked.

jajajajajajaja


It used to be from $25k to $35k...  and sure it might need to be changed.. but that's what it used to be, when we were bouncing around $29k to $31k and some members were complaining about BTC price moves when we were in that $29k to $31k area... but now that we moves so fast down to almost reaching $25k.. ($25,601 so far), that could cause some wonders about whether "waking up" might be needed.. so then if "waking up" is needed, then the range might also need to be adjusted in accordance with that having had been "woken up".

[eXPHorizon]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[eXPHorizon]

Unbelievable what A.I art is doing.. truly fking hot n amazing

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

https://newsbit.nl/chatgpt-voorspelt-dit-gebeurt-er-wanneer-alle-bitcoins-gemined-zijn/

Desalniettemin, ben ik naar mijn waarneming niet alleen verbazingwekkend ontgoocheld dat Bitcoin met een schaamteloze waarde van $1 miljoen in 2050 niet de volle befaamdheid gekregen heeft wat het met volle teugen wel verdiend van het oorspronkelijk ontwerp om een financiële aarverschuiving in gang te zetten ten begunstige van de mens. Mag Chatgpt met zijn genuanceerde mening niet te oprechtelijk te zullen worden aangenomen.

[El duderino_]

https://newsbit.nl/chatgpt-voorspelt-dit-gebeurt-er-wanneer-alle-bitcoins-gemined-zijn/

Desalniettemin, ben ik naar mijn waarneming niet alleen verbazingwekkend ontgoocheld dat Bitcoin met een schaamteloze waarde van $1 miljoen in 2050 niet de volle befaamdheid gekregen heeft wat het met volle teugen wel verdiend van het oorspronkelijk ontwerp om een financiële aarverschuiving in gang te zetten ten begunstige van de mens. Mag Chatgpt met zijn genuanceerde mening niet te oprechtelijk te zullen worden aangenomen.

True

[SamReomo]

Make it be 171 posts in a row at 29k slot

damn buddy be playing on the freaking edge  


In a parody of JimboToronto

Go Buddy go!

Your rhythm broke after this post because the buddy understood that we are going to get a dump. Too many expectations but the result was totally shocking and unexpected. Hey Buddy can you please bring those days back as I want Phil to count at 29k once again.

[philipma1957]

Make it be 171 posts in a row at 29k slot

damn buddy be playing on the freaking edge  


In a parody of JimboToronto

Go Buddy go!

Your rhythm broke after this post because the buddy understood that we are going to get a dump. Too many expectations but the result was totally shocking and unexpected. Hey Buddy can you please bring those days back as I want Phil to count at 29k once again.

fuck may as well drop to 19.5k.

I will load up and the W.O. will be freaking out.

At 25 k I will say got a piece
At 24 k I will say got a bit more
At 23 k I will say damn buddy nice bargains

all the way down to 19k
at 19k I will . Be able to buy some nicely liquidated gear. and not buy any btc.

I figure 6 weeks of bargain hunting is coming my way.

Aug 19 to Sept 30.

This is one of the perks of buying the us I bonds back on 4/2022 as  I am now fully hedged if we drop under 20k.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Make it be 171 posts in a row at 29k slot

damn buddy be playing on the freaking edge  

In a parody of JimboToronto

Go Buddy go!

Your rhythm broke after this post because the buddy understood that we are going to get a dump. Too many expectations but the result was totally shocking and unexpected. Hey Buddy can you please bring those days back as I want Phil to count at 29k once again.

Kind of like a vindictive woman, Buddy does not seem to appreciate being taken for granted - which seemed to have begun to become the seeming direction of Philips chiding of buddy..

and it also seems that buddy gives less than two shits about whether you, philip or anyone else, whether individually or a team or not wants to get back to the $29ks.. doesn't matter how nice you ask...

Buddy is working on his/her/its own dime (although I would suggest that if you appreciate the services of Buddy, don't piss off richy t because he might take his marbles and go home, again)..  

fuck may as well drop to 19.5k.

In your dreams.

I will load up and the W.O. will be freaking out.

Yes.. because you oversold below $20k and want to get that back, and likely other folks here did not make the same mistake..

Sure, don't get me wrong.. you are not alone in terms of making mistakes.. we all make mistakes, and they come at various points in time, and they might also come from difficulties in giving up some of our mindset that is likely rooted in life-long gambling practices.. some peeps got dee bug worse than others.

At 25 k I will say got a piece
At 24 k I will say got a bit more
At 23 k I will say damn buddy nice bargains

every $1k?  mine are every $500 - but surely I am not cheering for them to happen.   I don't want them to happen.

Actually, I will admit that my buy orders down to $26 were a bit larger than the ones that are below $26k, but I was starting to get used to the fact that maybe they would not fill.. which was kind of what I would have preferred - even though surely some dilemmas can be had when it seems like some of the fiat (in your grubby hands) is more than you need or want... so there are some desires to buy BTC with some of it.. but gosh I also don't want to spend all of it either.. It is nice to have some fiat for spending purposes outside of buying BTC with it... I can think of a few things such as H, L & B.

all the way down to 19k
at 19k I will . Be able to buy some nicely liquidated gear. and not buy any btc.

I figure 6 weeks of bargain hunting is coming my way.

Aug 19 to Sept 30.

This is one of the perks of buying the us I bonds I am fully hedged if we drop.

Aren't you the smartest guy in the room to have had locked yourself into that shitty dollar product that is yielding you dollars too, to the extent that you can actually use any of that money  within the timeline that you are expecting.

Phil.. smartest guy in the room.

who would-a-thunk?

[fillippone]

**note:  I will apologize to fillippone in advance for the format of these charts, because I could not get his google spreadsheet conversion tool to work for me

Here JJG: I updated the sheet with a second template. you can open it and find your table with the customisable Rake %age

# BTC	Fiat Rate	Total Value	Rake BTC	Rake USD	Rake_Running_USD_ TOTAL
10.00000	$40,000	$400,000.00	0.50000	$20,000.00	$20,000.00
9.50000	$80,000	$760,000.00	0.47500	$38,000.00	$58,000.00
9.02500	$160,000	$1,444,000.00	0.45125	$72,200.00	$130,200.00
8.57375	$320,000	$2,743,600.00	0.42869	$137,180.00	$267,380.00
8.14506	$640,000	$5,212,840.00	0.40725	$260,642.00	$528,022.00
7.73781	$1,280,000	$9,904,396.00	0.38689	$495,219.80	$1,023,241.80

Warning. I used my formulas. Maybe I celebrated a little bit too much this evening, but why 5% of 400K is not 20K?

Unbelievable what A.I art is doing.. truly fking hot n amazing

Interesting. Which AI is it? Leonardo?
Asking because...reasons.