Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Greyhats]

Is the poll still a thing?

Suggestion:

When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?

   -- Before 2025
   -- 2025 ~ 2029
   -- 2029 ~ 2033   <--- My vote
   -- After 2033
   -- Never

Ah yes typical, take a great poll and argue about the options and their meanings. Since we are all torn trying to specualate on when the top is after a having cycle should we just go with a range as per OP?

In my own calculations, and forecasting I use the halving year as its the only constant cycle in cycle out. But then again my speculations dont need to be particular accurate based on time, +1/+2 years variances is ok. Gen Zoomer Outer here

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Is the poll still a thing?
Suggestion:

When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?
   -- Before 2025
   -- 2025 ~ 2029
   -- 2029 ~ 2033   <--- My vote
   -- The Day after I die.
   -- Never

FTFY

It's OK. Anyone who has sold BTC will live to regret it. Sort of.

I know you guys are trying to be funny, but surely there is a serious point here too.

I know that some people suggest that you can never have enough bitcoin, but that truly does not really seem to be true.

So let's say that in 2016/2017 your entry-level fuck you status is $1 million, and so by 2017, you had already accumulated 500 BTC, so when BTC price crosses over $2k, you already have reached your entry-level fuck you status based on then BTC prices, but  you are still worried about using spot price as any kind of indicator, but since BTC prices went all the way up to nearly $20k in 2017 and dropped back down to nearly $3k at its lowest in 2018, but you had already had gone from your entry-level fuck you status all the way up to 10x your entry-level fuck you status and at most dropped down to 1.5x your entry level fuck you status.

To me it seem that largely you can just be selling coins whenever you like, as long as you are kind of attempting to maintain some kind of a stash, so even if you shaved off 10 BTC at $10k in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, you still have 460 BTC, and let's say in March 2020 you become a bit jaded about how much you need for entry level fuck you status, so you move up your consideration of entry-level fuck you status from $1 million to $2 million, you still may well have continued to have been o.k. shaving off 10 BTC for each of the years of 2021, 2022 and 2023.. and maybe you shaved 10 for each of those years off at $20k.. .so then now you are down to 430BTC.. and do you think that you might need to start to be a bit more frugal.. even assuming that 10 BTC per year is not really very sustainable. so you start to feel that you need to reign yourself in a bit better....

I guess my point is that there are quantities of BTC that are enough, and you may well not feel any kind of regrets for selling some of them from time to time, and probably my example of selling is not the greatest.. but it still does seem to show that some people might be in positions in which they likely have enough BTC...

Even right now using the 200-week moving average as the value determination price for a $2million entry level fuck you status, our current price is largely at the 200-week moving average (at $28k), so we are seeing that there is ONLY a need for 71.42857143 BTC in order to be at entry-level fuck you status, so if you have more than that amount, then you should be able to shave them off at your own discretion while keeping in mind that you might want to be careful not to go below that amount, but our guy who has 430BC likely has quite a bit of enough of a cushion to feel comfortable shaving off 5-10 BTC or more per year for several years.. but maybe someone who ONLY has around 100 BTC might want to be more careful in terms of budgeting how many BTC to shave off each year or even each quarter or month depending on how frequently s/he is shaving off coins. and/or the extent to which s/he is trying to be strategic in regards to such BTC shavings.

Is the poll still a thing?
Suggestion:
When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?
   -- Before 2025
   -- 2025 ~ 2029
   -- 2029 ~ 2033   <--- My vote
   -- The Day after I die.
   -- Never

FTFY

It's OK. Anyone who has sold BTC will live to regret it. Sort of.

Yes, as long as that bitcoin stayed sold 

Trading and/or maintaining your stash through selling and buying back is another kind of story.

Is the poll still a thing?
Suggestion:
When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?
   -- Before 2025
   -- 2025 ~ 2029
   -- 2029 ~ 2033   <--- My vote
   -- The Day after I die.
   -- Never

FTFY

It's OK. Anyone who has sold BTC will live to regret it. Sort of.

Nope, I don't think so and by the way lots of people sold off their BTC when the price was at the f*cking lowest but I don't think they are regretting although the regret is those that don't meet buying more.
Laszlo for example am sure isn't regretting buying a pizza with his mind blowing amount of BTC worth tons of cash in today and that's same occurrence that's going to be happening even when BTC reaches a million bucks because people will continue using their crypto currency @BTC

I was with you all the way until the end, Mr.suevie, when you used that dumbass term cryptocurrency and then suggesting that you are using that term but you really mean BTC.. so why the fuck use that term?  why not just say BTC?  Are you trying to sound smarter? and more objective? or like you have identified a category that has meaning?  and you are so brave because you specified BTC as being the thrust of your point. 

To me, it does not seem necessary to use the term cryptocurrency unless you might be talking about shitcoins or including shitcoins into your discussion, including if you might be talking about bitcoin too.. but as long as you are mostly wanting to talk about bitcoin, then you probably should say bitcoin. .. but there might be some points in which you might say.. this includes shitcoins too.. are you  pumping them or denigrating them might be optional...so mentioning shitcoins still might be topical, even in a thread that has bitcoin as its topic.

fuck shitcoins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[shahzadafzal]

^^^
Adding to AlcoHoDL‘s discussion

It’s not only us discussing $1M BTC this dude also thinks BTC can be  > $750K by 2026


https://x.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1709886903338549499?s=46

[BobLawblaw]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DireWolfM14]

i think its more a "when will the dollar collapse to $1M per BTC" question

As soon as the Democrats steal the next election.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[adultcrypto]

i think its more a "when will the dollar collapse to $1M per BTC" question

As soon as the Democrats steal the next election.

You think that's enough for a Bitcoin equal to $1m ? Well, I don't know the correlation, maybe a weakened dollar will be a stronger Bitcoin. It is actually possible that investors might look the way of Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar.

[coolcoinz]

Love how credible these guys are and it takes just a minute to verify them, so I'll leave this here:

"co-founder and chief executive of crypto exchange BitMEX who had projected that the price of bitcoin would skyrocket to US$50,000 in 2018."
https://www.ccn.com/top-5-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions-of-2018/

Also, in September of 2020 Hayes predicted that YFI (at 40k at that time) could reach $100k. A month after his prediction it was already below 30k and now going for only 5k. If you bought that when Hayes talked about it, you'd go bankrupt

[JayJuanGee]

i think its more a "when will the dollar collapse to $1M per BTC" question

As soon as the Democrats steal the next election.

You think that's enough to a Bitcoin equal to $1m ? Well, I don't know the correlation, maybe a weekend dollar will be a stronger Bitcoin. It is actually possible that investors might look the way of Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar.

Even though a weakening dollar may well end up contributing to bitcoin getting to $1million faster, it seems safer to be making predictions in terms of today's dollars, and yeah, it ends up screwing up some of your later predictions, so for example, if the dollar is normally cut in half every 10 years, but such cutting in half is accelerated, then it may well ONLY be worth 10-20% of its current value in 10 years, so an evaluation of $1 million is only worth $100k to $200k in today's dollars.. .. which is more bullish for the BTC price, but we should still be careful in terms of determining how we are thinking about  reaching our own entry-level fuck you status.., and how much BTC and/or anything else that we might need to be invested into based on such calculation attempts..

Love how credible these guys are and it takes just a minute to verify them, so I'll leave this here:

"co-founder and chief executive of crypto exchange BitMEX who had projected that the price of bitcoin would skyrocket to US$50,000 in 2018."
https://www.ccn.com/top-5-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions-of-2018/
Also, in September of 2020 Hayes predicted that YFI (at 40k at that time) could reach $100k. A month after his prediction it was already below 30k and now going for only 5k. If you bought that when Hayes talked about it, you'd go bankrupt

Bitcoin was not $40k in September 2020... maybe in September 2021.

Hopefully no one is going bancrupt from being bullish on bitcoin, especially since bitcoin is more of a longer term play rather than something that you fuck around in the short term... so anyone dollar cost averaging into bitcoin for the last 3 years, since September 2020, may be right around break even prices, but it should be a better position to be to have had been dollar cost averaging into bitcoin rather than not getting into it or just starting out right now...

So far in bitcoin, time in the market has tended to pay off better than attempting to time the market, so surely that means that the longer that you have been in bitcoin, then the more likely that you are in a better place than if you had not gotten into bitcoin.

You have been registered on the forum since April 2015 coolcoinz.. so if you had been buying $100 per week worth of bitcoin you would have invested $44,200 and you would currently have around 29 BTC... so hopefully whatever you have been doing in the past 8.5 years in regards to bitcoin or not has been able to at least match those kinds of levels of returns.

[OutOfMemory]

Memento?
Really great movie, most likely in my top 10 (if i had a toplist).
I would never have thought that i will end up like the protagonist.
OK, it's really not the same magnitude of memory loss, but i can quite feel the main character.

[adultcrypto]

i think its more a "when will the dollar collapse to $1M per BTC" question

As soon as the Democrats steal the next election.

You think that's enough to a Bitcoin equal to $1m ? Well, I don't know the correlation, maybe a weekend dollar will be a stronger Bitcoin. It is actually possible that investors might look the way of Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar.

Even though a weakening dollar may well end up contributing to bitcoin getting to $1million faster, it seems safer to be making predictions in terms of today's dollars, and yeah, it ends up screwing up some of your later predictions, so for example, if the dollar is normally cut in half every 10 years, but such cutting in half is accelerated, then it may well ONLY be worth 10-20% of its current value in 10 years, so an evaluation of $1 million is only worth $100k to $200k in today's dollars.. .. which is more bullish for the BTC price, but we should still be careful in terms of determining how we are thinking about  reaching our own entry-level fuck you status.., and how much BTC and/or anything else that we might need to be invested into based on such calculation attempts..

Happy you understood my point with the numerous typo errors which I have now corrected. One thing that is certain is that the dollar will always have inflation to contend with and that is to the advantage of Bitcoin. 
Personally, I have not been able to place an exact future price on Bitcoin as I feel that is somehow unnecessary. Rather I work with the mindset that Bitcoin will continue to appreciate in value over a time range like couple of years... this alone is enough motivation for me to buy and hold.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

i think its more a "when will the dollar collapse to $1M per BTC" question

As soon as the Democrats steal the next election.

You think that's enough to a Bitcoin equal to $1m ? Well, I don't know the correlation, maybe a weekend dollar will be a stronger Bitcoin. It is actually possible that investors might look the way of Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar.

Even though a weakening dollar may well end up contributing to bitcoin getting to $1million faster, it seems safer to be making predictions in terms of today's dollars, and yeah, it ends up screwing up some of your later predictions, so for example, if the dollar is normally cut in half every 10 years, but such cutting in half is accelerated, then it may well ONLY be worth 10-20% of its current value in 10 years, so an evaluation of $1 million is only worth $100k to $200k in today's dollars.. .. which is more bullish for the BTC price, but we should still be careful in terms of determining how we are thinking about  reaching our own entry-level fuck you status.., and how much BTC and/or anything else that we might need to be invested into based on such calculation attempts..

Happy you understood my point with the numerous typo errors which I have now corrected. One thing that is certain is that the dollar will always have inflation to contend with and that is to the advantage of Bitcoin. 
Personally, I have not been able to place an exact future price on Bitcoin as I feel that is somehow unnecessary. Rather I work with the mindset that Bitcoin will continue to appreciate in value over a time range like couple of years... this alone is enough motivation for me to buy and hold.

So part of the question for anyone investing into bitcoin as compared with placing their value (their discretionary income) in some other place, is that they have to determine the extent to which bitcoin may well out perform some other assets, or at least to be reasonably competitive in terms of where to put my value over the period of time that I want to try to preserve (and perhaps grow) such value.

Maybe we just need to be directionally correct, and surely some people do not even have a whole lot of options.. maybe they only have dollars and cash, and sure they can get involved in shitcoins because those do not seem to have many barriers to entry, but it does not mean that it is a good idea merely because it is available as an option.

It seems to me that one of the better things is just to think in terms of yourself in terms of how much you are willing, ready and able to allocate to bitcoin, and then build that over time, and hopefully your investment will end up giving you more options in the future as compared to other options that you might have had available to you... and surely it is not necessarily an all or nothing play and surely along the way you could make withdrawals of some of the value that you had put into bitcoin, but you still might want to consider how much to withdraw and what are your purposes in withdrawing in terms of if you believe that you have built a large enough stash in order to transition into a stage in which you feel that you are able to start withdrawing some of it from time to time.

You surely do not need to cross the future bridge in the present, since you are going to have to see how it plays out, and at the same time,  it does not hurt to consider various possible outcomes in order to be able to be prepared to cross certain bridges when the time comes, even if you might currently be in more of an accumulation stage rather than a later maintenance stage and then an even later liquidation stage... and surely there are transitions between those three stages that are not going to be the same for everyone who builds up his/her bitcoin portfolio in order to have the options in the first place.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Love how credible these guys are and it takes just a minute to verify them, so I'll leave this here:

"co-founder and chief executive of crypto exchange BitMEX who had projected that the price of bitcoin would skyrocket to US$50,000 in 2018."
https://www.ccn.com/top-5-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions-of-2018/

Also, in September of 2020 Hayes predicted that YFI (at 40k at that time) could reach $100k. A month after his prediction it was already below 30k and now going for only 5k. If you bought that when Hayes talked about it, you'd go bankrupt

In May 15 2018, @AH predicts 50000, EOY 3729, prediction divisor 13.41; now @AH predicts 750-1000K by 2026.
Applying "Hays correction" 1000000/13.41 gets us 74.58K.
A bit "whimpy", haha.

[JayJuanGee]

A bit "whimpy", haha.

You are not going to get away with trying to point fingers to peeps who are even more whimpy, if such a thing is even possible.

[danadc]

Please guys, don't get carried away by the fud, here is a good analysis:

3 reasons why Bitcoin is struggling to rally above $28.5K

It’s worth noting that the decrease in trading volumes may be attributed to major U.S.-based trading firms, such as Jane Street Group and Jump Trading, distancing themselves from the cryptocurrency markets ahead of May 2023. Bloomberg reported that the primary reason for this shift was “heightened regulatory scrutiny,” which rendered the market less appealing to institutional investors.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-reasons-why-bitcoin-struggles-to-rally-above-29k


There is a reading that I want to share, it is the opinion of someone who likes how he sees the market's approach:

“There appears to have been significant buying flows, possibly driven by the start of a new accounting quarter, and the resulting moves were exacerbated by scarce week-end liquidity,” said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital-asset derivatives liquidity provider OrBit Markets in Singapore.

The rally is expected to continue in October, typically a positive month for crypto markets, with $30,000 seen as the next major resistance level for Bitcoin, she said.

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-advances-to-6-week-high-as-new-quarter-sees-inflows/articleshow/104102651.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Source: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-advances-to-6-week-high-as-new-quarter-sees-inflows/articleshow/104102651.cms

It may indicate that the trend is going to rise, I had said here that Bitcoin could rise to 30k, there is no need to distrust or be such a non-believer, it will rise.

Other perspectives are giving this:

Bitcoin largely has defied the selloff in stocks and other risk assets this week as global bond yields hit multiyear highs. Bullish traders are hoping October can live up to its historic record as a good month for the cryptocurrency,

“We consider that the end of the US Federal Reserve’s current tightening cycle is around the corner, which is at least limiting crypto’s downside from current levels,” wrote Manuel Villegas, an analyst at Julius Baer.

Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crypto-markets-today-dc325890

I think this is going to go up, Bitcoin can go up and we are on the verge of it happening, it is time for some to buy.