I don't post often, but have been part of this forum for 11 years. I'm looking for someone to provide a counter argument to these statements, which is where I believe we are going in the next ten years:
The approval of the Bitcoin ETF should be an absolute game changer in the sense that:
1. Most people buy ETF's for the long term; they are usually not looking for a quick profit buy/dump. They are a crucial component to many 401k programs where as we all know -- funds get bought and held for the long term. Obviously yes, at point of retirement, distributions are taken, but right now - there is much more buying going on than selling and this should continue slowly and steadily into the foreseeable future.
2. Couple this with the fact that around 88% of the total supply is already in circulation, how can we not continue to see a slow and steady growth in price as the scarcity issue gets larger and larger each day?
3. Approval of the ETF albeit even while that arsehole Gensler poo-pooed it gives it even more legitimacy to the consumer that was previously wary.
4. Exchange supply is extremely low right now, and the halving is right around the corner. Our current price may already reflect all of the points I am making, but again, as time goes by and supply remains limited, where else can we go but up up up?
5. I see $100,000 on the horizon but I see us reaching this slowly over the next 18 months.
What a great time to be a proud believer in Bitcoin.
You seem to be bearish. I cannot see how so much ongoing buying of BTC could result in such a slow movement towards a mere doubling of the current BTC price over 18 months....
It is seeming difficult to imagine the BTC price staying below $100k until mid year... but sure, anything can happen, it just seems that ongoing UPPity BTC price pressures are ongoing, continuous and persistent.. and so who is going to keep selling them the coins? Sure people are going to sell, but are there going to be as many sellers as buyers, and even in an ongoing way? I have my doubts.
for me being aggressive should be focused on when you have a higher paying job and being Wimpy when you have no job to back you up in the journey. I believe someone who has a higher earning with aggressive investment can DCA big fund weekly, and take care of his other responsibilities and have a better emergency fund except the person is a careless or an extravagant spender otherwise there is no point of have a bigger fund and yet lack a better strategic plan. although sometimes peop with high earning are always tempted to spend alot I must confess. you know they say when your money is big your responsibility also increase along with your current financial status. it only takes self decipline to control the urge of excessive or extravagant spending.
So something I did about two years ago, was to add my nearly "agressive dca" amount to my emergency fund so that if in the future i had to tap the emergency funds for month to month living I could continue to dca into BTC. Just some food for thought with good planning you dont have to wimpy if you lose your job.
Part of the reason for the emergency fund is to be prepared to spend it in the currency in which your expenses or denominated.
Rich people likely have their emergency funds in their assets and it ends up being a drop in the bucket, but if you keep your emergency funds in bitcoin and the emergency happens when the BTC price is in a 50% or 85% or some other extreme correction, you need to be prepared for those kinds of possibilities, and sure you will get thorugh the emergency, and even some folks who might have 5x their fuck you entry level status, they likely could get by with a 85% drop in BTC prices because the emergencies that might be 1-6 months of their monthly expenses might ONLY end up taking less than 1 or 2% of their total BTC holdings... so yeah, maybe they don't want to do it, but they have so much cushion that it really does not matter very much.
Versus some poor schmuck who has ONLY been investing in BTC less than a whole cycle (and look in the mirror Greyhats with your mid-2021 forum registration date), he could end up getting fucked out of a whole year or two of his investment into BTC.. and yeah, maybe it will work and maybe it won't, but I would not be considering that you are getting more BTC because you are using your emergency fund to buy BTC, when you end up not really having emergency and you end up having to sell the thing that is most valuable, largely because you were greedy and gambling and even recommending others to do the same thing..
There are ways to be aggressive and even to be overly aggressive in your ways of investing, even into BTC, but we need to make sure that we have cash, especially the larger our bitcoin investment gets. or even when we are in those earliest of years building it.
You are all smart and funny until someone's eye get's poked out, and hopefully it is ONLY your own eye rather than others doing similar kinds of gambling with their BTC holdings and calling it investing.
Mindrust also thought that he was being smarter than everyone else, when back then many of us were suggesting to invest 10% to 20% at most into bitcoin, and he was investing more than 40%.. and I think at some point, he said that he was being conservative in his estimation of 40% and he said that he knew that he was overdoing it, but he thought it was the best thing to do in order to prepare for UPpity.. and yeah, he was prepared for Uppity.. but he was not prepared for the opposite.. which ended up being his need (emotional perhaps) for the emergency fund at a time that ended up NOT being good.. and part of the reason also is that when the BTC price kept dropping from $7k to $6k, to $5k, he kept buying, but then when it dropped to $4.5k, he ran out of money.. and yeah, he might have actually run out of money in the lower $5ks.. so that is why he panicked by the time that the price got to $4.5k. so he ended up selling rather than buying.. because he did not have any money left and he had not planned for such outrageousness in the BTC price, and sure at that time, he did not sell at the absolute bottom (which was $3,850 at that time in March 2020), but he was pretty damned close to the bottom and he ended up mostly being psychologically paralyzed from his own making.
And your emergency might not unravel the same and it might not be as extreme as mindrust's.. but you still are putting yourself into a gambling posture when you screw around too much with emergency funds.
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