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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26367102 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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February 22, 2024, 08:26:47 PM

This AI shite seems to be the biggest bubble since the Dot Com boom, certainly with this amount of nonsense propaganda injected from the go, but whatever....
I wonder if a light bulb will ever go off in Nvidia and Microsoft shareholders that this is merely machine learning and not really AI yet.... Hmmm....

That's what i keep saying if the AI topic comes to the table.
I'm already a long runner in the IT business and yes, "machine learning" is the appropiate term for what is sold as AI to the world.
In fact, all things "thinking" linear instead of networked are non-AI, which is likely aint going to happen before quantum computing.
Just my 2 artificial cents.
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February 22, 2024, 08:31:16 PM
Last edit: February 23, 2024, 09:50:25 AM by ivomm
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)

I think it’s maybe a good idea to set yourself a fiat value in sales and then try to hit that, rather than a certain amount of bitcoin you sell. How much fiat do you need to satisfy your needs for the next four years (from end of 2025) until we get ready to do it all again.


So, you are following a different path from JJG, which is primarily focused on the BTC part of the stash.
Of course, the selling is activated by triggering some fiat-denominated values. But I guess it is a consequence, rather than the trigger.
I tend to believe in the case of USD debasement you could sell too early.

 As always, the Wall Observer will be a fun place to see the wild emotions of fellow bitcoin bros.
As always. We are here for this, after all.

I think the 4-year cycles will be more and more subdued as time goes on. Going from 3.125 to 1.5625 isn't like going from 25 to 12.5. Proportional effect isn't applicable IMO: the ratio of "new" to "old" bitcoin does matter, and I believe the effects of halvings will get negligible (close to zero) long before that ratio goes to zero.

I've said this before, long before (and therefore independently from) the ETFs. But the introduction of spot ETFs will, in my scenario, act as an additional stabilizer, leveling out the big halving waves even more than they would have on their own.
At first glance your logic explains the diminishing bull cycles. But in fact it is totally erroneous. The mining reward only indirectly affects the price. The price is not a function of the mining reward. The price is a result of the balance of supply and demand on the spot market. It is so delicate that even a butterfly can tip it on one direction or another. And that butterfly is definitely the mining reward among other complicated news and factors. Here is where you make a mistake - you don't take into account the price at each halving! In 2020 the price was about 9 000$. If for a day approximately 1800 bitcoins were mined, this means that the 9000x1800=16 200 000$ were needed to buy the bitcoins from the miners per day before the 2020 halving. After the halving the sum is reduced in half, i.e. 8 100 000$. Now, the price is around 52000$, so 46 800 000$ are needed daily. And after the halving the sum will be 23 400 000$. So,  in the previous halving the market needed 8 100 000$ less to buy the miner bitcoins, and after the next halving it will need 23 400 000$ less. This is nearly 3x bigger number, so the effect on the market will be 3x stronger than in 2020. This doesn't mean that the bull  cycle will be a function of this parameter and be 3x bigger. It just means that the role of the halvings on the market won't diminish with time.

Now the percentage of institutions holding bitcoins is rapidly increasing thanks to the spot ETFs. This is the reason why 2 months before the halving the price is at 77% from the ATH. This is far more than at the previous halvings. For example, for nearly a month the combined ETF net inflows are above 100 000BTC which is much more than everybody expected. The OTC desks are literally empty and have to purchase from the spot exchanges each day. And the things will get even better, when Greyscale outflows stop.
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February 22, 2024, 10:05:30 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (1), goldkingcoiner (1)



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February 22, 2024, 11:42:45 PM

White people no longer exist according to Google's AI "tool".


Oh no, Doc.... We need to change the future before it's too late.

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February 22, 2024, 11:48:19 PM

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2021 just a car?  In my country that's a well furnished house
Current Bitcoin can do same but wouldn't be of same standard
Since inflation is eating my country like monkeys to Bananas.
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February 23, 2024, 02:09:04 AM

Since the thread in which I was posting/responding was locked, I am going to post my response here, in this lovely thread, and I will also invite Pi-network314159 to look at my response in this thread and decide whether he is going to respond further.
it's my pleasure and honour being invited here, but after this reply I would like the conversation to continue in this post.

Per your request, I have already posted my response in that other thread.

[edited out]
Isn't "aggressive" or "wimpy" meant in a situation-dependent way?
So if i have about $100 to spend each month through various ways of generating income and minimizing outflow, i would be "wimpy" to invest $1-$10 of it for DCAing Bitcoin vs. "aggressive" if investing $90-$100, right? I would also be "aggressive" if i, for example, cut my healthy but costly diet down to only eat potatoes and rice (or Ramen, to introduce a bit of religious humor...), right?
At least this is the way i understand this terminology: In relative, not absolute terms.
To be able to follow this discussion, do my assumptions, which are by no means complete, just simple examples, match?

That is the way that I attempt to use the term, so we can describe a person as whimpy or aggressive within his own abilities to choose to invest into bitcoin versus some other way of prioritizing his time, energy and value.  Your example seems to capture the essence of the matter.

Yeah, people get confused sometimes to suggest that a person who ONLY has $400 per month of disposable income versus someone who has $4,000 per month of disposable income, the one with the $400 disposable income would be maxing out his level of aggressiveness in regards to bitcoin if he were to be buying $100 per week of bitcoin, versus the $4,000 per month guy would be pretty whimpy if he is choosing only to invest $100 per week.. and surely these are individual choices.. and personally, I would not recommend to invest 100% of your disposable income on bitcoin, but there might be some percent that works but there also might be other things going on that need to be considered, including but not limited to how solid is the emergency fund, the reserve funds and/or float... so if a person has 6 months of emergency funds and 6 months of reserve funds, he can afford to be both aggressive and even overly aggressive in terms of measuring how much of his disposable income that he is using towards bitcoin.
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February 23, 2024, 04:52:59 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1), somac. (1), strawbs (1)

I don't post often, but have been part of this forum for 11 years.  I'm looking for someone to provide a counter argument to these statements, which is where I believe we are going in the next ten years:

The approval of the Bitcoin ETF should be an absolute game changer in the sense that:

1.  Most people buy ETF's for the long term; they are usually not looking for a quick profit buy/dump.  They are a crucial component to many 401k programs where as we all know -- funds get bought and held for the long term.  Obviously yes, at point of retirement, distributions are taken, but right now - there is much more buying going on than selling and this should continue slowly and steadily into the foreseeable future.

2. Couple this with the fact that around 88% of the total supply is already in circulation, how can we not continue to see a slow and steady growth in price as the scarcity issue gets larger and larger each day?

3.  Approval of the ETF albeit even while that arsehole Gensler poo-pooed it gives it even more legitimacy to the consumer that was previously wary.

4.  Exchange supply is extremely low right now, and the halving is right around the corner.  Our current price may already reflect all of the points I am making, but again, as time goes by and supply remains limited, where else can we go but up up up?

5.  I see $100,000 on the horizon but I see us reaching this slowly over the next 18 months.  

What a great time to be a proud believer in Bitcoin.

You seem to be bearish.  I cannot see how so much ongoing buying of BTC could result in such a slow movement towards a mere doubling of the current BTC price over 18 months....

It is seeming difficult to imagine the BTC price staying below $100k until mid year... but sure, anything can happen, it just seems that ongoing UPPity BTC price pressures are ongoing, continuous and persistent.. and so who is going to keep selling them the coins? Sure people are going to sell, but are there going to be as many sellers as buyers, and even in an ongoing way?  I have my doubts.

for me being aggressive should be focused on when you have a higher paying job and being Wimpy when you have no job to back you up in the journey. I believe someone who has a higher earning with aggressive investment can DCA big fund weekly, and take care of his other responsibilities and have a better emergency fund except the person is a careless or an extravagant spender otherwise there is no point of have a bigger fund and yet lack a better strategic plan. although sometimes peop with high earning are always tempted to spend alot I must confess. you know they say when your money is big your responsibility also increase along with your current financial status. it only takes self decipline to control the urge of excessive or extravagant spending.
So something I did about two years ago, was to add my nearly "agressive dca" amount to my emergency fund so that if in the future i had to tap the emergency funds for month to month living I could continue to dca into BTC. Just some food for thought with good planning you dont have to wimpy if you lose your job.

Part of the reason for the emergency fund is to be prepared to spend it in the currency in which your expenses or denominated.

Rich people likely have their emergency funds in their assets and it ends up being a drop in the bucket, but if you keep your emergency funds in bitcoin and the emergency happens when the BTC price is in a 50% or 85% or some other extreme correction, you need to be prepared for those kinds of possibilities, and sure you will get thorugh the emergency, and even some folks who might have 5x their fuck you entry level status, they likely could get by with a 85% drop in BTC prices because the emergencies that might be 1-6 months of their monthly expenses might ONLY end up taking less than 1 or 2% of their total BTC holdings... so yeah, maybe they don't want to do it, but they have so much cushion that it really does not matter very much.

Versus some poor schmuck who has ONLY been investing in BTC less than a whole cycle (and look in the mirror Greyhats with your mid-2021 forum registration date), he could end up getting fucked out of a whole year or two of his investment into BTC.. and yeah, maybe it will work and maybe it won't, but I would not be considering that you are getting more BTC because you are using your emergency fund to buy BTC, when you end up not really having emergency and you end up having to sell the thing that is most valuable, largely because you were greedy and gambling and even recommending others to do the same thing..

There are ways to be aggressive and even to be overly aggressive in your ways of investing, even into BTC, but we need to make sure that we have cash, especially the larger our bitcoin investment gets. or even when we are in those earliest of years building it.

You are all smart and funny until someone's eye get's poked out, and hopefully it is ONLY your own eye rather than others doing similar kinds of gambling with their BTC holdings and calling it investing.

Mindrust also thought that he was being smarter than everyone else, when back then many of us were suggesting to invest 10% to 20% at most into bitcoin, and he was investing more than 40%.. and I think at some point, he said that he was being conservative in his estimation of 40% and he said that he knew that he was overdoing it, but he thought it was  the best thing to do in order to prepare for UPpity.. and yeah, he was prepared for Uppity.. but he was not prepared for the opposite.. which ended up being his need (emotional perhaps) for the emergency fund at a time that ended up NOT being good.. and part of the reason also is that when the BTC price kept dropping from $7k to $6k, to $5k, he kept buying, but then when it dropped to $4.5k, he ran out of money.. and yeah, he might have actually run out of money in the lower $5ks.. so that is why he panicked by the time that the price got to $4.5k. so he ended up selling rather than buying.. because he did not have any money left and he had not planned for such outrageousness in the BTC price, and sure at that time, he did not sell at the absolute bottom (which was $3,850 at that time in March 2020), but he was pretty damned close to the bottom and he ended up mostly being psychologically paralyzed from his  own making.

And your emergency might not unravel the same and it might not be as extreme as mindrust's.. but you still are putting yourself into a gambling posture when you screw around too much with emergency funds.
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