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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26354408 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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February 23, 2024, 04:53:52 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3), DirtyKeyboard (1)

gm

everyone doing ok?   good good.....hang in there

the morning stretch is here
up you go
stand up.......shake those arms out

let the tensions flow away

arms straight out to your sides....palms up
now raise them overhead until they touch 5 times
turn your palm down and repeat......slow and smooth

nice....now a couple of deeps breaths and roll those neck muscles....relax

good....carry on


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the morning wall report

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heavy selling the last hour defended against 
the snow moon comes
named for the full moon of February when snow fall is at its highest in the US
it is also a micromoon...meaning it is at apogee or the farthest from Earth in its orbit


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1h


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February 23, 2024, 06:46:57 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (3), somac. (2), AlcoHoDL (1)

My email correspondence with Satoshi in 2009-2011:
https://mmalmi.github.io/satoshi/

Martti Malmi
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A.K.A. Sirius

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February 23, 2024, 07:03:05 PM

My email correspondence with Satoshi in 2009-2011:
https://mmalmi.github.io/satoshi/

Martti Malmi
Bitcoin dev 2009-2011
A.K.A. Sirius



thanks for  this link
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February 23, 2024, 07:03:25 PM


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February 23, 2024, 07:04:49 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

It is seeming difficult to imagine the BTC price staying below $100k until mid year... but sure, anything can happen, it just seems that ongoing UPPity BTC price pressures are ongoing, continuous and persistent.. and so who is going to keep selling them the coins? Sure people are going to sell, but are there going to be as many sellers as buyers, and even in an ongoing way?  I have my doubts.
I agree with you that it is going to cross $100k by the middle of this year, not only that but I think it will break all the previous records this time, if that happens then many people will become millionaires very easily.

Be careful in measuring millionaire status by the BTC spot price - and surely at some point $100k is also going to end up being a bottom and that BTC prices will not ever go below that point again, yet it is hard to consider yourself millionaire status if you are merely measuring from spot price changes in BTC, unless you sell your BTC .. and should any of us be considering that?

On the other hand, if you are considering your BTC valuation in terms of bottoms rather than tops, then that is more conducive to a millionaire status kind of thinking.. or maybe you could end up doing something like AlcoHoDL, even though it did not really seem to make as much sense on the first few rolls that he said it, yet in his case, if he was wanting to think of his lil selfie as millionaire status, then he would need to reach 5x that amount to then rest assured that he reached millionaire status.. .. so he is using the top to measure his status, but he is not resting assured until the spot price is 5x the threshold.. .. which still seems a bit crazy.. but it is kind of presuming the odds of greater than an 80% correction are not very great.. which probably would be true.

So hopefully if you are considering $100k as millionaire status then you have something closer to 50 BTC rather than 10 BTC.. even though surely we could still feel good to be millionaire on paper if we are thinking that we are not going to be selling in order to lock in our status (which may well not be a good idea).

I am much more comfortable using the 200-WMA as my measure of BTC value... yet at the same time, it is not likely to be moving up very much merely if BTC's spot price ends up making it to $100k by the middle of this year or even somewhere in that ballpark.. give or take 3-6 months. 

Right now with current BTC price dynamics  of the last 200 weeks and especially including our last few months, we are ontrack to get most-likely scenarios of anywhere between around an 18% to 22% increase in the 200-WMA for this latest 6-month period that ends in the end of May, even though my entry-level fuck you status chart had ONLY projected it as 16%... so whatever, I am likely going to adjust my projections a wee bit in order to account for that.... but it feels a bit dirty.. .. and maybe I can just change each of the next 3 to be in the 20% arena (even though I initially projected 16%-ish), but then once I do that, then I start to feel tempted to change the percentage increase expectations further down the line.. so it just feels a bit awkward, and PlanB gets accused of the same kind of science in which he is continuing to make adjustments to his model based on current events..  and I don't personally have any problem with that.. since I am trying to project into the future based on present facts. and those present facts change and they also seem to change the future projections. .and maybe a bit of tweaking every 6 months in order to attempt to account for what the last 6 months did would be in some kind of order and good (best) practices.
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February 23, 2024, 07:27:13 PM

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The "AlcoHoDL" !!  What about it?
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February 23, 2024, 07:50:19 PM
Last edit: February 24, 2024, 02:08:37 AM by Biodom
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3), JayJuanGee (1)

Check out this prediction (From Bob Loukas) video:

https://youtu.be/8ZM1WyHDiIs?t=875

TL;DR: He shows two main possibilities: either a sharp up to above 150K in 8-10 mo (he calls it a "left-translated" cycle) OR a "classical", but VERY strong cycle terminating at 400-700K or even higher by the end of 2025 (~18 mo more to run). We would know if it is a scenario #1 vs #2 based on whether we get to a proximity of ATH in 4-6 wk. If we do, then it is likely to be a shortened cycle and if not (stay where we are or even slightly decline in a chopping fashion), then it is likely to be a longer and stronger cycle (which is commonly referred to as a "supercycle").

Personally, I think that scenario #1 is more likely than scenario #2.
On the other hand, the majority of participants call for around 150K and almost no one talks about the "supercycle" as being likely.
The market rarely does what the majority expects.

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February 23, 2024, 08:01:18 PM


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February 23, 2024, 08:11:48 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

I don't post often, but have been part of this forum for 11 years.  I'm looking for someone to provide a counter argument to these statements, which is where I believe we are going in the next ten years:

The approval of the Bitcoin ETF should be an absolute game changer in the sense that:

1.  Most people buy ETF's for the long term; they are usually not looking for a quick profit buy/dump.  They are a crucial component to many 401k programs where as we all know -- funds get bought and held for the long term.  Obviously yes, at point of retirement, distributions are taken, but right now - there is much more buying going on than selling and this should continue slowly and steadily into the foreseeable future.

2. Couple this with the fact that around 88% of the total supply is already in circulation, how can we not continue to see a slow and steady growth in price as the scarcity issue gets larger and larger each day?

3.  Approval of the ETF albeit even while that arsehole Gensler poo-pooed it gives it even more legitimacy to the consumer that was previously wary.

4.  Exchange supply is extremely low right now, and the halving is right around the corner.  Our current price may already reflect all of the points I am making, but again, as time goes by and supply remains limited, where else can we go but up up up?

5.  I see $100,000 on the horizon but I see us reaching this slowly over the next 18 months.  

What a great time to be a proud believer in Bitcoin.
You seem to be bearish.  I cannot see how so much ongoing buying of BTC could result in such a slow movement towards a mere doubling of the current BTC price over 18 months....

It is seeming difficult to imagine the BTC price staying below $100k until mid year... but sure, anything can happen, it just seems that ongoing UPPity BTC price pressures are ongoing, continuous and persistent.. and so who is going to keep selling them the coins? Sure people are going to sell, but are there going to be as many sellers as buyers, and even in an ongoing way?  I have my doubts.

for me being aggressive should be focused on when you have a higher paying job and being Wimpy when you have no job to back you up in the journey. I believe someone who has a higher earning with aggressive investment can DCA big fund weekly, and take care of his other responsibilities and have a better emergency fund except the person is a careless or an extravagant spender otherwise there is no point of have a bigger fund and yet lack a better strategic plan. although sometimes peop with high earning are always tempted to spend alot I must confess. you know they say when your money is big your responsibility also increase along with your current financial status. it only takes self decipline to control the urge of excessive or extravagant spending.
So something I did about two years ago, was to add my nearly "agressive dca" amount to my emergency fund so that if in the future i had to tap the emergency funds for month to month living I could continue to dca into BTC. Just some food for thought with good planning you dont have to wimpy if you lose your job.
Part of the reason for the emergency fund is to be prepared to spend it in the currency in which your expenses or denominated.

Rich people likely have their emergency funds in their assets and it ends up being a drop in the bucket, but if you keep your emergency funds in bitcoin and the emergency happens when the BTC price is in a 50% or 85% or some other extreme correction, you need to be prepared for those kinds of possibilities, and sure you will get thorugh the emergency, and even some folks who might have 5x their fuck you entry level status, they likely could get by with a 85% drop in BTC prices because the emergencies that might be 1-6 months of their monthly expenses might ONLY end up taking less than 1 or 2% of their total BTC holdings... so yeah, maybe they don't want to do it, but they have so much cushion that it really does not matter very much.

Versus some poor schmuck who has ONLY been investing in BTC less than a whole cycle (and look in the mirror Greyhats with your mid-2021 forum registration date), he could end up getting fucked out of a whole year or two of his investment into BTC.. and yeah, maybe it will work and maybe it won't, but I would not be considering that you are getting more BTC because you are using your emergency fund to buy BTC, when you end up not really having emergency and you end up having to sell the thing that is most valuable, largely because you were greedy and gambling and even recommending others to do the same thing..
Hmmm did you read what I posted, I mean how would I be able to continue dca’ing into Btc if my emergency fund wasn’t denominated in fiat currency. At no point did I say my emergency fund was denominated in btc.

No need to take anything personally, and if you are doing something else, then so be it.

I am merely responding to the ideas presented, and if I did not get all of the actual facts straight it may not matter as much as the presentation of ideas... so if someone says that they are using their emergency fund to invest in BTC, then by definition that would be denominated in BTC.

An emergency fund should be completely liquid.

BTC is very liquid too... and cash is liquid, and yes various forms of holding assets can be very liquid, but there still needs to be caution in terms of how they are denominated in order to not suffer from something that is very volatile like bitcoin.

In other words, if we are buying bitcoin and getting exposure to it in various ways, some of those ways might be more liquid than others, while at the same time, whether we are referring to emergency fund, reserve fund or float, some of these can be matters of definition, and many people have their expenses in dollars or some other fiat (their local fiat presumptively).. and sure they could have various kinds of fiat that might serve as emergency funds, reserve and/or float...

So of course if we do not have any investments, then we can sometimes get sloppy with those kinds of practices of emergency funds.. but then if we start to invest, including investing in real volatile assets (as bitcoin has tended to be and likely will continue to be) then it becomes more important to establish better financial practices that involve an emergency fund, reserve funds and float... and sure there could also be a pecking order of various levels of liquidity.. some assets/currencies you can get within a day or two and then others might take a week or two and there might be some that take one or two months to get, and so there could be differing levels of liquidity and then also some of the assets would be more volatile than others.. and some would be considered better assets in terms of Gresham's law and sound money principles.

It is not likely that we are going to come to the same conclusions regarding how to treat these differing assets and/or currencies... in terms of which ones to spend first in case we are in a position in which we need cash.

Maybe in my case I’m overly aggressive(my enter the world date might preclude that or not), I have said this before but I adjust my emergency fund for inflation and have added to the monthly expense list a btc dca amount.

Of course, you are the one who is in the best position to both assess how much risk that you want to take, but if you start posting about it, then it could be ambiguous in regards to what you are doing, and I am not even proclaiming to be completely correct in terms of my response.. including my example about mindrust was a bit exaggerated because he choose to sell everything, and so he became overly greedy, and there could have been scenarios in which he might have sold 1-2 BTC rather than selling 10 BTC and then buying back 1 (so ultimately a sale of 9 BTC, but he bought back the 1 at around $6k, which would have had been quite a bit higher than his earlier sale).. and also at a certain point, it might not even be clear in regards to what the examples are showing... because each individual's circumstances are going to play out differently, and if you are describing and acknowledging risky practices, then that surely could be problematic.

I remember another forum member who said that he sold his house in mid-2016 and he put it all into bitcoin... so he was wrong for several months, but then it ended up working out that he was a genius, even though he was not being very financially responsible, and I am not even suggesting that some extra risk taking may well not end up paying off, but you probably should be expecting some push back in a forum like this if you are suggesting that it is good to do.. even though you are free to do it, and you may well end up being correct in terms of the outcome..

I don’t consider any assets I hold as part of the emergency fund, asset is not liquid in the sense of an emergency fund and like you mentioned market could be against you in your time of need.

My aggressiveness with emergency funds is more in the term of fund, its sitting at 18 months. I have had to use over my lifetime, always replenishing it. I haven’t ruled out increasing one or two more quarters but so far(from enter the world date) have only ever needed it for 8months.

It could be that you have everything covered.. . it sounds like it, but it did not sound like it in my first reading of the situation.. and yeah, maybe I was being selective in my reading or what I was emphasizing.

The hardest thing about an emergency fund is avoiding temptation to dip into ie through some form of relaxing your risk mgmt. I would be much much more Btc “richer” if I had of reduced the fund to 12 months back when I got into btc but I didn’t.

Personally I agree with emergency funds that are at least 6 months, and surely if you have more than you can be even more risky and/or aggressive..

Frequently normies have hardly any emergency fund, beyond maybe their monthly float that might be a few weeks, and those kinds of behaviors are sloppy for investors, but I try NOT to discourage anyone from investing into BTC, so frequently I will suggest that they can simultaneously invest in BTC and build their emergency fund to at least 3 months... so then once they get to 3 months then they are way better off than their usual practice, and they should try to get to 6 months before really being aggressive, but the matter is less urgent when they have at least 3 months.. and so yeah, the more erratic the income and/or the expenses of anyone, the more need for a larger emergency fund... so surely your emergency fund would qualify for being sufficient and more than sufficient when you go further out, but there does likely get to be a point that you want your emergency fund funds to be working.. somewhat... but yeah, there surely can be times in which the cash levels build up and I don't tend to have cash levels that are less than 6 months. .and I am trying to recall when the BTC prices were dropping below $20k in 2022, there was quite a bit of tightness in my own cash levels, and surely I am not sure if I want to get into analyzing that level of detail, but there might come to be points in which the price of something like BTC keeps dropping and we keep buying and it keeps dropping and dropping, and if we were to have some kind of an emergency at that point, then we have to figure out what we are going to do if we are running low on cash.

I claim that I have had few times when I personally felt that I needed to dip into my BTC fund at a time that was other than my own choosing.. and so I am not even claiming to not end up suffering from some of the dilemmas of the various balancing that goes on, but one thing for more established investors (and surely maybe you might be one of those, especially if you have other assets) is that we have a variety of investments that we could draw upon.. so even if we might get low on cash, we still have other funds to draw upon.. and the extent to which we have enough BTC could be a question of how to deal with matters too.. so like I already mentioned if you are still in BTC accumulation stage rather than in maintenance stage, then you would be more vulnerable to issues with your emergency fund as compared to someone who might be mostly in maintenance stage and who might even have some excess BTC, which largely I have rationalized that to be my own personal situation since about mid-to-late 2015.

I have maintained a very risk averse emergency fund mgmt style and you can see here I’m thinking about increasing the risk aversity. The question I’m pondering this year is do I increase it to 24months or do I use that capital to go into btc more.

Even though we are not dipping, there is a lot of UPpity pressures on the BTC price.

I am not even sure if you are asking the right question, at least from my perspective.

Sure, you are trying to attempt to play any kind of price wave that there is, yet you likely have already made assessments in regards to whether you have enough BTC or not.

I think on more than one occasion, you mentioned that you don't have enough BTC, but maybe you are having some concerns that you need to save some of that for buying on dips...  so that means that you reduce your regular DCA and you are just holding some of your extra reserves.

By the way, I would not label all of your extra funds as emergency funds, since maybe only part of your funds are emergency funds and others are reserves and there might be some float in there... but yeah the main two categories are emergency funds and reserves.

So if you are actually wanting to have some of your extra funds set aside for buying on dips, then you can preset that up.. and if you decide to go down to $30k (which would be just below the 200-WMA) or some other amount.. so for example, you could have a buy of $1k every $1,500 BTC drop starting at $49,500.. .. and so then that would end up dedicating around $12k for buys down to $30k, if such a thing were to occur.. and you could also have a regular DCA. .and if you decide to reduce it, and if the price goes up then maybe you would just continue to add to your buy on dip intervals, even though that might feel like chasing the price on the way up since you keep adding extra buy on dips.

So yeah the question about how much of a reserve and emergency fund surely seems to be the extent to which you feel that you have accumulated enough BTC.. and if you have not, then you have to continue to be somewhat aggressive to get to the point of having enough and even having more than enough.. since once you have more than enough then you will be in a position to structure sales... .you cannot structure sales if you either don't have enough and even if you are ONLY bordering on the idea of whether you have enough..

You should be clear in your own head (and your projections) that you have more than enough cornz, and if you have not reached that state, then from my point of view you should attempt to remain somewhat aggressive in buying until you get to that point.  (**this is not financial advice, even though it could be read that way.. hahahahaha. you are responsible for your own failures and don't come running/crying to me and saying that I told you to do it.... but if you are successful, I might like to take the credit...  Wink  Good luck.  Tongue )
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February 23, 2024, 08:15:15 PM
Merited by shahzadafzal (1)

My email correspondence with Satoshi in 2009-2011:
https://mmalmi.github.io/satoshi/

Martti Malmi
Bitcoin dev 2009-2011
A.K.A. Sirius



thanks for  this link


You know this one?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5484211.140
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February 23, 2024, 08:19:44 PM
Last edit: February 23, 2024, 09:16:26 PM by Paashaas
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Quote
Monster $1.3BN Bitcoin buy - 26,200 $BTC at $51K.  
Looks bullish, perhaps SWF, Jeff Bezos, Zuck,  or some other HNW individual. PS this is not an ETF wallet.
.


https://twitter.com/invest_answers/status/1761098459522957547?t=uIu9nE16Qj4PTj_9zRPWmA&s=19
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February 23, 2024, 09:04:43 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (1), Paashaas (1)

Still crabbing above $50,000.

This is good, sideways in a tight range, boring everybody is good.

Hopefully next leg up in a couple of weeks after consolidating and turning $50,000 into support.
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February 23, 2024, 10:22:49 PM
Merited by Gachapin (1)

Hmmm did you read what I posted, I mean how would I be able to continue dca’ing into Btc if my emergency fund wasn’t denominated in fiat currency. At no point did I say my emergency fund was denominated in btc. An emergency fund should be completely liquid. Maybe in my case I’m overly aggressive(my enter the world date might preclude that or not), I have said this before but I adjust my emergency fund for inflation and have added to the monthly expense list a btc dca amount. I don’t consider any assets I hold as part of the emergency fund, asset is not liquid in the sense of an emergency fund and like you mentioned market could be against you in your time of need.

My aggressiveness with emergency funds is more in the term of fund, its sitting at 18 months. I have had to use over my lifetime, always replenishing it. I haven’t ruled out increasing one or two more quarters but so far(from enter the world date) have only ever needed it for 8months.

The hardest thing about an emergency fund is avoiding temptation to dip into ie through some form of relaxing your risk mgmt. I would be much much more Btc “richer” if I had of reduced the fund to 12 months back when I got into btc but I didn’t. I have maintained a very risk averse emergency fund mgmt style and you can see here I’m thinking about increasing the risk aversity. The question I’m pondering this year is do I increase it to 24months or do I use that capital to go into btc more.
An emergency fund needs to be liquid indeed. But unless your emergency fund is peanuts, Bitcoin is the better emergency fund. However, if your funds are so low that 20-30% dips would put you at serious risk (meaning you have an emergency which you cannot pay for because the fiat value is now too low), then fiat is the better emergency fund.

I think most people would profit more from having a BTC emergency fund, as in the next few years we can expect a Bitcoin price of >$100k (and we might not visit 50k again.)

Anyone betting against Bitcoin at this point has not realized the reality of Bitcoins inevitable future.

Personally, I agree with being aggressive, and even overly aggressive in your investment into bitcoin, but people have to be careful in regards to how they treat their emergency funds, especially if their only two investments are bitcoin and cash.

Snipe
The "AlcoHoDL" !!  What about it?

When I mentioned forum member AlcoHoDL's perspective on ways to analyze BTC value, I was largely referring to some of his posts on the topic from last week and my interaction with him on the topic, which some of our interactions could be traced back through this post.

Check out this prediction (From Bob Loukas) video:
https://youtu.be/8ZM1WyHDiIs?t=875
TL;DR: He shows two main possibilities: either a sharp up to above 150K in 8-10 mo (he calls it a "left-translated" cycle) OR a "classical", but VERY strong cycle terminating at 400-700K or even higher by the end of 2025 (~18 mo more to run). We would know if it is scenario #1 vs #2 based on whether we get to a proximity of ATH in 4-6 wk. If we do, then it is likely to be a shortened cycle and if not (stay where we are or even slightly decline in a chopping fashion), then it is likely to be a longer and stronger cycle (which is commonly referred to as a "supercycle").

I will watch it, but I personally am not very likely to latch on to the term supercycle, even if BTC prices were to go up to $400k to $700k or even higher by the end of 2025 - because that is  no fucking supercycle.. that is merely a peak within the cycle, and yeah, if the BTC price does not correct more than 60%  and even stay in a bit of a lull for a year or two, then maybe I might be willing to concede that dumbass inaccurate term...

In other words, we are in cycles until we are not and don't be telling me about dumb ass theories until after they already have evidence to have had happened.. .until then, they don't have any real basis in fact and there remains little to no evidence that bitcoin's 4-year cycles are either disappearing or going to disappear, which another underlying presumption of the "supercycle" theories.  

I don't buy it. Call me a denialist of fantasy, if you must.

Personally, I think that scenario #1 is more likely than scenario #2.

I almost feel like taking the other side of that bet, but of course we would have to figure out our parameters, and it may well end up not being very bettable if we end up working out our details.. .and I don't even feel very strongly about it, so you might have to come up with a bit more absolutisms to make your siding with the shortened cycle theory to become bettable.

I also don't buy your claim that the April 2021 top was the real top rather than the November 2021 top, even though I will concede that the April 2021 top did have more blow off top characteristics than the November 2021 top that was both nominally higher and even arguably within inflation-adjusted terms higher than the April 2021 top (since we are showing around a 6.33% difference between the April 14, 2021 top and the November top of $69k).

On the other hand, the majority of participants call for around 150K and almost no one talks about the "supercycle" as being likely.
The market rarely does what the majority expects.

That $150k is pretty damned whimpy...
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February 23, 2024, 10:31:12 PM

When I mentioned forum member AlcoHoDL's perspective on ways to analyze BTC value, I was largely referring to some of his posts on the topic from last week and my interaction with him on the topic, which some of our interactions could be traced back through this post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg63680822#msg63680822).
Yes the link Said it all, my bad for taking AlcoHoDL's in another form probably I need a bat slapping  Cheesy
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February 23, 2024, 11:01:15 PM


Explanation
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February 24, 2024, 12:03:29 AM


Explanation
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