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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26365686 times)
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February 22, 2024, 12:39:17 AM

But I Think it would have been better for someone to invest higher when the value is low than waiting for the price to high before increasing the weekly DCA.
Frequently we do not have a choice, unless you are planning to gamble with your income.  So for example if a guy makes between $700 and $2k per month with a most commonly received amount of around $1,200 per month, and perhaps expenses that are mostly around $1k per month, then he only has right around $200 extra per month for his discretionary/disposable income.  

Sure it could be possible that he has other savings/investments/assets that he could draw upon, and he could also use debt to invest, but that likely would not be advisable absent some different factual circumstances, and sure of course, guys can do whatever they want, but frequently, they should be attempting to work with what they got in terms of prudence and management rather than gambling with funds that they might not have.

Don't get me wrong, I am a pretty fucking BIG advocate of front loading your BTC investment to some extent, so let's say the same person has around $2,400 that he can take from other areas and allocate that $2,400 to bitcoin investing, and if he has that amount, he could divide 1/3 ($800) for each of the three categories of lump sum, DCA and buying on dips... Or he could just put it all into BTC right away, which might put him in an uncomfortable position if the BTC price does not end up going up from the time of his buying.. and so there frequently can be trade-offs and balancing that is necessary, even with attempts to front-load your BTC investment.
I can not reply all your comment but In all your explanation I have come in conclusion that DCA should not be invested under pressure or aggression but investing what you can afford that will not affect your other plans.

Since the thread in which I was posting/responding was locked, I am going to post my response here, in this lovely thread, and I will also invite Pi-network314159 to look at my response in this thread and decide whether he is going to respond further.

I agree that the general idea of applying DCA to BTC accumulation would be to attempt to both invest in bitcoin on a regular basis and to customize your style/approach to your own financial circumstances and/or budget.

So within any DCA approach, you can choose the extent to which you want to be aggressive or whimpy, and whether you are aggressive or whimpy, you should still be able to manage other aspects of your budgeting which would be making sure that your expenses are below your income and/or managing your emergency funds, reserve funds and/or float.  The mere fact that you are aggressive does not mean that you would necessarily end up being sloppy in gterms of managing various aspects of your budget.

Secondly DCA is a matter of choice which means if I have a higher paying job I can be able to schedule how I can invest without it affecting me. For example somebody who receives $3000 per month can invest $200 per week and it wouldn't affect him while somebody who receives salary of $200 per month, might find it difficult to invest huge rather investing the least $10per week. that is to say that the investment should be don free mindedly and not a pressure or like a by force investing which will affect the person.

For sure, we should be assuming that individuals are completely responsible for whether and/or how they choose to employ their DCA strategy in terms of the frequency and/or amounts of their DCA contributions - including that they are responsible for their managing of automatic DCA services.   So it should almost go without saying that if they overdo it or under do it, they are responsible for their chosen action and/or inaction and also if their system devolves into gambling or if they are so whimpy in their investment choices that it hardly ends up making any difference, also some of the guys who choose to invest $5 to $10 per week and then immediately remove their BTC from exchanges, they are also responsible if there are times in which their UTXOs are not economical and/or spendable.

Thirdly the Table is based on absumbtion which means you did it yourself and anyone else can set his target or programs himself on how to DCA.

For reference, here is the referred to table - and I also posted some supplemental tables in this post.

Date   BTC_Price   Weekly$Amt   $Invst/Yr   RunTotal$Invst   BTC/Yr   TotalBTC   Total$Value
1/14/25   $59,999.40   $10.00   $520.00   $520.00   0.00900009   0.00900009   $540.00
1/14/26   $64,799.35   $12.00   $624.00   $1,144.00   0.01000010   0.01900019   $1,231.20
1/14/27   $69,983.30   $14.40   $748.80   $1,892.80   0.01111122   0.03011141   $2,107.30
1/15/28   $75,581.96   $17.28   $898.56   $2,791.36   0.01234580   0.04245721   $3,209.00
1/14/29   $81,628.52   $20.74   $1,078.27   $3,869.63   0.01371756   0.05617477   $4,585.46
1/14/30   $88,158.80   $24.88   $1,293.93   $5,163.56   0.01524173   0.07141650   $6,295.99
1/14/31   $95,211.51   $29.86   $1,552.71   $6,716.27   0.01693526   0.08835176   $8,412.10
1/15/32   $102,828.43   $35.83   $1,863.25   $8,579.52   0.01881695   0.10716871   $11,019.99
1/14/33   $111,054.70   $43.00   $2,235.90   $10,815.43   0.02090772   0.12807644   $14,223.49
1/14/34   $119,939.08   $51.60   $2,683.09   $13,498.51   0.02323081   0.15130724   $18,147.65
You can see that the first year or two don't really do anything, but the longer that you are in, the more that the value starts to compound upon itself, and even though over 10 years, we a bit more than a doubling in the price of BTC from $55k to $120k, we end up getting quite a bit of appreciation in our value since we would have had invested nearly $13.5k, yet the value of our holdings would be close to $18.2k.. and of course, we can play around with these kinds of numbers to try to figure out if there might be more aggressive or less aggressive investment scenarios but also we can make assessments if we consider the BTC price to go up a lot in value or a little bit in value, and we could have steady anticipated appreciation or maybe we might assume some years to be up and some to be down, yet we might ask ourselves for the purposes of projecting out future BTC price fluctuations does it help us to predict with a lot of granularity or might we be better served by keeping our projection more general and then just adjust it each year after it has played out?
In my understanding of this your table I see that the investment on DCA per week in the first year of the table was $10 per week compounding to $520 per year because there are 52 weeks per year with the value of btc at $59k per btc.

So, yes, essentially you are correct Pi-network314159.  The table projects investment amounts and it does not guarantee results, but could be used in any attempt to plan how your varying choices regarding how to invest into BTC might play out with the passage of time, and you can tweak the variables however you like.  It is meant to be an empowering tool that is meant to help the person who chooses to use such a tool, and people can use it to their benefit or they can use it to their detriment.  The tool does not become less valuable merely because I was the one that inputted the data and created the assumptions versus some other person could make better or worse assumptions, so the mere fact that such a tool is available does not assume that it will be used well or that my way of using it is not any good for me, whether I turn out to be correct in my assumptions or not, it could still be helpful to go through such exercises.. but it also might be a big waste of time for some folks who might be served better by using their skills and their thought process in other ways... Another thing is that it may or may not be helpful if the person using the tool is failing/refusing to attempt to match the knowledge and/or theory with putting some variation of the framework into action... When a person puts some of these ideas into practice the ideas may well end up informing the practice and the theory, so the whole process of putting the theory to action can help to better inform any person who is trying to improve himself and/or his circumstances through the use of these kinds of tools.

Which implies that the goal is to invest what you can afford according to your earning and also an investment which will not affect your accumulated btc. Because most people who invented on btc with aggression sell of and regretted later.

Whether someone ends up recking himself based on his having had been aggressive and/or overly aggressive may well have to do with degree rather than kind.. In other words, there are ways to be aggressive and still be responsible and not devolve into gambling and surely one of the ways to potentially be more aggressive might be with someone who creates an emergency fund, reserves and a float, and then once those funds are adequately established and built, then the person might choose to become more aggressive in his style of investing into bitcoin based on his having had established and built such funds.

Also btc is an investment that need focus and determination to achieve it because sometimes inpatient always affect us and makes us do unthinkable things.

For sure people get emotional about their BTC investment, but there are also ways that any of us should be able to set up our own investment style and practices into BTC so that we lessen the odds that we would become emotional about our BTC investment.  Let's say that we fail refuse to create an emergency fund, reserves and/or a float, and then we thereafter decide to invest all our spare money into BTC, and maybe we have not even considered that our cash inflow does not always meet our expenses, so if we act in those kinds of ways, then we are more likely increasing the chances that something in our BTC approach might blow up on us.. because in the kind of situation that I just described, the person may well be preparing for the BTC price to go up, but he may well be insufficiently prepared for the BTC price to either go down or sideways.  The mere fact that you might be investing into BTC aggressively does not necessarily mean that you fail/refuse to prepare for BTC prices to go in either price direction.

Meaning we should be courageous to make sure we take btc investment seriously because it is an investment that's is more profitable amongst other investment. and for someone to succeed in it you must set your mind at a long term investment not investing and hoping for results within the shortest period of time.

For sure, each of us should be striving to set up systems in which we do not get forced out of our BTC at a time that is anything other than our own complete choosing, and we should be capable of setting up systems to be able to increase our odds (or even assure) that we are not going to have to sell BTC at a time other than our own complete choosing.

Now everything is so easy for you to invest in Bitcoin while increasing the investment amount every month, the salary you get from work in real life can be allocated to several parts including investing $50 regularly every month.
People can now easily invest in Bitcoin with their limited income through DCA method.If a person accumulates $50 worth of bitcoins per month, his total bitcoins at the end of the year will be (12month×$50)$600.

If the same person can prolong his investment for a long time i.e. up to 10 years then after ten years the total amount of invested bitcoins will be (10year×$600)6000 dollars. If he continues to increase his investment by another $20 each year, the amount of bitcoins he has invested will grow by a much larger amount.
If you are investing in Bitcoin for the long term, it's not a wise strategy to hold on to your investment for 10 years without considering withdrawing when you make a profit. Since the price of Bitcoin has changed significantly over the past 5 or 10 years, it's better to withdraw your investment when you achieve your selling price or earn enough profit. Continuing to invest for such a long time is not recommended.

Some forum members.. referring to LesterD also seem to not understand that it may well not be necessary to sell your BTC (or at least not large portions of your BTC, and that selling your BTC might potentially feel like "profits," but then there may end up being realizations that too much BTC was sold too soon.. .and there are a lot of these examples in bitcoin's history in regards to guys who sold way too many BTC too soon, even though they felt profits at the time of their sale, and they might have even felt profits for several years before they realize that they would have had been way better off to either to have had not sold their BTC or perhaps to have had bought back whatever BTC that they had sold.

Another problem that sometimes comes with selling too much BTC too soon, such selling can put guys into the wrong kind of mindset in regards to their BTC, and they may well be better off to ride BTC's likely inevitable UP and DOWN waves, rather than putting their lil selfies into the wrong kind of a mindset in regards to their BTC holdings..
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February 22, 2024, 04:22:12 AM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)

your bets guys... will 50k hold over the next 3 days?

I'd say we'll dip below
Will 53k hold for the next 3 days?

I'd say it's iffy.
will we stay under 55,555 in the next 5 days.

I say it is a 50-50 chance  Wink

Interesting.

I am going to suggest that the odds for breaking something like a $55,555.55 UPPpity in the next 5 days are ONLY around 44.44444444444444444444% and the odds for not breaking it to be right around 55.55555555555555555%.  Call me a bear if you must.

Furthermore, I would suggest that the remaining 0.0000000000000000000000001% might need to be considered as a rounding error or perhaps some other unknown unknown..

[edited out]
The way I see it, we will either bounce off of 49.6k or 47.5k but we will be sub 50k probably for a short while.
It's ok, though. Bitcoin was pumping really hard so it needs a breather.

Poor lil fella's all tuckered out.

The real bear has poked out his lil head.

You are a real party poop!!!!!!!!

 Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry

[edited out]
no i say 44,444 in the next 4 days

40/40 chance

That's a nice variation, even though it is probably worthy of some kind of cruel treatment.. such as a batslappening.

Hey, and why didn't you go with 44.44444/44.44444 chances.. so that would ONLY leave you with a 11.11111111% difference, rather than a vacuum of 20%.  You are no scientist.

Proudhon?  Donkey?

Please help on this one to show vapourminer what's up..   

Maybe breath on him?, so that one vapor might be transferred to another vapour. #nohomo

and it is only enough to investigate other cryptocurrencies to realize that many of these have failed.

Many of "us" also known as "we" tend to refer to those thingies that you had mentioned above as "shitcoins," and perhaps it is not fair to suggest that any of them might have any chance of not failing, beyond potentially serving as test grounds for bitcoin... and sure test grounds in which founders are printing their own money.. but whatever, let them have their lil funzies, even though some innocent peeps (aka normies) are going to end up getting ground up a wee bit muchie through such a process of divergences... It may well be for their own good (builds character for when the come to experience our savior king daddy, aka my lil precious).
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Since the thread in which I was posting/responding was locked, I am going to post my response here, in this lovely thread, and I will also invite Pi-network314159 to look at my response in this thread and decide whether he is going to respond further.
it's my pleasure and honour being invited here, but after this reply I would like the conversation to continue in this post.

I agree that the general idea of applying DCA to BTC accumulation would be to attempt to both invest in bitcoin on a regular basis and to customize your style/approach to your own financial circumstances and/or budget.
that is correct, because to get acostomed to DCA one needs to invest on a regular basis. and that is basically the secret of getting a better style or approach, but the fact still remain that no matter how we get better style , sometimes investment strategy changes expecially when there is no steady income generation. may be when salary job is terminated, it will definitely affect the DCA strategy making it a little bit slower than expected or any other unforseen circumstances. but definitely there is always a way out maybe pausing the investment or reducing the investment plan by rearranging the statistical data analysis which have been programmed on DCA. I also see that the best way to achieve this DCA strategy is to have a  Private/self employed business, because that is the only way we can achieve our table lay down.

So within any DCA approach, you can choose the extent to which you want to be aggressive or whimpy, and whether you are aggressive or whimpy, you should still be able to manage other aspects of your budgeting which would be making sure that your expenses are below your income and/or managing your emergency funds, reserve funds and/or float.  The mere fact that you are aggressive does not mean that you would necessarily end up being sloppy in gterms of managing various aspects of your budget.
for me being aggressive should be focused on when you have a higher paying job and being Wimpy when you have no job to back you up in the journey. I believe someone who has a higher earning with aggressive investment can DCA big fund weekly, and take care of his other responsibilities and have a better emergency fund except the person is a careless or an extravagant spender otherwise there is no point of have a bigger fund and yet lack a better strategic plan. although sometimes peop with high earning are always tempted to spend alot I must confess. you know they say when your money is big your responsibility also increase along with your current financial status. it only takes self decipline to control the urge of excessive or extravagant spending.

The tool does not become less valuable merely because I was the one that inputted the data and created the assumptions versus some other person could make better or worse assumptions, so the mere fact that such a tool is available does not assume that it will be used well or that my way of using it is not any good for me, whether I turn out to be correct in my assumptions or not, it could still be helpful to go through such exercises.. but it also might be a big waste of time for some folks who might be served better by using their skills and their thought process in other ways... Another thing is that it may or may not be helpful if the person using the tool is failing/refusing to attempt to match the knowledge and/or theory with putting some variation of the framework into action... When a person puts some of these ideas into practice the ideas may well end up informing the practice and the theory, so the whole process of putting the theory to action can help to better inform any person who is trying to improve himself and/or his circumstances through the use of these kinds of tools.
you are also correct. setting the table by yourself doest to implies that it is not good for you, each individual has a way of doing theirs but definitely the Wimpy ones will alway find a way of criticising the table in other no to follow a rightful part but that doesn't change any fact because it is an individual race and doesn't require any body to like it or not. the reason many people put their blame on some unnecessary things is because of there inability to to program a table and follow it subsequently without failing. and when dey do it based on anytime any day or always wanting btc to dip, dey become tired and wanting to call it a quit and also planing to sell of the little generated btc.

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February 22, 2024, 09:11:45 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


So within any DCA approach, you can choose the extent to which you want to be aggressive or whimpy, and whether you are aggressive or whimpy, you should still be able to manage other aspects of your budgeting which would be making sure that your expenses are below your income and/or managing your emergency funds, reserve funds and/or float.  The mere fact that you are aggressive does not mean that you would necessarily end up being sloppy in gterms of managing various aspects of your budget.
for me being aggressive should be focused on when you have a higher paying job and being Wimpy when you have no job to back you up in the journey. I believe someone who has a higher earning with aggressive investment can DCA big fund weekly, and take care of his other responsibilities and have a better emergency fund except the person is a careless or an extravagant spender otherwise there is no point of have a bigger fund and yet lack a better strategic plan. although sometimes peop with high earning are always tempted to spend alot I must confess. you know they say when your money is big your responsibility also increase along with your current financial status. it only takes self decipline to control the urge of excessive or extravagant spending.

Isn't "aggressive" or "wimpy" meant in a situation-dependent way?
So if i have about $100 to spend each month through various ways of generating income and minimizing outflow, i would be "wimpy" to invest $1-$10 of it for DCAing Bitcoin vs. "aggressive" if investing $90-$100, right? I would also be "aggressive" if i, for example, cut my healthy but costly diet down to only eat potatoes and rice (or Ramen, to introduce a bit of religious humor...), right?
At least this is the way i understand this terminology: In relative, not absolute terms.
To be able to follow this discussion, do my assumptions, which are by no means complete, just simple examples, match?
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February 22, 2024, 12:51:03 PM

Observing 51,508@Stamp

In the meantime, on the ECB tower in Frankfurt someone wrote this masterpiece:


ETF approval for bitcoin – the naked emperor’s new clothes
Quote

ECB: we reiterate that the fair value of Bitcoin is still zero. For society, a renewed boom-bust cycle of Bitcoin is a dire perspective. And the collateral damage will be massive, including the environmental damage and the ultimate redistribution of wealth at the expense of the less sophisticated.


Embarrassing.
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February 22, 2024, 12:59:02 PM
Merited by WatChe (1)


no i say 44,444 in the next 4 days

40/40 chance

That's a nice variation, even though it is probably worthy of some kind of cruel treatment.. such as a batslappening.

Hey, and why didn't you go with 44.44444/44.44444 chances.. so that would ONLY leave you with a 11.11111111% difference, rather than a vacuum of 20%.  You are no scientist.

i ran out of fours Sad
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