Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's Daily Wall Observation recap
..
All Credit to ChartBuddy
Betting results:
greyhats won 729, now has 1829| JayJuanGee won 133, now has 1233| DirtyKeyboard won 100, now has 1200

Bet Examples:
WOGame,User Name,updown,up,1000
WOGame,username,evenodd,odd,300
WOGame,UserName,exact,69420,500

I am not sure if the thread might become too cluttered, since there is not a new thread for this.  Are you going to publish a table of the betters once a day?

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,up,100

No one is talking clutter yet, but I'm listening.  It could be an on topic thread in the Speculations board?  If there was to be a table, it could be in a #code box to limit the size.

Only one (bet_type, bet, wager, UTC date) combination per user per day, BTW.  As long as one thing is different, it's allowed.

[Greyhats]

ChartBuddy's Daily Wall Observation recap
..
All Credit to ChartBuddy
Betting results:
greyhats won 729, now has 1829| JayJuanGee won 133, now has 1233| DirtyKeyboard won 100, now has 1200

Bet Examples:
WOGame,User Name,updown,up,1000
WOGame,username,evenodd,odd,300
WOGame,UserName,exact,69420,500

I am not sure if the thread might become too cluttered, since there is not a new thread for this.  Are you going to publish a table of the betters once a day?

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,up,100

No one is talking clutter yet, but I'm listening.  It could be an on topic thread in the Speculations board?  If there was to be a table, it could be in a #code box to limit the size.

Only one (bet_type, bet) combination per user per day, BTW

That was fun, thanks for putting this together

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Now, back to Bitcoin.
Can you not see where it's goin'?
There's still time to join!

This is what I've been wanting to here!

I will start buying from now on, I did buy some bitcoin but I don't have enough capital but as little as I can buy I will keep buying as you said there is still time.

Well, if you are thinking about buying bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer, then even if you don't have a lot of capital, you are still going to be ahead of a lot of the scared cats and/or the folks who are failing/refusing to take actions.  So there likely are going to continue to be people who are just coming into bitcoin through the years, and to the extent that you are able, then you should be glad to have had spent time stacking sats prior to the around 99% of the world's population who have failed/refused to stack sats.. and they will likely have to get started later, perhaps after you have already been engaged in such stacking for several years prior to them.

So, yeah, in the end, each of us our responsible for our own levels of stacking and/or failure/refusal to stack in some cases.

Betting results:
greyhats won 729, now has 1829| JayJuanGee won 133, now has 1233| DirtyKeyboard won 100, now has 1200

Bet Examples:
WOGame,User Name,updown,up,1000
WOGame,username,evenodd,odd,300
WOGame,UserName,exact,69420,500

I am not sure if the thread might become too cluttered, since there is not a new thread for this.  Are you going to publish a table of the betters once a day?

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,up,100

No one is talking clutter yet, but I'm listening.  It could be an on topic thread in the Speculations board?  If there was to be a table, it could be in a #code box to limit the size.

Only one (bet_type, bet) combination per user per day, BTW

I suppose will see how it plays out, since one of the issues could be that if you talk about the various rules, then we might need a spot to reference back to (which usually would be OP).  So in this case, would there be one post that has all of the rules, so maybe like CB's explanation there could be a link to the rules, each time that you post the results that is contained in the post.. and so even if you add or subtract rules, then there would be a way to refer back to them.

I am again wondering how your script is going to differentiate earlier dates, so if I am citing myself, then does that mean that I am placing the same bet.. and maybe it would be good that we would have to put the date in there....

You said that we started with 1,000 WO merits, and if I won 133 then why would I have 1,233? rather than 1,133?   There seems to be something wrong with the maths.  

Below is my new bet (wish me luck... 50/50-ish.. and maybe with a slight tinge of possible favoritism in my own theory.. in the ballpark of 55/45).. and I feel like I should be placing the date inside of my bet to distinguish this bet from my prior one, since you are not going to stop folks from citing themselves or citing the bets of others... but what do I know?

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,up,100

By the way, I was kind of wondering about being able to bet on all three bet types at once. but you settled that unanswered matter.

[DirtyKeyboard]

I suppose will see how it plays out, since one of the issues could be that if you talk about the various rules, then we might need a spot to reference back to (which usually would be OP).  So in this case, would there be one post that has all of the rules, so maybe like CB's explanation there could be a link to the rules, each time that you post the results that is contained in the post.. and so even if you add or subtract rules, then there would be a way to refer back to them.

I am again wondering how your script is going to differentiate earlier dates, so if I am citing myself, then does that mean that I am placing the same bet.. and maybe it would be good that we would have to put the date in there....

You said that we started with 1,000 WO merits, and if I won 133 then why would I have 1,233? rather than 1,133?   There seems to be something wrong with the maths.  

Below is my new bet (wish me luck... 50/50-ish.. and maybe with a slight tinge of possible favoritism in my own theory.. in the ballpark of 55/45).. and I feel like I should be placing the date inside of my bet to distinguish this bet from my prior one, since you are not going to stop folks from citing themselves or citing the bets of others... but what do I know?

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,up,100

By the way, I was kind of wondering about being able to bet on all three bet types at once. but you settled that unanswered matter.

*removes face from palm*  I just realized the same thing about the dates.  I can't see how it works without the date.  
The extra 100 WOMerits came from the 100 bonus for placing a daily bet, which was supposed to be a way to get off of 0 WOMerits, but that makes 0 sense in hindsight.
What might make sense, is rebranding this baby and moving it over to the Pushups thread where one could earn up to 100 merits a day by doing 100 pushups.
Yes a rules post would make sense.  Make as many bets as you'd like, just not the same bet_type,bet,wager,date.  Even hedging your bets with opposite positions is allowed.  (I'm not sure if these payout ratio's I made up, even allow that sort of behaviour to be advantageous.)

WOGame,DirtyKeyboard,evenodd,even,100,2024-05-13, WOGame,DirtyKeyboard,updown,up,100,2024-05-13

Bettor's Guide

EDIT:  JayJuanGee, your bet snuck in before the new format applied.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

ETFs made bitcoin "boring" for now?
Is bitcoin now a 30-50% per year asset rather than 100-150%?
It's hardly a complaint, but I wonder if it really "changed".
I certainly do not feel that FOMO is out there, despite all the bullish fundamentals.

[xhomerx10]

The aurora just fired up in Maine - really bright and pulsating; it's a beautiful display! ~46N latitude.

You can watch it here live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiWG_5941YQ

Cloudy and raining where I am - I went for a drive to see if I could find clear skies but once again, foiled.


edit: firing up in Banff, Alberta as well but the skies haven't darkened yet.
 You can watch live here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJdpRO0BwA8


edit2: North Dakota skies coming to life (12:48)
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXtPKLJfYDc

clouds at 10pm 11 pm 12 am 2 am.

gave up .

I have to say clouds were thin i thought there could have been green backlight to them.

 It was cloudy in Maine as well but the clouds parted just in time to watch the aurora explode into colour. 



 You can't get the full experience from a 2 hour time-lapse but the really bright, dancing aurora display only lasted about 15 minutes.  Hopefully NEOC will post the full video on YouTube soon.

It's easy to be patient sitting in my recliner in front of my TV flipping through live video feeds..  As I said, I did go for a drive in hopes of finding clear skies but there were none here either and I ended up going to bed... well my wife came into the office and gave me the stink-eye at around 2am which pretty much forced my hand.

Nice images. Never saw it would like to get a glimpse of it tonight fingers crossed 🤞.

 Hey philipma1957, if you're still awake, I just saw the first flicker of life in the aurora over Maine - ~10:50 EST

 

 I figured the plasma from the 2nd last CME would be reaching earth around 11pm so while it seems to have faded after this shot, I think there should be a bit of a show tonight.  If you have a north view in an area free of ambient light, now would be a good time to take a peek.  I don't see anything where I am yet but the skies are clearer than last night so I'm going to drive north into a darker area and see what I can see.  Fingers crossed.  Good luck!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

I figured the plasma from the 2nd last CME would be reaching earth around 11pm so while it seems to have faded after this shot,...

Haha, my brain was trying to figure out what you were trying to say about the Chicago Mercantile exchange!~ Lol

And it translated shot to short.

Time to crash.

[JayJuanGee]

Make as many bets as you'd like, just not the same bet_type,bet,wager,date.  Even hedging your bets with opposite positions is allowed.

I am not sure if I understand this, because there could be rules that say that you cannot bet more than one of the categories, but if you are going to hedge, you might bet within the same category.  Sometimes I get confused about a potential dilutive effect of hedging, but it might not necessarily be a problem, but still you might want to have some limits such as 2 bets per category per user per day.. or some variation of that.

And if someone loses his whole bank of fictional WO merits (maybe the WO merits should be called something else - like bet merits or WO bet merits?  - WO BMs, for short.. hahahahahaha.. if you know what BM might mean?), then maybe there could be a way to earn them back.. but you would not want them to be too easily available.. so maybe it could be something quite conservative, like the activity points.. 1 per day as long as your balance is lower than 100 or something like that... which would mean that the most you could earn back would be 100.. but then that might cause participants not to fear going to zero since they could just earn them back 1 WO merit at a time per day.. .. I don't know.. I am not that attached to the earn back idea.

EDIT:  JayJuanGee, your bet snuck in before the new format applied.

No problem..  Here, I just added the date to my already "wise" projection of UP.

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,up,100.2024-05-13

ETFs made bitcoin "boring" for now?
Is bitcoin now a 30-50% per year asset rather than 100-150%?
It's hardly a complaint, but I wonder if it really "changed".
I certainly do not feel that FOMO is out there, despite all the bullish fundamentals.

Oh gawd, Biodom.. .    

Why do you have a tendency towards prematurity?  

I don't see how investment vehicles that cause more avenues to get into bitcoin is going to cause BTC prices to go up less  per year, especially when they are settled in BTC.. Now if they were settled in dollars, that would be another matter.  Yeah retail buyers have to use dollars to buy and sell BTC, but the ETFs have to back up those buys with actual BTC.. they cannot fake it..

Now if somehow the ETFs are faking the BTC that are backing up the shares that they are selling, then that might be a different story, but we do not have evidence of their faking the BTC perhaps beyond the delayed time in which they might have to make sure that they have the quantity of BTC that the shares reflect.. so sure there could be days involved with the making sure that they have the cornz that they claim to have, but it is not fractional reserve system, as far as I understand the situation to be.

Regarding your overall concern.  Did you realize that BTC prices do not just go straight up at all times?

Did you realize that if we use the March 13 ($73,794) top, then BTC prices went up nearly 5x since November 2022? and also nearly than 3x since October 2023?.. .

yeah, yeah, yeah, they corrected back down 23.5% to $56,500.. but even right now as I type this post, we are not at $56,500, we are at $61,111 which is around 8% higher than $56,500 and sure it is still around 17% lower than $73,794, but who cares?  You should already recognize and appreciate that these kinds of corrections are not unusual in bitcoinlandia, and surely we mayw well even consider BTC price actions to be quite ongoingly good since we have been having a lot of ongoing attacks on bitcoin self-custody and related hostilities, so the BTC price continues to do quite well in spite of these kinds of ongoing hostilities - which might cause some of us to hope that some of the attacks might cause some Streisand effects (but that might be too wishful in my own thinking?).

[xhomerx10]

Well, it looks like the latest CME arrival was only a glancing blow.   I would have been skunked here anyway - the clouds rolled in from the west and as I drove northward, it began to rain.  The aurora is very faint now in Maine @ ~46°N latitude, it's also faint in North Dakota at ~49°N latitude so I doubt even with clear, dark skies anything would have been visible here.  Every 1° of latitude represents about 69 miles (about 111 km).   Ah well, the theoretical solar maximum is still a year away so maybe there'll be another opportunity to see some auroras this far south in the coming months.  If those sun spots responsible for the recent CMEs persist, they should roll around the other side of the sun again in a couple of weeks.

[xhomerx10]

I figured the plasma from the 2nd last CME would be reaching earth around 11pm so while it seems to have faded after this shot,...

Haha, my brain was trying to figure out what you were trying to say about the Chicago Mercantile exchange!~ Lol

And it translated shot to short.

Time to crash.

 Ha!  I don't think I'll ever bring up the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in polite conversation 
I should probably crash as well; I've had too many late nights in a row and I need all the beauty rest I can get.  Sure as heck when my head hits the pillow, the skies will clear and the aurora will spark back up with a vengeance.  C'est la vie.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

ChartBuddy gambling game, where you can bet on "higher" or "lower" within the 1st 5 mins of a ChartBuddy post.

That sounds fun Put me down for "higher" for the rest of eternity

you already beat the game 

Does anyone here have historic Bitcoin price data? I can find daily data, but hourly or even every 5 minutes would be better. The only hourly data I've seen in the past wasn't available for free.
The reason I'm asking: Your statement made me wonder if it's true. It always feels like Bitcoin drops more ofthen than it goes up, but when it goes up, it's usually faster than it dropped. So I wonder if it would drop say 60% of the time, and go up for 40%. Or maybe I'm wrong, and in that case it would be nice to know for sure.

I haven't thought about that, you are right. the dropping goes on for longer than the upwards movement.
you would win in the long run with betting on down rather than up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@TheBitcoinTherapist
Everyone is calling you a moron right now for buying Bitcoin at $60K.

At $100K they’ll tell you to sell everything.

At $250K they’ll say you were lucky.

At $500K they’ll tell you it wasn’t fair.

At $1M they’ll ask if you want fries with that.
https://x.com/thebtctherapist/status/1789812702531010945


@ronin21btc
END THE FED

BUY #BITCOIN 

https://x.com/ronin21btc/status/1789766064957501631


@mistercrypto
It's over... #Bitcoin 

https://x.com/misterrcrypto/status/1789737306481471834?s=46

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com