Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

Leafs managed to pull off a win

Don't get your hopes up.

The Babe Ruth Curse in Boston lasted 87 years. The Billy Goat Curse in Chicago lasted 71 years.

The Curse of Harold Ballard is only 57 years old.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[shahzadafzal]

[Biodom]

^ trying to pooh-pooh Mr. Market?

We should admit that going down 8% after halving (and 19.5% since the ATH a month or so before) is not what most of us expected.

Not a biggie, yet, of course, but it is enticing to think about why this is happening.
I don't buy into P. Brandt 25% probability that bitcoin has already exhausted it's bull phase as it would be quite pathetic of a bull, but it seems that some macro factors are playing into this: maybe persistent inflation and hence no easing or maybe stagflation (albeit it is ridiculous to expect stagflation when we just started the AI era). I am reading that % of people not paying their bills is increasing in parallel with the credit card debt (1.2 tril in US). maybe the large %% of the population is simply broke (even with almost full employment)

Who knows, maybe we are on a verge of a recession and bitcoin is able to "sniff it out" earlier than other, often manipulated market indicators?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/bosera-hashkey-bitcoin-and-ether-spot-etfs-officially-launch-on-hkex-with-two-way-investment-flexibility-855954933.html

Here are the most important parts:

One of the key features of these ETFs is that they introduce an 'in-kind' subscription mechanism, which allows investors to directly subscribe for ETF shares using Bitcoin and Ethereum. Investors can purchase the ETFs with Bitcoin or Ethereum and subsequently sell them for cash, or vice versa, enabling seamless two-way investment flexibility.

and

Importantly, non-Hong Kong nationals can also subscribe for or purchase units in the ETFs if they meet local regulatory requirements, such as passing customer due diligence.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[In the silence]

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/bosera-hashkey-bitcoin-and-ether-spot-etfs-officially-launch-on-hkex-with-two-way-investment-flexibility-855954933.html

Here are the most important parts:

One of the key features of these ETFs is that they introduce an 'in-kind' subscription mechanism, which allows investors to directly subscribe for ETF shares using Bitcoin and Ethereum. Investors can purchase the ETFs with Bitcoin or Ethereum and subsequently sell them for cash, or vice versa, enabling seamless two-way investment flexibility.

and

Importantly, non-Hong Kong nationals can also subscribe for or purchase units in the ETFs if they meet local regulatory requirements, such as passing customer due diligence.

Good read.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

Its a holiday in belgium and I'm up early...

Coffee in hand with a not good price, but the coffee still good though.

Mentally preparing for an exhausting work out in an hour from now.

20 rounds of

10 burpee 150m run
10 squats 150m run
10 push ups 150m run
10 sit ups 150m run

this gonna take a long time

Will do my best in order BTC doing the same.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[shahzadafzal]

Its a holiday in belgium and I'm up early...

Coffee in hand with a not good price, but the coffee still good though.

Mentally preparing for an exhausting work out in an hour from now.

20 rounds of

10 burpee 150m run
10 squats 150m run
10 push ups 150m run
10 sit ups 150m run

this gonna take a long time

Will do my best in order BTC doing the same.

20 rounds? Are you Superman? That's a long routine, man... more than 2 hours?

10 Burpees: 1 minute       Run: 1 minute
10 Squats: 40 seconds     Run: 1 minute
10 Push-Ups: 40 seconds  Run: 1 minute
10 Sit-Ups: 40 seconds     Run: 1 minute

That totals about ~7 minutes per round. Doing 20 rounds means roughly 140 minutes, which is 2 hours and 20 minutes. Wow!!!

Honestly, I'm doing something similar, but I max out at 40 minutes to 1 hour—after that, I'm totally wiped out.

[somac.]

^ trying to pooh-pooh Mr. Market?

We should admit that going down 8% after halving (and 19.5% since the ATH a month or so before) is not what most of us expected.

Not a biggie, yet, of course, but it is enticing to think about why this is happening.
I don't buy into P. Brandt 25% probability that bitcoin has already exhausted it's bull phase as it would be quite pathetic of a bull, but it seems that some macro factors are playing into this: maybe persistent inflation and hence no easing or maybe stagflation (albeit it is ridiculous to expect stagflation when we just started the AI era). I am reading that % of people not paying their bills is increasing in parallel with the credit card debt (1.2 tril in US). maybe the large %% of the population is simply broke (even with almost full employment)

Who knows, maybe we are on a verge of a recession and bitcoin is able to "sniff it out" earlier than other, often manipulated market indicators?

Macro factors are the most obvious reason I reckon. From what I read liquidity has tightened, bank failures (albeit small) are starting to pop up, and the recent small increase in inflation is probably due more to the oil price  than any actual demand. Increasing price in oil may be short term inflationary but long term it is deflationary and we may be feeling that now with some of the spending measures not looking too good. Powell's next statement should be an interesting on, I expect it to be dovish.

[LoyceV]

Its a holiday in belgium and I'm up early...

Same in the Netherlands. Spending time with the kids, while slowly quickly getting poorer. Then again, judging by the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, this isn't unexpected around a halving. I still have high hopes for the next 6-18 months.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cygan]

its really over...

[somac.]

its really over...

Yep, we poor again.

[OgNasty]

The dips just keep dipping. I think we’re closer to the bottom than the top here. Another 10% maybe but then I’ll think we’ll stabilize in preparation for the next move up. I don’t think we’ve seen this year’s high yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see new highs until the fourth quarter. This summer is going to test the holders.

[MERlT]

The dips just keep dipping. I think we’re closer to the bottom than the top here. Another 10% maybe but then I’ll think we’ll stabilize in preparation for the next move up. I don’t think we’ve seen this year’s high yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see new highs until the fourth quarter. This summer is going to test the holders.

We're going down but definitely moving up, could be 20% minus 10% followed by a quartered opening top. However! market forces push a negative step, quickly trending below third quarter increments. But we're still on course for 25 yearly moving averages that, could follow trends that flow in the opposite direction. In summary, moving down could trigger upward forces that may cause a tailwind if sentiment does not mirror outward
pressures in light of the the ETF which could interrupt the post halving prediction which may or may not go up and then down but could correct in a positive direction. Fourth quarter could follow third quarter output if second quarter does not show the same indication as the previous first quarter of the previous cycle.
 

[joker_josue]

its really over...

Out of curiosity, is your graph personal, or is it something public?