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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26384307 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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April 29, 2024, 05:48:41 AM

So last few trading days for the ETF are mostly outflows. Blackrock still not having any inflows at all.
Why the sudden stop in inflows to Blackrock?

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April 29, 2024, 02:11:30 PM

It’s a little weird but the negativity I feel in the market right now is what I needed to finally flip to being irrationally bullish. I think this is a great time to buy and plenty of people will sell to raise cash now with the current global economy, but those who stick with it and wait another year will be handsomely rewarded for their faith.
To be frank, since I became this knowledgeable about bitcoin I always love it when things like this happens since alot will sell and bitcoin price dip and I can get more when I buy from it while then these people will actually think they made the right choice until they miss the bull.
ps this is me in 2022 after the FTX crash  Cry
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April 29, 2024, 02:19:12 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

No Monday morning rise yet I see. In fact just the opposite. Ugh.

I need to liquidate $20kCAD and have the money in my bank (ugh) account today.

Tomorrow's the tax filing deadline and I wanted to make a payment on last year's arrears before filing.

A $2k dip per coin since yesterday is not what I hoped to see.

Oh well. Better luck next month... I hope.

Edit: Where's Buddy?
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April 29, 2024, 02:24:37 PM

So last few trading days for the ETF are mostly outflows. Blackrock still not having any inflows at all.
Why the sudden stop in inflows to Blackrock?



How is it known that there are no inflows? The table only shows the total sum of inflows and outflows. And if the inflows < outflows, then the numbers are red. 
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April 29, 2024, 03:28:02 PM
Last edit: April 29, 2024, 07:41:44 PM by Biodom
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

It turned out (so far) that bitcoin did not care too much about "normies" thinking about it as a stock.
For normies, momentum is the only thesis to invest in btc ETF. I don't believe in the 'store of value' thesis for bitcoin for regular investors. Momentum...and that's it.
Maybe btc is losing an 'edge' because of all those ETF "instruments"?
I don't know and, imho, 2X-3X (from 73K) is still within a realm of possibilities (for the next 12-18 mo).
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April 29, 2024, 05:31:35 PM

I had a full weekend of work, but I'm still keeping tabs on you guys Wink
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April 29, 2024, 06:24:04 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3)

So last few trading days for the ETF are mostly outflows. Blackrock still not having any inflows at all.
Why the sudden stop in inflows to Blackrock?



How is it known that there are no inflows? The table only shows the total sum of inflows and outflows. And if the inflows < outflows, then the numbers are red. 

Table is not inflows, but creation/redemption of shares, that should closely match inflows/outflows.
Unit had a couple of days with no inflows (zeroes on the table), but at least avoided outflows.
The bad sign is that the “new nine” had a cumulate outflows (redemption) excluding Grayscale.
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April 29, 2024, 06:59:44 PM

It turned out (so far) that bitcoin did not care too much about "normies" thinking about it as a stock.
For normies, momentum is the only thesis to invest in btc ETF. I don't believe in the 'store of value' thesis for bitcoin for regular investors. Momentum...and that's it.
Maybe btc is losing an 'edge' becuase of all those ETF "instruments"?
I don't know and , imho, 2X-3X (from 73K) is still within a realm of possibilities (for the next 12-18 mo).

We have some failure to go up and some stalling, perhaps consolidation within noman's land, but we still have not broken below $60k.. so why all the doomy gloomy?

yeah, we have some ongoing attacks on self-custody.. and are they going to keep ramping up such self-custody attacks? 

Even some of the BIG players would prefer for their ETFs to go up rather than down.. so if the powers that be are attacking the thing that actually makes bitcoin valuable (which is self-custody), then they can ONLY make money from the fees, and sure maybe that is all that they want, but I also consider that they likely realize that killing bitcoin would not be to their own interest, and so how do they just "kind of" kill it without really killing it?

A lot of precarious positions in this debt-burdened and contradictory unsustainable fiat world that also wants to sink our lil precious rescue boats.
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April 29, 2024, 07:18:14 PM
Last edit: April 30, 2024, 03:31:35 AM by JimboToronto

Where is everybody?

Even Chartbuddy is AWOL. Did Buddy get food poisoning or catch a virus and die.

Maybe it's Macaffee's fault. Or his ghost. Damn viruses.
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April 29, 2024, 08:11:48 PM
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@saylor
In April, @MicroStrategy acquired an additional 122 BTC for $7.8 million and now holds 214,400 BTC. Please join us at 5pm ET as we discuss our Q1 2024 financial results and answer questions about the outlook for #BusinessIntelligence and #Bitcoin . $MSTR

https://x.com/saylor/status/1785037831175630938
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April 29, 2024, 08:13:57 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3)

Observing 63,085@stamp.

Price is already dumping, now you know why.



Edit: @LFC_Bitcoin, get a life!
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April 29, 2024, 08:18:20 PM

Hehe, I beat you for once brother.
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April 29, 2024, 08:24:09 PM

We're (referring to self-storing bitcoiners) all safe.  The righteous US Government officials are not going to unfairly target anyone.. ONLY targeting dee real and true wrong-doing criminals.

i feel safer already

For now this is the narrative of the moment... I don't know how long it will stay like this... Will they start persecuting people? force them to acquire only via ETF?

There is no way to ban BTC, but in the future it may become increasingly difficult to acquire real bitcoins. It may seem like an exaggeration, but I don't doubt anything.
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April 29, 2024, 09:05:16 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2), ibminer (2), Biodom (1)

Martyparty
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Breaking: Chinese #Bitcoin  and #Ethereum  ETFs launch 9:30am tomorrow - press conference summary is out - here is the translation.👀☝️

Highlights:

- Expected larger first day than USA
- In kind redemptions and subscriptions
- Wallet to wallet transfers
- Mainland Chinese investors are not allowed to invest in Hong Kong’s cryptocurrency spot ETFs
- Hong Kong issuers DO NOT CARE if US Sec declares Ethereum a security.

In this press briefing, Zhu Haokang, head of digital asset management and family wealth of China Asset Management (Hong Kong), and Wayne Huang, head of OSL ETF and custody business, answered the following questions.

Q: What does China Asset Management (Hong Kong) think about the scale of capital inflows on the first day of listing of Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs tomorrow?

Zhu Haokang : I am very confident that the trading scale of the Hong Kong virtual asset spot ETF on the first day of listing can exceed the trading scale of the first day in the United States. The issuance scale of the 10 US Bitcoin spot ETF issuers on the first day of January 10 this year was 125 million. US dollar, Hong Kong will exceed US$125 million, and China is confident to become the ETF issuer with the largest trading volume on the first day among the three issuers. The details can be revealed to everyone at 9:30 tomorrow morning.

Wayne Huang : There will be an announcement from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at 9:30 tomorrow morning, but OSL has indeed completed its first day of raising funds on OSL today with two funds (including ChinaAMC and another fund that cooperates with us). Judging from the numbers, the transactions are indeed far greater than the capital inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF on its first day of trading.

Q: What is the difference between Spot China Bitcoin ETF and Spot China Ethereum ETF and other ETFs?

Zhu Haokang : The first difference is that compared with the US spot Bitcoin ETF, we have spot and physical subscriptions and redemptions, which the US spot Bitcoin ETF does not have.

In addition, there are two differences between ChinaAMC's products and the other two: ChinaAMC's Hong Kong spot ETF is the only ETF with Hong Kong dollar, US dollar and RMB counters. The second is that in addition to listed shares, we have unlisted shares. These two points are not available in the other two companies.

Q: In addition to Hong Kong, where else have investors participated in the Hong Kong virtual asset spot ETF?

Zhu Haokang : Thanks to the physical subscription method, first of all, investors include Bitcoin mines, etc. They can use their Bitcoin holdings to directly purchase virtual asset spot ETFs in Hong Kong. Secondly, in countries and regions that have not yet issued ETFs outside of Hong Kong, such as Singapore and the Middle East, we have also come into contact with a large number of investors who are extremely interested. In addition, although the current spot Bitcoin ETF market in the United States is very large, compared with the United States, Hong Kong uses cash and physical subscriptions and is open for trading during Asian trading hours, which will still attract many American investors. Finally, several family offices in Asia and overseas are also very interested in spot crypto ETFs.

Q: Is there currently only one securities firm, Victory Securities, qualified to conduct relevant transactions in physical subscriptions?

Wayne Huang : Not only Victory Securities can do physical subscription, but also Huaying Securities with the support of OSL. Currently, there are three securities firms that can do physical subscription, and there will be more follow-up later. Therefore, after the ETF is listed tomorrow, many brokers will follow up, and it is possible that more brokers will participate in the entire ecosystem of virtual asset ETFs in May.

Q: What are the specific operations for physical purchase?

Wayne Huang : Physical subscription is a pioneering initiative for Hong Kong ETFs that is different from US ETFs. First, the brokerage firm needs to upgrade its No. 1 license to be able to handle virtual asset transactions. Investors can transfer their coins to OSL through this brokerage firm, and then finally transfer their equity back to OSL. Transfer it to the fund's custody account and complete the entire process of physical subscription.

Q: What is OSL’s anti-money laundering process in physical subscription? Is it acceptable for the counterparty to be the wallet of the other exchange?

Wayne Huang : First, investors must connect to OSL through a brokerage firm to open an account. We will perform a whitelist verification on the wallet that is about to transfer money to prove that this wallet is held and controlled by the investor. Second, we will verify the investment. The user's private wallet must be screened to see if there are any suspicious transactions in the wallet's past dozens of transactions on the chain. Only wallets that have passed the whitelist verification can allow him to transfer money.

Can a wallet be the wallet of another exchange? In theory, this can be done. If the anti-money laundering rules of the other exchange are consistent with the OSL rules, we can accept the other party's transfer of coins, but we need the other exchange to provide certain customer information.

Q: Can Hong Kong’s cryptocurrency spot ETFs be open to mainland investors? Or will there be a possibility of opening it up to mainland investors in the future?

Zhu Haokang : Currently, mainland Chinese investors are not allowed to invest in Hong Kong’s cryptocurrency spot ETFs. Hong Kong’s qualified investors, institutional investors, retail investors, and international investors that meet the regulations can all invest in cryptocurrency spot ETFs. For details, you can consult brokers and sales channels, and continue to pay attention to whether there are corresponding regulatory adjustments or the introduction of a specific regulatory framework in the future.

Q: Hong Kong’s Ethereum spot ETF is the first in the world, but if the United States finally determines that “Ethereum” is a security, will it affect Hong Kong’s Ethereum spot ETF?

Wayne Huang : Probably not, because whether the United States defines Ethereum as a security does not affect the independent decision-making of the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission. The Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission has its own set of procedures for determining whether a certain virtual asset is a security and whether it can be opened to retail traders. It will not be affected by different opinions between various departments in the United States, or ultimately their own unilateral definition. to Hong Kong.

I also want to emphasize why Hong Kong can be the first in the world to launch an Ethereum spot ETF, rather than the United States? The regulation of cryptocurrency in the United States has multiple departments speaking out at the same time, or trying to regulate it. Who should supervise cryptocurrencies in Hong Kong has long been decided, namely the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has given some very clear regulatory frameworks. Hong Kong has already had a clear definition of Ethereum. Ethereum It is not a security, but the first non-securities virtual asset to be included in Hong Kong supervision together with Bitcoin, and it is one of the two targets that can be provided to retail investors.

Q: Will Hong Kong launch other virtual asset ETFs?

Wayne Huang : Only Bitcoin and Ethereum for now. We have repeatedly discussed with the China Securities Regulatory Commission the process of how to list coins in compliance transactions in Hong Kong. Let me share briefly. First, we need the issuer of the virtual asset or ourselves to find a legal opinion stating whether the coin is a security or a non-security. And turn the legal opinion and our due diligence on the currency into a detailed research report and submit it to the China Securities Regulatory Commission. After final approval by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, it will be first opened to professional investors. When a certain level of liquidity is reached, it will be included. After a period of time within the scope of an index, we can apply to the China Securities Regulatory Commission to upgrade the currency to be available for retail trading.

https://s.foresightnews.pro/article/detail/59032


https://x.com/martypartymusic/status/1784964165557420075

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April 29, 2024, 11:27:29 PM

Martyparty
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Breaking: Chinese #Bitcoin  and #Ethereum  ETFs launch 9:30am tomorrow - press conference summary is out - here is the translation.👀☝️

Highlights:

- Expected larger first day than USA
- In kind redemptions and subscriptions
- Wallet to wallet transfers
- Mainland Chinese investors are not allowed to invest in Hong Kong’s cryptocurrency spot ETFs
- Hong Kong issuers DO NOT CARE if US Sec declares Ethereum a security.

In this press briefing, Zhu Haokang, head of digital asset management and family wealth of China Asset Management (Hong Kong), and Wayne Huang, head of OSL ETF and custody business, answered the following questions.

Q: What does China Asset Management (Hong Kong) think about the scale of capital inflows on the first day of listing of Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs tomorrow?

Zhu Haokang : I am very confident that the trading scale of the Hong Kong virtual asset spot ETF on the first day of listing can exceed the trading scale of the first day in the United States. The issuance scale of the 10 US Bitcoin spot ETF issuers on the first day of January 10 this year was 125 million. US dollar, Hong Kong will exceed US$125 million, and China is confident to become the ETF issuer with the largest trading volume on the first day among the three issuers. The details can be revealed to everyone at 9:30 tomorrow morning.

Wayne Huang : There will be an announcement from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at 9:30 tomorrow morning, but OSL has indeed completed its first day of raising funds on OSL today with two funds (including ChinaAMC and another fund that cooperates with us). Judging from the numbers, the transactions are indeed far greater than the capital inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF on its first day of trading.

Q: What is the difference between Spot China Bitcoin ETF and Spot China Ethereum ETF and other ETFs?

Zhu Haokang : The first difference is that compared with the US spot Bitcoin ETF, we have spot and physical subscriptions and redemptions, which the US spot Bitcoin ETF does not have.

In addition, there are two differences between ChinaAMC's products and the other two: ChinaAMC's Hong Kong spot ETF is the only ETF with Hong Kong dollar, US dollar and RMB counters. The second is that in addition to listed shares, we have unlisted shares. These two points are not available in the other two companies.

Q: In addition to Hong Kong, where else have investors participated in the Hong Kong virtual asset spot ETF?

Zhu Haokang : Thanks to the physical subscription method, first of all, investors include Bitcoin mines, etc. They can use their Bitcoin holdings to directly purchase virtual asset spot ETFs in Hong Kong. Secondly, in countries and regions that have not yet issued ETFs outside of Hong Kong, such as Singapore and the Middle East, we have also come into contact with a large number of investors who are extremely interested. In addition, although the current spot Bitcoin ETF market in the United States is very large, compared with the United States, Hong Kong uses cash and physical subscriptions and is open for trading during Asian trading hours, which will still attract many American investors. Finally, several family offices in Asia and overseas are also very interested in spot crypto ETFs.

Q: Is there currently only one securities firm, Victory Securities, qualified to conduct relevant transactions in physical subscriptions?

Wayne Huang : Not only Victory Securities can do physical subscription, but also Huaying Securities with the support of OSL. Currently, there are three securities firms that can do physical subscription, and there will be more follow-up later. Therefore, after the ETF is listed tomorrow, many brokers will follow up, and it is possible that more brokers will participate in the entire ecosystem of virtual asset ETFs in May.

Q: What are the specific operations for physical purchase?

Wayne Huang : Physical subscription is a pioneering initiative for Hong Kong ETFs that is different from US ETFs. First, the brokerage firm needs to upgrade its No. 1 license to be able to handle virtual asset transactions. Investors can transfer their coins to OSL through this brokerage firm, and then finally transfer their equity back to OSL. Transfer it to the fund's custody account and complete the entire process of physical subscription.

Q: What is OSL’s anti-money laundering process in physical subscription? Is it acceptable for the counterparty to be the wallet of the other exchange?

Wayne Huang : First, investors must connect to OSL through a brokerage firm to open an account. We will perform a whitelist verification on the wallet that is about to transfer money to prove that this wallet is held and controlled by the investor. Second, we will verify the investment. The user's private wallet must be screened to see if there are any suspicious transactions in the wallet's past dozens of transactions on the chain. Only wallets that have passed the whitelist verification can allow him to transfer money.

Can a wallet be the wallet of another exchange? In theory, this can be done. If the anti-money laundering rules of the other exchange are consistent with the OSL rules, we can accept the other party's transfer of coins, but we need the other exchange to provide certain customer information.



Brilliant...does it mean that using my btc I can "subscribe" to this ETF? It sounds that the answer is a cautious "yes".
Why? Because it can facilitate borrowing against ETF value and reduces the need to sell anything.
SEC with it's "cash only" creations will look inferior...maybe this explains the lack of further inflows into the Blackrock's fund.
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April 30, 2024, 12:43:49 AM

65K in one hour  Cool
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April 30, 2024, 01:11:35 AM

Hehe, I beat you for once brother.

No betting I can say just HODLE BTC and wait so result you are a Billionaire.  Cheesy
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April 30, 2024, 01:16:59 AM

Where is everybody?

Even Chartbuddy is AWOL. Did Buddy get food poisoning or or catch a virus and die.

Maybe it's Macaffee's fault. Or his ghost. Damn viruses.

 I was abnormally busy today for some reason:



 
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April 30, 2024, 01:24:29 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

Hong Kong Market opens in:



 Bitcoin is so exciting.
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April 30, 2024, 02:26:02 AM
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"Bitcoin pyramid" according to James from investanswers (he also references some research team):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kqYcGBARZM

Place yourself in the pyramid  Grin
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