Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[keewee]

i'm pretty sure fonzie is the impostor

not to worry, the train is leaving, he's being left behind.

Crossed my mind too.   Don't want to ignore 'adamstgBit' though!

Won't Blitz sort it, or is he deep in conference with Theymos just now....   

You noticed it's spelt differently? So not strictly stolen... adamsgtBit vs adamstgBit

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[kurious]

i'm pretty sure fonzie is the impostor

not to worry, the train is leaving, he's being left behind.

Crossed my mind too.   Don't want to ignore 'adamstgBit' though!

Won't Blitz sort it, or is he deep in conference with Theymos just now....   

You noticed it's spelt differently? So not strictly stolen... adamsgtBit vs adamstgBit

Oh good - I can ignore him then - thanks.  Still think it sucks, though.

You got you invite for Gox's funeral yet?  I can't find my black tie....  Shame.

[JorgeStolfi]

Noblesse me oblige to report on the (in)accuracy of the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for today:

Prediciton posted on 2014-02-13 23:07 UTC
Prediction valid for 2014-02-14 19:00--19:59 UTC
Huobi predicted price: 3750 plus or minus 30 CNY (3720  -- 3780)
Huobi actual price (L--H): 3991--4016 CNY
Error (difference between interval centers): 250 CNY

The prediction is the blue rectangle at the far right in the chart below, under the price bars.  The yellow dots are the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.


Obviously someone bought several thousand coins around that time, well over the "right" price, with the sole purpose of creating a freak spike on the charts and falsify my prediction. 

Seriously, today Huobi's volume (over 200,000 BTC) was a historical record among all exchanges, and the price went through a crash and a rally, with no obvious reason for either of them.  Huobi's clients kept trading furiously until past 2:00 am local time, and went to bed in the middle of a spike that had apparently reached its top.  Today's Slumber Point is way out of line with the previous three which had a clear descending trend.


The prediction for Bitstamp was

Bitstamp predicted price: 615 plus or minus 10 USD (605 -- 625)
Bitstamp actual price (L--H): 654--670 USD
Error (difference between interval centers): 47 USD

In the following plot, the predicition is again the rightmost blue rectangle.  The yellow dots are Huobi's pices at Slumber Times, divided by the currency factor R (6.40 for feb/07 to feb/09, 6.12 for all other days):



Note that, today at 19:00 UTC, the price at Bitstamp was comparatively higher than Huobi's, even assuming the low currency factor R = 6.12.

[empowering]

.....

Another great post....love your work brother.

But sadly wasted here.   

[kurious]

Noblesse me oblige to report on the (in)accuracy of the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for today:

Prediciton posted on 2014-02-13 23:07 UTC
Prediction valid for 2014-02-14 19:00--19:59 UTC
Huobi predicted price: 3750 plus or minus 30 CNY (3720  -- 3780)
Huobi actual price (L--H): 3991--4016 CNY
Error (difference between interval centers): 250 CNY

The prediction is the blue rectangle at the far right in the chart below, under the price bars.  The yellow dots are the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.


Obviously someone bought several thousand coins around that time, well over the "right" price, with the sole purpose of creating a freak spike on the charts and falsify my prediction. 

Seriously, today Huobi's volume (over 200,000 BTC) was a historical record among all exchanges, and the price went through a crash and a rally, with no obvious reason for either of them.  Huobi's clients kept trading furiously until past 2:00 am local time, and went to bed in the middle of a spike that had apparently reached its top.  Today's Slumber Point is way out of line with the previous three which had a clear descending trend.


The prediction for Bitstamp was

Bitstamp predicted price: 615 plus or minus 10 USD (605 -- 625)
Bitstamp actual price (L--H): 654--670 USD
Error (difference between interval centers): 47 USD

In the following plot, the predicition is again the rightmost blue rectangle.  The yellow dots are Huobi's pices at Slumber Times, divided by the currency factor R (6.40 for feb/07 to feb/09, 6.12 for all other days):



Note that, today at 19:00 UTC, the price at Bitstamp was comparatively higher than Huobi's, even assuming the low currency factor R = 6.12.

Don't give up Jorge - your honesty makes you a more respected source and your TA is well-founded and much appreciated, I assure you.

Predicting anything in the BTC market with so many variables can at times appear futile, but to look for patterns is a noble pursuit.

[Richy_T]

I drew some lines on a chart, and ya its official,

Cant... work... out... which... one... to... shoot...

[fonzie]

About to begin:



China thinks Bitcoin sucks, and so do i

[empowering]

Hey Fonzi... did you check with all of them ?  even the Macau boys?   

[TERA]

Today has shown yet another impressive bounce from a highly oversold level. The bounce was based on information and repressed forces, and it is likely that emotions were involved, driving it exceptionally high. However, we are still early into the bear market and the current charts closely resemble a bulltrap in June. The chart still needs some time to develop and prove itself as not a trap by sustaining these high levels and so far it does not look like that is happening on Bitstamp. If it is a trap then the 3 day EMAs will be crossing down.

[JorgeStolfi]

Here are the predictions for Sat feb/15 by the Chinese Slumber Method.

Unfortunately there is still no clear trend for the prices at the Slumber Times (19:00 UTC, 03:00 am China time; the yellow dots on Huobi's chart from my previous post).  WIth the skies too cloudy to see the birds, a prudent Prophet should refuse to read the future. But the word "prudent" is not in Bitcoin's lexicon, so...

I could use the last two points and extrapolate in a straight line.  However I don't think that is sensible because:

  * it would result in an upward trend, and that seems quite unlikely at this point;
  
  * the last point was at the end of a very atypical day, with extremely high volume and extremely large and fast swings;

  * during the rally, up to and including 19:00 UTC, prices at Bitstamp were generally higher than the prices at Huobi; suggesting that this time
     it was Bitstamp, not Huobi, that drove the price up, and in particular that sustained the spike around 19:00.  So the last Slumber Price probably should not be
     indicative of Huobi's natural trend.

  * That spike occured late on Friday night, so Huobi's clients were probably drunk at the time and did not realize what they were doing.  

So, you may call me a pig-headed bear, but I will ignore todays Slumber Point and instead extrapolate again the trend of the three previous Slumber Points.

Prediction valid for: 2014-02-15 19:00--19:59 (nor before, not after)
Huobi: 3630 plus or minus 40 CNY (3620 -- 3670)
Bitstamp: 600 plus or minus 25 USD (575 -- 625)

These predicitions are ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED to be either right or wrong.  

EDIT: date is Sat Feb/15 not Sat Feb/14, of course.

[spooderman]

if anyone told you last year that early 2014 we would be up at these prices would you have believed them? We are doing fantastically, there is too much depression around here.

[fonzie]

Today has shown yet another impressive bounce from a highly oversold level. However, we are still early into the bear market and the current charts closely resemble a bulltrap in June. The chart still needs some time to develop and prove itself as not a trap by sustaining these high levels and so far it does not look like that is happening on Bitstamp. If it is a trap then the 3 day EMAs will be crossing down.

I´m lookin forward to it since days. This is gonna be awesome!

[inca]

if anyone told you last year that early 2014 we would be up at these prices would you have believed them? We are doing fantastically, there is too much depression around here.

As a lurker who bought in mainly in march/april 2013 i concur! My recent buy around 750 seems a little silly now. But hopefully the price will hover around this level and i can continue to slowly accumulate with fiat monthly before the next blastoff.

I wonder how many lurkers there are who read this thread and do exactly that..slowly accumulate and hold just enjoying the show

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !
  EXCHANGE   !  02/06 !  02/07 !  02/08 !  02/09 !  02/10 !  02/11 !  02/12 !  02/13 !  02/14 ! Currencies considered

  MtGOX      |  21.54 |  58.89 |  26.82 |  23.48 |  50.07 |  18.70 |  25.21 |  33.85 |  79.56 | USD,EUR,GBP,AUD,JPY
  Bitstamp   |  20.65 |  42.79 |  13.50 |  15.06 |  71.86 |  40.06 |  15.51 |  28.15 |  63.38 | USD
  BitFinEx   |  21.11 |  66.36 |  11.12 |  12.07 |  41.98 |  39.54 |  12.85 |  17.17 |  53.68 | USD
  BTC-e      |   9.72 |  31.84 |  11.67 |  12.51 |  47.04 |  28.64 |   9.97 |  18.53 |  52.18 | USD,EUR,RUR
  Kraken     |   0.59 |   1.45 |   0.37 |   0.45 |   1.45 |   1.11 |   0.58 |   0.93 |   1.79 | EUR
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.61 |   1.30 |   0.37 |   0.47 |   1.54 |   0.67 |   0.51 |   0.78 |   1.63 | EUR
  CaVirtEx   |   0.39 |   1.07 |   0.57 |   0.23 |   0.77 |   0.53 |   0.29 |   0.41 |   1.16 | CAD
  CampBX     |   0.21 |   0.82 |   0.27 |   0.24 |   0.37 |   0.11 |   0.10 |   0.21 |   0.41 | USD

  SUBTOTAL   |  74.82 | 204.52 |  64.69 |  64.51 | 215.08 | 129.36 |  65.02 | 100.03 | 253.79 |

  Huobi      |  39.97 | 131.91 |  77.00 |  64.08 | 134.09 | 120.08 | 131.86 |  82.39 | 236.27 | CNY
  OKCoin     |  26.07 |  74.37 |  37.63 |  34.63 |  70.49 |  64.22 |  60.79 |  62.49 | 147.26 | CNY
  BTC-China  |   4.09 |  17.66 |   6.86 |   5.75 |  18.23 |  11.17 |  11.01 |   8.02 |  24.87 | CNY

  SUBTOTAL   |  70.13 | 223.94 | 121.49 | 104.46 | 222.81 | 195.47 | 203.66 | 152.90 | 408.40 |

  TOTAL      | 144.95 | 428.46 | 186.18 | 168.97 | 437.89 | 324.83 | 268.68 | 252.93 | 662.19 |



All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Coinbase is said to use Bitstamp for currency conversion.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

[fonzie]

Gox crashin hard. Bitstamp will be next. 

[hdbuck]

The bulltrap in June was also assisted with information that mtgox had fixed its withdrawals. The final reversal later did not rely on any such information.

indeed...

[kkaspar]

I drank about 0,5 liters of vodka, and bought 0,22BTC for transferring to BTC-E, to visit the trollbox :|
I'm thinking of drinking the other 0,5l and I hope that there are some more intoxicated people here, so I don't bring shame upon myself alone

[fonzie]

I drank about 0,5 liters of vodka, and bought 0,22BTC for transferring to BTC-E, to visit the trollbox :|
I'm thinking of drinking the other 0,5l and I hope that there are some more intoxicated people here, so I don't bring shame upon myself alone

That´s the way to do it! +1
I can truly recommend this lifestyle!

[Peter R]

I drank about 0,5 liters of vodka, and bought 0,22BTC for transferring to BTC-E, to visit the trollbox :|
I'm thinking of drinking the other 0,5l and I hope that there are some more intoxicated people here, so I don't bring shame upon myself alone

Hey, you're buying at a rate of 0.44 BTC per liter of vodka.  Just 4773 more liters until you make the Vladimir Club.

[TERA]

I drank about 0,5 liters of vodka, and bought 0,22BTC for transferring to BTC-E, to visit the trollbox :|
I'm thinking of drinking the other 0,5l and I hope that there are some more intoxicated people here, so I don't bring shame upon myself alone

That´s the way to do it! +1
I can truly recommend this lifestyle!

buy drunk sell high,  the famous btc-e trader motto (next to buy high sell low)

drunk reduces inhibitions and high increases paranoia