Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[pjviitas]

What would it take for you to admit you're wrong about Bitcoin, Jorge? What set of conditions? What would have to happen?

For starters, bitcoiners would have to find a way to get rid of all altcoins, present and future. Including AppleCoin, WellsFargoCoin, WalmartCoin, ...

Perhaps they can find corrupt congressmen that will accept bribes in bitcoin and pass laws criminalizing the use of other coins? 

LOL. So we would have to prevent something that doesn't exist yet? How do you know we haven't already done the through the magic of "market incentives"? If those corpcoins were truly decentralized, distributed and peer-to-peer, they would convey no advantage.  To the extent they would convey advantage, they would be to that extent less popular. Which may be why you don't see any.

So I would have to wait an infinite amount of time for you to admit you were wrong?

As for present alt-coins, why do they make you doubt Bitcoin? Success always has imitators.

Altcoins are the safety net for crypto-currencies.

When some idiot tries to corner the market on Bitcoin simply trade into an altcoin.

Crypto-currencies are not all about Bitcoin.

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[Richy_T]

I think you may mean this Richy::

That's the one.

[pjviitas]

This makes NO sense. Something here is fishy. I have been mystified for days. To me it gox should be bullish. You can get money in, you can buy crazy cheap coins, you will be able to get them out again soon. (they're not fucking insolvent, Mark would be found and murdered straight away.)

Meanwhile, stamp is double the price?? At first I thought the "malleability issue" was a joke and entirely the fault of gox's poor heigene, then the other exchanges followed suit, and silk road 2. So if this is a legit issue with btc itself, and we are capable of understanding that that doesn't really matter as the protocol can and will be changed whenever it is required by enough of us, the only reason for the doom and gloom is....people just don't like gox, but the reason for that should be because of the FIAT withdrawal problem which they have had for months and months, yet it DOESN'T SEEM TO BE.

Where there is fiat there is ponzi

[pjviitas]

The sooner the Gox disappears up its own ass, the better for everyone.

+1

[pjviitas]

If gox withdrawls are enabled, I'd go all in btc (actually, sooner) and transfer immediatly to stamp.  Then i'd cash out.  Gox price will rise, stamp price will collapse and we'll be back to pre-btc withdrawl problems with gox 100$ above stamp.

Imagine buying 330$ btcs and selling half of them for 650 a minute later.

+1

There is no easy way out of this one.

GOX needs to die and let the other exchanges pick up the pieces and move on.

[KeyserSoze]

Jorge, you're the voice of sanity here...

In his previous 2 posts Jorge said Bitcoin is a bad investment and to survive it would need to get rid of all altcoins. Are you sure you want to attach the "voice of sanity" to him?

To date Bitcoin has for many been one of the best investments in human history, monetarily. It could still be an incredible monetary investment -- how many investments offered 800% return in 6 months? 12,500% in the last 1-2 years? As a social investment it's possible it could become nearly unparalleled. Sure it could go bust. Every investment offers a downside. Calling Bitcoin risky is fair but writing it off as simply bad shows no foresight or possibly is simply revealing Jorge for a pleasant bear (if you couldn't already tell). Sure, he isn't invested himself and he's here for academic reasons only...  

Bitcoin has also survived altcoins since around the Oct. 7, 2011 launch of LiteCoin. There will probably be thousands of altcoins in the future. Whether Bitcoin will stand the test of time no one knows however more and more groovy stuff is being built on top of Bitcoin so that it gets harder and harder for alts to have any significance beyond niche currency level.

[KeyserSoze]

[Gox] deserve to go down because either they don't have the coins or they try to manipulate the market to make a profit.

If you don't like Gox don't use them and move on with your life.

[pjviitas]

That would have to be quite a conspiracy. That would suggest Mark or somebody could do this without someone else in the company finding out or that the whole company is in on it.

I doubt that more than 3 people at MtGOX know how many bitcoins they have in their own wallets and how many dollars/yen they have in their bank.

In the classical collapses, like Enron's and Madoff's, very few people in the company were aware of the real situation, and they were all cooperating with the wrongdoings out of self-interest (or because they were chosen precisely for their "moral qualities").

In any case, that robot could be operated by one person inside MtGOX without anyone else knowing. Or by an external accomplice.

But let's assume that's true. First they drove the price higher presumably to get more fiat and then are now driving it lower to get more coins, right?

I would say the opposite: first they kept the price up 10% above market to lure people into depositing their real bitcoins in exchange for gox dollars (virtual dollars in MtGOX's internal client accounts); while stalling on dollar withdrawals (the conversion of gox dollars into real dollars).  The high price also discouraged people from changing their gox dollars into gox bitcoins (virtual bitcoins in MtGOX's internal client accounds) and withdraing them (that is, converting them to real bitcoins).

When GOX clients began to realize that dollar withdrawals weren't working, they tried to use the bitcoin route in spite of the 10% loss.  Then at first MtGOX raised the premium to 20%, and also began to stall on bitcoin withdrawals -- thanks to a providential "malelability bug"  that stalled 40,000 bitcoins over several month, but which they somehow could not figure out in all that time.

But those measures did not stop the outflow, so they just suspended all withdrawals and promised that by Monday they may provide an estimate of when they may promise something.

What is happening now, it seems, is clients converting their virtual GOX coins to virtual GOX dollars at ~40% loss, presumably because they think that if they keep the virtual coins they may lose more than 40% in the end.

I wonder who is buying those coins. Could be clients who are slightly (only slightly) more optimistic about the chances of future bitcoin withdrawals.  Could be MtGOX itself, trying to reduce the amount it owes to its captive victims. 

Why not just operate as a fractional reserve? Some technical reason?

For a bank, fractional banking means to loan out or invest more money than its customers have deposited in their accounts.  That is a gamble, based on the hope that only a fraction of the customers will ever want to take out their money at the same time.  Sometimes a bank bank loses the gamble (and then clients usually lose some of their money).

A simple exchange like MtGOX should not be doing any fractional banking, since it is not in the business of lending or investing, whwther money or bicoins.  However, its management would have been strongly tempted to invest most of the real bitcoins that clients had deposited to earn interest on them; trusting that only a few clients would want to withdraw them at any time.  If MtGOX did that, perhaps they made a bad investment, or perhaps they sold the bitcoins when the price was 100$, and now that it is 600$ they may not have enough assets to buy all of them back.

This will be an interesting story if we ever find out the truth.

For sure!

+1

[MANofthePEOPLE]

I just paint a wall, watched the paint dry and then went back to find the price still at $650   

[KeyserSoze]

the bottom is when the price smashes against a certain level for a good amount of time and there's an unlimited amount of support until it starts slowly creeping up. Like gox did at 300, and then there's multiple additional high volume tests and they are all supported at gradually increasingly higher levels, until an explosion happens. a huge vertical wall of support continues to build behind the action as a new base.

So how long is a "good amount of time" and what do you mean by "unlimited support"? We've smashed into the ~$530 level twice now (stamp), the second time with a lot more volume. Are you saying that can't be the floor or is it just too soon to tell in your opinion?

... Maybe he will share with you if you share with us what "substantial" and "for a while" and "something major" means ...

So where is the bottom in this market?

I get the funny feeling it won't be until GOX dies

The bottom is in. The lows from here on out will be higher than previous lows, but we're not going up substantially either. Not for a while unless something major happens.

[fonzie]

Legit TA is legit TA!


u all know what happened a few days ago when MA 3d crossed.




this time it´s EMA 3d and it will be way worse



To the moon!

[mmitech]

when Gox activate BTC withdrawals, we will see a fast price denial, gox price will start recovering very fast, it is already happening, people are buying GOX BTC at a discount, then they will dump it all over other exchanges.

IMHO we could visit 400-500 range and stay there for a couple of days, then maybe recover back to 700-800 when all the action/FUD is gone...

[KeyserSoze]

Those corpcoins will look superficially like bitcoin in the way people will use them, but of course will not be anything like the libertarian dream.  For 99.9% of the population, that will not matter.

This wouldn't be much different than Frequent Flier Miles. If each corp wants a coin they'd then also have to deal with all the computer processing necessary to secure its blockchain. What corp wants to put such resources into essentially an internal "points" program? Why not use Bitcoin whose "points" might be spendable everywhere by then?

There are many things wrong with that argument, but one of them is that there is an infinite number of cryptocoins, and they all are in principle as good as bitcoin for the purpose of low-fee payments via internet.

No crypto coin is as good as Bitcoin until a people trusts one as a currency outside its niche. This requires network effect plus massive computing power for security. Only the top dog will have the most security of processing power, which may be fine for Sally's GerbilCoin to risk but wouldn't be fine for SearsCoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fonzie]

There seems to be unlimited supply on the ask side of Stamp.
Last chance to buy high!

[7thKingdom]

We need a Schoolcoin for school ecosystems, where a students worth is no longer measured by grades, but through the number of coins they have.  Coins can be used to redeem grades as well as other items like extra pudding at lunch.

I can see it now... This will create a thriving school based economy where the smart students could trickle their coins down to the dumb kids for various goods and services.  Giving each member of the school society a valuable role.  The smart kids are encouraged to do good work and the dumb kids benefit by finding what they're valuable at as well.

Naturally, the bullies will eventually realize they can just beat up the smart kids and get them to give up their private keys, thereby giving the bullies access to all the smart kids coins.  That is, until the smart kids begin to pay off other big kids for protection from the bullies.  Meanwhile, there will be a couple super smart geeks who figure out how to game the system and steal the coins of everyone, but when people realize whats happened, those geeks will have to pay off the majority of bullies even more so that they become allies.  

The result will be a few super rich geeks with a thriving class of rich mob like thug bullies who ensure the super rich geeks stay protected and in the shadows (so long as the thugs get their cut).  Meanwhile, the other 99% of students will continue about their days working hard and earning Schoolcoins based on the quality of work they do, none the wiser that the majority of their coins are being funneled to the super smart geeks who know how to game the system.

Eventually though, cracks will start to appear as most students begin to realize that they're only making enough coins to afford C level grades and some measly square lunchroom pizza when they are really a B level student who should be getting quality chicken tenders at lunch.  Slowly, they'll begin to figure out that something is up.  Walking down the halls, they can't help but notice that there are a select few students who no longer eat lunch in the lunch room.  They have a private room to themselves where they get all kinds of different takeout each day.  They also no longer attend class, instead spending all their time working on various projects in secret.  Yet they keep receiving a large amount of Schoolcoins for the classes they no longer attend.

As the pieces begin to fall into place, it dawns on the regular students that they've been gamed by the system and at that point, a revolution is inevitable.  Unfortunately, all this will play out over many many years.  All the while, there will be generations of students who were unable to afford good colleges because they couldn't to save up enough Schoolcoin to pay the entry fee, since cardboard pizza and a few luxuries like 30 minutes of recess a day ate up their entire savings.

[molecular]

Altcoins are the safety net for crypto-currencies.

When some idiot tries to corner the market on Bitcoin simply trade into an altcoin.

Crypto-currencies are not all about Bitcoin.

This can't be stressed enough.

crypto has to be viewed as a whole. Clearly bitcoin is the leader now, but attacking only Bitcoin will not succeed because the other coins are just waiting for their chance.

This doesn't mean I'm moving wealth into altcoins in any meaningful way, it just means that cryptocurrency (the idea) is way bigger than bitcoin alone.

[phyros]

https://www.bitstamp.net/article/Bitcoin-withdrawals-are-once-again-fully-automated/

[beaconpcguru]

Has the warning always been there?  I only noticed it now.
https://www.bitstamp.net/risk-warning/

[robboman]

Legit TA is legit TA!


u all know what happened a few days ago when MA 3d crossed.




this time it´s EMA 3d and it will be way worse



To the moon!

hey, where do you get that chart from? website or mt4? thanks!