Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[wachtwoord]

I guess it is safe to say that none of us know. But in danger of missing a Black Swan go by I would rather sacrifice some future "profit" or holdings of BTC by trying to buy in later at lower prices, with just holding at what I see to be a great price - now. But I can say, it is wise to have capital available to buy more in later should that occur. But it sounds like you are trying to rationalize the greatest social experiment in the history of our civilization. Think about that.

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

People should really try to comprehend this. The small value you are likely to gain by waiting (which is relatively probable) does not beat the enormous gain you lose by being out when the price suddenly spikes (even though this is a far less likely event to happen in the time-frame you are out of BTC). The opportunity cost of choosing fiat over BTC short term can be extremely high.

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[ChartBuddy]

[thoughtfan]

I guess it is safe to say that none of us know. But in danger of missing a Black Swan go by I would rather sacrifice some future "profit" or holdings of BTC by trying to buy in later at lower prices, with just holding at what I see to be a great price - now. But I can say, it is wise to have capital available to buy more in later should that occur. But it sounds like you are trying to rationalize the greatest social experiment in the history of our civilization. Think about that.

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

People should really try to comprehend this. The small value you are likely to gain by waiting (which is relatively probable) does not beat the enormous gain you lose by being out when the price suddenly spikes (even though this is a far less likely event to happen in the time-frame you are out of BTC). The opportunity cost of choosing fiat over BTC short term can be extremely high.

^ This!

[Its About Sharing]

I guess it is safe to say that none of us know. But in danger of missing a Black Swan go by I would rather sacrifice some future "profit" or holdings of BTC by trying to buy in later at lower prices, with just holding at what I see to be a great price - now. But I can say, it is wise to have capital available to buy more in later should that occur. But it sounds like you are trying to rationalize the greatest social experiment in the history of our civilization. Think about that.

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

People should really try to comprehend this. The small value you are likely to gain by waiting (which is relatively probable) does not beat the enormous gain you lose by being out when the price suddenly spikes (even though this is a far less likely event to happen in the time-frame you are out of BTC). The opportunity cost of choosing fiat over BTC short term can be extremely high.

Exactly. If you get super lucky and call it right you might get another 20% or so, but if you call it wrong you are holding ZERO and buying in at much higher levels.

Look at the world - Banks are printing money (Japan, US, Euro) at record levels, Gold/Silver is being naked short sold in the paper markets suppressing the price and all the while Central banks are buying gold up, Unemployment is up, Financial numbers are being fudged, new wars are being talked about or close (Syria, Iran, etc.), etc. and etc.

When the weasel goes pop you won't have time to get back in and you won't believe where the price is...

IAS

[thoughtfan]

In fact ^this is the reason I don't have enough fiat to risk to on the arbing game.

Id quite happily be trading between mtgox\btc-e but there isnt a quick and easy way to move $ between the two... especially when your from the UK.
unless someone wants to enlighten me??

I just started to try.  So far I have been charged 4% for uploading funds to OKPay.  4%! So even before btce and mtgox commissions, you have to write off 4%.  Its sort of discouraged me from uploading a serious amount of money.

Ive tried to find a route for far too many hours, and after total fees, im concluding the margins are too small for the amount of turnover necessary, for the current risks involved (seized exchange funds). There is something left, but the UK route just dont make it viable enough.

Thanks to you and others for trying.  I know it was never easy but my guess it's happening even less now is if all the exchanges closing in recent months wasn't enough, the DHS/Dwolla/mtgox was a stark reminder of how risky it is to hold money (whether fiat or bitcoins) on the exchanges.  Arbing for decent money requires shifting large sums and I'm guessing the rewards (after costs and delays of moving money) aren't sufficient to justify the risks involved.

But for now at least it looks like the gap with bitstamp is closing a bit even though overall volumes are pretty dismal so I guess not much to be read into the figures:

[Rampion]

Volume at Gox is so small it is almost scary

[wonkytonky]

i'm looking at the daily ema's crossing on clark mood    
- given the positive news lately,
- conference 2013
- vc's getting involved
- mtgox dwolla shizzle
-  even after a 4-5 k selloff in weekend  the price kept around 120.. with no volume trading at all..
 looks verry bullish to me.

now please don't rally before my sepa arrived.. thanks

[thoughtfan]

Volume at Gox is so small it is almost scary

In the context of the last few months I guess it could be scary but in the bigger picture we're less than half way through the day (with the US just coming into play) and it's still in the all time top 20 Mondays for USD volume!  It may be a little premature to be getting worried

[Its About Sharing]

Volume at Gox is so small it is almost scary

Yeah, but it is a bank holiday here in Germany and I think in other places as well.

When the general volume on MtGox falls below that of other exchanges then you will know something took place. That probably doesn't happen as the recent DHS news isn't really much, but who knows how it affects people.

[ChartBuddy]

[wachtwoord]

Since Pentecost itself is on a Sunday, it is automatically a public holiday in Christian countries. Additional restrictions to Sunday opening hours may apply.

Pentecost Monday is a public holiday in many European countries including Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Portugal Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Romania (since 2008), (most parts of) Switzerland, Ukraine and also in the African nations Senegal, Benin and Togo.

In Sweden it was also a public holiday, but Pentecost Monday (Annandag Pingst) was replaced by Swedish National Day on June 6, by a government decision on December 15, 2004. In Italy and Malta, it is no longer a public holiday. It was a public holiday in Ireland until 1973. In the United Kingdom the day is known as Whit Monday, and was a bank holiday until 1967 when it was replaced by the Spring Bank Holiday.

[thoughtfan]

Given that there's so little going on I'm still pondering on the differences between the rates on the various exchanges - this time with respect to the way BitPay claims to be calculating its own rate:

Bitcoin Exchange Rates
As of today, the only exchange that has enough liquidity and tight spreads to pull real time rates is BTC/USD.

To calculate the exchange rate for US Dollars, we pull up-to-the-minute BID prices from three exchanges. We take the 2 that are closest together and toss out the third, so that a bad feed from one exchange will not affect our calculation. Of the 2 rates that remain, Bit-Pay uses the highest BID price as our exchange rate.

Looking at the current figures below 'the 2 that are closest together' are bitstamp and btce leaving gox as the one that ought be 'tossed'.



Yet the rate showing on Bitpay's list is mtgox's:



 I'm not saying it 'should' be but I'm guessing their algorithm is a bit more sophisitcated than the explanation implies?

[ChartBuddy]

[crumbcake]

$120 isn't cheap? 11 million shares and a global economy that we are only hoping to get a small fraction of a percentage of ? $120 is VERY cheap when you factor in the market, incoming VC money, low float, affect on currency/monetary policy, etc. We are talking about a revolutionary game changing technology. Can you come up with something better?  

True, compared to world economy $120 is still cheap. But world domination takes time. Historical growth rate of bitcoin is somewhere around a tenfolding every 1-2 years. That just happened, so chances are low it will happen again anytime soon. A black swan event can ofcourse always occur, a single ambitious billionaire jumping into bitcoin can do the trick, so always be exposed to bitcoin with a decent percentage of your capital.

That being said, chances are higher for it to correct after a bubble than for it to launch into a new one shortly thereafter. So a good portion of your bitcoin capital on the sidelines is rational in my opinion.

I guess it is safe to say that none of us know. But in danger of missing a Black Swan go by I would rather sacrifice some future "profit" or holdings of BTC by trying to buy in later at lower prices, with just holding at what I see to be a great price - now. But I can say, it is wise to have capital available to buy more in later should that occur. But it sounds like you are trying to rationalize the greatest social experiment in the history of our civilization. Think about that.

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

Black Swan is only a Black Swan in hindsight.  'Til then, it's a Red Herring or an Ugly Duckling

[crumbcake]

I guess it is safe to say that none of us know. But in danger of missing a Black Swan go by I would rather sacrifice some future "profit" or holdings of BTC by trying to buy in later at lower prices, with just holding at what I see to be a great price - now. But I can say, it is wise to have capital available to buy more in later should that occur. But it sounds like you are trying to rationalize the greatest social experiment in the history of our civilization. Think about that.

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

People should really try to comprehend this. The small value you are likely to gain by waiting (which is relatively probable) does not beat the enormous gain you lose by being out when the price suddenly spikes (even though this is a far less likely event to happen in the time-frame you are out of BTC). The opportunity cost of choosing fiat over BTC short term can be extremely high.

Exactly. If you get super lucky and call it right you might get another 20% or so, but if you call it wrong you are holding ZERO and buying in at much higher levels.
[snip]

In other words, you see nothing wrong with Pascal's Wager?http://s20.postimg.org/tznsaqqt9/Capture.jpg

[CMMPro]

I guess it is safe to say that none of us know. But in danger of missing a Black Swan go by I would rather sacrifice some future "profit" or holdings of BTC by trying to buy in later at lower prices, with just holding at what I see to be a great price - now. But I can say, it is wise to have capital available to buy more in later should that occur. But it sounds like you are trying to rationalize the greatest social experiment in the history of our civilization. Think about that.

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

People should really try to comprehend this. The small value you are likely to gain by waiting (which is relatively probable) does not beat the enormous gain you lose by being out when the price suddenly spikes (even though this is a far less likely event to happen in the time-frame you are out of BTC). The opportunity cost of choosing fiat over BTC short term can be extremely high.

Exactly. If you get super lucky and call it right you might get another 20% or so, but if you call it wrong you are holding ZERO and buying in at much higher levels.
[snip]

In other words, you see nothing wrong with Pascal's Wager?

I think you have to add another column...."Wrong God Exists" there to be more accurate. 

Isn't there an infinite chance that the god he could "believe in" is the wrong one?

In that case believing in no god is probably better than believing in the wrong one.

[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

$120 isn't cheap? 11 million shares and a global economy that we are only hoping to get a small fraction of a percentage of ? $120 is VERY cheap when you factor in the market, incoming VC money, low float, affect on currency/monetary policy, etc. We are talking about a revolutionary game changing technology. Can you come up with something better?  

True, compared to world economy $120 is still cheap. But world domination takes time. Historical growth rate of bitcoin is somewhere around a tenfolding every 1-2 years. That just happened, so chances are low it will happen again anytime soon. A black swan event can ofcourse always occur, a single ambitious billionaire jumping into bitcoin can do the trick, so always be exposed to bitcoin with a decent percentage of your capital.

That being said, chances are higher for it to correct after a bubble than for it to launch into a new one shortly thereafter. So a good portion of your bitcoin capital on the sidelines is rational in my opinion.

I guess it is safe to say that none of us know. But in danger of missing a Black Swan go by I would rather sacrifice some future "profit" or holdings of BTC by trying to buy in later at lower prices, with just holding at what I see to be a great price - now. But I can say, it is wise to have capital available to buy more in later should that occur. But it sounds like you are trying to rationalize the greatest social experiment in the history of our civilization. Think about that.

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

Black Swan is only a Black Swan in hindsight.  'Til then, it's a Red Herring or an Ugly Duckling

That is not true about only a Black Swan in hindsight, it is merely hard to predict. So, for the masses it is near impossible to predict. A few (including me) called the internet as a Black Swan. Now I'm saying cryptocurrencies (maybe BTC) are the next big Black Swan. And they are Anti-fragile to boot. Very very powerful (see Sig).   

[wachtwoord]

Pascal's wager is wrong because no God as defined in human religion can exist.

Ignoring that is is wrong because he uses infinite numbers while these should obviously be finite.

[crumbcake]

I guess it is safe to say that none of us know. But in danger of missing a Black Swan go by I would rather sacrifice some future "profit" or holdings of BTC by trying to buy in later at lower prices, with just holding at what I see to be a great price - now. But I can say, it is wise to have capital available to buy more in later should that occur. But it sounds like you are trying to rationalize the greatest social experiment in the history of our civilization. Think about that.

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

People should really try to comprehend this. The small value you are likely to gain by waiting (which is relatively probable) does not beat the enormous gain you lose by being out when the price suddenly spikes (even though this is a far less likely event to happen in the time-frame you are out of BTC). The opportunity cost of choosing fiat over BTC short term can be extremely high.

Exactly. If you get super lucky and call it right you might get another 20% or so, but if you call it wrong you are holding ZERO and buying in at much higher levels.
[snip]

In other words, you see nothing wrong with Pascal's Wager?http://s20.postimg.org/tznsaqqt9/Capture.jpg

I think you have to add another column...."Wrong God Exists" there to be more accurate. 

You got it!  It's ALT COIN!