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Question: Next Bubble Top (resulting in a new ATH):
Will never reach a new ATH - 10 (8.3%)
$20,000-$49,999 - 24 (20%)
$50,000-$99,999 - 30 (25%)
$100,000-$149,999 - 23 (19.2%)
$150,000-$199,999 - 9 (7.5%)
$200,000-$249,999 - 7 (5.8%)
$250,000-$299,999 - 2 (1.7%)
$300,000-$350,000 - 1 (0.8%)
>$350,000 - 14 (11.7%)
Total Voters: 120

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21505758 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (142 posts by 32 users deleted.)
Quietlylurking
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May 17, 2013, 02:25:54 AM
 #8901

People here don't half talk a lot when there's nothing to talk about.

If you're not occupied by the market changing there's an enormous amount of tinfoil hatting going on. Do the conspiracy theorists still have money? With minds as emotional as that I can't imagine they'll be holding onto it for long. There's still a daily swing of 5% occurring, that's an enormous potential gain. There's been an introduction of an enormous amount of value to the market compared to just a few months ago, we're on the backend of that introduction of money now and the habits that are defined now will be the habits that continue afterwards.

In short, reassess your plans in order to profit from the smaller 5% swings with the larger 10-15% ups and downs. Things aren't going to be changing for a while, you can sit around waiting for the larger swings to come back or you can work out a method to profit off the current market conditions as it's likely to remain this way for a while.

Everyone's waiting for the daily 10-14% swings to come back, and while everyone is waiting for those to come back there will be no swings as there will be no volume as everyone is just waiting for those swings.

Made a 25% increase in the last 8 days repeatedly exploiting the daily low and daily high.

Back to lurking.
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bobdude17
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May 17, 2013, 02:31:19 AM
 #8902



I thought the same thing at first too, bobdude.  But the piece that didn't fit was the remarkable lack of volume or volatility after Gox came back up.  
That's what evolved my thinking to a 'perfect storm' scenario:
-We're finally concluding the price discovery following the $266-to-50 crash
-Rather than resuming an upward rally or beginning a downtrend, we entered a trading range.  The spring coils tighter.
-Potential for good news is on the horizon - no one wants to sell.
-While information is sparse, the risk of Gox going away becomes a reality. Then a several hour likely orchestrated DDoS.

...and nothing happens.  Big money cannot buy silence. The market - each and every investor, just failed to act - buy or sell, when Gox came back online.
That's what led me to my conclusions here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181037.20 (Page 2, 6th post down).
The short version - I think it's going up Smiley  Guess we'll find out soon enough!

I'm reading your posts right now...

Wanted to respond real quick to this
Quote
But the piece that didn't fit was the remarkable lack of volume or volatility after Gox came back up.

Could it be a egg/chick argument? Couldn't artificial stability result in lack of volume?
I mean one thing that keeps me from selling in spite of bad news  is when the prices seem to remain steady. Calms people, less volume.
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May 17, 2013, 02:42:47 AM
 #8903

Quote
Do the conspiracy theorists still have money? With minds as emotional as that I can't imagine they'll be holding onto it for long.


bodude loves his conspiracy theories...


you shoulda seen the posts about China Smiley


I'm not in it to trade anyways sir, not in the stricter sense... I prefer to engage in general market sentiment discussion to gauge longer term buying in and selling points etc. Maybe I will attempt to trade again if there is another bubble in the future, but the finer stuff that goes into day trading... too emotional for that.
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May 17, 2013, 02:44:04 AM
 #8904

Bye, bye bears  Cheesy
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May 17, 2013, 02:48:15 AM
 #8905

Bye, bye bears  Cheesy

I suspect this will end in disaster.
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May 17, 2013, 02:49:21 AM
 #8906

Quote
Do the conspiracy theorists still have money? With minds as emotional as that I can't imagine they'll be holding onto it for long.


bodude loves his conspiracy theories...


you shoulda seen the posts about China Smiley

At least I do it with style  Smiley
And with logic, I like to think.

Quote
I'm not in it to trade anyways sir, not in the stricter sense... I prefer to engage in general market sentiment discussion to gauge longer term buying in and selling points etc. Maybe I will attempt to trade again if there is another bubble in the future, but the finer stuff that goes into day trading... too emotional for that.

Same.
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May 17, 2013, 02:51:49 AM
 #8907

Bye, bye bears  Cheesy

I suspect this will end in disaster.

Followed by an EVEN BIGGER PARTY

Anyway, looks like we're really in the midst of a decoupling from MtGox. Price 5% higher than all the other exchanges (this used to be really rare, especially for China), and volume dwindling. But will other exchanges still follow Gox's price lead? If they do, there is only one possible result: Price will be INFINITY.

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May 17, 2013, 02:53:23 AM
 #8908


ok... apples, all I can think about is apples now after seeing this:

https://btcglobal.net/


HEALTHY BITCOIN APPLES
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May 17, 2013, 03:05:28 AM
 #8909

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May 17, 2013, 03:17:44 AM
 #8910

No...

fr33d0miz3r
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May 17, 2013, 03:18:15 AM
 #8911

No...


+1  Grin
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May 17, 2013, 03:18:51 AM
 #8912

No...



 Grin  Eventually, yes.  But not today. 
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May 17, 2013, 03:29:04 AM
 #8913

Bot Fight!!
Chainsaw
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x


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May 17, 2013, 03:30:45 AM
 #8914


I'm reading your posts right now...

Wanted to respond real quick to this
Quote
But the piece that didn't fit was the remarkable lack of volume or volatility after Gox came back up.

Could it be a egg/chick argument? Couldn't artificial stability result in lack of volume?
I mean one thing that keeps me from selling in spite of bad news  is when the prices seem to remain steady. Calms people, less volume.
I think I understand what you proposed: Because market participants see large volume on each side supporting price, they are less apt to trade.
Assuming that's what you meant...I completely agree. But the order book profile would have to fit. To make the extreme case - it would be a 100k bid wall at 116.80 and a 100k ask wall at 116.81.

When you looked closely at the order book, I thought it was unique - the order book was more heavily loaded, farther away from the current price point.  I interpreted this as a preparation for an explosive breakout from the price channel, when it occurred, in either direction.  People were preparing on both sides.  I know I was.

So to go back to your question - yes I think it is possible, but in this case, I don't think the bid/ask volumes were what prevented price movement. There was a pretty standard <1000 bitcoins needed to move the price a dollar in either direction. (Except for a brief period with a 3.5k ask wall)  The price could have moved, about as easily as pre-crash. It just didn't.
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May 17, 2013, 03:33:58 AM
 #8915

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May 17, 2013, 03:37:46 AM
 #8916

Ares
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May 17, 2013, 04:51:51 AM
 #8917

rpietila
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May 17, 2013, 05:04:44 AM
 #8918

Sorry to steal the show, but even after spending 36 hours in an emergency care unit, I still think $1,000+ peak valuation is unstoppable before Christmas. My experiences tell that even the patients here are eager to buy by the truckload, as soon as they get into the position to do so. Not everyone was picked when he had all his belongings packed to two nice cabin bags (+the silver).
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May 17, 2013, 05:06:58 AM
 #8919

Thanks for sharing your market analysis out of the psychiatry, reptilia. 300k USD until Christmas!

I am currently detained in a psychiatric institution in Helsinki, because I need rest. My physical well-being is taken care of.
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May 17, 2013, 05:11:27 AM
 #8920

Thanks for sharing your market analysis out of the psychiatry, reptilia. 300k USD until Christmas!

I assume, no pun intended.

It may go to $5000 at the peak of the valuation bubble; long term $300 is sustainable.
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