Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Its About Sharing]

A friend in China mentioned today there's growing curiosity about BTC there after it was featured this weekend on CCTV.  It's made it to the daily hot topic on sina weibo.  Anyone want to speculate on whether/when this might be reflected in the exchanges?

We've discussed this quite a bit since the first CCTV news.  Word is that the latest news was neutral to somewhat positive. I think we are going to see adoption in China, both as a speculative investment but also because of the world economic situation. Something we have to consider also, is that people may start to get behind it as a big FU to the USD. That is probably why the government has been pretty open to it.

I imagine that over the next 6 months to a year that China will be the biggest holders of BTC. Just on population alone, it only takes a few thousand wealthy people to make that happen. Just a feeling of a guess.

As the price of BTC goes up, we either need to go to another term e.g. mBTC or do a split (if that is possible). With the latter no one loses holding power as with creating new shares. I just don't see people being as game to buy when the price is high. But, if it truly starts to grow and is seen as valuable, then mBTC will be the new term.

IAS

[1714911179]

1714911179

[1714911179]

1714911179

[1714911179]

1714911179

[1714911179]

1714911179

[Its About Sharing]

A friend in China mentioned today there's growing curiosity about BTC there after it was featured this weekend on CCTV.  It's made it to the daily hot topic on sina weibo.  Anyone want to speculate on whether/when this might be reflected in the exchanges?

Sure : It will make no difference whatsoever.

That is about as extreme as saying it will cause the price to explode to $10,000. I just don't see how advertising to millions or potentially billions of people will have no effect???

[Nolo]

A friend in China mentioned today there's growing curiosity about BTC there after it was featured this weekend on CCTV.  It's made it to the daily hot topic on sina weibo.  Anyone want to speculate on whether/when this might be reflected in the exchanges?

We've discussed this quite a bit since the first CCTV news.  Word is that the latest news was neutral to somewhat positive. I think we are going to see adoption in China, both as a speculative investment but also because of the world economic situation. Something we have to consider also, is that people may start to get behind it as a big FU to the USD. That is probably why the government has been pretty open to it.

I imagine that over the next 6 months to a year that China will be the biggest holders of BTC. Just on population alone, it only takes a few thousand wealthy people to make that happen. Just a feeling of a guess.

As the price of BTC goes up, we either need to go to another term e.g. mBTC or do a split (if that is possible). With the latter no one loses holding power as with creating new shares. I just don't see people being as game to buy when the price is high. But, if it truly starts to grow and is seen as valuable, then mBTC will be the new term.

IAS

I agree.  It's psychological as much as anything.  When we start using mBTC as the standard, I would be surprised if the price didn't increase almost immediately.

If you're a nobody investor without much money, would you feel more comfortable bragging to your friends that that you bought into the BTC market for .1BTC or would you rather say I bought 10,000 mBTC?

[Pale Phoenix]

Imagine, Bitstamp, Gox and all the exchanges as Gateways.  Then add Paypal, Bank of america, Citi Bank and any bank worldwide you can think of.  In time, you can use ANY of them as your gateway to move fiat and BTC.  You can also choose to NOT extend trust to any of them you choose.  This gives the power back to the people.  

I could theoretically buy BTC via paypal and send it to Gox.  Then I could sell that BTC at Gox and send Euros to some bank in the UK.  I can choose how and who I trust and when and where I utilize the gateways.  Now this is a simplified version as Ripple is in between these transfers but the cost from ripple is .00001 or something like that. It's like nothing.  This is what XRP's are for.  To pay transaction fees.  The average user wont need thousands of XRP.  The biggest fees are going to come from the gateways, which they already charge too much, IMO.

OK, so if I understand correctly, outside of regulatory issues, IYO the unique selling proposition of Ripple is that is makes it easier to move/exchange funds (BTC and fiat) at lower costs. That leads me to the following observations / questions:

1) Your example of buying BTC via Paypal presupposes that PayPal would allow services that deal in BTC to hold accounts. Similarly, Bank of America, Chase, etc. would each have to sign on to Ripple in order to be a trusted gateway. If this is necessary, isn't it just as likely that Coinbase or some other BTC based service will convince PayPal or a bank to integrate into its system?

2) Assuming Coinbase or another startup can connect with existing financial companies in this way, what advantage does Ripple have? The fees to move money on Ripple may be very low, but legacy financial companies are still going to want their fees whether money moves from their infrastructure to Ripple or Coinbase.

3) Perhaps you think that Ripple has value outside of the BTC ecosystem, for instance, that it could actually disrupt fiat payments and currency exchange by moving it outside of the banking system entirely. As this is exactly what Bitcoin seeks to do, Ripple will face the same problems, namely, getting money into and out of the banking system easily, without their buy in. I think you'd agree that banks aren't going to be disrupted without a fight, in which case, Bitcoin has network and brand advantages over Ripple.

4) You mention that the Bitcoin community has failed to address flaws and regulatory pressures, and that this gives Ripple an advantage. Certainly you must admit that Bitcoin is actively undergoing development and is at least further along in the process than Ripple. At this point, can you even judge Ripple's flaws? Aren't you just relying on the promises of OpenCoin?

As for regulatory issues, whatever some Bitcoin users believe, the main devs have indicated that avoiding regulation isn't really a concern for them. Not to mention, when has a new technology ever NOT gone through a period of uncertainty with regard to regulation? In the U.S. we are still debating whether interstate online sales should be subject to sales tax, and it has been decades.

You may well be right that Ripple addresses some of Bitcoin's problems, but after thinking it through, it seems to me that you aren't comparing Ripple to Bitcoin so much as comparing Ripple to the COMPANIES currently providing service in the Bitcoin ecosystem. I'm not convinced that Ripple has any advantage over either new, well financed, BTC related companies or existing BTC companies that get their act together.

[samson]

A friend in China mentioned today there's growing curiosity about BTC there after it was featured this weekend on CCTV.  It's made it to the daily hot topic on sina weibo.  Anyone want to speculate on whether/when this might be reflected in the exchanges?

Sure : It will make no difference whatsoever.

That is about as extreme as saying it will cause the price to explode to $10,000. I just don't see how advertising to millions or potentially billions of people will have no effect???

It had pretty much no difference the first time hit hit the TV in China.

There was a little price action based on the hype with money already on the exchanges but that soon died out.

[Pale Phoenix]

If only there was some buying and selling to speculate about....

Yeah, sorry for the Ripple talk... I am genuinely curious but it's not really on topic.

I'd appreciate it if Coinseeker would respond but I'll refrain from further discussion of it here.

[Its About Sharing]

A friend in China mentioned today there's growing curiosity about BTC there after it was featured this weekend on CCTV.  It's made it to the daily hot topic on sina weibo.  Anyone want to speculate on whether/when this might be reflected in the exchanges?

Sure : It will make no difference whatsoever.

That is about as extreme as saying it will cause the price to explode to $10,000. I just don't see how advertising to millions or potentially billions of people will have no effect???

It had pretty much no difference the first time hit hit the TV in China.

There was a little price action based on the hype with money already on the exchanges but that soon died out.

That is a very arguable point. Do you not remember the downloads of the QT client exploding? Do you not remember the price climbing coincidentally after that? What about the nodes showing up all over China?
Anyway, in an emerging and explosive market like BTC, I would not really pay much attention to one past event as being a predictor of future actions. That said, something clearly happened.

[Its About Sharing]

A friend in China mentioned today there's growing curiosity about BTC there after it was featured this weekend on CCTV.  It's made it to the daily hot topic on sina weibo.  Anyone want to speculate on whether/when this might be reflected in the exchanges?

We've discussed this quite a bit since the first CCTV news.  Word is that the latest news was neutral to somewhat positive. I think we are going to see adoption in China, both as a speculative investment but also because of the world economic situation. Something we have to consider also, is that people may start to get behind it as a big FU to the USD. That is probably why the government has been pretty open to it.

I imagine that over the next 6 months to a year that China will be the biggest holders of BTC. Just on population alone, it only takes a few thousand wealthy people to make that happen. Just a feeling of a guess.

As the price of BTC goes up, we either need to go to another term e.g. mBTC or do a split (if that is possible). With the latter no one loses holding power as with creating new shares. I just don't see people being as game to buy when the price is high. But, if it truly starts to grow and is seen as valuable, then mBTC will be the new term.

IAS

I agree.  It's psychological as much as anything.  When we start using mBTC as the standard, I would be surprised if the price didn't increase almost immediately.

If you're a nobody investor without much money, would you feel more comfortable bragging to your friends that that you bought into the BTC market for .1BTC or would you rather say I bought 10,000 mBTC?

Yeah, that psychological barrier is the biggest. But once we cross it, it is behind us. So, at first you are right, people are going to be like "I don't want no .1 BTC for $111!" But when the price keeps going up and then people are talking in mBTC, it won't be a problem. Also, even a noob can understand that a float of 11 million is NOTHING. We have to move those decimal places over.

[Frozenlock]

Do you not remember the price climbing coincidentally after that?

The price movement had already started before the Chinese event.

Since the crash, the only news that somewhat influenced the price was the MtGox/Dwolla incident.
And even then, the price movement was really lame.

[samson]

Do you not remember the price climbing coincidentally after that?

The price movement had already started before the Chinese event.

Since the crash, the only news that somewhat influenced the price was the MtGox/Dwolla incident.
And even then, the price movement was really lame.

Those initial Chinese qt client downloaders are probably still downloading the blockchain if the internet speeds are anything like they were the last time I went to China.

[Its About Sharing]

Do you not remember the price climbing coincidentally after that?

The price movement had already started before the Chinese event.

Since the crash, the only news that somewhat influenced the price was the MtGox/Dwolla incident.
And even then, the price movement was really lame.

Started moving but continued right? I mean we are talking about a volatile thing here. And you ignored the QT Client downloads exploding, as well as the presence of quite a few nodes over there.

Anyway, the bigger point is, How can something being shown to Billions of people in a positive light not have any effect, especially considering the times? That just seems impossible...

[ChartBuddy]

[Bitsburger]

A friend in China mentioned today there's growing curiosity about BTC there after it was featured this weekend on CCTV.  It's made it to the daily hot topic on sina weibo.  Anyone want to speculate on whether/when this might be reflected in the exchanges?

Sure : It will make no difference whatsoever.

That is about as extreme as saying it will cause the price to explode to $10,000. I just don't see how advertising to millions or potentially billions of people will have no effect???

It had pretty much no difference the first time hit hit the TV in China.

There was a little price action based on the hype with money already on the exchanges but that soon died out.

The thing that struck me this time is that he said it was a hot topic on weibo.  Does anyone know if that was the case after the earlier mentions on CCTV?

[Its About Sharing]

Do you not remember the price climbing coincidentally after that?

The price movement had already started before the Chinese event.

Since the crash, the only news that somewhat influenced the price was the MtGox/Dwolla incident.
And even then, the price movement was really lame.

Those initial Chinese qt client downloaders are probably still downloading the blockchain if the internet speeds are anything like they were the last time I went to China.

Good point, hopefully they find Multibit (is it)?

[notme]

A friend in China mentioned today there's growing curiosity about BTC there after it was featured this weekend on CCTV.  It's made it to the daily hot topic on sina weibo.  Anyone want to speculate on whether/when this might be reflected in the exchanges?

We've discussed this quite a bit since the first CCTV news.  Word is that the latest news was neutral to somewhat positive. I think we are going to see adoption in China, both as a speculative investment but also because of the world economic situation. Something we have to consider also, is that people may start to get behind it as a big FU to the USD. That is probably why the government has been pretty open to it.

I imagine that over the next 6 months to a year that China will be the biggest holders of BTC. Just on population alone, it only takes a few thousand wealthy people to make that happen. Just a feeling of a guess.

As the price of BTC goes up, we either need to go to another term e.g. mBTC or do a split (if that is possible). With the latter no one loses holding power as with creating new shares. I just don't see people being as game to buy when the price is high. But, if it truly starts to grow and is seen as valuable, then mBTC will be the new term.

IAS

I agree.  It's psychological as much as anything.  When we start using mBTC as the standard, I would be surprised if the price didn't increase almost immediately.

If you're a nobody investor without much money, would you feel more comfortable bragging to your friends that that you bought into the BTC market for .1BTC or would you rather say I bought 10,000 mBTC?

I'd rather have the 10,000mBTC == 10BTC

[Frozenlock]

I never felt this need with gold BTW.
As a store of value, some things are better seen as expensive.
Ie: "oh noes, gold is $1000+ an ounce ... better talk in grams!"

[solex]

A friend in China mentioned today there's growing curiosity about BTC there after it was featured this weekend on CCTV.  It's made it to the daily hot topic on sina weibo.  Anyone want to speculate on whether/when this might be reflected in the exchanges?

Sure : It will make no difference whatsoever.

That is about as extreme as saying it will cause the price to explode to $10,000. I just don't see how advertising to millions or potentially billions of people will have no effect???

It had pretty much no difference the first time hit hit the TV in China.

There was a little price action based on the hype with money already on the exchanges but that soon died out.

The thing that struck me this time is that he said it was a hot topic on weibo.  Does anyone know if that was the case after the earlier mentions on CCTV?

Chinese downloads of the Bitcoin software spiked after the 1st CCTV coverage:
http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline?dates=2013-05-01+to+2013-05-19

They are top country this month:
http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/map?dates=2013-05-01%20to%202013-05-19

[Missionary]

I never felt this need with gold BTW.
As a store of value, some things are better seen as expensive.
Ie: "oh noes, gold is $1000+ an ounce ... better talk in grams!"

This makes no sense. Why not use Kilo then, since that is the standard unit?

[Nolo]

A friend in China mentioned today there's growing curiosity about BTC there after it was featured this weekend on CCTV.  It's made it to the daily hot topic on sina weibo.  Anyone want to speculate on whether/when this might be reflected in the exchanges?

We've discussed this quite a bit since the first CCTV news.  Word is that the latest news was neutral to somewhat positive. I think we are going to see adoption in China, both as a speculative investment but also because of the world economic situation. Something we have to consider also, is that people may start to get behind it as a big FU to the USD. That is probably why the government has been pretty open to it.

I imagine that over the next 6 months to a year that China will be the biggest holders of BTC. Just on population alone, it only takes a few thousand wealthy people to make that happen. Just a feeling of a guess.

As the price of BTC goes up, we either need to go to another term e.g. mBTC or do a split (if that is possible). With the latter no one loses holding power as with creating new shares. I just don't see people being as game to buy when the price is high. But, if it truly starts to grow and is seen as valuable, then mBTC will be the new term.

IAS

I agree.  It's psychological as much as anything.  When we start using mBTC as the standard, I would be surprised if the price didn't increase almost immediately.

If you're a nobody investor without much money, would you feel more comfortable bragging to your friends that that you bought into the BTC market for .1BTC or would you rather say I bought 10,000 mBTC?

I'd rather have the 10,000mBTC == 10BTC

oops lol.  Math....

[Frozenlock]

I never felt this need with gold BTW.
As a store of value, some things are better seen as expensive.
Ie: "oh noes, gold is $1000+ an ounce ... better talk in grams!"

This makes no sense. Why not use Kilo then, since that is the standard unit?

I would like to.
Unfortunately most of continental America uses ounce.  
(When talking about PMs)

Edit: BTW, this site shows kilogram as the first price.