Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

Bitcoin usage only will justify a price of $25-50. Current remittances and the rare purchases in bitcoin are just not high enough yet.

We will likely approach $100 before rebounding. Speculators will come again but not for another year.

bitcoin is not just only a currency it is also a store of value like gold

The irony can't be lost on you, right?

I've been saying the same thing for more than a year now, like a broken record, on the way to the ATH and during the bear market alike: an asset that appreciates hugely in a short time is not a very good 'store of value', and one that loses 75% of its value in a year certainly isn't one either.

This is not to say Bitcoin cannot ever become one - just that, as it is now, with pretty wild swings in either direction, it isn't, even though some of the more, hm, brave Bitcoin supporters use it as if it were one, with the obvious consequences (i.e. if they "stored" early, major gains, if they "stored" within the last year, major losses)

[Tzupy]

Finally, the misleading weekly PSAR flipped on Bistamp:

Does that mean we are going up or down?

It only means that some people jumped to the wrong conclusion (bull run, new ATH soon) in November.

[JorgeStolfi]

Can somebody share with all of us, at what price level does BTC becomes unprofitable for the miners and they start shutting off they rigs and BTC collapses completely? Is this even possible?

As others pointed out, it is not a single price.  Each miner and each mining rig has its critical BTC price, below which keeping it on does not bring enough revenue, only increases the losses.  This critical BTC price goes up and down together with the total network power.

When the BTC price is stable, the hash rate should keep increasing as miners upgrade their hardware, in an attempt to grab a bigger slice of the constant block rewards.  Therefore, when the hash rate stagnates or decreases (as happened recently), miners must be turning off more total hashpower than what they are bringing online with the new equipment.  That means that the current price has fallen below the critical threshold of that equipment.

[esse83]

Bitcoin usage only will justify a price of $25-50. Current remittances and the rare purchases in bitcoin are just not high enough yet.

We will likely approach $100 before rebounding. Speculators will come again but not for another year.

bitcoin is not just only a currency it is also a store of value like gold

The irony can't be lost on you, right?

I've been saying the same thing for more than a year now, like a broken record, on the way to the ATH and during the bear market alike: an asset that appreciates hugely in a short time is not a very good 'store of value', and one that loses 75% of its value in a year certainly isn't one either.

This is not to say Bitcoin cannot ever become one - just that, as it is now, with pretty wild swings in either direction, it isn't, even though some of the more, hm, brave Bitcoin supporters use it as if it were one, with the obvious consequences (i.e. if they "stored" early, major gains, if they "stored" within the last year, major losses)

Oda, do you ever reveal your position? Are you long now, short, partially this or that.. would love to know how you view the coming weeks, etc. Do you believe in the long term success, any killer arguments for why it would appeal to the common man in the street?

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Ok sorry I see it has been already answered 

Can somebody share with all of us, at what price level does BTC becomes unprofitable for the miners and they start shutting off they rigs and BTC collapses completely? Is this even possible?

At current difficulty, on 20 nm process and 10 cents per kWh, I'd guess around 200, maybe a little less...

*edit*
"Is this even possible?"

No, not really. It's basically a feedback loop. unprofitable miners will turn off slowly and gradually the hashrate will follow the price, though there can be considerable lag.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

New low on finex.

[Tzupy]

New low on finex.

And Huobi.

[hd060053]

soon the flashcrash, lets see how low it goes

[NotLambchop]

Ok sorry I see it has been already answered 

Can somebody share with all of us, at what price level does BTC becomes unprofitable for the miners and they start shutting off they rigs and BTC collapses completely? Is this even possible?

At current difficulty, on 20 nm process and 10 cents per kWh, I'd guess around 200, maybe a little less...

*edit*
"Is this even possible?"

No, not really. It's basically a feedback loop. unprofitable miners will turn off slowly and gradually the hashrate will follow the price, though there can be considerable lag.

What about a more modern SHA256 altcoin?  One which is more profitable to mine & most miners switch to to make money?

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Ok sorry I see it has been already answered  

Can somebody share with all of us, at what price level does BTC becomes unprofitable for the miners and they start shutting off they rigs and BTC collapses completely? Is this even possible?

At current difficulty, on 20 nm process and 10 cents per kWh, I'd guess around 200, maybe a little less...

*edit*
"Is this even possible?"

No, not really. It's basically a feedback loop. unprofitable miners will turn off slowly and gradually the hashrate will follow the price, though there can be considerable lag.

What about a more modern SHA256 altcoin?  One which is more profitable to mine & most miners switch to to make money?

Not enough liquidity to dump I imagine.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hd060053]

soon the flashcrash, lets see how low it goes

easy predicted

[bengtåke]

Bitcoin atm:

[Wolf Rainer]

Why is this happening?

[esse83]

ask side at Huobi is reflecting the fakeness of it all lol. Even worse than BTCCHINA, but what did we really expect. Corrupt chinese exchange operators being honest? That would be something

[NotLambchop]

Death and devastation...

[oda.krell]

Bitcoin usage only will justify a price of $25-50. Current remittances and the rare purchases in bitcoin are just not high enough yet.

We will likely approach $100 before rebounding. Speculators will come again but not for another year.

bitcoin is not just only a currency it is also a store of value like gold

The irony can't be lost on you, right?

I've been saying the same thing for more than a year now, like a broken record, on the way to the ATH and during the bear market alike: an asset that appreciates hugely in a short time is not a very good 'store of value', and one that loses 75% of its value in a year certainly isn't one either.

This is not to say Bitcoin cannot ever become one - just that, as it is now, with pretty wild swings in either direction, it isn't, even though some of the more, hm, brave Bitcoin supporters use it as if it were one, with the obvious consequences (i.e. if they "stored" early, major gains, if they "stored" within the last year, major losses)

Oda, do you ever reveal your position? Are you long now, short, partially this or that.. would love to know how you view the coming weeks, etc. Do you believe in the long term success, any killer arguments for why it would appeal to the common man in the street?

Huh, never actually kept my position a secret in the past, I'm just sometimes a bit secretive with my methods I suppose I'm in USD with the trading portion of my stash, but looking for a good entry point. Cold storage untouched.

"Long term success" is a pretty wide question, depends on what you'd consider a success. But if the question is narrowed down a bit, then: yes, I still think there is a solid chance that Bitcoin will become a useful financial tool (possibly more niche though than some are comfortable with) over the course of the next years, and price is likely to react accordingly. But neither do I think this (qualified) success is guaranteed, nor do I think it will get there on a smooth path.

[NotLambchop]

Why is this happening?

You've angered Satoshi, for He is a jealous God!

[shmadz]

shmadz:  Are you still profitable as a miner at these prices? At what prices do you stop being in profit considering your electricity cost?
Serious question not trolling or anything  

If I were able to write of the capital cost of the hardware, as well as a percentage of my electricity and rent, then yeah, I think I would be able to fully cover any supposed "gains" or "income" that they might want to tax me for.

So yeah, at this price and difficulty it's pretty much a wash.

If you were to consider only electricity, consider the case of a single Jupiter.

About 3TH/s / 320288.938 th/s for the entire network gets you =0.0000093665 of the daily 3600 coins, so roughly =0.0337195536 per day

At ten cents per kWh and about 2kw times 24 hours that's like 4.80 per 0.0337195536 so about =142.350638948 per bitcoin right now...

Of course, in practice, it fluctuates wildly, but that would be the expected average, till the next difficulty change

[abercrombie]

Keep calm everyone, Cheap Coins for all!