Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Chef Ramsay]

ETA to next major rally? 

It started in mid-January.

That was the most Boss statement I've seen in recent times. Kookies to you and a pack of cigarettes plus a shot of rum.

[cmacwiz]

Hello gentlemen, we're new and are real interested in purchasing a few of your new world reserve currencies!  We got money, and can get more, too!
Have we come to the right place?

Weirdest boner I've had since watching 2 dragonflies copulate

[Cconvert2G36]

Weirdest boner I've had since watching 2 dragonflies copulate

[PeterB]

ETA to next major rally? 

It started in mid-January.

lol 

[JimboToronto]

...a mishmash of visible minorities waiting to use the ATM, many of them with heavy accents, some seeking help from the receptionist as they seem new to Bitcoin.

My guess is that many are buying bitcoins to send home to their families in their native countries.

My guess is that the people you're talking about are Asians sending money back home if, in fact, that's their motive. ...

Actually, I saw more black people with African accents than south or east Asians.

Toronto is very multicultural, a city of immigrants. Traditional white anglophone natives have been the minority for years.

We're more of a mosaic than a melting pot.

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ACAB]

Not expecting rally in 2 months. Stable prices go on.

[Lituation]

ETA to next major rally? 

It started in mid-January.

lol 

I missed it then?

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

Question: why would bear trolls be talking down the price if they still had coins to unload? They wouldn't. They would want to sell them at the highest price possible prior to the dump. Game theory would suggest their motivation is either to buy at a lower price or to cover shorts at a lower price (pretty much the same thing). The indication is that the trolls or who they represent are running out of coins to sell if they aren't out already.

The explanation that they are genuinely concerned about the welfare of "bagholders" doesn't really pass the sniff test. None of their other actions indicate that this is the case.

ALL profitable traders, whether bull or bear, help reduce volatility. A less volatile commodity is ultimately more useful and more likely to be successful. Over time, smart traders will become richer and therefor more influential while dumb traders will become less so. This process may become dwarfed by the force of new dumb traders entering the market faster than the aforementioned wealth transfer takes place, but that would suggest volatility primarily in the UPWARDS direction. Few noob traders know how to profit from a bear market or even that it is possible.

It is likely that price over time will climb, although the rate and consistency of that climb is unknown and probably unknowable. Volatility will only continue as long as there are new entrants and/or existing bad traders with money left to lose. That means we will have volatility for a long time, but it will gradually diminish, which is in fact what we are seeing.

Through it all, Bitcoin blockchain continues to be by far the most secure public ledger in the world. I see no reason to pessimistic about long term prospects, regardless of short term price drops, small and decreasing dumps and trolling by sock puppets.

[Cconvert2G36]

Bid book on finex is looking very healthy. Selling volume is weak in the face of little slippage. Forecast looks like up.

[empowering]

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

@VitalikButerin: BTW despite my increasing agreement with "blockchain tech cool, currency meh", reminder that I still believe this:

http://imgur.com/6E3jMpL

He estimates a probability of that happening is 5% as shown.

He doesn't think that will happen. It's more as "why not thing". It says that in the video.



Look he already dumped most of his Ether IPO BTCs  

[micky123]

...a mishmash of visible minorities waiting to use the ATM, many of them with heavy accents, some seeking help from the receptionist as they seem new to Bitcoin.

My guess is that many are buying bitcoins to send home to their families in their native countries.

My guess is that the people you're talking about are Asians sending money back home if, in fact, that's their motive. ...

Actually, I saw more black people with African accents than south or east Asians.

Toronto is very multicultural, a city of immigrants. Traditional white anglophone natives have been the minority for years.

We're more of a mosaic than a melting pot.

Wow,

This just lit up a thought in my mind. People who remit bitcoin from the US /UK or Canada would buy BTC at the prevailing market rates at the ATM (I assume this, maybe use one of the major exchanges as a benchmark), the moment they remit this money in BTC to folks in India or Asian countries, we do not have an atm / money exchanger who would immediately convert BTC to Fiat. Hence we put the coins up on LocalBitcoins AT A PREMIUM to market rates. This is a great income opportunity if the ones receiving the money do not need it immediately, they can put the coins up at a premium on LB and that way gain even more value for the remittance. I am sure people have already thought of this method and are milking it!

[ChartBuddy]

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[hdbuck]

[billyjoeallen]

More interesting than gold is the possibility of bitcoin becoming the world reserve currency. This is of course unlikely but possible due to it's global and globally accessible nature.

At present, there are ~10.5 trillion US dollars in existence (M2 money supply) which means if Bitcoin replaced dollars as world currency and world GDP remained constant, each bitcoin would be worth almost exactly $500,000 dollars (March 2015). If there is a 1% chance of bitcoin becoming the next world reserve currency, then EV is $5,000/BTC.

I think this is both way too optimistic and pessimistic. On the one hand, the probability of an experimental currency that is not even in beta yet replacing the most established currency since gold is rather lower than 1%. On the other hand, World GDP is constantly growing and bitcoin is useful for much more than just a reserve currency. It's use as a way to digitally sign documents, voting, time-stamping, micropayments, title transfer, payments, settlements, proof of holdings, etc ensure that reserve currency will be just one of many factors determining its utility, value and price. Bitcoin could conceivably become much more valuable than a half million dollars each even if it never becomes a reserve currency at all. It should also be worth noting that it may be replaced by a superior cryptocurrency and drop in value to that of a collector's item.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

People who remit bitcoin from the US /UK or Canada would buy BTC at the prevailing market rates at the ATM (I assume this, maybe use one of the major exchanges as a benchmark), the moment they remit this money in BTC to folks in India or Asian countries, we do not have an atm / money exchanger who would immediately convert BTC to Fiat. Hence we put the coins up on LocalBitcoins AT A PREMIUM to market rates.

There is already a bitcoin-based remittance service for the Philippines: The sender gives them USD in the US, they use the USD to buy bitcoins at the exchanges, then sell the bitcoins in the Philippines for PHP, and give the PHP to the receiver.

Not long ago they posted to /r/bitcoin calling for help, because they had run out of OTC buyers in the Philippines, and they could only sell them on the local open market BELOW the equivalent of the USD market price, hence at a loss.

That is a general problem with bitcoin-based remittance: in order to sustain the local price, there must be a return channel that buys bitcoins at the destination country, with local currency, and sells them back at the exchanges for USD.  Arbitragers could  do that, profiting from the spread between the depressed local price an the USD market; but they would soon need to convert the USD that they get at the exchanges back into the local currency.  But if the arbitragers have a way to do that and still make a profit, then a remittance service could use the same way, and undercut the bitcoin-based service...