Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ahpku]

Can anypony explain what this infographic is trying to convey?

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our English dead?


maybe not...

These SWIFT hacks seem to be increasing in frequency or they are being reported more ... either way it's just another symptom of the unreliability of the cobbled together legacy fiat system, it neither secures issuance or transfer and is simply antiquated and wholly unsuitable for the modern era.

3tps. Modernity. New Era...
The shopping mall down the street handles more transactions.

[AmazonStuff]

My guess is the halving itself will be quite non-eventful

The last time there was not much movement in price. There was just a lot of talk.


Price on the day of halving went from about $12.20 to $12.35.

Exactly one year later the price was over $1,100.

Actually, 4-5 months later it peaked at $1100 $266, but you must be aware that price doubled 2 months after halving and tripled 3 months after halving. I think that this time the change will be even faster, because mining is way to more competitive compared to 2013, miners have to dump as soon as they mine the BTC if they want to stay in game.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Actually, 4-5 months later it peaked at 1100$, but you must be aware that price doubled 2 months after halving and tripled 3 months after halving. I think that this time the change will be even faster, because mining is way to more competitive compared to 2013, miners have to dump as soon as they mine the BTC if they want to stay in game.

... think you might want to check your dates and prices there ... the last halving was Nov. 28 2012 ... it peaked at ~$266 in April 2013 ... and then peaked again at ~$1,200 in Dec. 2013.

[ahpku]

After the fact -> because of the fact.
I spilled a quart of milk in my kitchen once. A month later, BTC prices doubled.
∴ Next time I spill a quart of milk, go all in.

[AmazonStuff]

Actually, 4-5 months later it peaked at 1100$, but you must be aware that price doubled 2 months after halving and tripled 3 months after halving. I think that this time the change will be even faster, because mining is way to more competitive compared to 2013, miners have to dump as soon as they mine the BTC if they want to stay in game.

... think you might want to check your dates and prices there ... the last halving was Nov. 28 2012 ... it peaked at ~$266 in April 2013 ... and then peaked again at ~$1,200 in Dec. 2013.

Yes, my mistake, peak was at $266, thank you

[Elwar]

After the fact -> because of the fact.
I spilled a quart of milk in my kitchen once. A month later, BTC prices doubled.
∴ Next time I spill a quart of milk, go all in.

Keep us in the loop on that one.

Or do it on purpose.

Thanks.

[savetherainforest]

My guess is the halving itself will be quite non-eventful

You sure do like to smoke hopeium!

I said yesterday it might break then or maybe last night... But it seems the oscillation is at an end. And it will break soon! .. This is just the calm before the storm!

Let the markets do their things.. they need to settle in and close that gap. Then with the 2-4 trillions that disappeared from the markets in the last 7 days... 0.001% of that would be enough to restart the bubble!

[aztecminer]

My guess is the halving itself will be quite non-eventful

The last time there was not much movement in price. There was just a lot of talk.


Price on the day of halving went from about $12.20 to $12.35.

Exactly one year later the price was over $1,100.

you are forgetting to mention that btc was pumped by the gox and silk road guys . silk road got busted and the feds got gox"s coins used to pump btc stored at silk road .. and you know the rest of the story .

[BeefUsher]

Then with the 2-4 trillions that disappeared from the markets in the last 7 days... 0.001% of that would be enough to restart the bubble!

And if everyone in the world sent me a penny, they wouldn't even miss it, and I'd be a few million bucks richer.
Sadly, that's as preposterous as your idea.

[iikun]

My guess is the halving itself will be quite non-eventful

The last time there was not much movement in price. There was just a lot of talk.


Price on the day of halving went from about $12.20 to $12.35.

Exactly one year later the price was over $1,100.

Actually, 4-5 months later it peaked at $1100 $266, but you must be aware that price doubled 2 months after halving and tripled 3 months after halving. I think that this time the change will be even faster, because mining is way to more competitive compared to 2013, miners have to dump as soon as they mine the BTC if they want to stay in game.

I agree that the change will be faster, but with lower rewards larger outfits will have to dump more often to recover their costs (as you rightly point out), leading to downward pressure, not upwards. Is this the change you are talking about?

[AmazonStuff]

My guess is the halving itself will be quite non-eventful

The last time there was not much movement in price. There was just a lot of talk.


Price on the day of halving went from about $12.20 to $12.35.

Exactly one year later the price was over $1,100.

Actually, 4-5 months later it peaked at $1100 $266, but you must be aware that price doubled 2 months after halving and tripled 3 months after halving. I think that this time the change will be even faster, because mining is way to more competitive compared to 2013, miners have to dump as soon as they mine the BTC if they want to stay in game.

I agree that the change will be faster, but with lower rewards larger outfits will have to dump more often to recover their costs (as you rightly point out), leading to downward pressure, not upwards. Is this the change you are talking about?

No, I think completely opposite. Miners are already dumpers No.1, not because they love to dump, but because they have to dump in order to pay huge expenses and to do it before the competition (in order to get the better exchange rate and if possible push the competition outside the game). Their pace of dumping will be completely the same as it is now, but the amount of BTC that miners can dump will be 2x smaller then currently. Because the pace of dumping by miners is much quicker compared to 2012-2013, I expect that we will feel the positive effects on BTC price much quicker compared to 2013. Also because number of coins in circulation is now bigger, I don't expect 26x jump in price, but let's say we could expect at least 5x (I assume inverse quadratic function here). Because of human psychology and they constant urge to have new ATH, price will be 100% larger than previous ATH and will probably position itself at $3000 in 2015 2016.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland. 

Still going sideways. 3 days now. Coiling.



Calm before the storm?

[iikun]

Good morning Bitcoinland. 

Still going sideways. 3 days now. Coiling.



Calm before the storm?

The last 12 hours has been very sideways indeed, just a few dollars up & down. I can't believe that will last much longer, but hard to say in which direction...

[ahpku]

price will be 100% larger than previous ATH and will probably position itself at $3000 in 2015.

Right.
A Gentle Reminder:

Lowered Expectations



~ time passes ~

Now:

P.S. Less than 2 1 days left to pump the price to $1k. Get buyin'!
TL;DR:
77% of bitcoin enthusiasts err on the high side
13% are reasonable
10% of bitcoin enthusiasts err on the low side
Hopium bias: Over 9000!

[iikun]

My guess is the halving itself will be quite non-eventful

The last time there was not much movement in price. There was just a lot of talk.


Price on the day of halving went from about $12.20 to $12.35.

Exactly one year later the price was over $1,100.

Actually, 4-5 months later it peaked at $1100 $266, but you must be aware that price doubled 2 months after halving and tripled 3 months after halving. I think that this time the change will be even faster, because mining is way to more competitive compared to 2013, miners have to dump as soon as they mine the BTC if they want to stay in game.

I agree that the change will be faster, but with lower rewards larger outfits will have to dump more often to recover their costs (as you rightly point out), leading to downward pressure, not upwards. Is this the change you are talking about?

No, I think completely opposite. Miners are already dumpers No.1, not because they love to dump, but because they have to dump in order to pay huge expenses and to do it before the competition (in order to get the better exchange rate and if possible push the competition outside the game). Their pace of dumping will be completely the same as it is now, but the amount of BTC that miners can dump will be 2x smaller then currently. Because the pace of dumping by miners is much quicker compared to 2012-2013, I expect that we will feel the positive effects on BTC price much quicker compared to 2013. Also because number of coins in circulation is now bigger, I don't expect 26x jump in price, but let's say we could expect at least 5x (I assume inverse quadratic function here). Because of human psychology and they constant urge to have new ATH, price will be 100% larger than previous ATH and will probably position itself at $3000 in 2015.

Interesting perspective. I have no real clue as to how often large miners sell their rewards, although I would have assumed they have enough working capital to be able to wait for high prices. That could be upwards of several months of course. I suppose we shall see soon enough though!

[kehtolo]

Those are less than symbols. Top of the poll says less than 1000 if you ask me.

[yefi]

After the fact -> because of the fact.
I spilled a quart of milk in my kitchen once. A month later, BTC prices doubled.
∴ Next time I spill a quart of milk, go all in.

Keep us in the loop on that one.

Or do it on purpose.

Thanks.

Got Milk? 

[ahpku]

Those are less than symbols. Top of the poll says less than 1000 if you ask me.

Nah, Adam's just like that, probably drunk. Organic solvents. Of all the drugs to make legal

[yefi]

rpietila, out of genuine curiosity and my lack of expertise, how does Fibonacci analysis take into account psychologic factors, like the investment "memory" in picture below (which IMHO looks a lot like the 2011 crash):



What's your take on that?

Not to point out the obvious, but BTC isn't following that trajectory.

[savetherainforest]

For crying out loud... this looks like we are getting another day of prolonged nothingness!