Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[iikun]

My guess is the halving itself will be quite non-eventful

The last time there was not much movement in price. There was just a lot of talk.


Price on the day of halving went from about $12.20 to $12.35.

Exactly one year later the price was over $1,100.

Actually, 4-5 months later it peaked at $1100 $266, but you must be aware that price doubled 2 months after halving and tripled 3 months after halving. I think that this time the change will be even faster, because mining is way to more competitive compared to 2013, miners have to dump as soon as they mine the BTC if they want to stay in game.

I agree that the change will be faster, but with lower rewards larger outfits will have to dump more often to recover their costs (as you rightly point out), leading to downward pressure, not upwards. Is this the change you are talking about?

No, I think completely opposite. Miners are already dumpers No.1, not because they love to dump, but because they have to dump in order to pay huge expenses and to do it before the competition (in order to get the better exchange rate and if possible push the competition outside the game). Their pace of dumping will be completely the same as it is now, but the amount of BTC that miners can dump will be 2x smaller then currently. Because the pace of dumping by miners is much quicker compared to 2012-2013, I expect that we will feel the positive effects on BTC price much quicker compared to 2013. Also because number of coins in circulation is now bigger, I don't expect 26x jump in price, but let's say we could expect at least 5x (I assume inverse quadratic function here). Because of human psychology and they constant urge to have new ATH, price will be 100% larger than previous ATH and will probably position itself at $3000 in 2015.

Interesting perspective. I have no real clue as to how often large miners sell their rewards, although I would have assumed they have enough working capital to be able to wait for high prices. That could be upwards of several months of course. I suppose we shall see soon enough though!

[kehtolo]

Those are less than symbols. Top of the poll says less than 1000 if you ask me.

[yefi]

After the fact -> because of the fact.
I spilled a quart of milk in my kitchen once. A month later, BTC prices doubled.
∴ Next time I spill a quart of milk, go all in.

Keep us in the loop on that one.

Or do it on purpose.

Thanks.

Got Milk? 

[ahpku]

Those are less than symbols. Top of the poll says less than 1000 if you ask me.

Nah, Adam's just like that, probably drunk. Organic solvents. Of all the drugs to make legal

[yefi]

rpietila, out of genuine curiosity and my lack of expertise, how does Fibonacci analysis take into account psychologic factors, like the investment "memory" in picture below (which IMHO looks a lot like the 2011 crash):



What's your take on that?

Not to point out the obvious, but BTC isn't following that trajectory.

[savetherainforest]

For crying out loud... this looks like we are getting another day of prolonged nothingness!

[Tzupy]

Will the Chinese pumpers be able to pull a small pump, before a large dump, like 7th - 16th January?

[savetherainforest]

Will the Chinese pumpers be able to pull a small pump, before a large dump, like 7th - 16th January?

I'm not sure what you are smoking... but then it was very obvious what was happening! ... Now it was supposed to go up $1000+ .. and something wants to keep buying and keep it down. (Like fiat would be endless or some sh!t)




Stop selling God damn it!

[iikun]

For all the talk about China driving the price, the sell walls on the western exchanges are very interesting right now. It's risen 20~30 yuan on Huobi but traders on Bitfinex & Kraken too scared (or poor) to eat away the 200 BTC sell-walls. There's quite a gap opening up between the prices.

[BeefUsher]

Anyone remember volume being this tremendously huge ever? I sure don't. Is it because Brexit?
I really think we're making history, gentlemen! This is our time to shine. Our children's children will study these days in expensive private schools some day.
Exciting!

[yefi]

Anyone remember volume being this tremendously huge ever? I sure don't. Is it because Brexit?
I really think we're making history, gentlemen! This is our time to shine. Our children's children will study these days in expensive private schools some day.
Exciting!

Hopefully they won't study the Wall Observer Thread.

[savetherainforest]

Anyone remember volume being this tremendously huge ever? I sure don't. Is it because Brexit?
I really think we're making history, gentlemen! This is our time to shine. Our children's children will study these days in expensive private schools some day.
Exciting!

Hopefully they won't study the Wall Observer Thread.

I do sometimes think of all the videos/vlogs and sh!t posted on youtube, or all the forums... And it is funny to look back in time to see how retarded each generation is... but at least I see progress.

And if some apocalyptic sh!t will go down... Like the Superwave Theory... well then... these times will be the sh!t to study in schools! Cause information will be scarce if we will use books for starting fires!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Nobody talking about BIP 75 today? It's a pretty big deal.

[ImI]

we have got some serious Bitcoin ETF stuff going on right now

[European Central Bank]

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/748246224357167106

Does anyone have a clue what this entails? is it something more than a sign of life? though a sign of life is good too. as far as i can tell they've updated their filing and that's about it.

[600watt]

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/748246224357167106

Does anyone have a clue what this entails? is it something more than a sign of life? though a sign of life is good too. as far as i can tell they've updated their filing and that's about it.

if the etf was around in a matter of days, we would see rising price due to insider trading.
etf. wouldn´t that be something.

[becoin]

Stop selling God damn it!

Sorry, I need one more dip below 600 and then will join you.

[JayJuanGee]

Stop selling God damn it!

Sorry, I need one more dip below 600 and then will join you.

What are the odds?  Are you going to rely upon something like that?

Do we get below $600 or above $685 first?   

50/50? 

If you are waiting for below $600, you must believe the odds are in favor of down before up?  What are you placing it at?  70/30?  In any case sounds like gambling, and maybe even a bit against the odds, if you are hoping for under $600 before we go over $685, no?

Even if you think the odds are in your favor, those odds couldn't be better than 70/30, could they?  And even if the odds were 70/30, then wouldn't it be prudent to allocate about 30% of your available investment funds in the event that the below $600 does not happen?

[savetherainforest]

Stop selling God damn it!

Sorry, I need one more dip below 600 and then will join you.

I thought you where quoting someone who was selling or advertising the concept of God...

This reminded me of stuff being sold on the streets ... "got a little bag of styles here man!"

[Ted E. Bare]

Bitcoin Block Reward Halving Countdown:
Only 10 more days!

Reward drop ETA: Sat, 9 Jul 2016 22:18:50 GMT