Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Countdown begins.....

4 years until halving

Bitcoin to the moon! Lol. A lot of pre-halving hype and then nothing. The chineses are playing with us, they control de market.

Yeah right, another one of these superficial and foundationless assertions regarding supposed "chinese control"....

Can I just say, Bullshit?  Oh, I just did.   

[1714703096]

1714703096

[1714703096]

1714703096

[JayJuanGee]

Might as well put this thread on hiatus until after September...that's when the fun begins again 

What's so magical about September?  Something happening in September, or is that just your quasi-arbitrary technical analysis estimate?

[Kramerc]

Bitfinex shorts just got to a new ATH (expressed in USD).

Good luck boys!

[Elwar]

Might as well put this thread on hiatus until after September...that's when the fun begins again 

What's so magical about September?  Something happening in September, or is that just your quasi-arbitrary technical analysis estimate?

November halving -> April 20x price (started climbing in January)

July halving -> December 20x price (start in September)

[klondike_bar]

Network seems to be humming along great, despite mining reward cut in half / inflation getting halved.

There was some FUD about it before the halving, but it seems to be ok, blocks are being found in normal time. It seems there has been no hashrate loss worthy of mention - apparently due to the much stronger price compared to the 250 and 400 levels.

I'm also looking at this: https://slushpool.com/stats/

It seems that yesterday hashrate was going in the 85-87 range, it did a small spike prior to halving, now it's in the 82-84 range (small drop was expected). So everything seems ok, network-wise and incentive-wise.

Next diff retarget in 9 days, it has some upward momentum right now due to the spiked hashrate pre-halving, but it might be corrected to "stabilize" over that period.

Maybe you can explain why changes in the hashrate matters so much, except merely perceptions?

If you look at bitcoin's hashrate, this network is likely closer to 100x more secure than it needs to be in order to prevent attacks and to protect value.  Yeah, if the price of coins goes up 100x, then that extra security will be a good thing, but at present prices, we got a lot of surplus mining power, so it really does not matter if half of them go away, except for nontechnical perceptions, such as public opinion, no?

changes in the hashrate can affect the block time, such as a drop in hashrate making blocks a bit less frequent (lets say 12minutes if ~15% of the network leaves). In turn, full blocks get fuller and transaction fees climb a little as teres more fighting for a spot. As the fees grow, so will the incentive to mine the block. today we see ~0.7BTC/block fees - wit 12min blocks we could see >1BTC in fees - an extra ~3% incentive to compensate. If things got particularly bad with ~15min blocks, fees could reach 1.5BTC, almost a 8% added mining incentive.

I dont see it causing a doomsday - but i do expect we will see some evidence of lower block frequency over the next 10-14 days until the next adjustment. beyond that point, difficulty will change and some miners will probably return.  I expect that a lot of major facilities have a $300-500/BTC production cost right now and will not change thier hashrate. only smaller home miners and older gear like S5/SP3X will leave


as for hashrate security - the halving will disincentive any major hashrate growth in the next few years unless/until the price rises considerably.

[podyx]

Bitfinex shorts just got to a new ATH (expressed in USD).

Good luck boys!

Waiting on the short slaughter that's about to commence like

[Wolf Rainer]

Countdown begins.....

4 years until halving

Bitcoin to the moon! Lol. A lot of pre-halving hype and then nothing. The chineses are playing with us, they control de market.

Yeah right, another one of these superficial and foundationless assertions regarding supposed "chinese control"....

Can I just say, Bullshit?  Oh, I just did.   

Had you watched the Chinese markets volume of the last 2 or 3 years? They control de market, 90% of volume is from China. And this is not only about Bitcoin, all the altcoins had the same problem.

Those big and shady chinese exchanges are centralized and with low or not fee at all.

[JayJuanGee]

Might as well put this thread on hiatus until after September...that's when the fun begins again 

What's so magical about September?  Something happening in September, or is that just your quasi-arbitrary technical analysis estimate?

November halving -> April 20x price (started climbing in January)

July halving -> December 20x price (start in September)

O.k.  Makes sense. 

It's not totally out of the blue, even though a bit hysterical.   

[kobilica]

Panic buying started?

[JimboToronto]

Just got back. I see the halving came and went without a whimper (as expected) and we're most of the way back from the little pre-halving long squeeze.

Ho hum, sideways still. Time for a short squeeze now?

[600watt]

Might as well put this thread on hiatus until after September...that's when the fun begins again  

What's so magical about September?  Something happening in September, or is that just your quasi-arbitrary technical analysis estimate?

November halving -> April 20x price (started climbing in January) --> november 10x price rise (started climbing in oct.)

July halving -> December 20x price (start in September) --> may 2017 10x price rise (start rising in march 2017)

added some flavour  

[Laosai]

Panic buying started?

Panic everything.
Market is completely crazy right now, not the right time to move.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Panic buying started?

Panic everything.
Market is completely crazy right now, not the right time to move.

You mean, just stay still?



Sounds risky.

[JayJuanGee]

Network seems to be humming along great, despite mining reward cut in half / inflation getting halved.

There was some FUD about it before the halving, but it seems to be ok, blocks are being found in normal time. It seems there has been no hashrate loss worthy of mention - apparently due to the much stronger price compared to the 250 and 400 levels.

I'm also looking at this: https://slushpool.com/stats/

It seems that yesterday hashrate was going in the 85-87 range, it did a small spike prior to halving, now it's in the 82-84 range (small drop was expected). So everything seems ok, network-wise and incentive-wise.

Next diff retarget in 9 days, it has some upward momentum right now due to the spiked hashrate pre-halving, but it might be corrected to "stabilize" over that period.

Maybe you can explain why changes in the hashrate matters so much, except merely perceptions?

If you look at bitcoin's hashrate, this network is likely closer to 100x more secure than it needs to be in order to prevent attacks and to protect value.  Yeah, if the price of coins goes up 100x, then that extra security will be a good thing, but at present prices, we got a lot of surplus mining power, so it really does not matter if half of them go away, except for nontechnical perceptions, such as public opinion, no?

changes in the hashrate can affect the block time, such as a drop in hashrate making blocks a bit less frequent (lets say 12minutes if ~15% of the network leaves). In turn, full blocks get fuller and transaction fees climb a little as teres more fighting for a spot. As the fees grow, so will the incentive to mine the block. today we see ~0.7BTC/block fees - wit 12min blocks we could see >1BTC in fees - an extra ~3% incentive to compensate. If things got particularly bad with ~15min blocks, fees could reach 1.5BTC, almost a 8% added mining incentive.

I dont see it causing a doomsday - but i do expect we will see some evidence of lower block frequency over the next 10-14 days until the next adjustment. beyond that point, difficulty will change and some miners will probably return.  I expect that a lot of major facilities have a $300-500/BTC production cost right now and will not change thier hashrate. only smaller home miners and older gear like S5/SP3X will leave


as for hashrate security - the halving will disincentive any major hashrate growth in the next few years unless/until the price rises considerably.

Thanks klondike.. that is a decent explanation - though I do believe that you are describing a bit of an outlier scenario, and even if such a scenario were to play out, such scenario would likely only last for a couple of weeks at a time until the difficulty readjusts..

And, further, your scenario describes more pure business only reactions, yet even with business mindset miners, there exists some percentage of speculation, as well, and that speculation causes some hoarding of coins and some banking upon the risks of higher prices in the future.

in any event, neither of us seems to concerned about real  dire consequences no matter how this plays out, under more likely scenarios.

[kobilica]

Just got back. I see the halving came and went without a whimper (as expected) and we're most of the way back from the little pre-halving long squeeze.

Ho hum, sideways still. Time for a short squeeze now?

Yeah looks like it.. shitload of people sold but price kept rising and now they are like  ", i don't want to miss this train, buy buy buy"

[JayJuanGee]

Countdown begins.....

4 years until halving

Bitcoin to the moon! Lol. A lot of pre-halving hype and then nothing. The chineses are playing with us, they control de market.

Yeah right, another one of these superficial and foundationless assertions regarding supposed "chinese control"....

Can I just say, Bullshit?  Oh, I just did.  

Had you watched the Chinese markets volume of the last 2 or 3 years? They control de market, 90% of volume is from China. And this is not only about Bitcoin, all the altcoins had the same problem.

Those big and shady chinese exchanges are centralized and with low or not fee at all.

yes, I will concede that chinese exchanges are known for low or no fees, lot's of trading bots, and even some faked volume... and so they have been discredited for quite a while (maybe around a couple of years)..

Sure, there is some symbiosis, and there is some back, and forth in which chinese may seem to be leading, but I would not attribute correlation with causation. 

And, sure, on an individual level, you can figure out whatever indicators work for you, and in that regard, you can follow the chinese exchanges to your heart's content, but makes you look kind of silly if you are spouting out such nonsense in these forums without qualifying your observations to some extent with acknowledgements that there is quite a bit of skepticism in respects to chinese exchanges (and that is not at all meant to be a xenophobic assertion from me).. 

[ProfessionalBitsurgeon]

Yeah looks like it.. shitload of people sold but price kept rising and now they are like  ", i don't want to miss this train, buy buy buy"

By "shitloads of people" you mean roughly the same volume as yesterday, the day before, and lower than when market actually moves?

https://s32.postimg.org/el0autkkl/Capture.gif

[Andre#]

Yeah looks like it.. shitload of people sold but price kept rising and now they are like  ", i don't want to miss this train, buy buy buy"

Shitload? Looked like just one to me.

[JayJuanGee]

Might as well put this thread on hiatus until after September...that's when the fun begins again  

What's so magical about September?  Something happening in September, or is that just your quasi-arbitrary technical analysis estimate?

November halving -> April 20x price (started climbing in January) --> november 10x price rise (started climbing in oct.)

July halving -> December 20x price (start in September) --> may 2017 10x price rise (start rising in march 2017)

added some flavour  

Sure.. what the heck..

May as well go whole hawg with the additional analysis.  It may help some of us with perspective.   

[Wolf Rainer]

Countdown begins.....

4 years until halving

Bitcoin to the moon! Lol. A lot of pre-halving hype and then nothing. The chineses are playing with us, they control de market.

Yeah right, another one of these superficial and foundationless assertions regarding supposed "chinese control"....

Can I just say, Bullshit?  Oh, I just did.  

Had you watched the Chinese markets volume of the last 2 or 3 years? They control de market, 90% of volume is from China. And this is not only about Bitcoin, all the altcoins had the same problem.

Those big and shady chinese exchanges are centralized and with low or not fee at all.

yes, I will concede that chinese exchanges are known for low or no fees, lot's of trading bots, and even some faked volume... and so they have been discredited for quite a while (maybe around a couple of years)..

Sure, there is some symbiosis, and there is some back, and forth in which chinese may seem to be leading, but I would not attribute correlation with causation. 

And, sure, on an individual level, you can figure out whatever indicators work for you, and in that regard, you can follow the chinese exchanges to your heart's content, but makes you look kind of silly if you are spouting out such nonsense in these forums without qualifying your observations to some extent with acknowledgements that there is quite a bit of skepticism in respects to chinese exchanges (and that is not at all meant to be a xenophobic assertion from me).. 

OkCoin, Huobi, Bitfinex, BitStamp, BTCChina... Tell me ONE not chinese big exchange.