Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitebits]

And someone didn't want to accept my statement that bitcoin is a currency and not money so I had to explain in greater detail why:

Bitcoin is a currency not money.  If you don't agree, YOU don't understand finance.  It's a Rube Goldberg machine and nothing more.  No random bullshit made up of completely arbitary variables created by humans is money.  Money represents goods and services or the ability to do work.  It's required to be connected to some type of commodity or energy resource if you're abstracting the system away from barter, otherwise the system is easily gamed and implodes as always.

Bitcoin is not a real commodity, it's a poor immitation like some type of tranny.  The sunk cost in so called "creating" a bitcoin in the past does not transfer into delivering anything tangible into the future.  It's more like a steady state system that can catastrophically fail and vaporize all imaginary "wealth" attached to it at any time - the glaring trait of all currencies past and future.  One of the main reasons the noble metals are valued as money (gold and silver) are the anti-corrosive properties to defeat time itself, which guarantees you the ability to transfer that unit of account from the past to future, UNLIKE bitcoin.

The distinction between money and currency is one that is blurry and arbitrary.

Many tend to think of money as something that is tied to a physical commodity and everything else as currency but that is not really accurate.

The reality is that all money/currency is an arbitrary construct created by man to facilitate trade and savings. Paper currencies have a long track record of failure. This failure is due to the inherent flaws of mankind rather then a fundamental problem with paper money.

We choose to embrace things like fractional reserve lending, defect spending, and unfounded entitlements all of which lead to fiscal instability and undermine the currency system leading to eventual failure.

Gold and Silver are simply attempts to take human weakness out of the picture by tying the concept of money to something that cannot be easily forged or mass produced. This works to a degree but it historically also ultimately fails to restrain us from eventually debasing and destroying the currency system. We see this in Rome and also in our recent past as we were not long ago on a gold standard.

Bitcoin is a new attempt to separate destructive human weakness from a money/currency system. The new mechanism is decentralization and computer algorithm to replace flawed human judgment. If it will succeed long term remains to be seen but we know paper currency consistently and repeatedly fails and we know precious metal currency repeatedly fails so now we will learn how well digital currency works.

How this scaling debate plays out will be important to watch. The 95% requirement for implementation as seen in some of the Bitcoin update proposals is a very wise threshold to use. If Bitcoin ever becomes a simple voting mechanism where 51% of hashing power is able to implement widely accepted changes to the protocol over the objections of the other 49% then human error has returned to the forefront. Bitcoin would then become the same system we already have.  A complex fiat voting system.

Thanks for your write-up, interesting read.

[tk3609]

Since we didnt see any retrace over the weekend, I wouldnt be suprised at all, if bull trap awaited us during tommorrow or day after that. It wouldnt be the first time we decide to take a plunge on monday...

Looks like indeed we have a correction going.

[JayJuanGee]

Since we didnt see any retrace over the weekend, I wouldnt be suprised at all, if bull trap awaited us during tommorrow or day after that. It wouldnt be the first time we decide to take a plunge on monday...

Looks like indeed we have a correction going.

Looks like indeed you are reading this whole situation out of context.

When Okurkabinladin wrote his post, the price was floating around $1080 $1180 (Correction).  Accordingly, the price went up to nearly $1130 and then retraced back down to $1115.

That is hardly a "correction"

When ever you get a decent size upward price movement, you also will find pauses in the upwards movement and you will also find retraces of some or all of the movement;  however those retracements do not rise to the level of a "correction" because they are mere retracements of a recent upwards price movement that does not even rule out the possibility that the price is going to continue its upwards trajectory.

In other words for the moment we are experiencing upwards movement and a pause and nothing near a "correction."... not yet, anyhow...

A proper "correction" would be price plunges that at least retrace the whole gamut of the price recent price increase plus adding an additional percentage on the origination price point..

[HI-TEC99]

Since we didnt see any retrace over the weekend, I wouldnt be suprised at all, if bull trap awaited us during tommorrow or day after that. It wouldnt be the first time we decide to take a plunge on monday...

Looks like indeed we have a correction going.

It could go up, down, or sideways. Some posters here are saying it will go up, others are saying it will go down, but nobody's saying it will go sideways. As the minority is usually right I'll speculate on it going sideways.

[tk3609]

When Okurkabinladin wrote his post, the price was floating around $1180.  Accordingly, the price went up to nearly $1130 and then retraced back down to $1115.

Where are you getting those prices from? He wrote that 10 hours ago.

When ever you get a decent size upward price movement, you also will find pauses in the upwards movement and you will also find retraces of some or all of the movement;  however those retracements do not rise to the level of a "correction" because they are mere retracements of a recent upwards price movement that does not even rule out the possibility that the price is going to continue its upwards trajectory.

I know that he ment 100$ drop in 5 minutes and a double bottom, to clear things out. Look that in January you also didn't double bottom, we just wen't for an ATH.

You also assume that this retracement is over, I think its just a begening.

It could go up, down, or sideways. Some posters here are saying it will go up, others are saying it will go down, but nobody's saying it will go sideways. As the minority is usually right I'll speculate on it going sideways.

And you are probably right, I'm not predicting doom scenarios just a healthy 40-50$ drop.

[becoin]

And someone didn't want to accept my statement that bitcoin is a currency and not money so I had to explain in greater detail why:

Bitcoin is a currency not money.  If you don't agree, YOU don't understand finance.  It's a Rube Goldberg machine and nothing more.  No random bullshit made up of completely arbitary variables created by humans is money.  Money represents goods and services or the ability to do work.  It's required to be connected to some type of commodity or energy resource if you're abstracting the system away from barter, otherwise the system is easily gamed and implodes as always.

Bitcoin is not a real commodity, it's a poor immitation like some type of tranny.  The sunk cost in so called "creating" a bitcoin in the past does not transfer into delivering anything tangible into the future.  It's more like a steady state system that can catastrophically fail and vaporize all imaginary "wealth" attached to it at any time - the glaring trait of all currencies past and future.  One of the main reasons the noble metals are valued as money (gold and silver) are the anti-corrosive properties to defeat time itself, which guarantees you the ability to transfer that unit of account from the past to future, UNLIKE bitcoin.

The distinction between money and currency is one that is blurry and arbitrary.

No. The distinction between money and currency is quite clear!

Money is the monetary form itself. It is the "thing" we use as money. Its value doesn't depend on a single body or entity safeguarding its value.

Currency is the certificate that certifies you have money kept in a storage somewhere else. It is a storage receipt payable to bearer on demand. The storage owner/keeper has to take care that all issued certificates are backed by adequate quantity of the "thing". In different countries and during different times this certificate was different. It had different properties, attributes, and requisites to avoid dishonest storage owners/keepers and counterfeiting. The latest reliable certificate with most current properties, attributes, and requisites was most widely used for transactions. Hence, the newly coined word "currency" describing current certificate in circulation.

If we use LN we'll be using bitcoin not as money but as currency. Using currency instead of money is riskier but much cheaper. It is a trade-off. People will have a choice depending on their willingness to take small risk in exchange for much lower tx fees. And that is GOOD!  

[Searing]

Well ...kinda on topic in that the last 2 years I've mined LTC to BTC.....now that is being tested let me tell you.....
If I continue to do so...really,really could be socking the old BTC away let me tell you But will hold LTC a bit
yet till I move to BTC....when it rains gold you turn your umbrella upside down and do not move till it is full

so fine..NOW if LTC as it has done in the past ...maybe this is a signal for folk to pump BTC price...well that also would be nice ...say $1,800 usd btc pump in the
same manner as LTC....ie prime each others crypto pump....

(hell as long as I prayed to the LTC asic gods when LTC was $4.15 usd and the ratio was .003 ltc to btc .what the heck ..I'll try it here too)

but damn.....never figured unicorn prayers falling from the sky actually will work (will now try same for btc price)

sheesh.... (crypto what a silly hobby)

[Iranus]

Since we didnt see any retrace over the weekend, I wouldnt be suprised at all, if bull trap awaited us during tommorrow or day after that. It wouldnt be the first time we decide to take a plunge on monday...

Looks like indeed we have a correction going.

It could go up, down, or sideways. Some posters here are saying it will go up, others are saying it will go down, but nobody's saying it will go sideways. As the minority is usually right I'll speculate on it going sideways.

Spot on.  It's been near sideways for a good couple of days with a slight uptrend and I would say that bulls and bears have pretty equal strength right now.  Even the slight fall of ETH and extreme fall of DASH and other altcoins won't stop the FUD and the high fees/confirmation times.

[york780]

Is this a altcoin tpic? fine hah. Anyway DASH -50%, back to $50, going to $20. RIP dash. Time to rek Ripple next.

[petahashminer]

megaupload is on the way !!

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/848731692638453761


is this gentleman ?

[Ted E. Bare]

Halving pump ---> New Year's pump ---> ETF pump ---> Megaupload pump?

I'M READY

[Arcteryx]

megaupload is on the way !!

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/848731692638453761


is this gentleman ?

So this is the reason for the sudden increase in price over the last 24 hours?
I was wondering what was making it go up so quickly.

[Coinnosaurus]

Megaupload pump?

I'M READY

during the last 2 years this is the third attempt I guess

So this is the reason for the sudden increase in price over the last 24 hours?
I was wondering what was making it go up so quickly.

nope , pump started a lot sooner than the announcement

[Vhern]

Mexico announced a bill saying "Bitcoin is officially viewed as a digital asset to Mexican exchanges"
https://news.bitcoin.com/mexico-bill-bitcoin-game-changer/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Will this designation improve or hinder bitcoin's growth in the long run?

[chichidori]

Mexico announced a bill saying "Bitcoin is officially viewed as a digital asset to Mexican exchanges"
https://news.bitcoin.com/mexico-bill-bitcoin-game-changer/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Will this designation improve or hinder bitcoin's growth in the long run?

It is a good publication for bitcoin but some may not accept it or even oppose it, maybe in the long run it may but people are afraid of changes once in a while.

[droizs]

Megaupload pump?

I'M READY

during the last 2 years this is the third attempt I guess

So this is the reason for the sudden increase in price over the last 24 hours?
I was wondering what was making it go up so quickly.

nope , pump started a lot sooner than the announcement

Reason for the pump

[Paashaas]

megaupload is on the way !!

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/848731692638453761


is this gentleman ?

I'm not falling into that hype again, i'll see how it rolls out. I thought Kim was in jail and could not working on Mega2.0 project anymore

[CoinCube]

The distinction between money and currency is one that is blurry and arbitrary.

No. The distinction between money and currency is quite clear!

Money is the monetary form itself. It is the "thing" we use as money. Its value doesn't depend on a single body or entity safeguarding its value.

Currency is the certificate that certifies you have money kept in a storage somewhere else. It is a storage receipt payable to bearer on demand. The storage owner/keeper has to take care that all issued certificates are backed by adequate quantity of the "thing". In different countries and during different times this certificate was different. It had different properties, attributes, and requisites to avoid dishonest storage owners/keepers and counterfeiting. The latest reliable certificate with most current properties, attributes, and requisites was most widely used for transactions. Hence, the newly coined word "currency" describing current certificate in circulation.

If we use LN we'll be using bitcoin not as money but as currency. Using currency instead of money is riskier but much cheaper. It is a trade-off. People will have a choice depending on their willingness to take small risk in exchange for much lower tx fees. And that is GOOD!  

Your are correct of course that there is a huge difference between something secured by a single body and something that is not subject to such counterparty risk but I would again note that your line in the sand here is somewhat arbitrary.

What if you have an asset that is secured not by one body but two or five or 50? Is it money or currency? What we are dealing with here is a spectrum not an absolute. There was a time when pure copper bars based on their weight in copper was money in some countries.

The more distributed your risk is and the less dependent on a single actor the more solid and safe your money/currency is provided it has solid fundamentals and limited supply. Copper as money failed due to eventual oversupply of the metal. Physical ownership of metal has a counterparty risk as well as does bitcoin.

Cryptocurrency is not a real store of value, though.  It is basically at the same level as fiat on Exter's pyramid.  Wealth is derived from resources and labor.  Cryptocurrency will always be the bad money driving out good money compared to an actual resource/commodity based currency whether it's gold, silver, oil, or some other substance.  The problem that it's very difficult to remove counterparty risk on things like uranium and oil always switch roles back to metals such as gold and silver instead.
...

The difference is that cryptocurrency has the potential to someday climb beyond fiat beyond gold even on Exter's pyramid.

Gold can essentially be thought of as an eternal partially anonymous POW blockchain. It is mined and mining requires work limiting its supply and allowing it to be used as a store of value. Gold does have counterparty risk. The counterparty is society. The purchaser of gold takes the risk that the gold network (the network of individuals in society willing to buy and own gold) will continue to exist. Governments play a role here in that they have the power through their actions to strengthen or weaken this network but they lack the ability to destroy it entirely. The gold network has existed for thousands of years it has also survived multiple government attempts to eliminate it so the counterparty risk is lower than with anything else that exists.

To displace gold cryptocurrency would need to have a counterparty risk that was lower than gold.
This would require
A) Demonstration of enternal nature currency would need to hold its value over several generations
B) Demonstration of resilience cryptocurrency network it would need to show its ability to survive outlast and not be broken or destroyed by hostile government action.

The jury is still out on whether bitcoin can meet these very high hurdles. However, even if bitcoin fails it seems almost inevitable that something will come along someday that can meet them.

[tk3609]

megaupload is on the way !!

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/848731692638453761


is this gentleman ?

I'm not falling into that hype again, i'll see how it rolls out. I thought Kim was in jail and could not working on Mega2.0 project anymore

Kim has very high accuracy of writing bullish bitcoin tweets right before a dump

[STT]

There was a time when pure copper bars based on their weight in copper were money in some countries.

This isnt ancient history as the Chinese recently used copper as a proxy instead of yuan, mostly between construction firms it was considered superior due to its utility in the trade.   They were actually prevented from continuing by government

Good price action leading back to 1150.  If price can confirm late march highs as its lows in April thats a positive going forward, possibly 2017 can be positive overall rather just volatility up and back down again