Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

This could well have been written about me.

I'm not saying that it is always absolutely wrong to have 90% of your assets in BTC or whatever, but it should be because you are intentionally choosing to do so, not because the price got away from you and you never really considered that you now have 90% of your wealth riding on one thing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7gi55s/dont_invest_recklessly/

I'm spooked again.

So, theymos is now advising those of us who went 50% in on Bitcoin, and are now nearly 90% in due to a rising Bitcoin, to sell 45% of our BTC stash, in order to return to the initial BTC/total investment of 50%.

I respect him, but can't help but wonder if that is a good piece of advice... I feel I should have invested more in BTC when I could. But I guess that's the greedy side of me talking. Will see how things play out...

I also don't really know what he is saying, except perhaps that we need to be  making conscious assessments about what are doing and how we are allocating our assets and whether we may be in a decent position to be considering reallocation.

Surely, I doubt that you need to have anything near an allocation of 50% initially in order to be approaching 90% currently and based on the exorbitant extent of our recent price appreciation(s).

I can look at my own initial goal of allocating around 10% that ended up being closer to 15%, and even though I lost a decent amount of coin through a hacker(s), I still am running numbers very close to 90%, depending on how I frame my investment.  

On a personal level, I feel fairly cognizant about the personal appropriateness of the approach that I am taking, and surely I appreciate the concept of diversification and reallocation too.  i also appreciate the concept of selling on the way up and buying on the way down, which I continue to believe to be a really decent vehicle that could sufficiently address allocation and diversification concerns and allow what might appear to be more risky/lopsided BTC allocation levels.

I know that each of us develop some strategies here, too, and I am thinking about Bob, too... .. I mean sometimes guys give us ideas about the quantity of their holdings, and sure, he is saying that he is diversifying by cashing out some of his Bcash, and stuff like that, and is that level of cashing out enough?  Should not each of us be cashing out a little bit along the way.. just in case (without making any BIG ASS cashing outs?)  Another thing that Bob said, is where is he going to put his money that is better than BTC.. and in that regard, just having it in cash is not better, but it does help to prepare for BTC dips, even knowing that long term cash is not going to hold its value, but for a year or less, it is not a major price to pay to hold some cash, just in case for buying BTC dips, no?

Thanks for replying JJG. I read the entire reddit post by theymos, but just can't follow his advice. I'm not a trader like you, and have been studying the posts here, in order to slowly pick up on trading methods. I have nowhere near the amount of BTC that veterans here like you, Jimbo or BLB have, so for me it's an "all or nothing" game. If I sell almost half of my stash, I'm effectively reducing the chances of financial independence. I will ride the wave and let it take me where it may.

I largely agree with you.    I was going through some of the thought process myself, and I am not really sure if the amount matters, but instead the opportunity to consider these kinds of matters in order that you are making an informed and personally appropriate choice. 

Although I do think that it could matter the extent to which if your whole BTC investment went "poof" then where would you be.

However, the odds of the whole thing going "poof" don't seem too likely. 

Personally, I have been skimming my fund for a couple of years  (ever since $250) and folding the money back in.

Yet, I am not really sure what I would do if the prices dropped below $2k or $1k?  I might use some of that slush money that I accumulated to buy BTC, perhaps?  My buy back plan has gotten so fucking much stronger, especially in our last price surge after the mid-September 40% correction.  That 40% correction caused me to create a stronger plan, and coupled by the fucking crazy ass extra ordinary nearly 4x price improvement from mid-September, I have created buy orders that go further down the chain and more money in my reserves for it BTC prices overshoot further downwardly from those greater extremes that are now within my preparations.

So I feel that my BTC portfolio is in really great shape and even better prepared for either price direction, especially after the mid-September price correction.

[JayJuanGee]

I wouldn't be surprised if Theymos sold a bunch of his btc stash before the 2x threat.  I know at least one other prominent early adopter who completely cashed out.

Theymos might be hoping the price comes back down so he gives advice as such to make himself feel better. I don't know why he otherwise would feel compelled to advise people. Why does he care? This is free market. Let people live and learn.

That is possible.  I did notice a few of his seemingly bearish posts after that, and so I think that he had been expecting more bearish price movements than what actually happened.. Does that affect what he says, sure probably.

[luckygenough56]

Bitcoin trading rule 56 :

if it doesn't happen on friday, wait for Monday  

[TERA2]

The craziest things used to happen on weekends, usually due to gox. Sunday was a regular dump day.

[JayJuanGee]

Actually, I agree with you, but the owner of a smaller level of assets frequently wants to catch up and gets anxious and then starts to make BIG ASS mistakes..

Probably the most important point in your response. Perhaps the most important part of having a strategy, is that you have a mechanism for dealing with both market boredom (price in a tiny range for days on end) and market terror (to the point where your brain has a hard time catching up with the level of change).

The strategy is methodical. It will never yield results as good as the uber-trader who somehow 'knows' what point the lows are, and 'knows' what point the highs are. But it will always be positive. ( I really fee that uber-trader is just lucky, and everyone's luck runs out some time).

I'll dig through my post history, and find the clearest to day exposition of the process. Just for you. Well, you and everyone else reading.

Hahahhahahaha..   Everyone.  I am in agreement with a bear!!!!!    

I already know that bears eat people... so even though you are being nice... I am going to keep a little bit of bear spray prepared, just in case you are not nice anymore.  Otherwise, I have some honey.  Winnie the pooh likes honey, and I am of the belief that you like honey too, at least enough that I can distract you with it while I run away.  

I'll dig through my post history, and find the clearest to day exposition of the process. Just for you. Well, you and everyone else reading.

OK, I found the post. It is a skeleton which assumes some previous knowledge, but provides the basics for those interested.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg22405941#msg22405941

Interestingly, I needed to link to a post directly before my post of interest. I still see the post, but am unable to link to it. More overzealous moderation? Someone erasing my previous history? I dunno.

In case I am shadowbanned - JJG - here is your response that quotes the most salient portion:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg22411843#msg22411843

Sure it is possible that some of "The Powers That BE" (TPTB) could be "out to get you" even when you are providing what could be useful to both bears and non-bears... and even daughters and non-daughters.... Go figure.

[bitserve]

I wouldn't be surprised if Theymos sold a bunch of his btc stash before the 2x threat.  I know at least one other prominent early adopter who completely cashed out.

Theymos might be hoping the price comes back down so he gives advice as such to make himself feel better. I don't know why he otherwise would feel compelled to advise people. Why does he care? This is free market. Let people live and learn.

There are reasons to give that advice to other people that are beyond altruism while at the same time not being just purely greed:

When many people is overinvested in a specific asset the risk of BIG crashes rises exponentially. That is bad for everyone... for everyone long I mean no matter if they are big or small holders.

That's exactly the reason why some famous phrases like "When I see  my driver talking about stocks, I know it's time to sell".

I am sure Theymos don't really want the price to go down.... only to rise healthy and solidly. If that means a temporary dip caused by people rebalancing their Bitcoin exposure, so be it... It will be better on the long run.

[realsteelboy]

Bitcoin is boring me to death right now 

[Elwar]

Bitcoin is boring me to death right now 

I agree!!11,111!!

[bitcoinPsycho]

what is the current ath? we must be close to another

[HairyMaclairy]

Good to remember things like this in the right light. The market is a lot more mature now. Just as volatile, I should think.

I don’t think we’ll ever see a 96% crash again (the sole exception being a hidden flaw in the bitcoin protocol).  A 40% crash is going to be a “big deal”.

You go from pessimistic to optimistic to pessimistic.. currently seeming optimistic.. ?.

We had a 40% drop in mid September from $4980 to $2790, and then we had a 30% drop a couple of weeks ago from $7,888 to $5,555, and then we just had nearly a 27% drop from $11,395 to $9,000.

I personally think that a 60% to 80% drop is possible, especially if we look at spike amounts, and perhaps, it could be sustained at somewhere above 60% - however, it does not seem that we get there in the near future based on current BTC price market dynamics, and gosh, I am not sure how much we go up before a BIG ASS crash and even sustained downward manipulation becomes realistic.. so yeah, maybe we go up to $30k first, or perhaps $80k...

We cannot really know the amount that we are going to go UP until we go there and even how long it might take to get to the UP point.  For example, I think that if all of a sudden, within less than a week, we were to do a 3x in the current BTC price, then that would likely NOT be sustainable and perhaps in that kind of situation, then we may get more than a 60%, and even perhaps spikes down to a 80% correction?

So, my point is that I would not rule out these kinds of BIG ASS corrections, even though in the current market situation, any such correction is not likely to get anywhere close to 40%, because we just had one, within the past week, that took us down nearly 27% and we "recovered" quite nicely.. so having another 40% seems a bit preposterous.. absent some major successful FUD or something like that.

I’m a harder bull than many in this thread.  I have a 5 year price forecast of US$150 - 500k.  The reason is because I believe that Bitcoin has been mischaracterised as an asset when it is really a financial instrument.  In the period 2000 - 2007 the global value of CDOs rose from $69 billion to $1.7 trillion.  Bitcoin could easily do the same except it is starting from a higher base and has the potential for much greater capital inflows and higher market cap because it is also traded by retail investors.   So I put the market cap at $2 trillion to $5 trillion after 5 years.  This is without any disruption of the existing market system - ie the value of the US dollar remains much the same.  I have assumed for these purposes that the number of generated, non-lost, non-dust Bitcoins is somewhere less than 12 million.

I come off as a bear sometimes as I am a big fan of Nicholas Taleb in the book The Black Swan.  Looking for black swans is a bit of a hobby.

In any event, come what may, I enjoy the company of everyone on this thread as we share this historic journey.

[Searing]

Yeah, hard for me to be completely calm on a price correction of say 30% down. I mean it has been a rise from 1K btc in Jan 2017

to $11,137.93 as I type this. BTC has gone up 11x w/o adding BCH and BTG ..as an aside, too boot!

As someone, who started mining crypto in 2013, well, the acceleration can give one doubts, don't ya know

edit:

Someone would have told me this price in Jan 2017, I would have 'slug'd them' for messing with my head.

[HairyMaclairy]

what is the current ath? we must be close to another

$11485 on Gdax.  Mentally it feels like we are still someways off that to me.  

[Coinnosaurus]

lol epic breakout

[fragout]

To me, we are coiling up for another big move upwards. The pressure is building.
Bitstamp now has $140 million on the buy side with only 2100 BTC on the sell side.

[TERA2]

Again...

http://whatbubble.ytmnd.com/

[ivomm]

BTC


In the meantime:

[JimboToronto]

New ATH at Stamp. That didn't take too long after the correction from $1.14k to $9k.

[HairyMaclairy]

what is the current ath? we must be close to another

$11485 on Gdax.  Mentally it feels like we are still someways off that to me.  

This comment has aged poorly. In 10 fucking minutes.

[HairyMaclairy]

To me, we are coiling up for another big move upwards. The pressure is building.
Bitstamp now has $140 million on the buy side with only 2100 BTC on the sell side.

10 points to Gryffindor.

[orpington]

what is the current ath? we must be close to another

$11485 on Gdax.  Mentally it feels like we are still someways off that to me.  

This comment has aged poorly. In 10 fucking minutes.

hilarious!