Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Abandon]

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Low volatility is not a neccesary requirement of a currency. It will take a very long time for Bitcoin to become non-volatile. I suggest you get used to it. It's far better to hold something extremely volatile which is continuously increasing in value than something non-volatile which is decreasing.
A minimum market cap is not neccesary for goals such a Apple accepting Bitcoin. The market cap will automatically adapt to satisfy the new demand.

Investment-wise, I agree with you, but if you are a company that needs to pay its bills (in fiat), and you don't have a fuckload of capital reserves, you don't want to touch something extremely volatile, because you risk going bankrupt.  Bigger market cap should smooth out the effect on price of influx and outflux of capital, reducing volatility and resulting in being better suitable for companies.

[NewLiberty]

M-Pesa seems more like a rivaling currency than anything else. It already has millions of transactions daily and growing fast, bitcoin is becoming a gamblers paradise.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa
.

i wonder how high the fees are?

Users are charged a small fee for sending and withdrawing money using the service.

You pay a fee of R2.45 each time you transfer money to another registered m-pesa customer
(About USD$0.25)


There are over 2000 m-pesa outlets. You’ll find them at:
Vodacom shops
Vodacom 4U stores
spaza shops
community containers
all Nedbank branches
selected retailers
anywhere you see the Vodacom m-pesa outlet sign

http://www.vodacom.com/personal/services/m-pesa/aboutm-pesa

[manfred]

M-Pesa seems more like a rivaling currency than anything else. It already has millions of transactions daily and growing fast, bitcoin is becoming a gamblers paradise.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa
.

i wonder how high the fees are?

Users are charged a small fee for sending and withdrawing money using the service.

It will cost you Ksh3 to send any amount between Ksh10 and Ksh50
33 Kenian shillings if u sent between 501 and 5000 shillings
http://www.safaricom.co.ke/personal/m-pesa/m-pesa-services-tariffs/tariffs/tariff-faqs

[Its About Sharing]

M-Pesa seems more like a rivaling currency than anything else. It already has millions of transactions daily and growing fast, bitcoin is becoming a gamblers paradise.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa
.

i wonder how high the fees are?

Users are charged a small fee for sending and withdrawing money using the service.

The most recent thing I heard though is the government is going to levy a new tax on it or something like that.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

M-Pesa seems more like a rivaling currency than anything else. It already has millions of transactions daily and growing fast, bitcoin is becoming a gamblers paradise.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa
.

i wonder how high the fees are?

Users are charged a small fee for sending and withdrawing money using the service.

The most recent thing I heard though is the government is going to levy a new tax on it or something like that.

Indeed, single point of failure much?

[wachtwoord]

Low volatility is not a neccesary requirement of a currency. It will take a very long time for Bitcoin to become non-volatile. I suggest you get used to it. It's far better to hold something extremely volatile which is continuously increasing in value than something non-volatile which is decreasing.
A minimum market cap is not neccesary for goals such a Apple accepting Bitcoin. The market cap will automatically adapt to satisfy the new demand.

Investment-wise, I agree with you, but if you are a company that needs to pay its bills (in fiat), and you don't have a fuckload of capital reserves, you don't want to touch something extremely volatile, because you risk going bankrupt.  Bigger market cap should smooth out the effect on price of influx and outflux of capital, reducing volatility and resulting in being better suitable for companies.

Completely true. People were suggesting it is a neccessaty, it's not. I don' believe Apple will jump in until very late in the game because they are a dinosaur. Nothing real is stopping them though. This is the exact reason why people should calm down and wait for the dominos to fall.

I think I'm enjoying the journey almost as much as I'll love the end result. Sometimes I can't really wait for it as well

[MonadTran]

It's funny all you fags trying to sway people into buying while we're clearly still in a downwards spiral. There's no reason for bitcoin to go up right now besides speculation, and that has already been done the last few months, too soon for another bubble.

On the other hand, there is no reason for Bitcoin to go down right now, besides speculation.

Actually, almost any act of trading, or hoarding anything, can be labeled as "speculation". You're selling bitcoins? Speculator! Buying bitcoins? Speculator! Holding bitcoins? Speculator (you are probably hoping the price would go up). Buying gold? Speculator! Selling bonds? Speculator! Holding dollars? Speculator (by holding dollars, you are betting against gold, Bitcoin, and Chilean peso).

The only real way to avoid being called a speculator, is to spend all of your savings right away, and go into debt to buy a new house, or a yacht, or a Ferrari. Now, all of a sudden, you become an honest hard-working person, struggling to repay the debt. Not like all those speculators.

[wachtwoord]

It's funny all you fags trying to sway people into buying while we're clearly still in a downwards spiral. There's no reason for bitcoin to go up right now besides speculation, and that has already been done the last few months, too soon for another bubble.

On the other hand, there is no reason for Bitcoin to go down right now, besides speculation.

Actually, almost any act of trading, or hoarding anything, can be labeled as "speculation". You're selling bitcoins? Speculator! Buying bitcoins? Speculator! Holding bitcoins? Speculator (you are probably hoping the price would go up). Buying gold? Speculator! Selling bonds? Speculator! Holding dollars? Speculator (by holding dollars, you are betting against gold, Bitcoin, and Chilean peso).

The only real way to avoid being called a speculator, is to spend all of your savings right away, and go into debt to buy a new house, or a yacht, or a Ferrari. Now, all of a sudden, you become an honest hard-working person, struggling to repay the debt. Not like all those speculators.

Buying a net-net such as Graham advocates is hardly speculating.

[MonadTran]

Buying a net-net such as Graham advocates is hardly speculating.

net-net, like in "valuing a company based on tangible assets"? Well, you are definitely betting that those tangible assets are not going down, and you probably want to profit from that buy, do you? Speculator.

[wachtwoord]

Buying a net-net such as Graham advocates is hardly speculating.

net-net, like in "valuing a company based on tangible assets"? Well, you are definitely betting that those tangible assets are not going down, and you probably want to profit from that buy, do you? Speculator.

Speculation according to Graham is buying something because you think others will pay more for it in the future irrespective from its value (finding a bigger fool). Investing is buying something because its value is higher than its price. If no one ever offers you morr for it that's fine as you'll simply keep the asset.

I use this definition.

[Rampion]

Well, who bought to play this bounce?

Bought myself a little at 53€ to follow the old lucif, placed an ask at 65€ to close that position ASAP but it wasn't filled, for now I lowered it at 62€ish because this suckers rally don't give me any confidence at all.

[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

Well, who bought to play this bounce?

Bought myself a little at 53€ to follow the old lucif, placed an ask at 65€ to close that position ASAP but it wasn't filled, for now I lowered it at 62€ish because this suckers rally don't give me any confidence at all.

I was fighting with myself to buy at the bottom of that red candle two days ago but I couldn't do it. I would have put a sell order in at 10 above it and it probably would have gotten filled.
I called 3 of the bounces on the way down as well and also didn't play any of them. Think I should start playing with 20% of my fiat...

Oh well, at least I'm happy I got out at 107 ish.

BTW - a little sell off just happened, nice timing...

[MonadTran]

Investing is buying something because its value is higher than its price.

The value to whom? At which point in time? Who measures the value? To me, investing is like speculation in slo' motion. Like, when you are investing, you actually think before you buy stuff, while day trading is a different kind of speculation, where you don't think much, it's more like you feel the mood of the market.

I happened to live in a country where any kind of retail business was called "speculation", too. You buy wholesale, you sell it item-wise for more - speculator! Sounds ridiculous, but, if you think of it, even the word "speculator" is a bit ridiculous. It doesn't add any understanding of the situation whatsoever.

If no one ever offers you morr for it that's fine as you'll simply keep the asset.

But then, if you don't need the asset, you're a speculator that just lost his money, and if you do need the asset, you are a consumer, not an investor.

[Rampion]

Well, who bought to play this bounce?

Bought myself a little at 53€ to follow the old lucif, placed an ask at 65€ to close that position ASAP but it wasn't filled, for now I lowered it at 62€ish because this suckers rally don't give me any confidence at all.

I was fighting with myself to buy at the bottom of that red candle two days ago but I couldn't do it. I would have put a sell order in at 10 above it and it probably would have gotten filled.
I called 3 of the bounces on the way down as well and also didn't play any of them. Think I should start playing with 20% of my fiat...

Oh well, at least I'm happy I got out at 107 ish.

BTW - a little sell off just happened, nice timing...

Well, didn't have the confidence to buy with as much as 20%, much less in reality, only for the lulz...

[wachtwoord]

Investing is buying something because its value is higher than its price.

The value to whom? At which point in time? Who measures the value? To me, investing is like speculation in slo' motion. Like, when you are investing, you actually think before you buy stuff, while day trading is a different kind of speculation, where you don't think much, it's more like you feel the mood of the market.

I happened to live in a country where any kind of retail business was called "speculation", too. You buy wholesale, you sell it item-wise for more - speculator! Sounds ridiculous, but, if you think of it, even the word "speculator" is a bit ridiculous. It doesn't add any understanding of the situation whatsoever.

If no one ever offers you morr for it that's fine as you'll simply keep the asset.

But then, if you don't need the asset, you're a speculator that just lost his money, and if you do need the asset, you are a consumer, not an investor.

The value of all future cash flows discounted to present day plus liquidation value.

In a true net net you buy a company with more net cash than you paid for it.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

It's funny all you fags trying to sway people into buying while we're clearly still in a downwards spiral. There's no reason for bitcoin to go up right now besides speculation, and that has already been done the last few months, too soon for another bubble.

On the other hand, there is no reason for Bitcoin to go down right now, besides speculation.

Actually, almost any act of trading, or hoarding anything, can be labeled as "speculation". You're selling bitcoins? Speculator! Buying bitcoins? Speculator! Holding bitcoins? Speculator (you are probably hoping the price would go up). Buying gold? Speculator! Selling bonds? Speculator! Holding dollars? Speculator (by holding dollars, you are betting against gold, Bitcoin, and Chilean peso).

The only real way to avoid being called a speculator, is to spend all of your savings right away, and go into debt to buy a new house, or a yacht, or a Ferrari. Now, all of a sudden, you become an honest hard-working person, struggling to repay the debt. Not like all those speculators.

Yeah, the subjective difference between an investment and a speculation is both the time you are willing to hold on to it, and the expected volatility, that's about it in my opinion.  Plus speculator has a negative connotation, while investor sounds good. It's more about the definition you use or finding the average context in which the words are used than anything else.

[Frozenlock]

Well, who bought to play this bounce?

Bought myself a little at 53€ to follow the old lucif, placed an ask at 65€ to close that position ASAP but it wasn't filled, for now I lowered it at 62€ish because this suckers rally don't give me any confidence at all.

That's why there's a right shoulder. 

I'm still waiting to see how this plays out.

[Ultraviolet]

On the other hand, there is no reason for Bitcoin to go down right now, besides speculation.

That's truly, truly not accurate. It takes large amounts of fiat to buy meaningful amounts of Bitcoin. Buyers have to be in the market, parting with a currency that can buy pretty much _anything_ in the world right now, a currency that is _very_ difficult for most people to acquire, in exchange for a number on a Bitcoin-qt client that _possibly_ will be worth more fiat than you bought it for in the future.

Unless you really believe people are hording Bitcoins for the day that you can use it to buy anything in the world like you can fiat. That day is a minimum of 3-5 years away. Whether Bitcoin even survives that long at all is absolutely not certain.

Until Bitcoin starts to see some widespread, real-world use as a currency, you'll never have any natural uptrend in the market because there's no reason to buy it unless you're in a parabolic bull phase or have done the analysis and found it to be a sound investment long term. The only people buying it are speculators, and people with less than six figures cannot move the market at all. Even 10 people coming together with $20,000USD a piece to invest will barely move the market. They can buy at their leisure and instantly get dumped on by an early adopter or a whale.

On the other hand, a lot of people have magical internet money sitting around that they can exchange at-will for real-world currency that they can buy food, pay rent, go on trips, buy cars and clothes, start businesses with etc. There's very little reason right now for _anyone_ to buy a Bitcoin in exchange for fiat unless they are buying for the exclusive purpose of selling them back for extra fiat in the future. People who disagree will feel very, very different when their dreams of $10,000BTC or $1,000,000BTC, or their pipe dreams of Bitcoin replacing fiat across the globe and being an unregulated, anarchistic global Internet currency never come to fruition.

With no widespread use for Bitcoin as a currency, the market will always trend down rather than up, unless it's being pumped. There is no other reason to dump a half mega or a mega into BTC to move the market $3 otherwise, while coins are always being mined, and the ones people are holding are always at risk of forming a cannon to fire at the bid side of Gox once fear and capitulation start to grip people's hearts.