Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[MAbtc]

I dumped 10% back into BTC in high 60s. Don't let me down, lucif! 

[ChartBuddy]

[MonadTran]

parting with a currency that can buy pretty much _anything_ in the world right now, a currency that is _very_ difficult for most people to acquire, in exchange for a number on a Bitcoin-qt client that _possibly_ will be worth more fiat than you bought it for in the future.

Following that logic, investing US dollars into anything at all is a huge mistake. Why won't people just keep them, and don't waste their time trading?
_{(Hint: QE)}

That day is a minimum of 3-5 years away. Whether Bitcoin even survives that long at all is absolutely not certain.

You seem certain the current purchasing power of US dollar would, more or less, survive for 5 more years... I am not sure what this assumption is based upon.

[Its About Sharing]

Interesting, Bitstamp at 73.50 and Gox at 77.50.

Things had been tight recently. Who is leading who now (as far as price direction).
Place your bets.

[Its About Sharing]

Interesting chart from bitcoinwisdom.com.
Notice how it "predicts" the future price (green and red line).
Let's see if it is connected to the BTC price over at Bitstamp.

[Wary]

 Bigger market cap should smooth out the effect on price of influx and outflux of capital, reducing volatility

Margin trading will save us! With leverage 100:1 price swings will drop hundredfold, to single percentages.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Bigger market cap should smooth out the effect on price of influx and outflux of capital, reducing volatility

Margin trading will save us! With leverage 100:1 price swings will drop hundredfold, to single percentages.

Of course, everybody knows that leverage is key for stability  

[Abandon]

I think there's a ways upward to go before the bears return.

[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

Interesting chart from bitcoinwisdom.com.
Notice how it "predicts" the future price (green and red line).
Let's see if it is connected to the BTC price over at Bitstamp.

The red and green lines off the edge of the chart are are order book depth to those prices. It is where the next approx 2000 BTC of bids and asks are placed - like a mini wall observer. Quite cool  

Ahhh, that is really cool! Thanks for the correction.
It seems to make a bit more sense than the regular V wall style charts. At least as it relates to the price. (Took me a bit to get used to the V style chart...  )

[damiano]

Europe going to sleep now..Asia and Aus waking up!

Hopefully something big will happen

[Wary]

Bigger market cap should smooth out the effect on price of influx and outflux of capital, reducing volatility

Margin trading will save us! With leverage 100:1 price swings will drop hundredfold, to single percentages.

Of course, everybody knows that leverage is key for stability  

That's how levers work. Long end swings wildly, while short end hardly moves. On long end, daytraders put billions USD in and out, make and lose their fortunes, while on short end the BTC price hardly moves. Speculators getting volatility and merchants getting stability. Win-win!

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Bigger market cap should smooth out the effect on price of influx and outflux of capital, reducing volatility

Margin trading will save us! With leverage 100:1 price swings will drop hundredfold, to single percentages.

Of course, everybody knows that leverage is key for stability  

That's how levers work. Long end swings wildly, while short end hardly moves. On long end, daytraders put billions USD in and out, make and lose their fortunes, while on short end the BTC price hardly moves. Speculators getting volatility and merchants getting stability. Win-win!

I'll actually have to think some more about this one, you might be right, but I am not seeing the whole picture/model.

[ChartBuddy]

[420]

does blockchain mining margin cost show what it is for GPU miners or both gpu and ASIC

the algorithm may not be updated:

http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

[Ultraviolet]

Following that logic, investing US dollars into anything at all is a huge mistake. Why won't people just keep them, and don't waste their time trading?
_{(Hint: QE)}

That is absolutely not the applicable logic, nor is it what I'm saying. This is a basic fact: Bitcoin is not a fully functional, usable currency at the present time. The reason is simply because you cannot buy very many things with it right now, and of the things you can buy, almost none of them can't _also_ be bought by fiat. It is not that Bitcoin itself is not a fully functional, usable currency, it is the material fact that a currency is only valuable when it can be exchanged for goods and services. Otherwise, minor currencies are only useful to convert into the major currency. This also applies to today's precious metals. Nobody is taking gold or silver as consideration for real world goods, but they still have value because you can convert them into the presently universal fiat.

If you don't believe it, then convert 100% of your fiat into BTC and let me know how life goes for you. Right now Bitcoin is only worth anything because it can be exchanged for a non-insignificant amount of fiat, and is very likely to appreciate in the medium-to-long-term future.

You seem certain the current purchasing power of US dollar would, more or less, survive for 5 more years... I am not sure what this assumption is based upon.

I neither have nor do I profess any such implication. It sounds like you take the insinuation that Bitcoin isn't an economic messiah a little too personally. How close do you think the world is to accepting Bitcoin in place of or as an alternative/equivalence to fiat, exactly? You should be realistic. It's nowhere close. The mere fact that BTC isn't even measured in mBTC yet is a major indicator of how little large scale adoption there is. The mere fact that BTC can barely sustain $100 should also enlighten you a little to the realities of what you're dealing with.

Also, there is a real question of whether or not BTC will be worth anything in five years. There's a question of what it will be worth in even twelve months. One single 51% attack, one hard fork, or one more huge speculative bubble that costs newcomers their shirts can/will severely damage or destroy Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

Bitcoin is never going to liberate mankind from the realities of the ruling system. If it ever does, it will be exclusively because the ruling system chooses to use it, and then it will fall under the rule of that system. Once Bitcoin poses a real threat, all manner of techniques and approaches will be used to eliminate it. Subversion that is hard to detect will be the real tactic that is used, and it's a tactic already being used. I have no idea how people develop such massive pipe dreams, but the world would not be what it is if people were smarter.

[ChartBuddy]

[barbs]

its eerily calm..

[MonadTran]

That is absolutely not the applicable logic, nor is it what I'm saying. This is a basic fact: Bitcoin is not a fully functional, usable currency at the present time.

OK, I suppose so. Bitcoin is not a functional currency yet, and US dollar is not a functional store of value already. Now, my original statement was this:

there is no reason for Bitcoin to go down right now, besides speculation

Some of what you are saying is valid, I just don't see how it relates to that statement. At the moment, there doesn't seem to be anything at all, that is usable both as a store of value, and as a currency, at the same time. Cryptocurrencies is probably the only thing that has the potential to fill that vacuum. But, like you said, Bitcoin has not matured to perfection, yet. There is no particular reason for Bitcoin to go up. There is no particular reason for Bitcoin to go down. Both up- and downward rallies are mass psychoses, sort of. A bitcoin is currently worth $76. Is that too much, or is it too little? I've no idea. Pretty much depends on what mood the Bitcoin crowd would wake up in tomorrow. Someone panics, the panic spreads - I would know the current price was too high. Someone gets optimistic, and buys up that wall at $80 - I would learn that today's price was too low. Any attempts to put TA on top, like trends and such, are mostly in the area of group psychoanalysis, they have very little to do with Bitcoin itself.

[Adrian-x]

there is no reason for Bitcoin to go down right now, besides speculation

That's it we don't have enough speculator feed stock. If the price is too high the problem is to many speculators and too low = to few.

We need new speculators. We need new speculators after I buy back in.