Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[Kj1]

so if the price keeps rising, how would we ever use it as a real currency to buy stuff?
i'm pretty sure everybody who has them has them for buy and hold or making profit, not for purchasing goods - I certainly don't because in two months the price might have doubled, and I would curse myself for giving them away "back then" instead of using real currency.

[CEG5952]

seems we'll just keep climbing until the Chinese have decided they've had enough? then crash time? 

[VolanicEruptor]

so if the price keeps rising, how would we ever use it as a real currency to buy stuff?
i'm pretty sure everybody who has them has them for buy and hold or making profit, not for purchasing goods - I certainly don't because in two months the price might have doubled, and I would curse myself for giving them away "back then" instead of using real currency.

Your question is hard to understand.. why would the price rising affect its usefulness for purchasing goods?

[CEG5952]

so if the price keeps rising, how would we ever use it as a real currency to buy stuff?
i'm pretty sure everybody who has them has them for buy and hold or making profit, not for purchasing goods - I certainly don't because in two months the price might have doubled, and I would curse myself for giving them away "back then" instead of using real currency.

Your question is hard to understand.. why would the price rising affect its usefulness for purchasing goods?

he's saying he doesn't want to use it as currency since it is such a volatile investment vehicle (commodity)

[Miz4r]

so if the price keeps rising, how would we ever use it as a real currency to buy stuff?
i'm pretty sure everybody who has them has them for buy and hold or making profit, not for purchasing goods - I certainly don't because in two months the price might have doubled, and I would curse myself for giving them away "back then" instead of using real currency.

The time for BTC to actually act as a real currency are still years away, this is the time of great volatility and opportunity for those of us who can see what the future of money is.

[notme]

so if the price keeps rising, how would we ever use it as a real currency to buy stuff?
i'm pretty sure everybody who has them has them for buy and hold or making profit, not for purchasing goods - I certainly don't because in two months the price might have doubled, and I would curse myself for giving them away "back then" instead of using real currency.

Your question is hard to understand.. why would the price rising affect its usefulness for purchasing goods?

If bitcoin rises, it would have been better to pay with fiat.

[thezerg]

so if the price keeps rising, how would we ever use it as a real currency to buy stuff?
i'm pretty sure everybody who has them has them for buy and hold or making profit, not for purchasing goods - I certainly don't because in two months the price might have doubled, and I would curse myself for giving them away "back then" instead of using real currency.

Why buy a laptop? Because if you wait a year it would be a lot more powerful, touchscreen, better camera etc for cheaper.  There comes a time when people need to buy stuff almost regardless of future price performance.  And of course some people are always thinking we are near the top.  And also the price isn't going to keep rising like this forever.  It'll flatten out eventually and at that time exchange of BTC we become more common.

But what you've mentioned is the achilles heel of a "sound" currency.  It is theorized that during recessions/depressions people tend to hoard it, spending as little as possible -- saving it in case the recession continues.  This creates a negative feedback of reduced consumption -> fewer jobs -> more reduced consumption.  But on the other hand, in this highly populous, resource limited world careful consumption might be better in the long run than triggering growth that is not connected to greater underlying resource efficiency.

[yefi]

lol

i quote myself, cuz ya 

I think you're entitled to given that you foresaw 180 this year. Incredibly, here we are.

[Sword Smith]

so if the price keeps rising, how would we ever use it as a real currency to buy stuff?
i'm pretty sure everybody who has them has them for buy and hold or making profit, not for purchasing goods - I certainly don't because in two months the price might have doubled, and I would curse myself for giving them away "back then" instead of using real currency.

But what you've mentioned is the achilles heel of a "sound" currency.  It is theorized that during recessions/depressions people tend to hoard it, spending as little as possible -- saving it in case the recession continues.  This creates a negative feedback of reduced consumption -> fewer jobs -> more reduced consumption.  But on the other hand, in this highly populous, resource limited world careful consumption might be better in the long run than triggering growth that is not connected to greater underlying resource efficiency.

You are forgetting an important dynamic: Interest rates. When consumption falls, savings rise and there are thus more money to be lent out. That means that the supply of money for loans rises and the price for loans fall which is the same as the interest rate falling. That means that it becomes more attractive to invest with borrowed money and this increases efficiency (if the investment is sound) which then increases the purchasing power and thus increases consumption. Yes. Capitalism is cool!

[rpietila]

It's funny seeing a lot of the uber bulls who more or less disappeared after the April crash coming back talking about 5-10x growth by next [day, week, etc]. I'm getting nervous reading this crap.

Touché. But it is equally true that the mighty host of bears that abounded after the crash, has all but disappeared by now also.

[CEG5952]

so if the price keeps rising, how would we ever use it as a real currency to buy stuff?
i'm pretty sure everybody who has them has them for buy and hold or making profit, not for purchasing goods - I certainly don't because in two months the price might have doubled, and I would curse myself for giving them away "back then" instead of using real currency.

Why buy a laptop? Because if you wait a year it would be a lot more powerful, touchscreen, better camera etc for cheaper.  There comes a time when people need to buy stuff almost regardless of future price performance.  And of course some people are always thinking we are near the top.  And also the price isn't going to keep rising like this forever.  It'll flatten out eventually and at that time exchange of BTC we become more common.

assuming 100% of my real-life assets aren't in bitcoin, i would just use USD and hold my bitcoin....

[Miz4r]

so if the price keeps rising, how would we ever use it as a real currency to buy stuff?
i'm pretty sure everybody who has them has them for buy and hold or making profit, not for purchasing goods - I certainly don't because in two months the price might have doubled, and I would curse myself for giving them away "back then" instead of using real currency.

Why buy a laptop? Because if you wait a year it would be a lot more powerful, touchscreen, better camera etc for cheaper.  There comes a time when people need to buy stuff almost regardless of future price performance.  And of course some people are always thinking we are near the top.  And also the price isn't going to keep rising like this forever.  It'll flatten out eventually and at that time exchange of BTC we become more common.

But what you've mentioned is the achilles heel of a "sound" currency.  It is theorized that during recessions/depressions people tend to hoard it, spending as little as possible -- saving it in case the recession continues.  This creates a negative feedback of reduced consumption -> fewer jobs -> more reduced consumption.  But on the other hand, in this highly populous, resource limited world careful consumption might be better in the long run than triggering growth that is not connected to greater underlying resource efficiency.

With our modern technology and the increase of automation we shouldn't need to work as much as we used to anyway. Governments are trying to swim upstream by still clinging to outdated models of economy and prosperity. It's frustating to watch how slow the realisation process is that we have to change things on a fundamental level. Good thing bitcoin is here to push them a little bit and awaken/inspire the minds.

[justusranvier]

But what you've mentioned is the achilles heel of a "sound" currency.  It is theorized that during recessions/depressions people tend to hoard it, spending as little as possible -- saving it in case the recession continues.  This creates a negative feedback of reduced consumption -> fewer jobs -> more reduced consumption.

Using inflation to boost consumption is like using cocaine to boost work productivity. The negative effects of coming down off a cocaine high is only a problem for someone who gets high on cocaine in the first place.

The "negative feedback" that economists worry about only happens because consumption had previously been pumped up to unsustainably high levels. When you stop trying to centrally plan the economy, especially by tampering with the money supply, then you don't have to worry about the negative side effects that central planning causes.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

You are forgetting an important dynamic: Interest rates. When consumption falls, savings rise and there are thus more money to be lent out. That means that the supply of money for loans rises and the price for loans fall which is the same as the interest rate falling. That means that it becomes more attractive to invest with borrowed money and this increases efficiency (if the investment is sound) which then increases the purchasing power and thus increases consumption. Yes. Capitalism is cool!

Yah, but with bitcoin you might argue that it will increase in value constantly (not at the same pace as these days obviously, but due to increased productivity combined with a stable money supply), therefore just holding the coins without loaning them out is a viable option.
Any loan would have to have a positive rate that compensates for the risk of a bad loan.  Even if these rates are low, due to BTC appreciation, only loans that are able to give a significant gain in productivity/reward will be viable, thus the overall amount of loans would go down.

[SheHadMANHands]

You know, it's not difficult to buy something with bitcoin and immediately replenish your stash by converting an equivalent amount from fiat to bitcoin.  If you're worried about spending your bitcoins.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

You know, it's not difficult to buy something with bitcoin and immediately replenish your stash by converting an equivalent amount from fiat to bitcoin.  If you're worried about spending your bitcoins.

+1, 'bitcoins are too valuable to spend' is bullshit.  If they are too valuable to spend, it means the current price is too low, thus market forces would drive it up and fix that problem.

[klee]

I'm going to go out on a limb and make a prediction of 350 by end November. I want to say 400 but I'm going to hedge. Could be as late as mid December also.

No TA. Just something in the wind...

I am all out @325...

[rpietila]

You are forgetting an important dynamic: Interest rates. When consumption falls, savings rise and there are thus more money to be lent out. That means that the supply of money for loans rises and the price for loans fall which is the same as the interest rate falling. That means that it becomes more attractive to invest with borrowed money and this increases efficiency (if the investment is sound) which then increases the purchasing power and thus increases consumption. Yes. Capitalism is cool!

Yah, but with bitcoin you might argue that it will increase in value constantly (not at the same pace as these days obviously, but due to increased productivity combined with a stable money supply), therefore just holding the coins without loaning them out is a viable option.
Any loan would have to have a positive rate that compensates for the risk of a bad loan.  Even if these rates are low, due to BTC appreciation, only loans that are able to give a significant gain in productivity/reward will be viable, thus the overall amount of loans would go down.

Bitcoin is exactly what we need: as long as its value goes up and/or is unstable, it is impossible to have any loaning. Afterwards the option to withdraw your bitcoins from banks and put them in paper wallets, forces the interest rate up. The result is a low level of very healthy loaning.