Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[CoinDox]

Not sure why people are pretending Gox doesnt matter? I guess most of you are watching your $ value take a huge drop?

Gox volume is 100% real. China is not.

A 10k sell is nothing to scoff at.

why is China volume not real?

no trade fee

ahhhhh ok

There is real volume in China.   The daily trade volume is higher than there would be if there were fees, no doubt.   It is impossible to know how much effect it has overall.   The "fake volume" crowd is just grasping at straws to try and talk the price down.   I hope they keep doing it, we need people to temper the market with FUD or exuberance would run away even worse.  

tl;dr   It would be really stupid to assume there is no demand for BTC in China . . .

How do you jump from the idea that China's prices are artificially inflated due to no the lack trading fees to saying those people whome think that, think there is no demand for BTC in China?

[macsga]

WTF you people do while I was sleeping? You let the bears in?


IS THAT A DOUBLE BOTTOM???

[pera]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1r1gu5/starbucks_to_make_announcement_regarding_bitcoin/

"Leaker" says Starbucks to accept bitcoin by Thanksgiving.

In the middle of setting up a bitcoin bet involving SeansOutpost for escrow. Off the wall claim just got a little interesting...

lol he "leaked" (aka made up) the info hoping to stop this mad sell off??

MAYBE!

wont work.

but it will bounce, for far more compelling reasons then Starbucks accepting bitcoin.

It's pretty similar to that other "inside information" post on Reddit about Amazon preparing something BIG with Bitcoin back then in May (IIRC)

[octaft]

It's still trading at these prices, though. They volume may be "fake", but not the price.

I'm not saying the volume is faked, because I really have no idea, but couldn't a big player use the lack of trading fees to their advantage by setting up big sell walls, buying them out, and creating the illusion of incredible buying pressure at no cost? Or vice versa, I suppose.

[jojo69]

Not sure why people are pretending Gox doesnt matter? I guess most of you are watching your $ value take a huge drop?

Gox volume is 100% real. China is not.

A 10k sell is nothing to scoff at.

why is China volume not real?

no trade fee

ahhhhh ok

There is real volume in China.   The daily trade volume is higher than there would be if there were fees, no doubt.   It is impossible to know how much effect it has overall.   The "fake volume" crowd is just grasping at straws to try and talk the price down.   I hope they keep doing it, we need people to temper the market with FUD or exuberance would run away even worse.  

tl;dr   It would be really stupid to assume there is no demand for BTC in China . . .

nobody said there was no demand

if you can sell coins to yourself at no charge and paint the tape however you like what do you think you are going to get?

[ButchHashidy]

alert alert .. stamp lag .. stamp lag .. please call the authorities .. alert alert!

[Miz4r]

Not sure why people are pretending Gox doesnt matter? I guess most of you are watching your $ value take a huge drop?

Gox volume is 100% real. China is not.

A 10k sell is nothing to scoff at.

why is China volume not real?

no trade fee

ahhhhh ok

There is real volume in China.   The daily trade volume is higher than there would be if there were fees, no doubt.   It is impossible to know how much effect it has overall.   The "fake volume" crowd is just grasping at straws to try and talk the price down.   I hope they keep doing it, we need people to temper the market with FUD or exuberance would run away even worse.  

tl;dr   It would be really stupid to assume there is no demand for BTC in China . . .

How do you jump from the idea that China's prices are artificially inflated due to no the lack trading fees to saying those people whome think that, think there is no demand for BTC in China?

Price has nothing to do with it, this is about volume. You could say that volume is inflated due to no trading fee and I kinda agree with that, but you can also compare the recent volume with the volume on BTCChina 6 months ago and it's a lot higher now. If the volume is inflated now there is no reason to believe it would be any different 6 months ago, so you can definitely make a good case that the 'real' volume has actually increased a lot.

[tHash]

How do you jump from the idea that China's prices are artificially inflated due to no the lack trading fees to saying those people whome think that, think there is no demand for BTC in China?

Some have said as much.   They have been saying it trying to "scare" the price down for some time.   They have also said that they think it is mostly westerners who trade there, which is crazy talk.   Not that some don't . . .

[CoinDox]

It's still trading at these prices, though. They volume may be "fake", but not the price.

I'm not saying the volume is faked, because I really have no idea, but couldn't a big player use the lack of trading fees to their advantage by setting up big sell walls, buying them out, and creating the illusion of incredible buying pressure at no cost? Or vice versa, I suppose.

Someone gets it!

[tHash]

It's still trading at these prices, though. They volume may be "fake", but not the price.

I'm not saying the volume is faked, because I really have no idea, but couldn't a big player use the lack of trading fees to their advantage by setting up big sell walls, buying them out, and creating the illusion of incredible buying pressure at no cost? Or vice versa, I suppose.

Someone gets it!

So, while the manipulators were hard at work at Gox, why did they not paint red tape in China, creating the illusion of incredible selling pressure?   That would have helped drop the price quite a bit more.   It could be done, but how much is it actually done?   All we can do is speculate, and speculation by very nature is wrong at least as much as it is right.

[Miz4r]

400 is not holding ?
back to 200 ?

Back to 0, time to sell all your coins.

[CoinDox]

Can I also add to the conversation that fact that one of the most popular (and profitable) btc gambling sites went down MOMENTS into the first big crash from 900 levels on gox? I refer to primedice.

Some suspect he absconded with the funds and sold when he could https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208986.2140 (I know some may think of the commenter as a troll, but there is often truth hidden within the "spam" of some people).  If that and the fact that some very established members have sold the majority of their holdings tells you nothing about what is will happen within the next little while... Well you are on your own.

[tHash]

400 is not holding ?
back to 200 ?

Not sure where you are looking, but all exchanges (except BTC-e) are currently above $500.   Nowhere near danger of $400 falling right now.

[BitThink]

It's still trading at these prices, though. They volume may be "fake", but not the price.

I'm not saying the volume is faked, because I really have no idea, but couldn't a big player use the lack of trading fees to their advantage by setting up big sell walls, buying them out, and creating the illusion of incredible buying pressure at no cost? Or vice versa, I suppose.

Someone gets it!

How about someone put bids under your big wall? Buy all of them?

Put a huge ask wall and then buy, and then what? You haven't moved the price yet. Most day traders following systems watching the price movements. Big selling wall being eaten is a bullish signal, but the appearance of big selling wall in the first place is a bearish signal. So who knows how people interpret it?

If someone really want to manipulate the market, they have to move the price by eating up the real walls. They will do it even without 0 trading fee. A trading fee as 0.3% or so just lower a little bit of their income by manipulating market.

That said, 0 trading fee definitely increases the volume. But that's mainly caused by the large number of small day traders. They can do more small scale and very frequent buy/sells using the API to get some small money.

[Rannasha]

Can I also add to the conversation that fact that one of the most popular (and profitable) btc gambling sites went down MOMENTS into the first big crash from 900 levels on gox? I refer to primedice.

Some suspect he absconded with the funds and sold when he could https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208986.2140 (I know some may think of the commenter as a troll, but there is often truth hidden within the "spam" of some people).  If that and the fact that some very established members have sold the majority of their holdings tells you nothing about what is will happen within the next little while... Well you are on your own.

Look at the guy that made those claims (haigtst) and his previous posts. He does nothing but spam nonsense (in this thread too).

While I can't rule out that he might be correct (if you throw shit at the wall long enough, eventually some of it will stick), I don't take anything he spams seriously and I'd recommend, for your sanity, that you do the same.

[CoinDox]

It's still trading at these prices, though. They volume may be "fake", but not the price.

I'm not saying the volume is faked, because I really have no idea, but couldn't a big player use the lack of trading fees to their advantage by setting up big sell walls, buying them out, and creating the illusion of incredible buying pressure at no cost? Or vice versa, I suppose.

Someone gets it!

So, while the manipulators were hard at work at Gox, why did they not paint red tape in China, creating the illusion of incredible selling pressure?   That would have helped drop the price quite a bit more.   It could be done, but how much is it actually done?   All we can do is speculate, and speculation by very nature is wrong at least as much as it is right.

This last sell off was not market manipulation nor was it intended to drive prices down to buy the dip... It was stated earlier that the gox errors were due to a fail-safe put in place to protect against large dumps. What this last day or two represents is an actual transfer of major btc holdings to fiat as large holders sold into the demand built up over the last week.

Let me put it this way. In a market in which holding is more profitable than shorting, driving price up significantly requires actual people buying into the market, which means it requires a lot of capital $$. Driving price down however, requires dumping a "few" (what were once very cheap and plentiful) coins into the market.

Ask yourselves, how can it be that BTC increases in value? It is none other than more people ($$) entering the system.

[seanneko]

The last 48 hours have made me wonder why my BTC are in paper storage.

It's annoying to correctly predict rises/drops, but have my BTC sitting in a locked safe at home while I'm at work.

[BitThink]

Can I also add to the conversation that fact that one of the most popular (and profitable) btc gambling sites went down MOMENTS into the first big crash from 900 levels on gox? I refer to primedice.

Some suspect he absconded with the funds and sold when he could https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208986.2140 (I know some may think of the commenter as a troll, but there is often truth hidden within the "spam" of some people).  If that and the fact that some very established members have sold the majority of their holdings tells you nothing about what is will happen within the next little while... Well you are on your own.

You have emphasized that this is just for the 'next little while', so most people will not care so much. Yes, it may crash to $300, but it was the price just 3 days ago. What's the big deal?

If you want to sell now and buy back low enough, You have to watch the market 24/7 because no one could know when it will suddenly shoot up again.

[thoughtfan]

The last 48 hours have made me wonder why my BTC are in paper storage.

It's annoying to correctly predict rises/drops, but have my BTC sitting in a locked safe at home while I'm at work.

Either because you're lucky or because at some level you know it makes sense not to risk your bitcoins on trading hunches.  You may well have been correct in this instance and might even have got away with selling higher to buy back lower but that may well have given you confidence to trade more and sooner or later the chances are you will have ended up with fewer bitcoins than you now have in your paper wallet.

Be pleased you were thinking sensibly at the time you put your coins out of hunch's reach!

[jojo69]

The last 48 hours have made me wonder why my BTC are in paper storage.

It's annoying to correctly predict rises/drops, but have my BTC sitting in a locked safe at home while I'm at work.

they are safe there, don't get emotional