Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

Lower-classed systemic risks: in high-yield markets, be sure not to restructure them.

Say this again, but this time could you pretend you're talking to a smart 6 year old, please?

(or: How would one errantly restructure a lower-classed systemic risk, if I got that right)

The wise trader these days will always cover subordinate-rated asset pools.

Exatly, combine that with Fibonacci Retracements based on a refactoring of the singularity in a quantum matrix!

But don't forget to apply the ladder operator to the oscillation in that Hilbert space!

all the technical shit and you all still haven't a clue what price will do 5 mins from now

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Exchanges are obsolete. They're just trading on inertia.

Care to explain?

[Drabla]

Lower-classed systemic risks: in high-yield markets, be sure not to restructure them.

Say this again, but this time could you pretend you're talking to a smart 6 year old, please?

(or: How would one errantly restructure a lower-classed systemic risk, if I got that right)

The wise trader these days will always cover subordinate-rated asset pools.

Exatly, combine that with Fibonacci Retracements based on a refactoring of the singularity in a quantum matrix!

But don't forget to apply the ladder operator to the oscillation in that Hilbert space!

And solve everything for 42

[600watt]

I find it strange that bitstamp is so close to gox now. There used to be a 100 points gap. What changed?

Seventh circle of hell opened up, we're going to $2. At least that's what I gathered from the last few pages

 

I'm very tired and should not be trading this much money

shit is goes down to 2 $ again ?  
panicsellmode: on

[N12]

+1
I, for one, gotta say thanks for this comment, Blitz. I'm new to this forum but really appreciate your comments here-- I know that I certainly have ridiculously risky appetite, despite a fairly good knowledge (for a non-pro trader) of position sizing and risk allocation. Do I properly size my positions, do I use a trailing stop, do I take profits appropriately, and cut losses every time? Certainly, I feel like these are my weakest areas. Finding BTC is probably the hard part. Now that I'm here, I should really exert those controls and be patient.

Do you have any more suggestions on/about BTC risk management? (excuse me, as I haven't read back through the last 20 pps)

Cheers!

If you want to be serious and have the time to dedicate, IMO it's the best thing to learn technical analysis. I've learnt a lot from waveaddict (whom I still subscribe to) and in the beginning S3052. Here is a good free source to start out: http://www.babypips.com/school

Otherwise, I would simply hold BTC if I really saw much potential left until a bubble happens and bursts, which is the optimal time to diversify. If things look good after a few months and it isn't in a severe downtrend, it is probably. In case you haven't bought yet but would like to do so, I agree the best one can to is dollar cost averaging. Allocate money you want in BTC and set an interval you regularly buy at.

If Bitcoin is to rule the world, both approaches will work very well.

Maybe this can help you too if you think you can quantify a few things: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/kellycriterion.asp

[San1ty]

Lower-classed systemic risks: in high-yield markets, be sure not to restructure them.

Say this again, but this time could you pretend you're talking to a smart 6 year old, please?

(or: How would one errantly restructure a lower-classed systemic risk, if I got that right)

The wise trader these days will always cover subordinate-rated asset pools.

Exatly, combine that with Fibonacci Retracements based on a refactoring of the singularity in a quantum matrix!

But don't forget to apply the ladder operator to the oscillation in that Hilbert space!

Oh you're right, nice one!
With all that, if you manage to lock all 9 chevrons on the Parabolic SAR you're good to go for interstellar prices!

[adamstgBit]

i do not feel comfortable with all this dirty fiat, please everyone sell now so i can buy back already.

[herzmeister]

Lower-classed systemic risks: in high-yield markets, be sure not to restructure them.

Say this again, but this time could you pretend you're talking to a smart 6 year old, please?

(or: How would one errantly restructure a lower-classed systemic risk, if I got that right)

The wise trader these days will always cover subordinate-rated asset pools.

OK, so you're kicking PPC and Ripple into a lower tranche just because they look funny? (that's a joke)

Actually, that helps, thanks. I get the subordination part, after looking a brief glance at this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securitization), what do you mean cover? Are you shorting or buying futures (and thanks for bearing with my ignorance)?

Maybe http://phrasegenerator.com/finance can help you further. 

[Nightowlace]

I believe BTC should be in the $150 range. There is nothing to support any higher of a price.

What makes you say that?

Because at this point there are a lot of exciting projects in the works for BTC. Key word in the works. One ATM and a letter from Bernake saying BTC is legit and we can't really regulate it doesn't make it worth $600. I am willing to place a value on the speculation of what could happen but until it does it's not.

Look at it this way; If I asked you to invest in my company that had some great projects in the works that will make us billions would you give me a billion dollar valuation right away or would you want to come in at a more sensible valuation because we are so early on? You're not going to make an investment based on what it could be, you will invest on what it is.

[I_bitcoin]

I wonder how much impact coinbase has on price?   If they keep getting capped
and they are the "easiest" way to buy bitcoins in the US would this be part of the
reason why we had softness?

Can't help but notice that a lot of deflating started to occur with coinbase no longer
able to sell coin.

[N12]

Yes you're so smart Blitz you were there back in 2011 and you know exactly how history will repeat itself right now in November 2013. Even though you thought the same thing after the April 2013 crash, but this time it will really really be just like 2011. It has to be. 

The point is that it could be after the pop of the bubble, and that's one of the worst case scenario to look out for. I do not know the future, but I can make educated guesses. I would never recommend shorting Bitcoin or playing with margin at all. Guard yourself.

Furthermore, I became bearish long before the low of 66. I was wrong because I didn't think it would end up a triangle with a higher low. Also, I do like to troll here even if I am serious sometimes. It's fun posting overly dramatic stuff.

[Rampion]

I do not think that "risk management" strategies are sound for BTC. In my book the only way to go is the following:

Invest in BTC an amount you are ready to lose

Don't forget to realize some fiat profits, because unrealized profits = non-existent profits.

Practical example:

Somebody that invested in January this year has already a 50x unrealized profit. Wise thing in my book would be to sell at least 10% of the BTC, cashing in a healthy 5x profit on the initial investment, while keeping 90% of the BTC for the next cycle.

I'm using this strategy myself, with a clear exit plan I tend to follow strictly. I was lucky because I managed to reach x100 in the last run-up (BTC doubled 3 times in 4 weeks), but I would have cashed out even at x50.

[crazy_rabbit]

I believe BTC should be in the $150 range. There is nothing to support any higher of a price.

What makes you say that?

Because at this point there are a lot of exciting projects in the works for BTC. Key word in the works. One ATM and a letter from Bernake saying BTC is legit and we can't really regulate it doesn't make it worth $600. I am willing to place a value on the speculation of what could happen but until it does it's not.

Look at it this way; If I asked you to invest in my company that had some great projects in the works that will make us billions would you give me a billion dollar valuation right away or would you want to come in at a more sensible valuation because we are so early on? You're not going to make an investment based on what it could be, you will invest on what it is.

It seems like your $150 valuation is pure fantasy as well. It is magic internet money, why should it be worth even $1 until someone has built an exchange that does screw up like gox? Or until we can use it as money with virtually no volatility?

We're buying for the future. If 50 years from now it's the backbone of the finacial system and worth a million dollars each, then yeah, $600 bitcoin today is a pretty darn good investment. Not to mention, we buy it today at the price of today to give early adopters who are also often the people building things, more capital to invest into their projects.

[CryptStorm]

Lower-classed systemic risks: in high-yield markets, be sure not to restructure them.

Say this again, but this time could you pretend you're talking to a smart 6 year old, please?

(or: How would one errantly restructure a lower-classed systemic risk, if I got that right)

The wise trader these days will always cover subordinate-rated asset pools.

OK, so you're kicking PPC and Ripple into a lower tranche just because they look funny? (that's a joke)

Actually, that helps, thanks. I get the subordination part, after looking a brief glance at this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securitization), what do you mean cover? Are you shorting or buying futures (and thanks for bearing with my ignorance)?

Maybe http://phrasegenerator.com/finance can help you further. 

Excellent, and might I add, bravo? I was imagining big money, and wondering why you'd be here if you're involved by diversifying risk across tranches where securities are the most junior category (here, I'm thinking, well if that's so, then WTF is BTC? (junior baby), and how are you absorbing that risk into your management, are you GS!? or JPM or do you work at one of those or... or...)

Lastly, in the agricultural market, always insure non-defaulted SPVs. Thank you  

[CryptStorm]

I believe BTC should be in the $150 range. There is nothing to support any higher of a price.

What makes you say that?

Because at this point there are a lot of exciting projects in the works for BTC. Key word in the works. One ATM and a letter from Bernake saying BTC is legit and we can't really regulate it doesn't make it worth $600. I am willing to place a value on the speculation of what could happen but until it does it's not.

Look at it this way; If I asked you to invest in my company that had some great projects in the works that will make us billions would you give me a billion dollar valuation right away or would you want to come in at a more sensible valuation because we are so early on? You're not going to make an investment based on what it could be, you will invest on what it is.

It seems like your $150 valuation is pure fantasy as well. It is magic internet money, why should it be worth even $1 until someone has built an exchange that does screw up like gox? Or until we can use it as money with virtually no volatility?

We're buying for the future. If 50 years from now it's the backbone of the finacial system and worth a million dollars each, then yeah, $600 bitcoin today is a pretty darn good investment. Not to mention, we buy it today at the price of today to give early adopters who are also often the people building things, more capital to invest into their projects.

Exactly! Hi, Nightowlace. I sense your frustration, and I understand that the comments, and the big price swings can make it seem like everyone is both 1) and Asshole, and 2) is making money constantly. I don't think that's the case here. Rather, we are mostly here (IMO) because we understand that the current banking system is broken, and cryptos offer a way to: 1) increase efficiency in that system (it is *OUR* system, ya know-- its *OUR* money); and, 2) get the banksters away from fucking up the entire universe by over-capitalizing the world... you know, taking pensions from everyone, eating up good companies just so that can buy and chop and resell the financial parts of it, etc etc etc.

If you want to get a historical perspective, why not start looking at how P2P is revolutionizing the post-industrial world (to me, the *most* fascinating part of our current history)?

Rabbit is right, Bitcoin is not just some company, its the poster child for cryptos, which *will* become a mainstay of a great multitude (actually, *all* if you go far enough forward) of financial transactions: from micropayments, consumer transactions, remittances, domestic and international commerce, and government funds. Yeah, there will be others. But right now, the first baby (you know, the one that was borne of mama internet and daddy money!??) just came out of mama, and its *not* blue. In fact, it just cried when it went to the Senate yesterday! You know what that means!??! It's ALIVE!

So, do I think that's worth more than $150 bucks!? You decide. A baby today, tomorrow, the whole world.

[FCTaiChi]

...

And solve everything for 42

How many roads must a man walk down?

[Vycid]

...

And solve everything for 42

How many roads must a man walk down?

... before you can call his wavefunction entangled?

[adamstgBit]

bitcoin's value, has been and always will be, the same, 21 million BTC

[ChartBuddy]

[adamstgBit]

this is the part were bears place walls( instead of panic sell ) price falls slowly and the KABOOM we hit bottom and EVERYONE knows it