Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TheKoziTwo]

My intention is to warn you guys to practice proper risk management because inevitably, even with a small investment, your Bitcoin allocation will be the main source of your wealth. Marginal utility of wealth dictates that it's more important to secure your first million than to make another.

I've seen it go down from 32 to 2 and it was a really bullish environment too until about 14. Don't fool yourself thinking it can't happen again today. That's just the nature of humans.

+1
I, for one, gotta say thanks for this comment, Blitz. I'm new to this forum but really appreciate your comments here-- I know that I certainly have ridiculously risky appetite, despite a fairly good knowledge (for a non-pro trader) of position sizing and risk allocation. Do I properly size my positions, do I use a trailing stop, do I take profits appropriately, and cut losses every time? Certainly, I feel like these are my weakest areas. Finding BTC is probably the hard part. Now that I'm here, I should really exert those controls and be patient.

Do you have any more suggestions on/about BTC risk management? (excuse me, as I haven't read back through the last 20 pps)

Cheers!

You're asking the right guy for advice.

Here's a few of his pretty good predictions back in july:

Goodbye, triple digits. See you 2015.

After this week, I'm not sure we will see triple digits in 2013 again.

This has never been a billion dollar market to begin with. Triple digit, billion, those are things of a faint past.

No more triple digits for 2013.

Noone buys the triple digit lie anymore.

Looks like MtGox is beginning to shake off its denial and join the ranks of the 80s. This is only the beginning.

What if the buyer is an established casino firm that wanted to get into the Bitcoin game? If that's the case, then they would've been accumulating beforehand and have been responsible for some of the buying pressure. This would now be gone, along with 350k coins released on the market.

I smell blood.

[NewLiberty]

A bull is a person who does not hold fiat.

A bear is a person who holds at least some fiat and wants to return to BTC.

As you can see, I am now a bear. But almost everybody else are bulls. What this means is that you do not have the means to influence price to the upside. Only we do. But we are very few. Also the newbies do. But will they really buy in this kind of situation?

Everyone else are bulls? The bears are all over this forum today predicting their doom and gloom, even Blitz turned bear and is preaching 2011 all over again.

My straw poll index of
1) Number of new localbitcoin buyers pestering me.
2) Coinbase time of running out of coins for sale.  (though it seems there were enough sellers that they have been able to offer coins at times)

Suggests to me that there is still more new moneyflow in ahead, though short term is the domain of the whales and the sharks.  
Am only looking at week over week, and wouldn't call anything daily (nor would that matter to me as it takes longer than that to get cash to an exchange).
I gave up the TA chart analytics, algo writing and daytrading in the 90s as an activity that does not make the best use of my talents, but cherish the lessons from those long gone days, I made a lot of money for people that were a lot richer than I was (or will ever be).

[jojo69]

pwnd

[N12]

Why so mad, Kozi? Despite all that, I outperformed Bitcoin, and I didn't even mean to.

Like I said, I like trolling and being overly dramatic sometimes.

[ShroomsKit]

My intention is to warn you guys to practice proper risk management because inevitably, even with a small investment, your Bitcoin allocation will be the main source of your wealth. Marginal utility of wealth dictates that it's more important to secure your first million than to make another.

I've seen it go down from 32 to 2 and it was a really bullish environment too until about 14. Don't fool yourself thinking it can't happen again today. That's just the nature of humans.

+1
I, for one, gotta say thanks for this comment, Blitz. I'm new to this forum but really appreciate your comments here-- I know that I certainly have ridiculously risky appetite, despite a fairly good knowledge (for a non-pro trader) of position sizing and risk allocation. Do I properly size my positions, do I use a trailing stop, do I take profits appropriately, and cut losses every time? Certainly, I feel like these are my weakest areas. Finding BTC is probably the hard part. Now that I'm here, I should really exert those controls and be patient.

Do you have any more suggestions on/about BTC risk management? (excuse me, as I haven't read back through the last 20 pps)

Cheers!

You're asking the right guy for advice.

Here's a few of his pretty good predictions back in july:

Goodbye, triple digits. See you 2015.

After this week, I'm not sure we will see triple digits in 2013 again.

This has never been a billion dollar market to begin with. Triple digit, billion, those are things of a faint past.

No more triple digits for 2013.

Noone buys the triple digit lie anymore.

Looks like MtGox is beginning to shake off its denial and join the ranks of the 80s. This is only the beginning.

What if the buyer is an established casino firm that wanted to get into the Bitcoin game? If that's the case, then they would've been accumulating beforehand and have been responsible for some of the buying pressure. This would now be gone, along with 350k coins released on the market.

I smell blood.

 

[ardana123]

My intention is to warn you guys to practice proper risk management because inevitably, even with a small investment, your Bitcoin allocation will be the main source of your wealth. Marginal utility of wealth dictates that it's more important to secure your first million than to make another.

I've seen it go down from 32 to 2 and it was a really bullish environment too until about 14. Don't fool yourself thinking it can't happen again today. That's just the nature of humans.

+1
I, for one, gotta say thanks for this comment, Blitz. I'm new to this forum but really appreciate your comments here-- I know that I certainly have ridiculously risky appetite, despite a fairly good knowledge (for a non-pro trader) of position sizing and risk allocation. Do I properly size my positions, do I use a trailing stop, do I take profits appropriately, and cut losses every time? Certainly, I feel like these are my weakest areas. Finding BTC is probably the hard part. Now that I'm here, I should really exert those controls and be patient.

Do you have any more suggestions on/about BTC risk management? (excuse me, as I haven't read back through the last 20 pps)

Cheers!

You're asking the right guy for advice.

Here's a few of his pretty good predictions back in july:

Goodbye, triple digits. See you 2015.

After this week, I'm not sure we will see triple digits in 2013 again.

This has never been a billion dollar market to begin with. Triple digit, billion, those are things of a faint past.

No more triple digits for 2013.

Noone buys the triple digit lie anymore.

Looks like MtGox is beginning to shake off its denial and join the ranks of the 80s. This is only the beginning.

What if the buyer is an established casino firm that wanted to get into the Bitcoin game? If that's the case, then they would've been accumulating beforehand and have been responsible for some of the buying pressure. This would now be gone, along with 350k coins released on the market.

I smell blood.

You actually went through the trouble of finding all those posts and putting them in quotes 

[Joenaes]

This bull trap? is lasting longer than I thought. I dont like it, im still in dirty fiat

ya me too...

but #1 golden rule of trading, stick to your trade.


either way i make money so who cares.

Yea I also sold $700+, but still, you always want to make the perfect decision. I guess ill go sleep now and reanalyze in the morning.

[N12]

I do get the feeling a lot of people are mad at me for my habit of expecting the worst.

[TheKoziTwo]

You actually went through the trouble of finding all those posts and putting them in quotes 

I already quoted this before, just re-posted it. And I'm not mad at all, I think this is hilarious. Just posted for lulz.

[Nightowlace]

I believe BTC should be in the $150 range. There is nothing to support any higher of a price.

What makes you say that?

Because at this point there are a lot of exciting projects in the works for BTC. Key word in the works. One ATM and a letter from Bernake saying BTC is legit and we can't really regulate it doesn't make it worth $600. I am willing to place a value on the speculation of what could happen but until it does it's not.

Look at it this way; If I asked you to invest in my company that had some great projects in the works that will make us billions would you give me a billion dollar valuation right away or would you want to come in at a more sensible valuation because we are so early on? You're not going to make an investment based on what it could be, you will invest on what it is.

How about if that company had developed a universal cure for cancer with apparently no side effects and just had to go through FDA approval and marketing?

You would need my investment for that approval and marketing so why would I pay you too dollar knowing you need it? I would come in much lower know in you need it and would enjoy this nice ride up as it gained approval.

[DougTanner]

That was a huge amount of interest in Bitcoin on Reddit and Wiki yesterday compared to previous days/weeks.

http://www.reddit.com/r/bitcoin/about/traffic

There must be a lot of money 'in transit' to the exchanges.
I'm not so sure this bubble is ready for popping just yet..

Reposting.

[N12]

I wonder if there are similarly hilarious bull quotes from me from the past. Too lazy to search. Get on it Kozi.

[kurious]

I believe BTC should be in the $150 range. There is nothing to support any higher of a price.

What makes you say that?

Because at this point there are a lot of exciting projects in the works for BTC. Key word in the works. One ATM and a letter from Bernake saying BTC is legit and we can't really regulate it doesn't make it worth $600. I am willing to place a value on the speculation of what could happen but until it does it's not.

Look at it this way; If I asked you to invest in my company that had some great projects in the works that will make us billions would you give me a billion dollar valuation right away or would you want to come in at a more sensible valuation because we are so early on? You're not going to make an investment based on what it could be, you will invest on what it is.

How about if that company had developed a universal cure for cancer with apparently no side effects and just had to go through FDA approval and marketing?

I agree. Saying its "In the works" does not mean it shouldnt count.

Also, down we go?

Some things are worth what is perceived as their potential.

Otherwise - why did the Twitter float raise so much.  Whatever you think of Twitter it is only an 'app' and it has NEVER made any money.

Bitcoin is a potential world currency - it is way more important than an 'app'.

Do they have US Senate hearings about Twitter?

All price guesses are beyond easy prediction, however BTC is the market leader in the potential future of a new paradigm in the world of currency.  Yes - it is massive win, or potential fail - but is not worthless.

Potential has a price, or why would anyone bet on sport, shares or anything with no truly solid tangible value?

I don't think Bitcoin is going away, it is potentially truly massive in what it can do to in terms of changing the game of the entire world's money and means of exchange.

It may not be the only decentralised digital currency - not even the best.

But it may well be the first that makes a difference....

[TheKoziTwo]

I wonder if there are similarly hilarious bull quotes from me from the past. Too lazy to search. Get on it Kozi.

I had a good laugh @ 1k prediction that bruce wagner was throwing around and increased to 10k during the 2011 rally. But with his strategy "buy now, never sell" you'd still be pretty well off today.

[ChartBuddy]

[niothor]

I do get the feeling a lot of people are mad at me for my habit of expecting the worst.

What is amazing is that your ignore button isn't blood red by now :DDD.

[ShroomsKit]

I do get the feeling a lot of people are mad at me for my habit of expecting the worst.

Stop being so full of yourself. Nobody is made at you. People just think you are a total clown. That's all.

You are absolutely clueless. And apparently not just about Bitcoin.

[crazy_rabbit]

I wonder if there are similarly hilarious bull quotes from me from the past. Too lazy to search. Get on it Kozi.

I had a good laugh @ 1k prediction that bruce wagner was throwing around and increased to 10k during the 2011 rally. But with his strategy "buy now, never sell" you'd still be pretty well off today.

true. I sold just a little to get some cash.

EDIT: I really like the look of the volume on Bistamp. solid, consistent.

[NamelessOne]

I wonder if there are similarly hilarious bull quotes from me from the past. Too lazy to search. Get on it Kozi.

I had a good laugh @ 1k prediction that bruce wagner was throwing around and increased to 10k during the 2011 rally. But with his strategy "buy now, never sell" you'd still be pretty well off today.

LOL Bruce Wagner, just lol.

[SkRRJyTC]

I wonder if there are similarly hilarious bull quotes from me from the past. Too lazy to search. Get on it Kozi.

I had a good laugh @ 1k prediction that bruce wagner was throwing around and increased to 10k during the 2011 rally. But with his strategy "buy now, never sell" you'd still be pretty well off today.

true. I sold just a little to get some cash.

EDIT: I really like the look of the volume on Bistamp. solid, consistent.

Thanks BFX