Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Litecoin is approaching a tenth of Bitcoin's market cap. That's probably too high given Litecoin's utility: hedge, tumbler, arbitrage instrument, testing ground for new ideas, and fallback in case of catastrophe. The market cap doesn't need to be much higher (as a % of BTC market cap) for those functions, except maybe hedging, so it won't be.

You can see the hedge function at work very clearly in the past few days: people want less exposure to Bitcoin but don't want fiat, so they buy altcoins. Once it's clear Bitcoin is again on the move upward, the coins will drain out of the alts and back into BTC. The altcoins are like Bitcoin's inflatable cushion. They reduce volatility and even existential risk.

[aminorex]

Unability to understand something and rationality are two different things.

Oh so sadly true, and abundantly illustrated in these forums and in the press. 

And are the current fiat currencies going back to zero before or after bitcoin ?

I will bid my 1BTC to your 0.5BTC that the US dollar ceases to be an international reserve currency before BTC trades with a daily VWAP under 1 dollar (US2013 PP).
I will bid my 0.5BTC to your 1BTC that the US treasury defaults on debt before BTC trades with a daily VWAP under 1 dollar (US2013 PP).

Value exists only in the minds of people

While true in a sense, this is misleading.  Bitcoin has fundamental value as money.  Most punters fail to understand how to value money.  PQ=MV dawg.

[rocks]

And are the current fiat currencies going back to zero before or after bitcoin ?

I will bid my 1BTC to your 0.5BTC that the US dollar ceases to be an international reserve currency before BTC trades with a daily VWAP under 1 dollar (US2013 PP).
I will bid my 0.5BTC to your 1BTC that the US treasury defaults on debt before BTC trades with a daily VWAP under 1 dollar (US2013 PP).

That is sort of like heads I win tails you lose. In the cases here where you win the btc recieved is worth a lot while in the cases you lose the btc given is worthless. ..

[jojo69]

And are the current fiat currencies going back to zero before or after bitcoin ?

I will bid my 1BTC to your 0.5BTC that the US dollar ceases to be an international reserve currency before BTC trades with a daily VWAP under 1 dollar (US2013 PP).
I will bid my 0.5BTC to your 1BTC that the US treasury defaults on debt before BTC trades with a daily VWAP under 1 dollar (US2013 PP).

That is sort of like heads I win tails you lose. In the cases here where you win the btc recieved is worth a lot while in the cases you lose the btc given is worthless. ..

the force is strong with this one

[solex]

Awesome. Now that you mention it, I do remember it hitting $1000 in Chinese exchanges, but this is way more exciting to follow.

Thanks for answering!

During that mania someone paid $3,600 per btc, which must be the world record so far.

[macsga]

Great news to read 1st thing in the morning... (well... uhm, OK, after this thread)
http://www.businessinsider.com/is-bitcoin-about-to-change-the-world-2013-11

[ChartBuddy]

[BitcoinAshley]

Price isn't moving because everyone's busy pumping alt-coins.
 

[Davyd05]

Price isn't moving because everyone's busy pumping alt-coins.
 

they're actually dumping them as we speak.. 2 dollar down trend in ltc and nvc.. either way.. I'm really looking forward to staying up all night to watch the 1k hit

[Richy_T]

Price isn't moving because everyone's busy pumping alt-coins.
 

It's waiting for me to go to bed. I can tell.

[windjc]

Price isn't moving because everyone's busy pumping alt-coins.
 

I personally learned a lot in the last 36 hours regarding the crypto market and how it reacts to rallys in Bitcoin. I completely missed the boat with this most recent alt rally. And now that it has happened it seems so absolutely obvious to me. So when the time is right, I will not be making that mistake again. Lesson learned. Live and learn.

(Meanwhile, 3 days left for BTC to hit $1000. My best guess was always today or tomorrow, but we will see. I wonder if its just going to happen in a split instance or if Gox is going to tease us for a few more days?)

[4mherewego]

Litecoin is approaching a tenth of Bitcoin's market cap. That's probably too high given Litecoin's utility: hedge, tumbler, arbitrage instrument, testing ground for new ideas, and fallback in case of catastrophe. The market cap doesn't need to be much higher (as a % of BTC market cap) for those functions, except maybe hedging, so it won't be.

You can see the hedge function at work very clearly in the past few days: people want less exposure to Bitcoin but don't want fiat, so they buy altcoins. Once it's clear Bitcoin is again on the move upward, the coins will drain out of the alts and back into BTC. The altcoins are like Bitcoin's inflatable cushion. They reduce volatility and even existential risk.

Imo most events that can effect bitcoin and litecoin clearly are not independent. For example if US bans bitcoin you can be pretty sure that they also will ban litecoins. And if someone 51% bitcoin they sure can 51% litecoin also. So the case for litecoin is even weaker.

[bitboyben]

come on bitstamp and mtgox ATH ATH!

[molecular]

Now will 15.5 oz of silver ever equal 1 oz of gold again?

absolutely

If time is eternal, everything will eventually happen unless we repeat in a loop.

[molecular]

can i ask a question? when the buy is smaller than the ask/sell number.. that means there are more people willing to sell than buy right?

It's not that simple.  For one thing, there are more people willing to buy or sell than the number of people who have positions on the orderbook.  I may be willing to sell, but may not want to let the market know that I'm willing to sell by putting an ask/sell order on an orderbook.  Instead, I might just execute a market order and sell directly into the buy orders.  Similarly, buyers may wish to buy, but might not advertise that on the orderbook, and might, instead, buy some of the ask/sell orders sitting on the book.

Or: someone might actually be willing to buy, but will put a big sell order into the book to scare the market down.

[KieranJones1]

I'm no economist, but wouldn't most BTC owners be holding right now till the price hits $1000, just out of a desire for the psychological satisfaction of receiving 1000*their stock of bitcoin? It seems odd that the price is hovering as if there's an equal volume of buy/sell offers.

[ChartBuddy]

[windjc]

I'm no economist, but wouldn't most BTC owners be holding right now till the price hits $1000, just out of a desire for the psychological satisfaction of receiving 1000*their stock of bitcoin? It seems odd that the price is hovering as if there's an equal volume of buy/sell offers.

Its just a game of cat and mouse at this point. We might all just sit around and stare at each other for a while. But sooner or later, someone is going to start buying who doesn't care what the price is and that will rally people to bring the walls down.

[KieranJones1]

Or, alternatively, everyone's going to sell at $1000 and the price will dramatically fall... don't worry, I'm really hoping it keeps rising too, but I can't shake the pessimistic feeling that it might not.

But enough of that. It feels so right that this is happening just before Bitcoin Black Friday - this could be a few days that go down in BTC history

[MahaRamana]

I'm no economist, but wouldn't most BTC owners be holding right now till the price hits $1000, just out of a desire for the psychological satisfaction of receiving 1000*their stock of bitcoin? It seems odd that the price is hovering as if there's an equal volume of buy/sell offers.

Its just a game of cat and mouse at this point. We might all just sit around and stare at each other for a while. But sooner or later, someone is going to start buying who doesn't care what the price is and that will rally people to bring the walls down.

Unless we bounce harder on the 1000 resistance very soon, we are going to reach it within the next few hours. Even on small volume.

The longer it hovers around 950-970, the more momentum it will have once we break through.