Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[thoughtfan]

Word on the street: India.
And they hate being out done by China.
$1300 next week

Source please.  Hell, you can't even legally import gold into India.  I don't think Indian regulators will take too kindly to Bitcoin, but I could be wrong.  I don't know why India didn't jump in earlier .. compared to China, they have a much higher English literacy rate so you'd think they'd already be all over the existing exchanges.

They will not take kindly to Bitcoin at all. India's balance of trade has been suffering due to their gold imports, and since I'm guessing most Bitcoins are outside Indian borders, a Bitcoin craze will just worsen that problem.

However, Indian regulators are breathtakingly slow to act, and often ineffectual when they do. It is conceivable that India will "come online" before their government even grasps the concept.

The important difference between India and China is that China has experienced much, much greater recent growth in its middle class. It's only rich and middle class folks who have the disposable income to buy bitcoins with, and so there are many more potential buyers in China than India.

It's not reasonable to expect a second "China effect" out of India. Our attention now should be focused on Wall Street.

Seems like a reasonable assessment (I am no expert on India so I'm not really qualified to endorse or counter it) and I agree there is unlikely to be the same kind of proportion of middle class Indians as have been Chinese buying in as a speculative investment.  Where India does I think have greater shorter term promise is in remittances and as the cellphone revolution continues, as mobile money such as M-Pesa is doing in Kenya.

Just like I anticipate the David Woo comments yesterday are more likely to have a bigger impact on businesses considering adaption than on price I anticipate India in the shorter term to have a bigger impact on adoption than price - though there is a limit, especially with the latter, as to how much adaption can go on without impacting price.

I will repeat, as much as it may sound like I know what I'm talking about remember this is a speculation forum...

[DaRude]

Someone trying to crash btc-e? look at btc orders

[Vycid]

Word on the street: India.
And they hate being out done by China.
$1300 next week

Source please.  Hell, you can't even legally import gold into India.  I don't think Indian regulators will take too kindly to Bitcoin, but I could be wrong.  I don't know why India didn't jump in earlier .. compared to China, they have a much higher English literacy rate so you'd think they'd already be all over the existing exchanges.

They will not take kindly to Bitcoin at all. India's balance of trade has been suffering due to their gold imports, and since I'm guessing most Bitcoins are outside Indian borders, a Bitcoin craze will just worsen that problem.

However, Indian regulators are breathtakingly slow to act, and often ineffectual when they do. It is conceivable that India will "come online" before their government even grasps the concept.

The important difference between India and China is that China has experienced much, much greater recent growth in its middle class. It's only rich and middle class folks who have the disposable income to buy bitcoins with, and so there are many more potential buyers in China than India.

It's not reasonable to expect a second "China effect" out of India. Our attention now should be focused on Wall Street.

Seems like a reasonable assessment (I am no expert on India so I'm not really qualified to endorse or counter it) and I agree there is unlikely to be the same kind of proportion of middle class Indians as have been Chinese buying in as a speculative investment.  Where India does I think have greater shorter term promise is in remittances and as the cellphone revolution continues, as mobile money such as M-Pesa is doing in Kenya.

Just like I anticipate the David Woo comments yesterday are more likely to have a bigger impact on businesses considering adaption than on price I anticipate India in the shorter term to have a bigger impact on adoption than price - though there is a limit, especially with the latter, as to how much adaption can go on without impacting price.

I will repeat, as much as it may sound like I know what I'm talking about remember this is a speculation forum...

That's a good point. Remittances are a big immediate application for Bitcoin.

It's important to remember, though, that the asymmetry of international Bitcoin-to-cash transactions is the reason they're valuable in the first place. Once those Bitcoins leave the US (for example) and are sent to India, you can't really get them back out of India without wiring money to an Indian exchange. So it's not a closed loop and therefore you expect bitcoins to be cheaper in India if they're being used for remittance - unless there's more organic Indian demand for bitcoins than there is in the US or wherever.

To illustrate - imagine lots of expatriated Indians are sending bitcoins home. Lots of family members are cashing these out for their local currency (Rupees). The market in India is experiencing a glut in the supply of bitcoins, and the price drops.

Arbitrageurs will spring into action, buying up bitcoins for Rupees, selling them for dollars on Western exchanges, exchanging the dollars back into Rupees, and wiring them to India.

However, the price differential will never shrink (at equilibrium) below the costs of arbitrage. Unless it is somehow cheaper for the arbitrageurs to wire that money to India than it is for the expatriates, Bitcoin will not offer advantages except perhaps speed.

[rezurect]

Word on the street: India.
And they hate being out done by China.
$1300 next week

Source please.  Hell, you can't even legally import gold into India.  I don't think Indian regulators will take too kindly to Bitcoin, but I could be wrong.  I don't know why India didn't jump in earlier .. compared to China, they have a much higher English literacy rate so you'd think they'd already be all over the existing exchanges.

They will not take kindly to Bitcoin at all. India's balance of trade has been suffering due to their gold imports, and since I'm guessing most Bitcoins are outside Indian borders, a Bitcoin craze will just worsen that problem.

However, Indian regulators are breathtakingly slow to act, and often ineffectual when they do. It is conceivable that India will "come online" before their government even grasps the concept.

The important difference between India and China is that China has experienced much, much greater recent growth in its middle class. It's only rich and middle class folks who have the disposable income to buy bitcoins with, and so there are many more potential buyers in China than India.

It's not reasonable to expect a second "China effect" out of India. Our attention now should be focused on Wall Street.

Seems like a reasonable assessment (I am no expert on India so I'm not really qualified to endorse or counter it) and I agree there is unlikely to be the same kind of proportion of middle class Indians as have been Chinese buying in as a speculative investment.  Where India does I think have greater shorter term promise is in remittances and as the cellphone revolution continues, as mobile money such as M-Pesa is doing in Kenya.

Just like I anticipate the David Woo comments yesterday are more likely to have a bigger impact on businesses considering adaption than on price I anticipate India in the shorter term to have a bigger impact on adoption than price - though there is a limit, especially with the latter, as to how much adaption can go on without impacting price.

I will repeat, as much as it may sound like I know what I'm talking about remember this is a speculation forum...

Dont even expect a blip on the charts contributed by India. The Indian subforum/and trading sites are proof enough.
The default saving mode is Gold, and Bitcoin wont be trusted as much as gold anytime soon.
At the most we might have around a 1000 adopters in India by now.

Whats worse is you can't wire money to International Exchanges from India (easily/legally). So even the adopters find it hard to get their hands on btc. OTC subforum trades are the main go. No Mtgox,btc-e or stamp buying till the sites start accepting Rupee wires. The trading is within the subforum mostly.
The demand for btc has spawned a few local trading sites but everybodys waiting for some major exchange to add support.
The first step would be to get any exchange to support btc buying from India.

[ChartBuddy]

[Nemo1024]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=359588.0

It's their first mention. When Congress discussed Bitcoin or when it took off from 120 to 1120, they kept silent.

[TERA]

The daily charts look horrible - EMA violated, MACD down, parabolic sar flipped, RSI below 70. But it looks like perhaps we're still being supported by "choo choo mofo" trendline we've had since day 1 of ATH break. I wonder if this trendline could slowly drive us to ATH? This would probably be the last breakout since that trend would be moving too slow to keep up with any significant higher levels.

[JimboToronto]

cavirtex has a back log of verification's.. what steam are you people talking about depleting? I think if anything the members joining into the btc world are growing steadily.

Not all of the people awaiting verification at Virtex are noobs.

I'd already bought and mostly hoarded 125 coins from Virtex before last spring's bubble  popped.

In October, with the price still below $180, I freed up $10,000.00 to buy more coins, hoping to get at least another 50 coins. I felt Bitcoin was ready for a massive rally and didn't want to miss the train.

It seems they'd changed their rules. No more anonymous 2-hour cash deposits at a cost of $3. Instead, they said it would take 3-5 business days each for verification and money transfer. I'm still waiting to be verified.

They wouldn't accept any of my photo ID, not even my most recent seniors card. I haven't had a drivers license since 1966. The only thing they would accept was a provincial photo ID card with an estimated delivery time of 4-6 weeks.  I offered to send a notarized letter from my lawyer to verify my identity and address, but they wouldn't even give me the courtesy of a response. I sent them a copy of my new ID 3 weeks ago which they verified the next day, but I'm still waiting for account verification.

If I'd known it would have been this much of a hassle and taken this long, I would have gone straight to Localbitcoins and gladly paid an extra 10% to purchase immediately. By the time I did, the price had already more than doubled, but at least I was obtaining more coins which have more than doubled in price since.

No, not all of the people awaiting verification at Virtex are noobs. Many are disgruntled long-time customers who are being treated like crap.

[MicroFi]

I'm holding my breath for the next couple of days.
If you have a look at the 30 day charts, we've already created a double top around 1.2, but are also currently in the process of creating a double bottom at around 1.0.

Only time will tell where the breakout is going to be ...

[solex]

The daily charts look horrible - EMA violated, MACD down, parabolic sar flipped, RSI below 70. But it looks like perhaps we're still being supported by "choo choo mofo" trendline we've had since day 1 of ATH break. I wonder if this trendline could slowly drive us to ATH? This would probably be the last breakout since that trend would be moving too slow to keep up with any significant higher levels.

And meanwhile Stamp chews through $1000 yet again. Bitcoin chews up TA as well.

[JimboToronto]

Flagpole and pennant?

[Le Happy Merchant]

That's a good point. Remittances are a big immediate application for Bitcoin.

To illustrate - imagine lots of expatriated Indians are sending bitcoins home. Lots of family members are cashing these out for their local currency (Rupees). The market in India is experiencing a glut in the supply of bitcoins, and the price drops.

Arbitrageurs will spring into action, buying up bitcoins for Rupees, selling them for dollars on Western exchanges, exchanging the dollars back into Rupees, and wiring them to India.

However, the price differential will never shrink (at equilibrium) below the costs of arbitrage. Unless it is somehow cheaper for the arbitrageurs to wire that money to India than it is for the expatriates, Bitcoin will not offer advantages except perhaps speed.

People in india would probably be willing to sell BTC for USD, as USD can be used on the street in India quite easily.

[traderCJ]

It's not reasonable to expect a second "China effect" out of India. Our attention now should be focused on Wall Street.

Truer words have never been spoken.

[sumantso]

USD can be used on the street in India quite easily.

No, it can't.

[gizmoh]

The daily charts look horrible - EMA violated, MACD down, parabolic sar flipped, RSI below 70. But it looks like perhaps we're still being supported by "choo choo mofo" trendline we've had since day 1 of ATH break. I wonder if this trendline could slowly drive us to ATH? This would probably be the last breakout since that trend would be moving too slow to keep up with any significant higher levels.

And meanwhile Stamp chews through $1000 yet again. Bitcoin chews up TA as well.

when TA doesn't look good and fear the tide may turn, those big whales who follow TA will want to realize that profit. That is why bulls are getting beaten on every rally they try to make since yesterday. 1100 is still resisting..

[rpietila]

The daily charts look horrible - EMA violated, MACD down, parabolic sar flipped, RSI below 70. But it looks like perhaps we're still being supported by "choo choo mofo" trendline we've had since day 1 of ATH break. I wonder if this trendline could slowly drive us to ATH? This would probably be the last breakout since that trend would be moving too slow to keep up with any significant higher levels.

Technical people have done absolutely horribly in the past in this forum. I don't know of anyone who has made more bitcoins compared to buy&hold over any extended period of time (even 12 months, which does not prove anything really).

Yes - I mean it: I don't know any technical trader who has not lost money, meaning that all his effort has been in vain and harmful, compared to one who just holds.

[seleme]

The daily charts look horrible - EMA violated, MACD down, parabolic sar flipped, RSI below 70. But it looks like perhaps we're still being supported by "choo choo mofo" trendline we've had since day 1 of ATH break. I wonder if this trendline could slowly drive us to ATH? This would probably be the last breakout since that trend would be moving too slow to keep up with any significant higher levels.

Technical people have done absolutely horribly in the past in this forum. I don't know of anyone who has made more bitcoins compared to buy&hold over any extended period of time (even 12 months, which does not prove anything really).

Yes - I mean it: I don't know any technical trader who has not lost money, meaning that all his effort has been in vain and harmful, compared to one who just holds.

If I did buy and hold I'd still have 7 BTC. I didn't, I traded like there's no tomorrow (alts vs btc mainly) and if everything goes as planned I'd probably own 300-400 BTC some time Q1 2014. 200 almost guaranteed if I'd be live at that time.

It had nothing with TA though. Making money on alt pumps and dumps has heck all with TA, it's much easier than that.

[ChartBuddy]

[rpietila]

The daily charts look horrible - EMA violated, MACD down, parabolic sar flipped, RSI below 70. But it looks like perhaps we're still being supported by "choo choo mofo" trendline we've had since day 1 of ATH break. I wonder if this trendline could slowly drive us to ATH? This would probably be the last breakout since that trend would be moving too slow to keep up with any significant higher levels.

Technical people have done absolutely horribly in the past in this forum. I don't know of anyone who has made more bitcoins compared to buy&hold over any extended period of time (even 12 months, which does not prove anything really).

Yes - I mean it: I don't know any technical trader who has not lost money, meaning that all his effort has been in vain and harmful, compared to one who just holds.

If I did buy and hold I'd still have 7 BTC. I didn't, I traded like there's no tomorrow (alts vs btc mainly) and if everything goes as planned I'd probably own 300-400 BTC some time Q1 2014. 200 almost guaranteed if I'd be live at that time.

It had nothing with TA though. Making money on alt pumps and dumps has heck all with TA, it's much easier than that.

Calculating future returns based on past successes of pump and dump schemes... Never seen such delusion in my life!

Throw this to my face when you make your BTC300-400.

[traderCJ]

The daily charts look horrible - EMA violated, MACD down, parabolic sar flipped, RSI below 70. But it looks like perhaps we're still being supported by "choo choo mofo" trendline we've had since day 1 of ATH break. I wonder if this trendline could slowly drive us to ATH? This would probably be the last breakout since that trend would be moving too slow to keep up with any significant higher levels.

Technical people have done absolutely horribly in the past in this forum. I don't know of anyone who has made more bitcoins compared to buy&hold over any extended period of time (even 12 months, which does not prove anything really).

Yes - I mean it: I don't know any technical trader who has not lost money, meaning that all his effort has been in vain and harmful, compared to one who just holds.

If I did buy and hold I'd still have 7 BTC. I didn't, I traded like there's no tomorrow (alts vs btc mainly) and if everything goes as planned I'd probably own 300-400 BTC some time Q1 2014. 200 almost guaranteed if I'd be live at that time.

It had nothing with TA though. Making money on alt pumps and dumps has heck all with TA, it's much easier than that.

Hmm 7 BTC -> 300-400 BTC is pretty extreme, however I do agree that alts are the way to go with a portion of one's stash.  My strategy is focus on the ones with unique features and you'll do just fine.  What is interesting is that they tend to act like an extreme version of BTC.  BTC down -> ALTs way, way down .. BTC up -> ALTs way, way up.  I  had hoped they would act as a decent hedge but they're pretty much the opposite.  In any event, they serve their purpose.

rpietila: I agree, I think those forecasts are an order of magnitude off, however .. if one were to go from 7 -> 300-400 in alts I'd say it's more luck than anything else.