Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mb300sd]

bitcoin neds immodium... #nomoredumps #savingmynihgt

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[MAbtc]

I rode that bump from 600-640 (BTCE) but am mostly out again. I don't know what the hell is going on.

[TERA]

And at least 9/10 of these buy walls are not real investors but bots and traders playing the game 'follow the market leader and make profits' - it is all completely liquid and changes when btcchina moves - there will always be enough dumpers for every wall.

China's not leading, it's empty. Its looks more like bots correcting to match other exchanges than any trading going on.

I've been watching all of the order books and charts for days and every movement of btcchina is immediately followed by the same movement in other exchanges.

TERA is right. When BtcChina moves, the other exchanges move with it. When it stays still, the other exchange keep going in the direction of momentum.

I bought back 100% BTC. But this feels like a complete house of cards to me. Unless this can sustain until new fiat can come into the market. That is the only thing that can save the bitcoin price at this time.

There is now over 10 million in margin trading on Bitfinex, with the average loan rate of over 200%!  How long can these traders afford to pay that premium on their money?  It looks absolutely insane right now.

My guess is that many of them bought at 380-500, are up a ton, and waiting for the perfect moment to dump. It could have also been something to do with the issues on bitfinex.

[humanitee]

And at least 9/10 of these buy walls are not real investors but bots and traders playing the game 'follow the market leader and make profits' - it is all completely liquid and changes when btcchina moves - there will always be enough dumpers for every wall.

China's not leading, it's empty. Its looks more like bots correcting to match other exchanges than any trading going on.

I've been watching all of the order books and charts for days and every movement of btcchina is immediately followed by the same movement in other exchanges.

TERA is right. When BtcChina moves, the other exchanges move with it. When it stays still, the other exchange keep going in the direction of momentum.

I bought back 100% BTC. But this feels like a complete house of cards to me. Unless this can sustain until new fiat can come into the market. That is the only thing that can save the bitcoin price at this time.

There is now over 10 million in margin trading on Bitfinex, with the average loan rate of over 200%!  How long can these traders afford to pay that premium on their money?  It looks absolutely insane right now.

Wow, thanks for the information. Interesting weekend ahead, that's for sure.

[windjc]

I rode that bump from 600-640 (BTCE) but am mostly out again. I don't know what the hell is going on.

There is something really bizarre about the market right now. I mean, just like that weird wall that came through (that I am so PISSED I did not buy into because I had to leave for a meeting!!!) and the strangeness over in China that noone really knows the impact of.

I mean, more and more I am getting the sense that MOST of China is priced in the markets now.

But that crazy leveraging on Bitfinex, by probably a lot of noobs and idiots, without any new fiat coming in because of the weekend and then Christmas week - it spells lower lower lower.

[vdcc]

I rode that bump from 600-640 (BTCE) but am mostly out again. I don't know what the hell is going on.

Bots took over, that's what's going on

[Loaded]

Bought out 3 large hodlers off exchange. Enjoying a short vacation in China, still have a few M in assets on me.

[adamstgBit]

And at least 9/10 of these buy walls are not real investors but bots and traders playing the game 'follow the market leader and make profits' - it is all completely liquid and changes when btcchina moves - there will always be enough dumpers for every wall.

China's not leading, it's empty. Its looks more like bots correcting to match other exchanges than any trading going on.

I've been watching all of the order books and charts for days and every movement of btcchina is immediately followed by the same movement in other exchanges.

TERA is right. When BtcChina moves, the other exchanges move with it. When it stays still, the other exchange keep going in the direction of momentum.

I bought back 100% BTC. But this feels like a complete house of cards to me. Unless this can sustain until new fiat can come into the market. That is the only thing that can save the bitcoin price at this time.

There is now over 10 million in margin trading on Bitfinex, with the average loan rate of over 200%!  How long can these traders afford to pay that premium on their money?  It looks absolutely insane right now.

My guess is that many of them bought at 380-500, are up a ton, and waiting for the perfect moment to dump. It could have also been something to do with the issues on bitfinex.

my guess is that this is BTC not PND

[SheHadMANHands]

Bought out 3 large hodlers off exchange. Enjoying a short vacation in China, still have a few M in assets on me.

It's official.  It's gone big..

everyone is hodling.

[adamstgBit]

my trade was much fail

come on sell some Bits & buy some DOge people

[jojo69]

Bought out 3 large hodlers off exchange. Enjoying a short vacation in China, still have a few M in assets on me.

It's official.  It's gone big..

everyone is hodling.

except clearly they were not hodlers

[MAbtc]

On that initial drop today, BTCChina dropped like 8-8.5%. Gox dropped like 17%. 5x the volume on Gox. (just ballparking looking at charts)

WTF....

[adamstgBit]

On that initial drop today, BTCChina dropped like 8-8.5%. Gox dropped like 17%. 5x the volume on Gox. (just ballparking looking at charts)

WTF....

virtex is a bunch of hodler as well

not fair 

[windjc]

On that initial drop today, BTCChina dropped like 8-8.5%. Gox dropped like 17%. 5x the volume on Gox. (just ballparking looking at charts)

WTF....

exactly. house. of. cards.

The ONLY thing I can see saving this market is a lot of offline purchases like the one Loaded did and new money coming from the exchange from big hands waiting for an entry point.

But those are freaking loooooong odds.  If this wasn't going into Christmas week, I'd have more faith.

I mean, right now it only take ONE large hand to liquidate in China and the market will crash. I bet 2000 coins would do it.

[MAbtc]

On that initial drop today, BTCChina dropped like 8-8.5%. Gox dropped like 17%. 5x the volume on Gox. (just ballparking looking at charts)

WTF....

virtex is a bunch of hodler as well

not fair 

But the dynamic is just insane. Looking at the volume and price movement at BTCChina vs Gox.

Someone earlier said this is a house of cards. Exactly right. I can buy back at a nice profit right now but this is.... I can't help the feeling that I will get slaughtered soon after.

[MAbtc]

On that initial drop today, BTCChina dropped like 8-8.5%. Gox dropped like 17%. 5x the volume on Gox. (just ballparking looking at charts)

WTF....

exactly. house. of. cards.

The ONLY thing I can see saving this market is a lot of offline purchases like the one Loaded did and new money coming from the exchange from big hands waiting for an entry point.

But those are freaking loooooong odds.  If this wasn't going into Christmas week, I'd have more faith.

I mean, right now it only take ONE large hand to liquidate in China and the market will crash. I bet 2000 coins would do it.

So it was you who said it. 

Yeah, I am sweating right now....

[Searing]

On that initial drop today, BTCChina dropped like 8-8.5%. Gox dropped like 17%. 5x the volume on Gox. (just ballparking looking at charts)

WTF....

exactly. house. of. cards.

The ONLY thing I can see saving this market is a lot of offline purchases like the one Loaded did and new money coming from the exchange from big hands waiting for an entry point.

But those are freaking loooooong odds.  If this wasn't going into Christmas week, I'd have more faith.

I mean, right now it only take ONE large hand to liquidate in China and the market will crash. I bet 2000 coins would do it.

yeah if btc china is really toast ....it will sink in a day or two after jan 1st 2014.....then if we can stabilize at 500 usd coin I'd be thrilled

that is a lot of folk to yank out of bitcoin at one time (unless there are alternate reasons or ways for them to use/move btc I'm not aware of ...noob that I am)

Searing

[aminorex]

There is now over 10 million in margin trading on Bitfinex, with the average loan rate of over 200%!  How long can these traders afford to pay that premium on their money?  It looks absolutely insane right now.

The rate reflects volatility.  Notice that the BFX sentiment index is bearish.  I suspect that the weekend dump pattern has played out, and those bets will not pay off much.  The 4000 coin dump earlier didn't seem to harm the price levels much.  Absorbing that much coin so well... draw your own conclusions.  We're still assimilating the resulting vacuum, however.  I'm anticipating basing action consolidating to the 600-620 range, ending in a slow rise to 680-700, but no massive shifts without a polarizing catalyst.  Bobby Lee sorts his issues with the princelings, and we glide up maybe, but no serious choo-choo coming out of China unless those ex-hodlers start to feel some remorse.

[JorgeStolfi]

except clearly they were not hodlers

Here is a theory: those who saw BTC as a way to earn USD have already left the market, too volatile
and unpredictable.  Those who remain are people whose goal is to grab as much BTC as theyr can.
So they are all trying to trick each other into selling their BTC, while holding fast to their own.

[adamstgBit]

There is now over 10 million in margin trading on Bitfinex, with the average loan rate of over 200%!  How long can these traders afford to pay that premium on their money?  It looks absolutely insane right now.

The rate reflects volatility.  Notice that the BFX sentiment index is bearish.  I suspect that the weekend dump pattern has played out, and those bets will not pay off much.  The 4000 coin dump earlier didn't seem to harm the price levels much.  Absorbing that much coin so well... draw your own conclusions.  We're still assimilating the resulting vacuum, however.  I'm anticipating basing action consolidating to the 600-620 range, ending in a slow rise to 680-700, but no massive shifts without a polarizing catalyst.  Bobby Lee sorts his issues with the princelings, and we glide up maybe, but no serious choo-choo coming out of China unless those ex-hodlers start to feel some remorse.

+1

but i'd prepare for some bad news.... and some L'e Cheapo coins