Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

Looks like a bull trap.

Rally! hmmmm  I'm confused ...the ways of btc movement are a mystery to me!

you and everybody else buddy

[MikeH]

annnnd $700

annnnd it's gone

[seleme]

people giving up on waiting for the dump

I still didnt give up, I have orders all the way to 400

Me too, it's an awful time of the year to expect a rally these days really.

[MicroFi]

Gox going for the > $700
But what swings!

[Searing]

annnnd $700

yep...and we're back up from 634 to 700 for no particular reason that I can fathom (hmmm digs out the voodoo for dummies book looks for chapter on bitcoin...ah yes the gerbil entrails gambit..that would do it)

[TERA]

Such swing. Much mystery.



What'll happen next?  Surely different this time.

[outofservice]

Do I have this right?..

Bull Trap: price starts to rise quickly causing ppl to panic buy then shortly after the price dips much lower. They get trapped with the higher price btc instead of buying it on the dip

[ChartBuddy]

[jojo69]

yawn

[rezurect]

Im a bear: and i'm trapped...

[windjc]

So are we getting ready to break the downtrend? Or is this overoptimism leading into more downside?

It feels like the market is at a crossroads now.

Reasons that it continues down are:
A. More bad news from China - like banning CYN withdrawals after a certain prescribed date.
B. Dumping on China once people there realize their are no more options
C. Arbitraging or dumping on other exchanges causing leveraged positions to sell as well
D. Bad news outside of China

Reasons that it continues up:
A. No more bad news out of China. Worst is behind us. Chinese that are holding are going to continue to hold.
B. New fiat to exchanges this week as prices are lower.
C. Bid sums rising
D. More good news like Overstock.com, etc.
E. Still in uptrend, overall mood is positive.


It seems about a 50/50% call to me at this point.

[samsam]

Do I have this right?..

Bull Trap: price starts to rise quickly causing ppl to panic buy then shortly after the price dips much lower. They get trapped with the higher price btc instead of buying it on the dip

Yep.

There is also a bear trap: people sell a lot of btc quickly and then begin buying at the low en masse.

[windjc]

Such swing. Much mystery.



What'll happen next?  Surely different this time.

If no new bad news comes out of China, what is going to drive the price down this time. One might argue we are no longer overbought.

[TERA]

The local spike closed before the news came out.

And this rally is still being led by btcchina. That should tell you enough.

[outofservice]

Do I have this right?..

Bull Trap: price starts to rise quickly causing ppl to panic buy then shortly after the price dips much lower. They get trapped with the higher price btc instead of buying it on the dip

Yep.

There is also a bear trap: people sell a lot of btc quickly and then begin buying at the low en masse.

Thanks. Learning as I go.
Just to verify the bear trap: they panic sell thinking it's going to go down and then it rises?

so basically just opposites

[windjc]

The local spike closed before the news came out.

True but we were forming a pennant. Could it have broken up without the news?

[Searing]

So are we getting ready to break the downtrend? Or is this overoptimism leading into more downside?

It feels like the market is at a crossroads now.

Reasons that it continues down are:
A. More bad news from China - like banning CYN withdrawals after a certain prescribed date.
B. Dumping on China once people there realize their are no more options
C. Arbitraging or dumping on other exchanges causing leveraged positions to sell as well
D. Bad news outside of China

Reasons that it continues up:
A. No more bad news out of China. Worst is behind us. Chinese that are holding are going to continue to hold.
B. New fiat to exchanges this week as prices are lower.
C. Bid sums rising
D. More good news like Overstock.com, etc.
E. Still in uptrend, overall mood is positive.


It seems about a 50/50% call to me at this point.

yeah 50/50 the motley fool site calls us all nuts if that helps tip it one way or another any....(avast!..... my fellow lemmings the cliff is that way -====>)  

[jojo69]

sit tight kids

chances are you will get your strike price

nothing guarantees a loss...like an actual, actualized loss

panic moves are the grist of the whales

[outofservice]

Such swing. Much mystery.



What'll happen next?  Surely different this time.

If no new bad news comes out of China, what is going to drive the price down this time. One might argue we are no longer overbought.

I'm looking at these two blue boxes and they're the same pattern and we're on a downtrend. so would you continue to read it as it will continue to dip and follow trend/pattern?

[samsam]

Do I have this right?..

Bull Trap: price starts to rise quickly causing ppl to panic buy then shortly after the price dips much lower. They get trapped with the higher price btc instead of buying it on the dip

Yep.

There is also a bear trap: people sell a lot of btc quickly and then begin buying at the low en masse.

Thanks. Learning as I go.
Just to verify the bear trap: they panic sell thinking it's going to go down and then it rises?

so basically just opposites

Yes. They are are mirror strategies.