Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[MicroFi]

[dani]

I can't fine the person to quote, but he said whenever everyone bets on one trend the opposite will happen instead. He is clearly right, so this one feels good:

Might have been me:

The only thing I have consistently seen here is when the crowd tips one way, Bitcoin is quite happy to go the other.

That said - I don't have prophetic pretensions - I just know that it's very hard to call it.

I am still holding some 'play fiat' (it is the weekend and just before Christmas after all) and I have been holding it for a few days.

I think that is wise, but the general bearish mood is unusually strong - and our worst crashes have been when we are most bullish.

It was you!   I agree with you, good to be ready to buy some cheap coins this year.. but whenever people get too excited on cheap coins, they mostly end up not getting any. Hodl!

[mmitech]

so what if i pump the Price? will you follow and buy after me making my coins more valuable ?  


or maybe I should dump and use the cash to buy even cheaper 

[windjc]

So, who is buying in China? Is this undecided fiat that has finally decided to buy BTC? Must be.

[rpietila]

pit pat piffy

wing wong wang

ty, very informative

He just inspired me to post about our new dinner set. It is a quite airy, elegant design with a touch of platinum in place of the usual gold. Just hauled it from the store yesterday

[ChartBuddy]

[MicroFi]

pit pat piffy

wing wong wang

ty, very informative

He just inspired me to post about our new dinner set. It is a quite airy, elegant design with a touch of platinum in place of the usual gold. Just hauled it from the store yesterday

Just out of curiosity:
Did you sell yesterday evening when Gox was around 630?

[rpietila]

pit pat piffy

wing wong wang

ty, very informative

He just inspired me to post about our new dinner set. It is a quite airy, elegant design with a touch of platinum in place of the usual gold. Just hauled it from the store yesterday

Just out of curiosity:
Did you sell yesterday evening when Gox was around 630?

No, it started to feel that it would go up, even 800 possibly. I have lots of coin to sell if it reaches 750-800 level. Remembering that the long term trend is only about 450, it is quite easy money to sell now provided that you have the balls to wait for the buyback which you cannot guarantee when it will happen (AND of course there is a 10-20% chance that it will never happen).

[wachtwoord]

No, it started to feel that it would go up, even 800 possibly. I have lots of coin to sell if it reaches 750-800 level. Remembering that the long term trend is only about 450, it is quite easy money to sell now provided that you have the balls to wait for the buyback which you cannot guarantee when it will happen (AND of course there is a 10-20% chance that it will never happen).

And that 10-20% (which I estimate more conservatively) is THE reason why selling is bad. The upside is so much more attractive than the relatively small gain of trading in and out.

[mmitech]

forum under DDOS ? I get the 502 error !!!!

holy yes I think it is, I get the bad gateway error few time before getting to the page, something is going on    BUY BUY BUY

[MicroFi]

forum under DDOS ? I get the 502 error !!!!

Me too.
Whose sell wall is that on Gox, by the way? STOP IT!

[tarmi]

time for panic.

[rpietila]

Sell at 650, and buy back at 450 => 44% more coins.
Sell at 650, and stop-loss buy at 1170 => 44% less coins.

So if you estimate that the pullback has any greater than 50% probability to happen, you should sell a part of your holdings. Simple as that.

[mmitech]

Sell at 650, and buy back at 450 => 44% more coins.
Sell at 650, and stop-loss buy at 1170 => 44% less coins.

So if you estimate that the pullback has any greater than 50% probability to happen, you should sell a part of your holdings. Simple as that.

don't listen to that guy, if you are not a good trader the best move you can do is to hold, 90% if his calls were false or were intended to be false, but I doubt that they were intended .. he just doesn't have a clue and pretend to be the "Pro trader".

there is speculation and there is misinformation, and the way he post his "predictions" is not in speculative mode but like in informing mode.

[tutkarz]

Sell at 650, and buy back at 450 => 44% more coins.
Sell at 650, and stop-loss buy at 1170 => 44% less coins.

So if you estimate that the pullback has any greater than 50% probability to happen, you should sell a part of your holdings. Simple as that.

you should add to the equation that by forcing price down, all your remaining coins are worth less and it will take longer for them to recover. To me it's not worth it especially from merchant's point of view.

[oda.krell]

Sell at 650, and buy back at 450 => 44% more coins.
Sell at 650, and stop-loss buy at 1170 => 44% less coins.

So if you estimate that the pullback has any greater than 50% probability to happen, you should sell a part of your holdings. Simple as that.

Don't oversimplify things, please. You have a point, but you can't conclude your argument with: "simple as that". You make at least one (implicit) assumption: a linear risk/reward preference.

[rpietila]

The original post contained more explanation but then disappeared due to 502

[bitcoinvest]

speculation on what? how can you predict the chaos?
i've been reading this section for a long time and what i did was to write down if i had heard the opinions here, where would i be today...
so the result from every time was only to loose more and more...

HOLD YOUR BITCOINS PEOPLE!!!! Lot of people here write things just to make you sell your bitcoins....

Have a nice day!!!

[medialab101]

Doctor... The patient has flatlined!!     

[ChartBuddy]