Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

For me, those two facts are signals that this downtrend is coming to an end, thoughts?  

We will go below the long-term exponential trend, which is now at $450, and spend a long time there.

Although the trend rises fast (double every 99 days), I have a full conviction that we will go below $500 again, likely $400, unlikely $300.

Of course the capitulation can only come after "everybody" has bought back in, so please do as you wish I am prepared to wait until March. If it happens next week I am all good, but then the price will again go up, and there will be yet another crash later, before we resume uptrend.

[1714867367]

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[1714867367]

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[granathus]

For me, those two facts are signals that this downtrend is coming to an end, thoughts?  

We will go below the long-term exponential trend, which is now at $450, and spend a long time there.

Although the trend rises fast (double every 99 days), I have a full conviction that we will go below $500 again, likely $400, unlikely $300.

Of course the capitulation can only come after "everybody" has bought back in, so please do as you wish I am prepared to wait until March. If it happens next week I am all good, but then the price will again go up, and there will be yet another crash later, before we resume uptrend.

I gotta agree with this.

[nagnagnag2]

Incoming Dump!

wtf? how do you know that I need to go to the toilette? 

yeah, but that would hardly be incoming, rather outgoing ??

its a incoming for the toilette....

[samson]

We will go below the long-term exponential trend, which is now at $450, and spend a long time there.

Although the trend rises fast (double every 99 days), I have a full conviction that we will go below $500 again, likely $400, unlikely $300.

I love it when you make bold predictions.

[lebing]

I'm starting to feel a little bullish, i think this downtrend is coming to an end. Sure we can go a little down again in a last leg attempt but i doubt we'll see $450 again.

The right time to sell was at the $1200-$800 range, now i think is time to buy. It's too risky for my taste going 50% - 100% fiat, so personally, i'm 80% BTC, 20% fiat.

I would love for another sharp drop so i can increase my BTC stash, same of all of you i think, but bid book on Gox is now at ATH, this is quite bullish for me:



Now i can see a 'P' formation on the daily charts:



For me, those two facts are signals that this downtrend is coming to an end, thoughts?  

In the short/ mid term this looks pretty correct to me. We are not going down below 450 again unless something really bad happens.

[RandyMagnum]

It's not particularly bold unless a disruptive X factor of news comes along.

[rpietila]

We will go below the long-term exponential trend, which is now at $450, and spend a long time there.

Although the trend rises fast (double every 99 days), I have a full conviction that we will go below $500 again, likely $400, unlikely $300.

I love it when you make bold predictions.

If you think it goes below 300, I am willing to bet against you

[divenvy]

For me, those two facts are signals that this downtrend is coming to an end, thoughts?  

We will go below the long-term exponential trend, which is now at $450, and spend a long time there.

Although the trend rises fast (double every 99 days), I have a full conviction that we will go below $500 again, likely $400, unlikely $300.

Of course the capitulation can only come after "everybody" has bought back in, so please do as you wish I am prepared to wait until March. If it happens next week I am all good, but then the price will again go up, and there will be yet another crash later, before we resume uptrend.

I always like to see what you have to say and I am pretty impressed by your call on the last dip and bounce.  What is your take on the bear chart on the other thread in regards to coin days lost?

[samson]

We will go below the long-term exponential trend, which is now at $450, and spend a long time there.

Although the trend rises fast (double every 99 days), I have a full conviction that we will go below $500 again, likely $400, unlikely $300.

I love it when you make bold predictions.

If you think it goes below 300, I am willing to bet

I have no idea where the price is going but I fondly remember the time when you predicted the price would never go below $100 again. That was about 24 hours before the price dived below $100 on heavy volume.

Gambling on the results of my gambling in the markets would be way too crazy for me  

[rpietila]

I always like to see what you have to say and I am pretty impressed by your call on the last dip and bounce.  What is your take on the bear chart on the other thread in regards to coin days lost?

I think the most obvious reason why somebody would like to move ancient coins is in order to sell them.

[Ivanhoe]

Those ancient coins found an off exchange buyer, could be the deal here.

[rpietila]

If you think it goes below 300, I am willing to bet

I have no idea where the price is going but I fondly remember the time when you predicted the price would never go below $100 again. That was about 24 hours before the price dived below $100 on heavy volume.

Predicting the markets is making educated guesses about the probabilities of things happening. It becomes successful investing if you spot the +EV deals and act on them (and your skill is good enough to estimate the probabilities).

When I predicted no going below 100, my skill was not as good as now. I would have bet, and lost. (And I also lost by going 100% all-in before the dip). Now I am saying no going below 300. If it goes below, I lose the possible bet + I lose because my bids were too high. It does not mean that I find it unthinkable to go there. If I bet 2:1 for example, it means that I think the probability is anything less than 33%.

This was also the beef last spring, and many people have been ridiculing me for trying to (unsuccessfully) give them juicy odds for bets that I would have lost. Now I think it is bad behavior - just "no thanks" should be enough.

In the last dip I went 100% all in at $421, because that was my assessment of the lowest realistic price in Bitstamp that day after the previous close of 675. I lost, because it went to $382. Well, many lost much more by being even worse in predicting

[wachtwoord]

I always like to see what you have to say and I am pretty impressed by your call on the last dip and bounce.  What is your take on the bear chart on the other thread in regards to coin days lost?

I think the most obvious reason why somebody would like to move ancient coins is in order to sell them.

What about moving them into cold wallets? Doing general bookkeeping (dividing the coins into smaller denominated inputs to reflect to rise in purchasing power)?

[rpietila]

I always like to see what you have to say and I am pretty impressed by your call on the last dip and bounce.  What is your take on the bear chart on the other thread in regards to coin days lost?

I think the most obvious reason why somebody would like to move ancient coins is in order to sell them.

What about moving them into cold wallets? Doing general bookkeeping (dividing the coins into smaller denominated inputs to reflect to rise in purchasing power)?

[CryptStorm]

For me, those two facts are signals that this downtrend is coming to an end, thoughts? 

We will go below the long-term exponential trend, which is now at $450, and spend a long time there.

Although the trend rises fast (double every 99 days), I have a full conviction that we will go below $500 again, likely $400, unlikely $300.

Of course the capitulation can only come after "everybody" has bought back in, so please do as you wish I am prepared to wait until March. If it happens next week I am all good, but then the price will again go up, and there will be yet another crash later, before we resume uptrend.

I gotta agree with this.

+1 Like good ketchup, cheep coinz are worth the wait.

PS I believe a P-formation indicates short sellers taking profits, and is not a trend reversal or a bullish sentiment.

[elg]

@bitcoinslave, you can only see it in IE

[Odalv]

If you think it goes below 300, I am willing to bet

I have no idea where the price is going but I fondly remember the time when you predicted the price would never go below $100 again. That was about 24 hours before the price dived below $100 on heavy volume.

Predicting the markets is making educated guesses about the probabilities of things happening. It becomes successful investing if you spot the +EV deals and act on them (and your skill is good enough to estimate the probabilities).

When I predicted no going below 100, my skill was not as good as now. I would have bet, and lost. (And I also lost by going 100% all-in before the dip). Now I am saying no going below 300. If it goes below, I lose the possible bet + I lose because my bids were too high. It does not mean that I find it unthinkable to go there. If I bet 2:1 for example, it means that I think the probability is anything less than 33%.

This was also the beef last spring, and many people have been ridiculing me for trying to (unsuccessfully) give them juicy odds for bets that I would have lost. Now I think it is bad behavior - just "no thanks" should be enough.

In the last dip I went 100% all in at $421, because that was my assessment of the lowest realistic price in Bitstamp that day after the previous close of 675. I lost, because it went to $382. Well, many lost much more by being even worse in predicting

Your 20 BTC ?

[ChartBuddy]

[CryptStorm]

pure speculation here, but what do you guys/girls think are the chances that Loaded or similar has something to do with those old moved coins and they have potentially been sold/are going to be sold off an exchange, presumably to a Chinese buyer?

That seems pretty reasonable at first, but I thought he was going to buy coins?

He might have found someone who wanted to buy coins at too good a price though. Hmm...

[keewee]

pure speculation here, but what do you guys/girls think are the chances that Loaded or similar has something to do with those old moved coins and they have potentially been sold/are going to be sold off an exchange, presumably to a Chinese buyer?

That seems pretty reasonable at first, but I thought he was going to buy coins?

He might have found someone who wanted to buy coins at too good a price though. Hmm...

He is buying. But that means someone must be selling to him so they may have moved the coins. However, I'm not convinced the coins are going to cause the price crash that people are speculating on because those coins could have moved for any number of other reasons