Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

As others have pointed out, people buying things with bitcoins (whether through Bitpay or similar service, as seems to be generally the case, or by direct barter) is the same thing as selling them.  Besides acting to lower the price of bitcoin, that is the opposite of "hodling", right?

Ordinary people still have no reason to use bitcoins (rather than old money) to buy things on retailers like Overstock.  So that option should not bring more old money (USD etc) to the Bitcoin market.

Speculators and miners who want to leave the Bitcoin game now have the option to cash out in merchandise (at a few merchants) rather than in old money.  That only makes it a bit easier for them to decide to leave, and hence take old money out of the market.

So the Overstock news is "good news" only for True Believers, who did not need it to believe anyway...

A big brand using Bitcoin is good for marketing. More people will hear about it. So this should bring more "old money" to the bitcoin market.

Right. How someone could say that Overstock taking bitcoin payments is bad news is incomprehensible. It just goes to show you the Catch-22 many bitcoiners have rolling around in their brains.

[JorgeStolfi]

And much [of China's volume] was fake

"Fake volume" is someone (possibly the exchange owner) selling to himself, either through one account or multiple accounts.  I suspect that some 5.000 BTC of MtGox's volume was "fake" in this sense, intended to mask the low real volume and/or to convince naive traders that the price was going up.

Robots selling to robots is not "fake volume" if the robots belong to competing traders.

EDIT: 5.000 BTC of MtGox's daily volume

[Walsoraj]

Anybody know Baidu's total bitcoin sales?

[seleme]

Anybody know Baidu's total bitcoin sales?

Less than 1 BTC, I think.

[niothor]

1% of what goat spent at overstock

[windjc]

I did my overstock thing...

http://postimg.org/image/73v4rerip/


want to do $10k but ran out of time.

That's cool. You are a champion of bitcoin and I appreciate that.

[windjc]

And much [of China's volume] was fake

"Fake volume" is someone (possibly the exchange owner) selling to himself, either through one account or multiple accounts.  I suspect that some 5.000 BTC of MtGox's volume was "fake" in this sense, intended to mask the low real volume and/or to convince naive traders that the price was going up.

Robots selling to robots is not "fake volume" if the robots belong to competing traders.

EDIT: 5.000 BTC of MtGox's daily volume

Want to expand on why you think Bitcoin being adopted as a currency and form of payment is bad for bitcoin?

I wanna hear this. It should be fun.

[niothor]

And much [of China's volume] was fake

"Fake volume" is someone (possibly the exchange owner) selling to himself, either through one account or multiple accounts.  I suspect that some 5.000 BTC of MtGox's volume was "fake" in this sense, intended to mask the low real volume and/or to convince naive traders that the price was going up.

Robots selling to robots is not "fake volume" if the robots belong to competing traders.

EDIT: 5.000 BTC of MtGox's daily volume

Fake volume is when a chinese exchanger has 400 to 500 btc on the orderbook but claims volume of 50k /day

[damiano]

Lol that stamp dump

Huobi went the other way

I have no idea which way this will go by tomorrow. Could be anywhere, 50/50 for me for now.

Up !

[traderCJ]

Why is nothing happening? Overstock not enough to take us back to >1000? WTF?

Fiat must hit the exchanges first, so give it some time.

I think Overstock news isn't market moving news.
Its been in the works for some time,and the market tends to price things in b4 they happen.
it does give me more confidence to buy more cheap coins ( if coin ever cheap happen... come on poeple SELL MORE COINZ! )
at this point whats really going to move the market into a 10K + bubble is the news of random bank bail-outs or bail-ins or wtv global financial problems. slowly but surely more and more poeple will wake up to whats really going on, get mad, and invest in bitcoin paper wallets.

But why on the other hand every fart from China has bigger effect than these news? I would think that we are already 100% over it, but i have feeling we are not yet...?

PS: How can I help to create some global financial problems?  

Because nobody knows what the price is without China. China is responsible for the entire rise from $110. The silk road crash ended when China started buying. There are people who think even that the silk road crash would have continued lower without China, below $110, maybe all the way back to $60. Then China brought the price all the way up to $1250. For the past 3 months every exchange has simply followed the Chinese price like a slave. Now every time there is bad news the price just drops like a rock without any resistance. Then the price recovers because China started buying again - every time. People think "oh now China news has been factored in" but it hasn't. I STILL observe all exchanges following every movement of China like a salve - it is wired into all the bots and the strategies of all the traders - like an automated process. Anyone who thinks China isn't still leading is fooling themselves. So what happens if China is removed from the equation completely? Nobody knows where the drop would end, where real support on other exchanges would kick in, and what the true value is without China. It is some variable anywhere from $90 to $900. It is a mystery. Sure the news adds value but from what basis? Let's say overstock adds $50. $900 + $50 = $950. But also $90 + $50 = $140. Nobody knows so they are cautious.

Another source of bearishness is the long-term feasibility of relying on the good will of mining pools to "do the right thing".  When you see people pleading on reddit for miners to leave a pool in order to maintain some degree of decentralization in the mining infrastructure, you know you've got problems.  Many people who invested in Bitcoin don't realize how fragile it really is.  I didn't.  I'd like to see a Bitcoin that is impervious to a 51% attack, but that simply is not realistic.  People who have a fortune in Bitcoins must seriously ponder the implications of this.

[MikeH]

even if they don't get a lot of purchases in btc it is good marketing, I hadn't even heard of overstock.com

[traderCJ]

Lol that stamp dump

Huobi went the other way

I have no idea which way this will go by tomorrow. Could be anywhere, 50/50 for me for now.

When I see stamp leading a drop, it tells me people are taking fiat profits off the exchange, not trading.  Stamp is the place to go for that.  My hunch is those three big dumps we saw at 3:15, 10:45 and 17:15 PST were guys cashing out.  All triggered by the mining centralization issue, in my opinion.

[windjc]

Lol that stamp dump

Huobi went the other way

I have no idea which way this will go by tomorrow. Could be anywhere, 50/50 for me for now.

When I see stamp leading a drop, it tells me people are taking fiat profits off the exchange, not trading.  Stamp is the place to go for that.  My hunch is those three big dumps we saw at 3:15, 10:45 and 17:15 PST were guys cashing out.  All triggered by the mining centralization issue, in my opinion.

This mining centralization thing is ridiculous. Its not an issue for so many different various reasons, the most obvious one is who wants to take a gun and shoot themselves right between the eyes?  You find me that person who is also a powerful miner and I will start worrying too. Actually I won't. Because the whole issue is retarded mentally handicapped.

[JorgeStolfi]

Want to expand on why you think Bitcoin being adopted as a currency and form of payment is bad for bitcoin?

I wanna hear this. It should be fun.

OK, let me try.  Who is going to buy at Overstock using Bitcoin?

• a) Random Joe who has USD but no Bitcoin;
• b) Speculator who is trading in order to get hold of as much Bitcoin as he can;
• c) Speculator who is cashing out and leaving the market;
• d) Believer who is certain that 1 BTC will be worth 10,000 next year.
• e) Speculator who is trying to convince others to buy his bitcoins at higher price.

My guess is

• only a few of (c), namely those who would have bought at Overstock with USD anyway;
• only a few of (d), namely those who are willing to waste a few of their precious Bitcoins for the Good of the Cause;
• perhaps some (e);

but in all three cases the total amount of BTC spent will be small; my guess is a couple thousand BTC at most.  So the good news will flop when it becomes public that only 0.01% of Overstock's turnover is in BTC.  On the other hand, all three cases imply cash will leave the market, driving the price down.

[Walsoraj]

Anybody know Baidu's total bitcoin sales?

Less than 1 BTC, I think.

Hilarious.  Source?

[adamstgBit]

http://www.overstock.com/Jewelry-Watches/Miadora-10k-Rose-Gold-Morganite-and-Diamond-Accent-Ring/7647956/product.html

i'm gana buy a ring later its like 1/2 a bitcoin what a steal!


i like paying with bitcoin because, i'm all set up, i always have $$ on the exchange ready to buy 21million bitcoins at a moments notice 

[niothor]

Want to expand on why you think Bitcoin being adopted as a currency and form of payment is bad for bitcoin?

I wanna hear this. It should be fun.

OK, let me try.  Who is going to buy at Overstock using Bitcoin?

• a) Random Joe who has USD but no Bitcoin;

And here I stopped ,  how will average Joe with no BTC purchase something with BTC ?

Second , make your sig font a little bigger

Academic interest in biitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, rather skeptical of its longterm success.

So you never had some btc , you never traded but claim to know about how trade in btc works , and  the last part is no comment.[/list]

[windjc]

Want to expand on why you think Bitcoin being adopted as a currency and form of payment is bad for bitcoin?

I wanna hear this. It should be fun.

OK, let me try.  Who is going to buy at Overstock using Bitcoin?

• a) Random Joe who has USD but no Bitcoin;

The only way Random Joe gets bitcoin in the future is if he sees other people using it, sees applications that allow for him to easily get it and integrate it into his life. He has to have a place to spend it, now he does.

• b) Speculator who is trading in order to get hold of as much Bitcoin as he can;
• c) Speculator who is cashing out and leaving the market;
• d) Believer who is certain that 1 BTC will be worth 10,000 next year.

Yes, there are already examples of this.

• e) Speculator who is trying to convince others to buy his bitcoins at higher price.

Why are 3 of your 5 speculators. Is it your opinion that most people that own bitcoins are speculators?

My guess is

• only a few of (c), namely those who would have bought at Overstock with USD anyway;

Not in the future. It has to start somewhere. Is this not obvious or is it just a "never will" or "must happen all at once" thing for you?

• only a few of (d), namely those who are willing to waste a few of their precious Bitcoins for the Good of the Cause;

 Waste? If they can own something of value now, why hoard? Bitcoin has a value now.

• perhaps some (e);

but in all three cases the total amount of BTC spent will be small; my guess is a couple thousand BTC at most.  How do you know? Based on what would you say this? Is this just your speculative opinion?

So the good news will flop when it becomes public that only 0.01% of Overstock's turnover is in BTC. 
You think "Random Joe" looks at those stats?

On the other hand, all three cases imply cash will leave the market, driving the price down.

You sound like a speculator yourself. Which, if true, probably explains your opinions. You don't think bitcoin will be universally accepted (by that I mean at least a niche player in the financial industry) thus you feel threatened as a speculator by this news.

[traderCJ]

Lol that stamp dump

Huobi went the other way

I have no idea which way this will go by tomorrow. Could be anywhere, 50/50 for me for now.

When I see stamp leading a drop, it tells me people are taking fiat profits off the exchange, not trading.  Stamp is the place to go for that.  My hunch is those three big dumps we saw at 3:15, 10:45 and 17:15 PST were guys cashing out.  All triggered by the mining centralization issue, in my opinion.

This mining centralization thing is ridiculous. Its not an issue for so many different various reasons, the most obvious one is who wants to take a gun and shoot themselves right between the eyes?  You find me that person who is also a powerful miner and I will start worrying too. Actually I won't. Because the whole issue is retarded mentally handicapped.

If you're content relying on all "powerful miners" having the same interests as you do, there's nothing much more I can say.

[fotosonics]

Want to expand on why you think Bitcoin being adopted as a currency and form of payment is bad for bitcoin?

I wanna hear this. It should be fun.

OK, let me try.  Who is going to buy at Overstock using Bitcoin?

• a) Random Joe who has USD but no Bitcoin;
• b) Speculator who is trading in order to get hold of as much Bitcoin as he can;
• c) Speculator who is cashing out and leaving the market;
• d) Believer who is certain that 1 BTC will be worth 10,000 next year.
• e) Speculator who is trying to convince others to buy his bitcoins at higher price.

My guess is

• only a few of (c), namely those who would have bought at Overstock with USD anyway;
• only a few of (d), namely those who are willing to waste a few of their precious Bitcoins for the Good of the Cause;
• perhaps some (e);

but in all three cases the total amount of BTC spent will be small; my guess is a couple thousand BTC at most.  So the good news will flop when it becomes public that only 0.01% of Overstock's turnover is in BTC.  On the other hand, all three cases imply cash will leave the market, driving the price down.

I think the range of types of people is grossly limited. There are many who just want to be part of something new and exciting. Or people who have BTC and want to actively spend them on stuff they need. Not just people trying to get the edge on the market.

Meanwhile there is this