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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21177616 times)
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March 25, 2019, 02:31:20 AM

Would you be so kind as to enlighten me on slippage? In what way would it screw with trading?

I would assume the implication was that: if real volume be truly that large, then slippage should be much less than that experienced.
I understand the correlation between volume and slippage, but I'm not sure how exactly those contracts work as I've never used or read into them.

The particular trade that I found galling had me enter a stop loss at $xx93 (which was below a major support point).  The price fell through the support and the sell order executed at $xx20, which is $73 in slippage.

The most slippage I have previously experienced on breaking major support was $13 on Bitstamp at a much higher price (therefor far lower slippage in percentage terms).

This leads me to believe that either: (a) Bitmex has exceptionally poor liquidity or (b) their proprietary trading desk is front running trades or (c) they are deliberately discriminating against fish in the order book.

The net result is the same.

While there are some complexities around whether one uses the last, mark or index price as trigger, it really all comes out in the same place.  None of this should be impacted by the particular rules of the instrument, and this was not a liquidation (I have never been liquidated and don’t intend to start).

I have had a number of other trades on Bitmex where my slippage has been about 10x what I would expect.   Given that Bitmex supposedly has 10x the volume of Bitstamp and 10x liquidity, something is rotten in the State of Seychelles.  I would go so far as to say either they are front running their own customers or their organic volume is about 1% of what they claim.  

Makes sense. OR... maybe traders at Bitmex are *WAY* more prone to using leverage and stop loses which causes *HUGE* slippage due to "cascading" than Bitstamp traders. Think about it... it also makes some sense.

Something like this is what I was thinking too.  It may NOT cause as BIG of an effect to completely discount Hairy's criticism, but there could be some magnifying effect that happens with the use of leverage and margin trading that disproportionately causes the prices swings to be much greater.. and perhaps that would be because some BIGGER players (and it does not even have to be Bitmex, though logically they would seem to be the most likely suspect, because if some other BIGG players were doing it, then Bitmex would be able to verify what happened and develop ways to put a stop to it or at least ameliorate some of the effects) .... so yeah, the more that I write, through this thought process, the more I am coming over to Hairy's suspicions about the real cause, which is ultimately, way less liquidity than they claim to have...

I suppose that it would make a difference if it rises to 90% less liquidity or merely 50% less or some more innocent misrepresentation.  

Thr thing is we don't have enough information to reach a clear conclusion. Without it, there are several alternative plausible explanations. Who knows.....

Don't get me wrong, I am very skeptical of the various mainstream news outlets pumping out this common line that bitcoin's trade volume is like less than 10% of what is claimed, and actually, they don't even say bitcoin, exactly, it is some kind of amorphous claim about "crypto", whatever the fuck that is?  Furthermore, there seem to be some claims that the only valid volume are the trades that are processed through the orderbooks, and surely on the face, we should be able to recognize the bullshit angle to that kind of claim.

Otherwise, I agree with you that whatever is being used for information to reach these various conclusions are frequently incomplete.. and I suppose that is why we are batting it around here... and might even come up with some better analysis ourselves, perhaps?  That's not a given either.
Yeah because if this includes pairings of shitcoins to bitcoin then its all the fake pump and dumps and bot controlled trades. Not a big surprise there.

I would not define it as fake merely because the trading is done by bots or merely because alt coins are the pairs.

Some of that bot action is legitimate, especially if they are paying fees to trade.  Of course, if they are not paying fees, then there are questions of wash trading, which implies that those trades do not have much value except to make it appear that an exchange has more trade volume than it does.

Regarding alts, it can be legitimate too and even effect BTC volume especially if it is paired with BTC, but I could give any shits about altcoins trading amongst themselves, so I am largely objecting to an ongoing convoluting of what is actually affecting bitcoin price dynamics by some vague references to activities that are going on with alts, ICOs or whatever else is lumped into the analysis and claims bing made, that are then imputed to bitcoin, too while they were failing to engage in a proper BTC focus.   
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March 25, 2019, 02:33:21 AM

Would you be so kind as to enlighten me on slippage? In what way would it screw with trading?

I would assume the implication was that: if real volume be truly that large, then slippage should be much less than that experienced.
I understand the correlation between volume and slippage, but I'm not sure how exactly those contracts work as I've never used or read into them.

The particular trade that I found galling had me enter a stop loss at $xx93 (which was below a major support point).  The price fell through the support and the sell order executed at $xx20, which is $73 in slippage.

The most slippage I have previously experienced on breaking major support was $13 on Bitstamp at a much higher price (therefor far lower slippage in percentage terms).

This leads me to believe that either: (a) Bitmex has exceptionally poor liquidity or (b) their proprietary trading desk is front running trades or (c) they are deliberately discriminating against fish in the order book.

The net result is the same.

While there are some complexities around whether one uses the last, mark or index price as trigger, it really all comes out in the same place.  None of this should be impacted by the particular rules of the instrument, and this was not a liquidation (I have never been liquidated and don’t intend to start).

I have had a number of other trades on Bitmex where my slippage has been about 10x what I would expect.   Given that Bitmex supposedly has 10x the volume of Bitstamp and 10x liquidity, something is rotten in the State of Seychelles.  I would go so far as to say either they are front running their own customers or their organic volume is about 1% of what they claim.  

Makes sense. OR... maybe traders at Bitmex are *WAY* more prone to using leverage and stop loses which causes *HUGE* slippage due to "cascading" than Bitstamp traders. Think about it... it also makes some sense.

Something like this is what I was thinking too.  It may NOT cause as BIG of an effect to completely discount Hairy's criticism, but there could be some magnifying effect that happens with the use of leverage and margin trading that disproportionately causes the prices swings to be much greater.. and perhaps that would be because some BIGGER players (and it does not even have to be Bitmex, though logically they would seem to be the most likely suspect, because if some other BIGG players were doing it, then Bitmex would be able to verify what happened and develop ways to put a stop to it or at least ameliorate some of the effects) .... so yeah, the more that I write, through this thought process, the more I am coming over to Hairy's suspicions about the real cause, which is ultimately, way less liquidity than they claim to have...

I suppose that it would make a difference if it rises to 90% less liquidity or merely 50% less or some more innocent misrepresentation.  

Thr thing is we don't have enough information to reach a clear conclusion. Without it, there are several alternative plausible explanations. Who knows.....

Don't get me wrong, I am very skeptical of the various mainstream news outlets pumping out this common line that bitcoin's trade volume is like less than 10% of what is claimed, and actually, they don't even say bitcoin, exactly, it is some kind of amorphous claim about "crypto", whatever the fuck that is?  Furthermore, there seem to be some claims that the only valid volume are the trades that are processed through the orderbooks, and surely on the face, we should be able to recognize the bullshit angle to that kind of claim.

Otherwise, I agree with you that whatever is being used for information to reach these various conclusions are frequently incomplete.. and I suppose that is why we are batting it around here... and might even come up with some better analysis ourselves, perhaps?  That's not a given either.
Yeah because if this includes pairings of shitcoins to bitcoin then its all the fake pump and dumps and bot controlled trades. Not a big surprise there.

I would not define it as fake merely because the trading is done by bots or merely because alt coins are the pairs.

Some of that bot action is legitimate, especially if they are paying fees to trade.  Of course, if they are not paying fees, then there are questions of wash trading, which implies that those trades do not have much value except to make it appear that an exchange has more trade volume than it does.

Regarding alts, it can be legitimate too and even effect BTC volume especially if it is paired with BTC, but I could give any shits about altcoins trading amongst themselves, so I am largely objecting to an ongoing convoluting of what is actually affecting bitcoin price dynamics by some vague references to activities that are going on with alts, ICOs or whatever else is lumped into the analysis and claims bing made, that are then imputed to bitcoin, too while they were failing to engage in a proper BTC focus.   
I'm not talking your litecoins and dash here, I am talking your random bullshit ICO on a single random exchange that has 98% of the volume with 2% on discord otc. I have seen these coins having so much fake volume it's wild.
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March 25, 2019, 02:37:32 AM

The weekly has closed. The first weekly close above the MA20 since July.

my chart hasn't closed yet...and is trying to just eke out a 6th green candle

I agree with you that each of these latest green candles are just barely green.. each week an additional green, but only a little.

Regarding the number of weekly green candles on stamp, I show as closed one green, one red and then five green ones.  The current one is green, but who cares, the current one is only a few hours old.

What I am trying to say is that there appears to be 5 green weekly candles in a row that are closed - not 6.
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March 25, 2019, 02:43:48 AM

Would you be so kind as to enlighten me on slippage? In what way would it screw with trading?

I would assume the implication was that: if real volume be truly that large, then slippage should be much less than that experienced.
I understand the correlation between volume and slippage, but I'm not sure how exactly those contracts work as I've never used or read into them.

The particular trade that I found galling had me enter a stop loss at $xx93 (which was below a major support point).  The price fell through the support and the sell order executed at $xx20, which is $73 in slippage.

The most slippage I have previously experienced on breaking major support was $13 on Bitstamp at a much higher price (therefor far lower slippage in percentage terms).

This leads me to believe that either: (a) Bitmex has exceptionally poor liquidity or (b) their proprietary trading desk is front running trades or (c) they are deliberately discriminating against fish in the order book.

The net result is the same.

While there are some complexities around whether one uses the last, mark or index price as trigger, it really all comes out in the same place.  None of this should be impacted by the particular rules of the instrument, and this was not a liquidation (I have never been liquidated and don’t intend to start).

I have had a number of other trades on Bitmex where my slippage has been about 10x what I would expect.   Given that Bitmex supposedly has 10x the volume of Bitstamp and 10x liquidity, something is rotten in the State of Seychelles.  I would go so far as to say either they are front running their own customers or their organic volume is about 1% of what they claim.  

Makes sense. OR... maybe traders at Bitmex are *WAY* more prone to using leverage and stop loses which causes *HUGE* slippage due to "cascading" than Bitstamp traders. Think about it... it also makes some sense.

Something like this is what I was thinking too.  It may NOT cause as BIG of an effect to completely discount Hairy's criticism, but there could be some magnifying effect that happens with the use of leverage and margin trading that disproportionately causes the prices swings to be much greater.. and perhaps that would be because some BIGGER players (and it does not even have to be Bitmex, though logically they would seem to be the most likely suspect, because if some other BIGG players were doing it, then Bitmex would be able to verify what happened and develop ways to put a stop to it or at least ameliorate some of the effects) .... so yeah, the more that I write, through this thought process, the more I am coming over to Hairy's suspicions about the real cause, which is ultimately, way less liquidity than they claim to have...

I suppose that it would make a difference if it rises to 90% less liquidity or merely 50% less or some more innocent misrepresentation.  

Thr thing is we don't have enough information to reach a clear conclusion. Without it, there are several alternative plausible explanations. Who knows.....

Don't get me wrong, I am very skeptical of the various mainstream news outlets pumping out this common line that bitcoin's trade volume is like less than 10% of what is claimed, and actually, they don't even say bitcoin, exactly, it is some kind of amorphous claim about "crypto", whatever the fuck that is?  Furthermore, there seem to be some claims that the only valid volume are the trades that are processed through the orderbooks, and surely on the face, we should be able to recognize the bullshit angle to that kind of claim.

Otherwise, I agree with you that whatever is being used for information to reach these various conclusions are frequently incomplete.. and I suppose that is why we are batting it around here... and might even come up with some better analysis ourselves, perhaps?  That's not a given either.
Yeah because if this includes pairings of shitcoins to bitcoin then its all the fake pump and dumps and bot controlled trades. Not a big surprise there.

I would not define it as fake merely because the trading is done by bots or merely because alt coins are the pairs.

Some of that bot action is legitimate, especially if they are paying fees to trade.  Of course, if they are not paying fees, then there are questions of wash trading, which implies that those trades do not have much value except to make it appear that an exchange has more trade volume than it does.

Regarding alts, it can be legitimate too and even effect BTC volume especially if it is paired with BTC, but I could give any shits about altcoins trading amongst themselves, so I am largely objecting to an ongoing convoluting of what is actually affecting bitcoin price dynamics by some vague references to activities that are going on with alts, ICOs or whatever else is lumped into the analysis and claims bing made, that are then imputed to bitcoin, too while they were failing to engage in a proper BTC focus.   
I'm not talking your litecoins and dash here, I am talking your random bullshit ICO on a single random exchange that has 98% of the volume with 2% on discord otc. I have seen these coins having so much fake volume it's wild.

I guess I can kind of see your point, but if they are trading with actual BTC, then could still be honestly reflecting on BTC's trade volume... At least the initial acquisition of the coins with BTC.  Maybe ultimately we could just agree with bitserve that there is so much information that we do not know, even if we have some skepticisms about the reports that are being done in terms of their ultimate conclusions, their methodology in figuring out relevant facts and even their logic once they have some vague and alleged factual findings.
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March 25, 2019, 02:44:13 AM

~snip~  
I'm not talking your litecoins and dash here, I am talking your random bullshit ICO on a single random exchange that has 98% of the volume with 2% on discord otc. I have seen these coins having so much fake volume it's wild.

One can find such fake volume in Hotbit. you can add a couple of exchange too but hotbit comes in the top.
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March 25, 2019, 03:51:11 AM
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99 days into the new Baby Bull Market and all is well.  Cool

Tomorrow is a big day as we hit the big One Zero Zero.  Cheesy

Enjoy it while its young(that means accumulate as much as you can Wink), bc these days will fly by and before you know it our Bull will be full grown and striking fear in every Bears heart like this guy.

"Worlds Strongest Bull" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTU9Ww-dUcs
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March 25, 2019, 04:04:25 AM

bitcoin provides utility through its ability to permissionlessly transport value anywhere

100% Wrong.  It's impossible for something to qualify as money unless it qualifies as an actual non-perishable commodity beforehand and none of those can be transferred over a telephone cord.  "Bitcoins" are simply worthless timestamps; it's a fake commodity.  You're trying to push the fraudulent, Keynesian, Plato school of money that money can be a completely arbitrary, imaginary widget disconnected from the physical world.  Plato was a Keynesian statist and the jibberish you're pushing is inherently the exact same statist position in essence.

You're also pretending bitcoin was created by 'god' himself as some type of perfect, flawless creation, when it was created by a central planner human being just like in any communist country and it doesn't even work at all because transaction validators are designed to centralize.  The philosophy behind imaginary widgets posing as money is ALWAYS Keynesian central planning at it's core.  Just because it's designed to deflate instead of inflate doesn't mean it's not a Keynesian system.

Humans live in the physical world, not imaginary 'cyberspace', and the only thing that can be transferred over a phone line is extremely perishable digital data like a Steam video game that might hold some value temporarily through artificial scarcity, but doesn't qualify as money or a store of value.  Artificial scarcity is NOT scarcity.  Real scarcity can form a Schelling point, artificial scarcity can only form an endless stream of pump and dump scams while the last one is left to rot for the next one in perpetuity.
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March 25, 2019, 04:19:21 AM
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In the word "marriage",
you won't find the letter "I",
but you will find "us".

Trollgoossen's life in 2 years:



Kissless Virgin Roach has spent more time jealously ranting about another mans woman this year than he spent talking directly to any of the other 3.75 billion women on Earth in the last 10 years.  Wink

This is the kind of brilliant achiever that dumps his Bitcoins in 2015 to go all in on Silver Cheesy

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March 25, 2019, 04:21:26 AM
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bitcoin provides utility through its ability to permissionlessly transport value anywhere

100% Wrong.  It's impossible for something to qualify as money unless it qualifies as an actual non-perishable commodity beforehand and none of those can be transferred over a telephone cord.  

What the fuck are you talking about?  You seem to be assuming that there is no internet or at least two computers in the whole world to verify the transaction.  At this time, we have millions of computers... so snap back into the real world rather than your fantasy post-Armageddon world.  

So in the real world, if I want to buy bitcoins at point A then I do... there are are lot of methods to buy bitcoins.  Thereafter, I have the option to transfer the bitcoins to point B, and there are a wide variety of ways to transfer bitcoins, including in my brain.  Once I get to point B, then I can cash the bitcoins out, if I want.   Anything else need to be said?  I don't need to go over all of the options because they are going to vary in different locations and also the means of storing or transporting the BTC will vary too.


"Bitcoins" are simply worthless timestamps; it's a fake commodity.  

In about the past 9 years, bitcoin has had a market value.  I will grant you that the first year of bitcoin, there was not very much of a market value'; however, the market value has increased, so we are not merely talking about a timestamp, you dumb fuck.  You may have been legit in making that criticism/assessment of bitcoin in its first year, and even if bitcoin had stayed in a similar status, as it's first year for the next 9 years, but it did not.  Snap out of it.  Snap into reality, and that is bitcoin has a market value... currently a little below $4k.

You're trying to push the fraudulent, Keynesian, Plato school of money that money can be a completely arbitrary, imaginary widget disconnected from the physical world.  Plato was a Keynesian statist and the jibberish you're pushing is inherently the exact same statist position in essence.

I am not trying to push anything.  I am being descriptive, not prescriptive..   for the most part... although, for your own good, you probably should buy some and then maybe you will start to understand it better.  perhaps?  Are you capable?

You're also pretending bitcoin was created by 'god' himself as some type of perfect, flawless creation, when it was created by a central planner human being just like in any communist country and it doesn't even work at all because transaction validators are designed to centralize.  The philosophy behind imaginary widgets posing as money is ALWAYS Keynesian central planning at it's core.  Just because it's designed to deflate instead of inflate doesn't mean it's not a Keynesian system.

You are making shit up... with dumb nonsense.  Sounds good in theory, but you seem to be talking about something other than bitcoin.

Humans live in the physical world, not imaginary 'cyberspace', and the only thing that can be transferred over a phone line is extremely perishable digital data like a Steam video game that might hold some value temporarily through artificial scarcity, but doesn't qualify as money or a store of value.

Again.. gobbledy gook.  Verification of a bitcoin transaction is transported in a variety of ways.. including over a phone line to the extent an internet connection is accomplished in that way... but how it relates to your claim that bitcoin does not have value because it lacks sufficient physicality is beyond me.  

Maybe you should take your emergency proclamation(s) to some other place because the vast majority of peeps here don't give a shit about your nonsense, baseless and overly repeated fantasy fearmongering(s).
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March 25, 2019, 04:26:40 AM

JayJuanGoyim, your Mexican brain is not finely tuned enough to be able to comprehend any of these concepts.  There is no point discussing these topics with you.  There are Youtube videos of swarms of Mexicans that don't even know who Adolf Hitler is for God's sake.
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March 25, 2019, 04:28:22 AM

fucks sake Jay
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March 25, 2019, 04:36:07 AM

Interesting stat: Belgium has a very high divorce rate (70%).

Nothing wrong with divorce.

True, but it won't add years to your life (in most cases) and would not make you richer (on paper) as well.
Guys would be limited in children visitation rights (and, yes, in more than 90% cases children stay with mom).
It's all theoretical, as I never divorced.


Which of these life phases are you up to? The marriage phase of your life, or the having kids phase?





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March 25, 2019, 04:51:01 AM

If you wanna say "Hi" to CSW, he's here :

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5120026

To bad mods already deleted the thread..

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March 25, 2019, 05:28:28 AM

Interesting stat: Belgium has a very high divorce rate (70%).

Nothing wrong with divorce.

True, but it won't add years to your life (in most cases) and would not make you richer (on paper) as well.
Guys would be limited in children visitation rights (and, yes, in more than 90% cases children stay with mom).
It's all theoretical, as I never divorced.


Which of these life phases are you up to? The marriage phase of your life, or the having kids phase?






Everything will be under control when we have some bitcoins. Cheesy
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March 25, 2019, 05:31:47 AM

Meanwhile, BCH's fans are like.  Grin Grin


https://twitter.com/DJThistle01/status/1110038837126848513
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March 25, 2019, 05:35:31 AM

Beautiful green shoots

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March 25, 2019, 05:51:22 AM

Everything will be under control when we have some bitcoins. Cheesy

Don't "we" already have "some bitcoins"?  Arguably enough for UP?

In other words, "we" have been in these sub $6k prices for nearly 4.5 months, and maybe "we" will be here for a few more months.....?  Gosh, as I type, I consider that "we" could be in sub-$6k territories for more than another year... but surely better to go up... even though it seems that "we" should still have enough time to buy a bit more coins, in case "we" feel that we don't have enough.

I guess that my punchline of this post, is that buying BTC under $6k remains a pretty decent value... even while I cannot really se any reason to rush purchases, yet... I suppose baby FOMO won't kick in until about the supra $10k area, and higher level FOMOs will kick in at $17,500 and $23k-ish?
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March 25, 2019, 06:40:55 AM

Everything will be under control when we have some bitcoins. Cheesy

Don't "we" already have "some bitcoins"?  Arguably enough for UP?

In other words, "we" have been in these sub $6k prices for nearly 4.5 months, and maybe "we" will be here for a few more months.....?  Gosh, as I type, I consider that "we" could be in sub-$6k territories for more than another year... but surely better to go up... even though it seems that "we" should still have enough time to buy a bit more coins, in case "we" feel that we don't have enough.

I guess that my punchline of this post, is that buying BTC under $6k remains a pretty decent value... even while I cannot really se any reason to rush purchases, yet... I suppose baby FOMO won't kick in until about the supra $10k area, and higher level FOMOs will kick in at $17,500 and $23k-ish?
Its just for the people who said everything is problem in their life.

Honestly I don't have much bitcoin under my wallet,I did sold them in 2017 for the good profits after that lot of issues here as well but now again starts to buy the bitcoins and hopefully I will buy enough before the prices shoot up.
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March 25, 2019, 06:49:22 AM

Everything will be under control when we have some bitcoins. Cheesy

Don't "we" already have "some bitcoins"?  Arguably enough for UP?

In other words, "we" have been in these sub $6k prices for nearly 4.5 months, and maybe "we" will be here for a few more months.....?  Gosh, as I type, I consider that "we" could be in sub-$6k territories for more than another year... but surely better to go up... even though it seems that "we" should still have enough time to buy a bit more coins, in case "we" feel that we don't have enough.

I guess that my punchline of this post, is that buying BTC under $6k remains a pretty decent value... even while I cannot really se any reason to rush purchases, yet... I suppose baby FOMO won't kick in until about the supra $10k area, and higher level FOMOs will kick in at $17,500 and $23k-ish?
Its just for the people who said everything is problem in their life.

Honestly I don't have much bitcoin under my wallet,I did sold them in 2017 for the good profits after that lot of issues here as well but now again starts to buy the bitcoins and hopefully I will buy enough before the prices shoot up.


O.k.  Seems like you may have done decently well then because there can be a lot of issues figuring out when exactly to sell and how much.  I personally have a philosophy of selling only a small fraction of my coin, just for a kind of volatility insurance, so I don't really try to guess about the extent to which BTC prices might be in a bubble or not.  I like my system, so I am not sure about any plan to change my approach.

I would actually have been more nervous if I would have sold a larger portion of my stash, then at various price points I would not have been sure about when to buy back and probably felt more stress at each of the levels that I bought back more than I should have, and then the BTC price drops more.. but yeah, in the end, if you are able to sell some near the top and then buy near the bottom, you surely don't have to get those numbers exactly right in order to profit from the BIG BTC price moves.
JSRAW
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March 25, 2019, 07:29:12 AM
Last edit: March 25, 2019, 08:00:27 AM by JSRAW

@zhekinsp you sound exactly like me except I already managed to increase my BTC stash by almost 1.5x from my starting point.

and I have no intention to stop here, still halfway to my @fuckyoucoiner status.

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