Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Phil_S]

That's it folks, 12800 will be the new 6400.

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[Lambie Slayer]

Does anyone besides Tone and Tyler still think we are in a Bear Market?  

I have been surprised by the power of the recent surge with so much time before the halvening, still think we are due for some serious pull backs in the near future, but surely no one can deny with a straight face that the Bull is upon us.

@JJG, Id like an update on your certainty of the Bull in percent terms kind sir. I remember a while back at a much lower price you stated 51 percent certainty. Hopefully you are in the 90's now

More or less I think that you are asking about the odds that the "bottom is in" for this cycle, and that bottom is the $3,122 price from mid-December 2018 (seems so long ago, but of course, not as long as it seems).

So yeah, I believe that the last time that I mentioned anything related to whether the bottom was in, was a couple of weeks ago, when we were still in the sub $9k-ish... and in that context, I was attempting to suggest to 48 that he might want to just pay hairy for the bottom is in prediction, and I think that I suggested that the odds were quite less than 40%.. and maybe even more realistically in the sub 33% arena.

Currently, I would say that we might even be in the sub 20% arena.. and perhaps 25% if we are trying to be charitable to bears.  90% does seem a bit too high of an assignment currently, but we are likely 90% likely to not go below $1k or maybe $2k, but even that could be pushing it a bit to assert that level of certainty towards something that could be within the power of some rich folks, banks and or governments to update unite forces in an attempt to achieve (though again, seemingly unlikely - in the sub 25% and maybe more realistically in the sub 20% - to get any kind of event (or set of events including FUD spreading) that could even bring BTC prices to new lows, currently when there is decently ongoing UP momentum).

Edit:
Furthermore, this out of control baby bull BTC seems to be growing up too damned fast for his own good, and likely needs a bit of a spanking.... but none of us really know how to tame this bad boy... instead he is trampling all over the clowns in the stadium... and seeming to be a wwwwwweeeeeeeeeee bit pissed off about his upbringing.       Sucks to be a bullpen clown, these days..... Wwwweeeeeeeeee.

I like your probabilities(optimistic but reasonable), even if I am higher in the 90 percent(optimistic perhaps to a fault) plus range in terms of certainty that the bottom is in. The baby bull has grown faster than foreseen due to the Fed printing so much fiat steroids and infusing them into his food and water supply.

I still expect a major correction back into the 5-7k range and I believe if this happens then the fall will be so large that bears and weak hands will start calling for a new low to materialize before the halving. Even if these prices occur I will be over 90 percent sure imo that the bottom is in. I have more fiat ready to buy such a correction, but as Im over 90 percent net worth invested I don't care if it never happens and we march straight to 100k If 3 months pass by without significant correction then I will probably just deploy the fiat and scoop up some more coin regardless of price.


@Central Bankers: We know you read this thread so listen up! You wont get one precious coin from me at sub 50k prices so stop calling my cell and pretending to be Microsoft technicians alerting me to a virus. I know who you are and what you really want

[AlcoHoDL]

That's it folks, 12800 will be the new 6400.

As I'm a power-of-two junkie, I second that.

Onwards to $25600 and towards $102400 (WO Party), and beyond...

[ProfTP]

That's it folks, 12800 will be the new 6400.

As I'm a power-of-two junkie, I second that.

Onwards to $25600 and towards $102400 (WO Party), and beyond...

if we play the double price in half of the days we will get to 100k in the beginning of August

25,6k at about 20th of July
51,2k at about 2nd of August
102,4k at about 8th of August


SUMMER OF PUMP 2019

[600watt]

well. time to go to sleep. nice to know that when i wake up tomorrow price can be at any point between 10k and 14k

if it would be over 12k, i´d smile 


good night you fuckers.

ok, did smile when woke up. 


bleeding slowly into the $9k-11k area (several weeks), finding a solid weekly higher low there would be ideal.

of course i only write this because i panic sold 2% of my stash last night. 

[jbreher]

I've read the posts about SF. I've never been to the US, and will come in a few months, for a wedding...in San Francisco. I'm all excited now !

Well, I guess it's not exactly _everywhere_. Been here a couplea days this time, none seen. Thankfully.

Though what really puzzles me is the car home favleas in Palo Alto. WTF is that all about?

[fillippone]

If any of you is still  in doubt why this Bitcoin Ramp:

https://www.ccn.com/crypto/grayscale-hits-3-billion-assets-bitcoin-price-rages-on/2019/06/27/

Grayscale reported in May that hedge funds went on a bitcoin buying spree. In the first quarter of 2019, hedge fund inflows into Grayscale’s products shot up to $24 million as compared to just $1 million in Q4 2018. The firm also added that 56% of its total investments during the quarter were driven by hedge fund inflows, leading to a 42% quarter-over-quarter jump in the firm’s total inflows.

Grayscale’s publicly-quoted Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the hedge fund inflows. The product accounted for nearly $2.85 billion of the firm’s total assets under management according to the latest report.

[wayna]

Guys, of course it's not feasible to pump the price without having any drop.

Now I am curious to see whether this pump was a just a bull game or it will stabilize the price to a new low.

This market is crazy!

[RivAngE]

Margin longs are getting rekt'd ! whoooohoooo !
I would wish no one was trading on margin and instead use real, existing coins instead of theoretical ones.

[Globb0]

OT OH!   Go to log on this morning see what's the damage?



My 2fa code was 666 something.   Is crypto evil now?

[600watt]

OT OH!   Go to log on this morning see what's the damage?



My 2fa code was 666 something.   Is crypto evil now?

what haunts me much more are those wallet seed list words like

"loss"
"zero"
"evil"
"hole"
"empty"
"rat"
"poison"
"over"
"finish"
...

[moseich]

In January of this year, I managed to predict a bitcoin price of $10,000.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5090403.0
Many readers thought it was a joke!
It is very interesting, as it is now do you feel about my method Bitcoins assessment?
Has your opinion changed?
Is it worth counting the bitcoin market price with my approach at the moment?
https://medium.com/@igormoseich/cost-of-the-bitcoin-a2d5d360a8bf

[jonoiv]

looks like the begining of operation alt sacrifice. 

[JayJuanGee]

well

we ain't seen the mayor yet...

I wonder?

if

He may have sold too many coins, so still depressed, possibly?

[realsteelboy]

looks like the begining of operation alt sacrifice. 

Ouch

[JayJuanGee]

Did we just lose 1k in 5 minutes ?

More

Is this the typical "someone sold a lot because it went up"? Or is this the typical "someone sold a lot to trigger stop-losses and buy it back later"? Or is this going to trigger my (wife's) Q2 prediction of $7800?

Hahahahahaha

Blame your inner bear on your wife... 

Well, to be fair, she predicted $7800 for Q1. I'm the one who movedo it over to Q2.
About 6 weeks into Q2 she was right for quite a long time. So with some calibration, she should be able to make a perfect prediction for Q3 if I ask her to make a prediction for mid November

When your finalizing your recalibration efforts, try a bit of the below pic to make sure that the two of you are in better sync this time around.




hahahahahahahaha

A BIG image helps to capture the "beauty" (rather than scariness) of the whole process.

 

[Last of the V8s]

seriously though Gandalf, get a grip
let's stay above 12k

[JayJuanGee]

Does anyone besides Tone and Tyler still think we are in a Bear Market?  

I have been surprised by the power of the recent surge with so much time before the halvening, still think we are due for some serious pull backs in the near future, but surely no one can deny with a straight face that the Bull is upon us.

@JJG, Id like an update on your certainty of the Bull in percent terms kind sir. I remember a while back at a much lower price you stated 51 percent certainty. Hopefully you are in the 90's now

More or less I think that you are asking about the odds that the "bottom is in" for this cycle, and that bottom is the $3,122 price from mid-December 2018 (seems so long ago, but of course, not as long as it seems).

So yeah, I believe that the last time that I mentioned anything related to whether the bottom was in, was a couple of weeks ago, when we were still in the sub $9k-ish... and in that context, I was attempting to suggest to 48 that he might want to just pay hairy for the bottom is in prediction, and I think that I suggested that the odds were quite less than 40%.. and maybe even more realistically in the sub 33% arena.

Currently, I would say that we might even be in the sub 20% arena.. and perhaps 25% if we are trying to be charitable to bears.  90% does seem a bit too high of an assignment currently, but we are likely 90% likely to not go below $1k or maybe $2k, but even that could be pushing it a bit to assert that level of certainty towards something that could be within the power of some rich folks, banks and or governments to update unite forces in an attempt to achieve (though again, seemingly unlikely - in the sub 25% and maybe more realistically in the sub 20% - to get any kind of event (or set of events including FUD spreading) that could even bring BTC prices to new lows, currently when there is decently ongoing UP momentum).

Edit:
Furthermore, this out of control baby bull BTC seems to be growing up too damned fast for his own good, and likely needs a bit of a spanking.... but none of us really know how to tame this bad boy... instead he is trampling all over the clowns in the stadium... and seeming to be a wwwwwweeeeeeeeeee bit pissed off about his upbringing.       Sucks to be a bullpen clown, these days..... Wwwweeeeeeeeee.

I like your probabilities(optimistic but reasonable), even if I am higher in the 90 percent(optimistic perhaps to a fault) plus range in terms of certainty that the bottom is in. The baby bull has grown faster than foreseen due to the Fed printing so much fiat steroids and infusing them into his food and water supply.

I still expect a major correction back into the 5-7k range and I believe if this happens then the fall will be so large that bears and weak hands will start calling for a new low to materialize before the halving. Even if these prices occur I will be over 90 percent sure imo that the bottom is in. I have more fiat ready to buy such a correction, but as Im over 90 percent net worth invested I don't care if it never happens and we march straight to 100k If 3 months pass by without significant correction then I will probably just deploy the fiat and scoop up some more coin regardless of price.


@Central Bankers: We know you read this thread so listen up! You wont get one precious coin from me at sub 50k prices so stop calling my cell and pretending to be Microsoft technicians alerting me to a virus. I know who you are and what you really want

Gosh.. sub $7k would surely be pushing it, so I am not sure why you are even thinking $5k, but hey think what you like. 


Even getting down to $7k would be nearing a 50% correction from our current local top which was $13,880, and geez, odds of $7k could not be much better than 50% at this time.

I hate to elaborate too much on a variety of up and down short-term scenarios, because how I play my BTC does not change very much at all based on my expectations of short term cycles..

In regards to BTC, I just behave like a kind of robot by selling small amounts on the way up and buying on the way down (with proceeds from my sales and I might throw in a bit of dollar cost averaging from time to time, too), so yeah if we never go back down, then I just have a bunch of fiat which is not necessarily a bad thing to have - given that only about less than 1% of the world's population even has any kind of investment in BTC, the vast majority of folks out there in the real world will accept fiat for payment for goods and services. 

Not a bad thing to spend a bit of fiat, here and there once you have already decently established the size of your BTC stash to a sufficient level that it is pretty much going to last you for the rest of your life so long as BTC tends towards long term up (which is a kind of long term presumption of mine)... ... and currently, I kind of have $5k as my lower boundary of dire circumstances in terms of BTC hovering at or below $5k for too long.. yeah I am still profitable at $5k, but really I would prefer NOT to hang out there, so I don't want to be spending too much time close to $5k and worse yet to be spending any considerable time below $5k would not be fun at all for me in terms of my expectations of future preference for richie  (like a minimum of at least 5x richie rather than smaller amounts of richie.. which would not be the end of the world, just not preferable)....

So I guess I am spoiled in that regard with my supra $5k expectations for the future of BTC and readiness to move into BTC's future... again hopefully supra $5k from here on out.. even though I know, no guarantees but that is my current minimum expectations (or would it be worse case scenarios?) hope.  Which largely means that if my expectations are NOT too high, then there are almost certain odds that they are going to be met... still I repeat, 75% to 80% odds that the bottom (of $3,122) is in, and we are not having NO lower bottoms than that.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Morning gentlemen!
Observing $12,150, looks like we’re going sub $12,000. You can look at this in two ways.

1.) Healthy correction, we were going too high, too fast. A correction is good, weak hands & profit seekers can fuck off, the real players can buy the dip as we consolidate & wait patiently until the halving & what it usually brings.

2.) We went too too high, too fast. People are selling, weak hands losing their balls & we’re going back to anything from $6,000 - $8,000.

[Last of the V8s]

I just behave like a kind of robot