Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Let me tell you of the impossible dream.

A support line that runs all the way back to the dawn of time.  At $2.22 at the bottom of the crash in November 2011.  A support line that held us up during the depths of the cryptowinter.

Weekly view of the support line



Daily view of the support line



A support line that, when finally broken in November 2018, heralded the final throes of the 2018 bear market.  See first yellow circle where it was broken.



But this support line, which was believed to be lost forever as it soared off into the stratosphere, was unexpectedly touched on June 22 and 23 2019.



We then soared above it on June 26 and June 27.  Surely we had soared too high, too fast?  Surely this was impossible?



Today the support line sits around $11,445.  

If we can recover $11,445 and against all odds, hold above this line, this would represent an uninterrupted logarithmic bull market all the way back to 2011.  Surely this is the impossible dream?  This is why I am currently bearish.  But if we break and hold above, then all bets are off.

[HairyMaclairy]

For context, here is my post on November 16 2018 when we broke downwards through the same long term trend line. Now we have broken upwards back through it, something I thought would never happen. 

Managed to get back to a computer instead of trying to chart on a mobile phone.  And I don't really like what I see.  

Overview back to 2012 showing build of long term trend line from cryptowinter (weekly)


Overview of 2017 / 2018 showing build of 2017 support line plus 2017 downward trend line (daily)


Zoomed in on daily.  Showing we have fallen through a hole beneath three key trend lines


4 hour view showing our current position in the hole


1 hour view showing our current failure to break out of the hole

[Biodom]

If we can recover and hold above this line, this would represent an uninterrupted logarithmic bull market all the way back to 2011.  Surely this is the impossible dream?  This is why I am currently bearish.  But if we break and hold above, then all bets are off.

Nice graphs and interesting interpretation.
Why you call it "uninterrrupted", though?  
We seemed to plunge below the line last winter and only recently recovered only to dip just a bit below.

[HairyMaclairy]

Fair enough.  Perhaps uninterrupted is the wrong word.  But "straight line logarithmic" doesn't sound any better.  There is probably a better term.

[Biodom]

Fair enough.  Perhaps uninterrupted is the wrong word.  But "straight line logarithmic" doesn't sound any better.  There is probably a better term.

The best fit for bitcoin prices during 2011-2019 is represented by a logarithmic curve with a current time value of 11445?

[eddie13]

I haven't been trading but I need some of this action..

100k sat says we have a new ATH before we break down through $10k..
First taker gets it..

edit: eherm I mean all year high, like $13,764..

[JayJuanGee]

I haven't been trading but I need some of this action..

100k sat says we have a new ATH before we break down through $10k..
First taker gets it..

edit: eherm I mean all year high, like $13,764..

That seems like a fair bet.

I am sure someone would be more than willing to take you up on the bet, and you will likely lose the bet fairly quickly (within a few days)... hahahahahaha

Anyhow, in this thread, we usually use stamp for these kinds of price measuring matters.  The current yearly high on stamp is $13,880.


You might even lose the bet before you are able to finalize its terms, exactly.   

[eddie13]

I haven't been trading but I need some of this action..

100k sat says we have a new ATH before we break down through $10k..
First taker gets it..

edit: eherm I mean all year high, like $13,764..

That seems like a fair bet.

I am sure someone would be more than willing to take you up on the bet, and you will likely lose the bet fairly quickly (within a few days)... hahahahahaha

Anyhow, in this thread, we usually use stamp for these kinds of price measuring matters.  The current yearly high on stamp is $13,880.


You might even lose the bet before you are able to finalize its terms, exactly.  

Your right.. 10k might be the perfect bear trap just to break it a little..

Ok yeah nevermind.. So much gloom in this thread and I just feel like 10k is good to hold..

[JayJuanGee]

I haven't been trading but I need some of this action..

100k sat says we have a new ATH before we break down through $10k..
First taker gets it..

edit: eherm I mean all year high, like $13,764..

That seems like a fair bet.

I am sure someone would be more than willing to take you up on the bet, and you will likely lose the bet fairly quickly (within a few days)... hahahahahaha

Anyhow, in this thread, we usually use stamp for these kinds of price measuring matters.  The current yearly high on stamp is $13,880.


You might even lose the bet before you are able to finalize its terms, exactly.  

Your right.. 10k might be the perfect bear trap just to break it a little..

Probably a better bet that would be closer to 50/50 odds would be for you to take $9k side of such a similar bet, but if you want to be more aggressive and titillating in your bet terms, then so be it, then you might frame your side of the bet as $9,800, but I still believe that is a loser bet of less than 50/50 odds - but hey, we should have differing views about these kinds of things, that's for sure.  That's part of the reason that BTC's price has so much volatility, because people have differing views of its value and also its price direction (short-term and long-term).

[lightfoot]

I can't believe people are depressed. 10k-11k is just fine for the moment.

[JayJuanGee]

I can't believe people are depressed. 10k-11k is just fine for the moment.

I'm not depressed, but maybe I am not "people?"

Been buying like a mad man.. these kinds of dramatic up and down times are times to make more money (namely bitcoins)

[infofront]

You're an animal, Jay

[Paashaas]

I can't believe people are depressed. 10k-11k is just fine for the moment.

Those people are to short-sighted, they already forgot the recent 250% rise...

[Paashaas]

Most photographed places on earth.


https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1144304390792253441

[JayJuanGee]

You're an animal, Jay

Hey, I don't claim to be any kind of technical analysis afficionado, so I don't put a lot of weight into any analysis that attempts too much about what BTC price "has to do".

On the other hand, I also don't put a lot of weight into various explanations that try to suggest that Bitcoin's price movement comes from various news events, so it kind of irritates me when folks try to attribute BTC's price movement to some news event and to say that caused BTC's price to do X, when it was more likely that BTC's price was moving in that direction anyhow, whether the news event happened or not.  And, the news may have helped to push or exacerbated the price move, but it did not cause it.

Anyhow, having said all that, I recall several BTC price corrections between late 2015 and late 2017.

I am referring to late 2015 to late 2017 as a comparison because ultimately we later concluded that such late 2015 to late 2017 period was a bull market, yet we experienced a large number of BTC price corrections during that period - and frequently a BTC price correction might have three legs down before it would be ready to move back up.  

Of course, three legs of down is not any kind of condition precedent for up, but three legs do happen quite frequently during corrections, and really does anyone believe that our move down from $13,880 to $10,332 (about 25%) has been anymore than one leg of a correction?  Maybe we could recognize two legs of correction from that price move, but I would still tentative conclude that one or two more legs are within reason of happening even if we have already gotten about 25% correction out of this correction .. especially given the amount of UP that we experienced since April 1, but even moreso the slope of the up curve in the past week or two.

TLDR:  There are no givens, you animals.    

[nutildah]

Most photographed places on earth.


https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1144304390792253441

Pretty cool. I just spent the last 8 minutes looking at this.

- There's a dark hole in the U.S. around South Dakota
- Tibet must be boring AF
- The entirety of Japan is bright yellow
- Europeans also take entirely too many photos

[VB1001]

I would like to publish this month's statistics higher.

So far we have 5 months increasing in green.

There are no grounds for complaints.

I'm glad to see +/-11000 this morning.

StrongHats

Good morning WO,s

[fillippone]

GOOD MORNING WO!
Observing 10,977

Glad we passed the night without too much damage!

Most photographed places on earth.


https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1144304390792253441

Pretty cool. I just spent the last 8 minutes looking at this.

- There's a dark hole in the U.S. around South Dakota
- Tibet must be boring AF
- The entirety of Japan is bright yellow
- Europeans also take entirely too many photos

Always relevant XKCD strip:
https://xkcd.com/1138/

[VB1001]

In WO there are 2 groups:

WO stronghats and weakhands.

Where do you think to put me?

You know perfectly to which group you belong.

[nanobtc]

I see dead people. Er, I mean roach, and other failed trolls. I think, it's all ignored.

Stand up WO peeps, even if you think you do not like country muzak, consider this ode to your boss, in the upcoming years. From 1980, Johnny Paycheck.

Take this job, and shove it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPrSVkTRb24